PDA

View Full Version : Strength of the upcomming draft...


Randar68
05-20-2004, 01:59 PM
Seeing as how the draft is less than 3 weeks away, I figure it's time to start talking about it.

The Sox have 6 picks in the first 2 rounds:
1st round: 18th pick
Sandwich: 34th and 38th picks
2nd round: 53rd, 59th, and 69th picks

With 6 of the first 70 picks, they should have a lot of opportunities to address weak positions in the system. The weakest organizational position is probably C. You can never have too many arms, so pitching is a premium, and the Sox are a bit short in RH'd pitching, while relatively deep at the lower levels in LH pitching. 3rd base and 1st base are also pretty weak, and you can never have too many SS's either. OF is a definite area of strength.

IMO, ranking positional needs:
1) C
2) 3B
3) 1B
4) SS/2B
5) OF

The strength of this draft is undoubtedly in the college pitchers, with almost all of the top candidates as Jr's. With all these picks, the Sox will be looking for players who will not be overly expensive to sign (save maybe 2-sport athletes allowing them to spread the bonus out over 5 years, someone like 3B Josh Fields might be a likely 1st round target if they go positional)

Cross any Boras client off your lists now. College Sr's or college Jr's and HS players eager to go pro are going to be the preferential targets for the Sox.

Overall, the position players are weaker than most years, but there are a couple of positions where it is a deep draft, at least at the top, namely, C and SS. No less than 10 of the top 50 positional prospects are catchers, so the Sox will have a golden opportunity to take a couple of catchers in the first 3 rounds and help rebuild the system depth at that position.

Another thing that has been discussed, is with the growing tactic of avoiding drafting HS pitchers, aka. the spread of Beane and his disciples, HS pitchers are going to offer some better-than-previous value in the 2nd and 3rd round particularly.


Thoughts... guys you want to see the Sox take... needs?

Discuss!

Hangar18
05-20-2004, 02:02 PM
Thanks Randar for posting this .......... I was getting curious
about the draft also .......

thecell
05-20-2004, 02:24 PM
If it's not too much trouble, can you explain the sandwich round? How many picks are there? Are these the picks teams get when they lose a FA? etc. Thanks!

Fungo
05-20-2004, 02:28 PM
You are correct, this years draft is thin on hitters. I'd like to see the Sox go after some power RHP. Eric Beattie, a RHP out of the University of Tampa might be a sleeper pick and will most likely be there when the Sox pick, although I'm not sure he would be worth a 1st round pick. I don't know if he'll last until their second pick. U of Tampa is a division II school, but plays in the hands down best conference in D-II, the Sunshine State Conference. He also performed very well in the Cape Cod league this past summer, which is the elite summer program for college kids. Catcher, as Randar suggested, is also a point of concern and should be addressed.

SEALgep
05-20-2004, 02:32 PM
I agree with up the middle being the biggest preference for our club, meaning catcher, SS, and second in particular. There are going to be some good pitchers available as well, which is nothing new I suppose, but it seems like more of a pitching draft to me this year, which I could certainly be wrong about. With that said, I wouldn't mind the first pick being a good right handed pitcher. We'll see, but we've been drafting well the last couple years IMO, so I'm inclined to just sit back and relax and see who they bring in. It's the 6th of June isn't it? Futuresox.com breaks down the draft pretty well if people are looking for info after the draft takes place.

Fungo
05-20-2004, 02:32 PM
Originally posted by thecell
If it's not too much trouble, can you explain the sandwich round? How many picks are there? Are these the picks teams get when they lose a FA? etc. Thanks!

Sandwich picks are picks between the first and second rounds based on players who have signed a contract with a new club as a Major League free agent. I would guess our sandwich picks this year are for the loss of Colon and Gordon.

joecrede
05-20-2004, 02:37 PM
From everything I've read about the upcoming draft, though he's rated around the 40th best prospect, I'd like to see the Sox consider taking ASU SS Dustin Pedroia with the 18th pick.

He projects as a top of the order hitter with excellent plate discipline. (He and Reed could make for a devestating combination.) He lacks ideal range at short, but makes every play. He'd be an easy sign @ 18 and should progress quicly through the system.

Pedroia (http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewFeaturedAmateurProfile.do?featuredAmateurPlaye rId=207&draftId=2)

As far as college pitchers @ 18, South Carolina pitcher,Billy Buckner (http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewFeaturedAmateurProfile.do?featuredAmateurPlaye rId=214&draftId=2) (no relation) wouldn't be a bad choice.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 02:38 PM
Originally posted by thecell
If it's not too much trouble, can you explain the sandwich round? How many picks are there? Are these the picks teams get when they lose a FA? etc. Thanks!

You are correct. Between the first and second round, compensatory picks for losing Type A and B FA's are given. They are chosen based on the rankings of value among all FA's each year as determined by the Elias Sports Beareau.

thecell
05-20-2004, 02:39 PM
Originally posted by Fungo


Sandwich picks are picks between the first and second rounds based on players who have signed a contract with a new club as a Major League free agent. I would guess our sandwich picks this year are for the loss of Colon and Gordon.


Originally posted by Randar68


You are correct. Between the first and second round, compensatory picks for losing Type A and B FA's are given. They are chosen based on the rankings of value among all FA's each year as determined by the Elias Sports Beareau.


Excellent, thanks! :gulp:

SEALgep
05-20-2004, 02:42 PM
Originally posted by joecrede
From everything I've read about the upcoming draft, though he's rated around the 40th best prospect, I'd like to see the Sox consider taking ASU SS Dustin Pedroia with the 18th pick.

He projects as a top of the order hitter with excellent plate discipline. (He and Reed could make for a devestating combination.) He lacks ideal range at short, but makes every play. He'd be an easy sign @ 18 and should progress quicly through the system.

Pedroia (http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewFeaturedAmateurProfile.do?featuredAmateurPlaye rId=207&draftId=2)

As far as college pitchers @ 18, South Carolina pitcher,Billy Buckner (http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewFeaturedAmateurProfile.do?featuredAmateurPlaye rId=214&draftId=2) (no relation) wouldn't be a bad choice. Wouldn't mind getting him, especially with the plate discipline, but personally, I'd be hesitant using the 18th pick on him.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 02:45 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
Wouldn't mind getting him, especially with the plate discipline, but personally, I'd be hesitant using the 18th pick on him.

Depending on there being a late 1st round run on position players, I would lean towards targeting him with a Sandwich pick or their first 2nd round pick. That's a big reach to take him at #18.

If Josh Fields is there at 18, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I would take any of Neil Walker, Josh Fields or Mike Ferris at #18 if I was determined to go positional...

Fungo
05-20-2004, 02:52 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
I would take any of Neil Walker, Josh Fields or Mike Ferris at #18 if I was determined to go positional...

Does taking a HS catcher scare you at all? Last on I can think of the Sox drafting in the first round was Mark Johnson. He's supposedly got all the tools and a switch hitter to boot.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 03:05 PM
Originally posted by Fungo
Does taking a HS catcher scare you at all? Last on I can think of the Sox drafting in the first round was Mark Johnson. He's supposedly got all the tools and a switch hitter to boot.

Scare me? Yeah, a little, but no more really than taking a HS pitcher at #18. Catcher is a tough position, and barring a late slide, I doubt he'd drop to the Sox. The catcher position is riddled with more intangibles than any other position in baseball. The mental aspect of handling a staff and being a leader, the work ethic required to do that and hit as well...

With any catcher, you'd have to be pretty damned convinced. The mental aspect is why so many HS catchers never make it. That said, if the Sox are convinced he has all the tools behind the plate to stick at the position, yeah, I'd be all for them taking him.

Walker is rated among the top 3 HS players for pure hitter, power, and strike-zone judgment by BA. His arm may be a tad suspect, but he is the clear-cut best HS C in the draft.

I like Kurt Suzuki out of CS-Fullerton, but he'd be a 2nd round pick IMO if he fell to their 53rd or later picks...

SEALgep
05-20-2004, 03:13 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Scare me? Yeah, a little, but no more really than taking a HS pitcher at #18. Catcher is a tough position, and barring a late slide, I doubt he'd drop to the Sox. The catcher position is riddled with more intangibles than any other position in baseball. The mental aspect of handling a staff and being a leader, the work ethic required to do that and hit as well...

With any catcher, you'd have to be pretty damned convinced. The mental aspect is why so many HS catchers never make it. That said, if the Sox are convinced he has all the tools behind the plate to stick at the position, yeah, I'd be all for them taking him.

Walker is rated among the top 3 HS players for pure hitter, power, and strike-zone judgment by BA. His arm may be a tad suspect, but he is the clear-cut best HS C in the draft.

I like Kurt Suzuki out of CS-Fullerton, but he'd be a 2nd round pick IMO if he fell to their 53rd or later picks... Wouldn't you rather take an arm with the 18th pick? There are going to be plenty of real good college arms, and highschool too for that matter, who are going to be available at that pick. Not saying a good catcher isn't needed, but unless he has Mauer comparisons, I'd just assume taking one in the second round and taking an above average arm first. That's me though, and I haven't seen the scouting on all these kids, so I'm not about to say my opinion is the advice the Sox should take.

joecrede
05-20-2004, 03:21 PM
What is the best strategy for the Sox to use in the draft? I really liked what they did last year. Getting a guy in the 1st round for "slot" money and taking a guy in the 2nd round who slipped and was a tougher sign, using money saved on the 1st and 3rd selections to make a solid offer for a 2nd round pick.

You can almost be assured that someone will slip to the 34th pick because of signabillity issues. I advocate using the same strategy and that's where a guy like Pedroia comes in. I'm sure he'd go for a pre-draft deal, then just sit and wait to see who falls to 34.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 03:22 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
Wouldn't you rather take an arm with the 18th pick? There are going to be plenty of real good college arms, and highschool too for that matter, who are going to be available at that pick. Not saying a good catcher isn't needed, but unless he has Mauer comparisons, I'd just assume taking one in the second round and taking an above average arm first. That's me though, and I haven't seen the scouting on all these kids, so I'm not about to say my opinion is the advice the Sox should take.

Mauer is a once-a-decade player at that position, if that.

With 2 sandwich picks, there should be a good deal of pitching talent sitting on the board still. It's a hypothetical, but I don't see Walker dropping to the Sox. In a draft shallow in the position player pool, I'd rather take one early than wait for left-overs.

I would take a position player at 18 and 2 pitchers in the 2nd round (unless a guy you really liked fell to you there). With 3 2nd round picks, I'd again look for at least one or 2 more position players and maybe go 4:2 or 3:3 in terms of pitcher:position.

Think of it this way. If Olivo get's hurt somehow, the Sox are screwed, both short AND long-term.

iwannago
05-20-2004, 03:24 PM
Sorry, I have no faith in the Sox draft selections. Wonder why?

Randar68
05-20-2004, 03:26 PM
Originally posted by joecrede
What is the best strategy for the Sox to use in the draft? I really liked what they did last year. Getting a guy in the 1st round for "slot" money and taking a guy in the 2nd round who slipped and was a tougher sign, using money saved on the 1st and 3rd selections to make a solid offer for a 2nd round pick.

You can almost be assured that someone will slip to the 34th pick because of signabillity issues. I advocate using the same strategy and that's where a guy like Pedroia comes in. I'm sure he'd go for a pre-draft deal, then just sit and wait to see who falls to 34.

Pedroia will be there with either of their Sandwich picks if they are really in love with the kid. You don't waste a #18 pick on a 5'9" shortstop with a questionable arm.

They have 6 picks in the first 2 rounds, so yes, look for signability to be a real factor. Maybe they take Landon Powell in the 2nd round since he is a college Sr.?

Randar68
05-20-2004, 03:27 PM
Originally posted by iwannago
Sorry, I have no faith in the Sox draft selections. Wonder why?

HUH?

:whoflungpoo

SEALgep
05-20-2004, 03:28 PM
Originally posted by iwannago
Sorry, I have no faith in the Sox draft selections. Wonder why? I wonder why. The last two years have been pretty solid.

iwannago
05-20-2004, 03:32 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
I wonder why. The last two years have been pretty solid.

All potencial (sp), whose made it that was drafted in the last two years?

Randar68
05-20-2004, 03:35 PM
Originally posted by iwannago
All potencial (sp), whose made it that was drafted in the last two years?

Are you really this dumb?

Don't read or follow the draft then, because, frankly, it's one of my, and others', favorite baseball-related events of the year.

If you want to piss in your own coffee, fine, but don't do it to others. The Sox had probably their best draft in 10+ years last year, and had a solid draft all-around the 2 years prior to that.

Your lack of reason is beyond comprehension.

bobj4400
05-20-2004, 03:41 PM
Originally posted by iwannago
All potencial (sp), whose made it that was drafted in the last two years?

This statement is asinine. Besides guys like Prior (once in a decade type players), no draft picks in baseball even sniff the big leagues for 3 years. Trying to evaluate a draft after 2 years is ridiculous.

joecrede
05-20-2004, 03:51 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Pedroia will be there with either of their Sandwich picks if they are really in love with the kid. You don't waste a #18 pick on a 5'9" shortstop with a questionable arm.

I think there's a good chance he won't be there at 34. Middle-Infielders with his offensive skills . . . You could probably get him at somewhere between 34 and 19 money too.

They have 6 picks in the first 2 rounds, so yes, look for signability to be a real factor. Maybe they take Landon Powell in the 2nd round since he is a college Sr.?

I think the catching position comes somewhere after pitching and guys who can get on base in terms of system needs. I'd be somewhat disappointed if they passed filling those needs for a catcher with their first three picks or so.

SEALgep
05-20-2004, 03:54 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Are you really this dumb?

Don't read or follow the draft then, because, frankly, it's one of my, and others', favorite baseball-related events of the year.

If you want to piss in your own coffee, fine, but don't do it to others. The Sox had probably their best draft in 10+ years last year, and had a solid draft all-around the 2 years prior to that.

Your lack of reason is beyond comprehension. I usually don't like when you call people dumb, but I might have to let it slide this time. :D:

Randar68
05-20-2004, 03:55 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
I usually don't like when you call people dumb, but I might have to let it slide this time. :D:

Hey, I was nice enough to ask him for his self-assessment, you can only ask so much... :D:

Randar68
05-20-2004, 04:00 PM
Originally posted by joecrede
I think there's a good chance he won't be there at 34. Middle-Infielders with his offensive skills . . . You could probably get him at somewhere between 34 and 19 money too.

IMO, you have to take the best player you can at #18. It only enhances the value if there are guys at need positions that you have rated highly there.

Pedroia will end up at 2B, IMO, and do you want to pass on some of the pitchers available at #18 or a guy like Fields to take Pedroia? I sure as heck wouldn't. Pedroia will be there at #34 unless someone else in a similar situation (like the A's) take him in a pre-draft deal. In that case, you tip your hat and move on with you draft.



Originally posted by joecrede
I think the catching position comes somewhere after pitching and guys who can get on base in terms of system needs. I'd be somewhat disappointed if they passed filling those needs for a catcher with their first three picks or so.

Pitching is always a need, even if you have an MLB staff full of aces. At the same time, Catcher is one of the hardest positions to even get any quality depth at in an organization, so it should be at a premium, IMO. If you can get a catcher who can get on base and is a good all-around hitter, why do you want to pass that up for a 5'9" 2B?

MarkEdward
05-20-2004, 04:03 PM
I see you also noticed that Baseball America has started their draft preview, Randar. :smile:

I agree that catcher, corner infield, and middle infield are important targets in this draft for the Sox. As far as catchers go, Kurt Suzuki of Cal State Fullerton has been a monster this year (.439/.537/.709). Josh Fields' teammate at OSU, Jason Jaramillo, has also been impressive (.355/.437/.475). I was thinking about Landon Powell too, but he seems to have fallen in BA's rankings (86th overall hitting prospect); he has hit well, though, and I still expect him to go in the earlier rounds of the draft. High schooler Neil Walker is also someone to look at; BA has him ranked as the second-best high school hitter in the draft.

As for infielders, I'd love to get Pedroia, but he most likely will be available after the first round, so we don't need to make him our first pick. I agree that Fields would be a great first pick. Anyone know about his defense? FWIW, it looks like there will be few decent outfielders available (Szymanski, Zeringue, Golson), but outfield seems to be a strength of the Sox organization, so they probably won't go in that direction.

I'll take a closer look at pitchers later, but aside from the big names (Weaver, the Rice trio, Verlander, Rogers) nobody really jumps out at me. I think it would be better to take a hitter with the first pick.

So here are my five targets. This list will probably change as the month progresses:
1. Josh Fields
2. Kurt Suzuki
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Jason Jaramillo
5. Neil Walker

Fungo
05-20-2004, 04:06 PM
What does anyone know about Landon Powell, C, South Carolina? He dropped big time in last years draft, IIRC because of a potential weight problem. Fortunately for him it was his junior year and was able to go back to school. This year if he falls he's kinda between a rock and a hard place. He's still rated in the top 100 prospects.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 04:14 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
I see you also noticed that Baseball America has started their draft preview, Randar. :smile:

Well, I've been trying to keep up with it for a while, but I looked at the calendar this morning and it really snuck-up on me.

Originally posted by MarkEdward
I agree that catcher, corner infield, and middle infield are important targets in this draft for the Sox. As far as catchers go, Kurt Suzuki of Cal State Fullerton has been a monster this year (.439/.537/.709). Josh Fields' teammate at OSU, Jason Jaramillo, has also been impressive (.355/.437/.475). I was thinking about Landon Powell too, but he seems to have fallen in BA's rankings (86th overall hitting prospect); he has hit well, though, and I still expect him to go in the earlier rounds of the draft. High schooler Neil Walker is also someone to look at; BA has him ranked as the second-best high school hitter in the draft.

As for infielders, I'd love to get Pedroia, but he most likely will be available after the first round, so we don't need to make him our first pick. I agree that Fields would be a great first pick. Anyone know about his defense? FWIW, it looks like there will be few decent outfielders available (Szymanski, Zeringue, Golson), but outfield seems to be a strength of the Sox organization, so they probably won't go in that direction.

I'll take a closer look at pitchers later, but aside from the big names (Weaver, the Rice trio, Verlander, Rogers) nobody really jumps out at me. I think it would be better to take a hitter with the first pick.

So here are my five targets. This list will probably change as the month progresses:
1. Josh Fields
2. Kurt Suzuki
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Jason Jaramillo
5. Neil Walker

Who do you think will be there when the Sox pick at #18 and which players would you select, prioritize them. Fields and Walker are the only 2 of your 5 who almost certainly won't be there when they pick 34th.

I agree about taking a hitter, because the cream of the crop of pitchers is going to be gone at 18 (although the depth and value will still be there through the 2nd or 3rd round) but a lot of the hitters are going to drop due to the run on hurlers...

Randar68
05-20-2004, 04:17 PM
Originally posted by Fungo
What does anyone know about Landon Powell, C, South Carolina? He dropped big time in last years draft, IIRC because of a potential weight problem. Fortunately for him it was his junior year and was able to go back to school. This year if he falls he's kinda between a rock and a hard place. He's still rated in the top 100 prospects.

Good hitter, questionable work-ethic and mentality.

MarkEdward
05-20-2004, 04:33 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Well, I've been trying to keep up with it for a while, but I looked at the calendar this morning and it really snuck-up on me.

This wasn't meant as a dig on you, FWIW. I was thinking about posting the same thing after checking out BA's site today.


Who do you think will be there when the Sox pick at #18 and which players would you select, prioritize them. Fields and Walker are the only 2 of your 5 who almost certainly won't be there when they pick 34th.

I agree that both Walker and Fields would not be available at 34, so those two should probably be the Sox targets for the first pick. I think I'd take Fields over Walker in the end; just by glancing at BA's top 100 chart, catchers litter the list while corner infielders are sparse. Walker looks good, but there will most likely be other relatively good catchers at pick 34.

If I were a bit crazier, I'd take Suzuki at 18, although it would be quite a reach. I can't see him falling to 34, sadly; his numbers are great, and scouts seem to like him (going by BA's best tools list).

So to sum it up, I'd go with Fields at 18, and Suzuki at 34. At 38, maybe Pedroia.

maurice
05-20-2004, 04:51 PM
In addition to pitching, C and SS should always be a priority. Quality young Cs are such a scarce and valuable commodity (particularly for the Sox), and a SS typically can be moved to another position if you have an unusually talented team.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox took a risk on a sandwich or 2nd round pick with signability issues, since they have plenty of other high picks to cover themselves.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 05:02 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
So to sum it up, I'd go with Fields at 18, and Suzuki at 34. At 38, maybe Pedroia.

I wouldn't mind that, but no pitchers with any of the first 3 picks??? Or are you just thinking about hitters for now?

Vsahajpal
05-20-2004, 05:21 PM
I know the Sox are looking at a HS outfielder from Cali, DeSean Jackson, probably a 2nd-3rd round pick. Keep an eye out for him.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 05:28 PM
Originally posted by Vsahajpal
I know the Sox are looking at a HS outfielder from Cali, DeSean Jackson, probably a 2nd-3rd round pick. Keep an eye out for him.

Hmmmm, he's 5'11" 170 pound from Long Beach Poly and runs a sub-4.4 40.

However, he's WR prospect who has football offers to ASU, Arizona, USC, Michigan, Nebraska, Pitt and Cal.

Seems like someone you'd have to give a hefty bonus to. I don't see the Sox doing that given 6 picks in the first 2 rounds, so it's a tad confusing.

Vsahajpal
05-20-2004, 05:44 PM
It would allow them to spread the payments out if he plays football in college.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 05:46 PM
Originally posted by Vsahajpal
It would allow them to spread the payments out if he plays football in college.

Doesn't he have to have pro potential in that sport to be able to justify that? There are some caveats to that rule, no?

iwannago
05-20-2004, 05:52 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Hey, I was nice enough to ask him for his self-assessment, you can only ask so much... :D:

Hey Genius. What support can give that this was a successful draft. The bottom line to a great draft is how many made it the majors and how well they played. Hell your not a genius you must a geni.So go back in your bottle and learn some manners

Vsahajpal
05-20-2004, 05:53 PM
I believe the rule is that the bonus can be spread over 5 years for two-sport athletes, and that would qualify DeSean.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 05:53 PM
Originally posted by iwannago
Hey Genius. What support can give that this was a successful draft. The bottom line to a great draft is how many made it the majors and how well they played. Hell your not a genius you must a geni.So go back in your bottle and learn some manners

:troll

Can't argue with ignorance, so I'll just ridicule you instead. How's that sound, gramps?

Randar68
05-20-2004, 05:55 PM
Originally posted by Vsahajpal
I believe the rule is that the bonus can be spread over 5 years for two-sport athletes, and that would qualify DeSean.

Yeah, that's how I understand the rule, but I thought there was more to it than simply saying they are a 2-sport athlete. I thought there had to be verifiable pro interest in that other sport...

I'll see what I can dig up...

iwannago
05-20-2004, 05:55 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
:troll

Can't argue with ignorance, so I'll just ridicule you instead. How's that sound, gramps?

You ought to know, besides I'm not you gramps.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 06:12 PM
Originally posted by Vsahajpal
I believe the rule is that the bonus can be spread over 5 years for two-sport athletes, and that would qualify DeSean.

Yep, just found something that said it applies to baseball draftees as long as they have the opportunity to play that other sport in college. What I found also stated it's spread over 4 years, not 5, FWIW.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 06:16 PM
Originally posted by Vsahajpal
I know the Sox are looking at a HS outfielder from Cali, DeSean Jackson, probably a 2nd-3rd round pick. Keep an eye out for him.

Another interesting tidbit. I just read where he's one of the top 10 WR recruits in the country in his class. Must be quite the athlete.

Wanne
05-20-2004, 06:18 PM
I getta see alot of Pedrioa and another guy that could be there with the sandwich picks...Jeff Larish. I really like Pedrioa alot...not only for his plate discipline...but he plays pretty solid defense, nothing spectacular though...and eats, sleeps, breaths baseball. I don't think I'd take him with the 18th pick though. The thing about Larish is his numbers have really been down this year. At one point I think he was rated as a top 5 prospect...but not sure now with his mediocre season. He got hurt (wrist I believe) pretty early in the season for ASU and has never really come back full-strength...but did have 8 homers for Team USA last summer. Nice left handed bat though with some power. If he falls for some reason, and is sittin' there for the 34th pick (which I doubt)...he needs to snatched up.

I'd sure like to see some pitchers stockpiled though.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 06:28 PM
Originally posted by Wanne
I getta see alot of Pedrioa and another guy that could be there with the sandwich picks...Jeff Larish. I really like Pedrioa alot...not only for his plate discipline...but he plays pretty solid defense, nothing spectacular though...and eats, sleeps, breaths baseball. I don't think I'd take him with the 18th pick though. The thing about Larish is his numbers have really been down this year. At one point I think he was rated as a top 5 prospect...but not sure now with his mediocre season. He got hurt (wrist I believe) pretty early in the season for ASU and has never really come back full-strength...but did have 8 homers for Team USA last summer. Nice left handed bat though with some power. If he falls for some reason, and is sittin' there for the 34th pick (which I doubt)...he needs to snatched up.

I'd sure like to see some pitchers stockpiled though.

2 areas I never worry about with the Sox are Arizona and South Florida. If there are any hidden gems in those regions, the Sox' scouts will find them. I am sure they are fully aware and educated about both of those players. We'll find out what they think of them on June 7th.

MarkEdward
05-20-2004, 06:30 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
I wouldn't mind that, but no pitchers with any of the first 3 picks??? Or are you just thinking about hitters for now?

I have not taken a close look at pitchers yet, so I was mainly talking about hitters. Like I said before, no pitchers (aside from the top ones like Weaver and company) really caught my eye. However, I can see the Sox taking a pitcher with either the 34th or 38th pick (of course, I have very little idea of what the Sox drafting strategy will be this year). As for me, I'd like to see the Sox get Fields and Suzuki before taking a pitcher.

Thinking about it more, with the steady (though not great) play of Valido and Gray in Kannapolis, I don't think the Sox will be eager to draft a middle infielder with one of their top picks.

SoxxoS
05-20-2004, 07:37 PM
I am obviously an ASU guy...but Wanne is right...the guy I want is Jeff Larish. 1B, lefty, with nice power and a great stroke. Decent with the glove as well.

Pedroia's arm strength and overall strength worry me, although he is a very good (scrappy) player.

:KW

"Is he a grinder?"

Yes, KW. He's a grinder.

Wanne
05-20-2004, 07:53 PM
I still want someone who can throw some gas! Looking through alot of these prospects...this one really caught my eye for the 18th pick (again...if he's there). Anybody know more about this guy?


Name: Thomas Diamond
Height/Weight: 6-2_/_230
Bats/Throws: R_/_R
Date of Birth: 1/1/01
School: New Orleans

#13 college prospect according to Baseball America, #20 overall. #15 college prospect by TeamOneBaseball. 2nd team preseason All-American & #1 propsect in the Northwoods League last summer by BA. Strong bodied pitcher with one of the best fastballs in the draft. Throws in the mid to upper-90s flashing 97 mph gas. Maintains his velocity well and is expected to continue that given his frame. Has shown improvement with the overall command on his fastball. Flashes a decent slider, curveball & changeup, but needs to develop more consistency with all of his offspeed offerings. Is definitely a player that could soar up draft charts this spring with a strong college season.


Scout's View: Thomas Diamond
By Will Kimmey
May 1, 2004

Thomas Diamond, rhp, New Orleans

Diamond grew up in Kenner, La., and wanted to play for Tulane. New Orleans was the only school to offer him a scholarship, however, so he went there even after the Devil Rays made him a 38th-round draft pick out of high school in 2001. It has paid off for Diamond and the Privateers, as he's now the best pitcher in the state and a likely first-round pick in this year's draft. Diamond was 5-3, 2.81 with 98 strikeouts and 28 walks in 74 innings this season and tied a school and Sun Belt Conference record with 17 strikeouts against Arkansas State. A scout broke down the 6-foot-2, 231-pounder's repertoire:

"His stuff has been a little inconsistent, but it's been very good the last five to six weeks, and it's getting better as the season goes on. His fastball is a heavy downer that I've seen up to 97 (mph), but it's mostly 93-94. Last time out I saw him at 96 in the ninth inning. He throws it to both sides of the plate and at a downhill angle. He's a bull with a strong build.

"I'd ditch the curveball; he doesn't need it because his slider is better. It's late, quick and hard at 83-84. His change is 79-82, and it fades down (in the zone) at the end.

"He's one of the top college righthanders in the country. I don't think he gets out of the top 10 picks. People say he doesn't face a lot of competition in the Sun Belt, but those Rice guys don't either in the WAC. He compares with them."

Chisoxfn
05-20-2004, 07:54 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Scare me? Yeah, a little, but no more really than taking a HS pitcher at #18. Catcher is a tough position, and barring a late slide, I doubt he'd drop to the Sox. The catcher position is riddled with more intangibles than any other position in baseball. The mental aspect of handling a staff and being a leader, the work ethic required to do that and hit as well...

With any catcher, you'd have to be pretty damned convinced. The mental aspect is why so many HS catchers never make it. That said, if the Sox are convinced he has all the tools behind the plate to stick at the position, yeah, I'd be all for them taking him.

Walker is rated among the top 3 HS players for pure hitter, power, and strike-zone judgment by BA. His arm may be a tad suspect, but he is the clear-cut best HS C in the draft.

I like Kurt Suzuki out of CS-Fullerton, but he'd be a 2nd round pick IMO if he fell to their 53rd or later picks...
Yeahh Randar, someone else on my Suzuki thinking. He's a really good defensive catcher whose just starting to show his offensive tools. I think he could be had anywhere between the 2nd and 5th round and would be an exceptional pick by the Sox.

I've seen him play a ton and he's the real deal, I think he'll make it. Also, I'd be leary of catchers in general cause they fail so often.

Personally I'd like to see the Sox take one of the college pitchers, however, I've very high on Hughes out of a California high school. I saw him pitch a game this year and he has sick stuff and very very good control for a youngster. He seemed to repeat his delivery well and his ball explodes at 95 MPH. He also has a nasty curveball.

A. Cavatica
05-20-2004, 09:05 PM
I'm impressed with anyone who knows anything about
draft prospects before they're drafted...this isn't the NBA. Thanks for starting this thread, Randar!

I think we're (organizationally) as weak at catcher as we've been at any position since I started following the Sox minor league teams in the late 1980s. I would like to see two catchers drafted high (first 5-6 picks) and two more drafted lower. Preferably college players.

We're also pretty weak at third. I like Schnurstein but I don't see him as a sure thing. Antoin Gray plays there intermittently. Unless we're planning to convert Mike Morse, I would definitely go for a third baseman early.

I'd probably spend the rest of the high picks on starting pitchers. RH/LH makes no difference as lefties are so valuable in trade. We don't have many flamethrowers and we don't have many innings-eaters; I'd gamble on high schoolers if I had to, but I'd try to draft for those traits, and for "ace potential", more than depth.
And no lefty relievers before round 20, please!

The Sox could use a first baseman, but Rogowski has started looking like a prospect again, and Sweeney will probably end up there. Unless there's a near-Frank-Thomas-caliber hitter available (preferably lefthanded) I wouldn't use a high pick here.

The Sox are OK with middle infielders. Valido and Gonzalez could get a rivalry going that would help both their chances. At second, Lopez looks good and Yan could still cook. I'd hold off until the middle rounds.

I definitely wouldn't take any corner outfielders until the middle rounds. I might take a flyer on a CF with tons of potential.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 09:15 PM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
I definitely wouldn't take any corner outfielders until the middle rounds. I might take a flyer on a CF with tons of potential.

I think that must be the reasoning with the kid from Long Beach that Vsahajpal brought up. If the Sox could get a guy like Fields at #18 and a guy like DeSean in the late 2nd or 3rd dround, that definitely helps save (spreading bonuses out) them on their other picks and perhaps they don't have to pass up talent for $$$$ issues.

A. Cavatica
05-20-2004, 09:26 PM
Randar, I just went back and looked at your priorities:

1) C
2) 3B
3) 1B
4) SS/2B
5) OF

I swear I wasn't copying. :)

owensmouth
05-20-2004, 09:33 PM
Radar - I understand that the Sox have two choices for losing Flash and Colon. The 53d, 59th and 69th picks? Those all sound like they're in the middle of the second round. Draft picks can't be traded. So how did the Sox get all three?

Another thing, I'd shy away from the multi sport athletes (at least those that sign with baseball and then play football in college). It just seems to me that baseball has been used by a lot of guys that end up in the NFL.

It's more difficult for a kid to work his way into the majors than football. Especially tall speedy guys who can catch a football. These guys take a nice bonus and use it as spending money in college. Then four years later, he's gone.

Daver
05-20-2004, 10:16 PM
Second round sandwich picks come from type B free agent losses.

Randar68
05-21-2004, 12:08 AM
Originally posted by owensmouth
Radar - I understand that the Sox have two choices for losing Flash and Colon. The 53d, 59th and 69th picks? Those all sound like they're in the middle of the second round. Draft picks can't be traded. So how did the Sox get all three?

Another thing, I'd shy away from the multi sport athletes (at least those that sign with baseball and then play football in college). It just seems to me that baseball has been used by a lot of guys that end up in the NFL.

It's more difficult for a kid to work his way into the majors than football. Especially tall speedy guys who can catch a football. These guys take a nice bonus and use it as spending money in college. Then four years later, he's gone.

If the Sox were to draft/sign any 2-sport guys, it would certainly be contingent upon them giving up football. They won't sign anyone who's going to string them along, that's where the research and background info come into play.

The Sox naturally pick 18th and 59th, but they got 2 sandwich picks for Colon (#34) and Gordon(#38) and also receive the Angels 2nd round pick and NYY's second rounder for the signing of those stated FA's...

Vsahajpal
05-21-2004, 12:21 AM
DeSean is definitely a pro prospect in either sport, very gifted. I've seen 5 years in a few places, I remember that's what it was for Mauer and Roscoe C. Maybe they changed the rule.


The best prospects at ASU are actually underclassmen; Travis Buck and Colin Curtis. Buck will be eligible next year, Curtis is a true freshman.

owensmouth
05-21-2004, 03:19 AM
Radar and Daver - Thanks for the answer about those second round picks.

Fungo
05-21-2004, 09:53 AM
Here are the first 19 picks as projected by Baseball America in their mock draft. I included the pick after the White Sox because Josh Fields name has been mention a few times in this thread as someone they would like the Sox to draft. I wouldn't mind it either, the last 3b we drafted out of OSU didn't turn out too bad.

Padres - Jered Weaver
Tigers - Jeff Niemann
Mets - Stephen Drew
Devil Rays - Chris Nelson
Brewers - Philip Humber
Indians - Jeremy Sowers
Reds - Matt Bush
Orioles - Justin Verlander
Rockies - Wade Townsend
Rangers - Homer Bailey
Pirates - Neil Walker
Angels - Mark Rogers
Expos - Thomas Diamond
Royals - Mike Ferris
Diamondbacks - David Purcey
Blue Jays - Zach Jackson
Dodgers - Scott Elbert
White Sox - B.J. Syzmanski
Cardinals - Josh Fields

18. WHITE SOX. The White Sox would prefer a college pitcher and have pursued such arms as Diamond, Hoyman, Perkins, Purcey and Vargas, but they may find it irresistible to pass on a big bat like Ferris or Szymanski.

SEALgep
05-21-2004, 10:12 AM
You wouldn't think the Sox should use their 18th pick on a CF since our outfielding prospects seem to be our strength in the minors, but this guy is an absolute stud. I really couldn't argue the pick if that's the direction we went.

jabrch
05-21-2004, 11:04 AM
Originally posted by Randar68
Seeing as how the draft is less than 3 weeks away, I figure it's time to start talking about it.

The Sox have 6 picks in the first 2 rounds:
1st round: 18th pick
Sandwich: 34th and 38th picks
2nd round: 53rd, 59th, and 69th picks

With 6 of the first 70 picks, they should have a lot of opportunities to address weak positions in the system. The weakest organizational position is probably C. You can never have too many arms, so pitching is a premium, and the Sox are a bit short in RH'd pitching, while relatively deep at the lower levels in LH pitching. 3rd base and 1st base are also pretty weak, and you can never have too many SS's either. OF is a definite area of strength.

IMO, ranking positional needs:
1) C
2) 3B
3) 1B
4) SS/2B
5) OF

The strength of this draft is undoubtedly in the college pitchers, with almost all of the top candidates as Jr's. With all these picks, the Sox will be looking for players who will not be overly expensive to sign (save maybe 2-sport athletes allowing them to spread the bonus out over 5 years, someone like 3B Josh Fields might be a likely 1st round target if they go positional)

Cross any Boras client off your lists now. College Sr's or college Jr's and HS players eager to go pro are going to be the preferential targets for the Sox.

Overall, the position players are weaker than most years, but there are a couple of positions where it is a deep draft, at least at the top, namely, C and SS. No less than 10 of the top 50 positional prospects are catchers, so the Sox will have a golden opportunity to take a couple of catchers in the first 3 rounds and help rebuild the system depth at that position.

Another thing that has been discussed, is with the growing tactic of avoiding drafting HS pitchers, aka. the spread of Beane and his disciples, HS pitchers are going to offer some better-than-previous value in the 2nd and 3rd round particularly.


Thoughts... guys you want to see the Sox take... needs?

Discuss!

Nice thread Randar...

I agree with your assessment of our organization's depth (or lack thereof) at C, but with Olivo hopefully being here for a long time, I am not sure that is where I'd go. I would draft SP fairly heavy, and see if we can get MI also. Say what you want about the Cubs, but their pitching, both at the minor league level and at the MLB level is what is keeping them from being a bottom feeder again. I'd love to someday say that the Sox have a great pitching staff that we developed, along the lines of Oakland and the Cubs. In order to do that, we need to draft a bunch of arms to couple with the ones we already have. I'd also like to see us look for a closer in the draft - not round 1-3 - much later, but a guy who not only has closer stuff, but a closer mentality.

Randar68
05-21-2004, 11:21 AM
Originally posted by Fungo
Here are the first 19 picks as projected by Baseball America in their mock draft. I included the pick after the White Sox because Josh Fields name has been mention a few times in this thread as someone they would like the Sox to draft. I wouldn't mind it either, the last 3b we drafted out of OSU didn't turn out too bad.

Padres - Jered Weaver
Tigers - Jeff Niemann
Mets - Stephen Drew
Devil Rays - Chris Nelson
Brewers - Philip Humber
Indians - Jeremy Sowers
Reds - Matt Bush
Orioles - Justin Verlander
Rockies - Wade Townsend
Rangers - Homer Bailey
Pirates - Neil Walker
Angels - Mark Rogers
Expos - Thomas Diamond
Royals - Mike Ferris
Diamondbacks - David Purcey
Blue Jays - Zach Jackson
Dodgers - Scott Elbert
White Sox - B.J. Syzmanski
Cardinals - Josh Fields

18. WHITE SOX. The White Sox would prefer a college pitcher and have pursued such arms as Diamond, Hoyman, Perkins, Purcey and Vargas, but they may find it irresistible to pass on a big bat like Ferris or Szymanski.

Well, I haven't been over to BA yet today, but whoever wrote this article will be receiving an e-mail from me.

No way in HELL the Sox take an OF'er over a 3B, especially if a 2-sport guy as highly rated as Fields falls to them at #18, allowing them to spread that money out to lessen the overall hit from 6 picks in the first 2 rounds.

joecrede
05-21-2004, 11:46 AM
Draft chat today at 1:00. You don't need to be a subscriber.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/

MarkEdward
05-21-2004, 02:36 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Well, I haven't been over to BA yet today, but whoever wrote this article will be receiving an e-mail from me.

No way in HELL the Sox take an OF'er over a 3B, especially if a 2-sport guy as highly rated as Fields falls to them at #18, allowing them to spread that money out to lessen the overall hit from 6 picks in the first 2 rounds.

Yeah, Szymanski looks like a very good player, but if Fields is available at 18, the Sox would be fools not to take him.

On the other hand, it would be pretty cool to draft a guy out of Princeton...

Fungo
05-21-2004, 02:53 PM
Has TeamOneBaseball.com become pretty much a pay site now? Does anyone know of any other sites that have good information on prospects or draft previews?

Randar68
05-21-2004, 02:56 PM
Originally posted by Fungo
Has TeamOneBaseball.com become pretty much a pay site now? Does anyone know of any other sites that have good information on prospects or draft previews?

almost completely a pay site, I believe.

Kittle83ROY
05-21-2004, 03:05 PM
The White Sox have drafted something like 7-10 catchers in the first round. Most never developed into major leaguers, let alone all stars.

The Sox should not draft a catcher high unless he's rated as a high pick. A lot of catchers and All Star catchers at that were not drafted that high. Piazza being the prime example, 62nd round.

A little bit of history, the Blue Jays back in 1983 drafted a catcher because they had little to no catching prospects in their system. Even though they had another player rated much higher than this catcher. The name of the other player? Roger Clemons. The catcher? Matt Starks.

As for the A's choice of college pitchers, think they would have passed on Kerry Woods? And when you have two of their big three choosen in the top 10 of their drafts it's pretty easy not to mess up. Mulder was #2 and Zito was 8 or 9 in their drafts. The thing about college pitchers is that since many college games are high scoring games, they are used to getting banged around and since they are older, they can handle getting beat up in the majors. Where a HS pitcher who basically dominated maybe can't handle the bad games as well.

Frater Perdurabo
05-21-2004, 03:20 PM
Originally posted by Kittle83ROY
The White Sox have drafted something like 7-10 catchers in the first round. Most never developed into major leaguers, let alone all stars.

The Sox should not draft a catcher high unless he's rated as a high pick. A lot of catchers and All Star catchers at that were not drafted that high. Piazza being the prime example, 62nd round.

A little bit of history, the Blue Jays back in 1983 drafted a catcher because they had little to no catching prospects in their system. Even though they had another player rated much higher than this catcher. The name of the other player? Roger Clemons. The catcher? Matt Starks.

Ah yes. The futility of drafting on position needs alone. I agree that catcher is an area of concern. But the Sox should not pass on players who they have ranked higher just to reach for someone on the basis of need.

Randar68
05-21-2004, 03:26 PM
Originally posted by Frater Perdurabo
Ah yes. The futility of drafting on position needs alone. I agree that catcher is an area of concern. But the Sox should not pass on players who they have ranked higher just to reach for someone on the basis of need.

And that has been suggested exactly NOWHERE in this thread.

You draft the highest guy on your board at any given time. However, with 6 picks in the top 70, they have a lot of wiggle-room and will have the opportunity to get a guy like Suzuki in the Sandwich round, which, IMO, would be a very smart move on their part.

Kittle83ROY
05-21-2004, 05:52 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
And that has been suggested exactly NOWHERE in this thread.

You draft the highest guy on your board at any given time. However, with 6 picks in the top 70, they have a lot of wiggle-room and will have the opportunity to get a guy like Suzuki in the Sandwich round, which, IMO, would be a very smart move on their part.

That's exactly what you're suggesting by taking Suzuki. He's not a Top 70 pick. Not even a Top 100 pick. If you can get Suzuki in the 10th round, why take him in the Top 3 rounds?

Frater Perdurabo
05-21-2004, 10:54 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
And that has been suggested exactly NOWHERE in this thread.

You draft the highest guy on your board at any given time. However, with 6 picks in the top 70, they have a lot of wiggle-room and will have the opportunity to get a guy like Suzuki in the Sandwich round, which, IMO, would be a very smart move on their part.

Sorry, Randar. I only was agreeing with the point made by Kittle83ROY in warning about the danger of drafting solely by positional needs. I didn't mean to imply that you or anyone else was suggesting drafting solely on the basis of position. Sorry if I caused any offense. :(:

Fungo
05-29-2004, 02:08 PM
Good chance to check out some college baseball action today (Saturday, May 29). The Big 12 has 2 semi-final games on Fox Sports Net starting at 1:30 with what looks like Oklahoma State/Texas in the first game and Missouri/Baylor in the second game on tape delay. Following that is the final game of the Missouri Valley Conference final featuring Wichita State & Southern Illinois on FSN as well. The OSU/Texas game should be a good match-up and a chance to catch a few real good prospects for the upcoming draft...Josh Fields & Jason Jaramillo from OSU and Huston Street from Texas.
For you Division II fans, Delta State takes on Grand Valley State in the D-II World Series Final Game, unfortunately, not televised.

Chisoxfn
05-29-2004, 02:34 PM
Originally posted by Kittle83ROY
That's exactly what you're suggesting by taking Suzuki. He's not a Top 70 pick. Not even a Top 100 pick. If you can get Suzuki in the 10th round, why take him in the Top 3 rounds?

Suzuki is not a 10th round pick. He'll go within the 1st three rounds, probably in the sandwich round or early to mid 2nd.

The guy is a very good catcher. He handles pitchers well, is good defensively, and offensively is just beginning to come into his own. He has a good amount of upside, imo, and from seeing him play, I think he's got a definate future in the majors.

RichH55
05-29-2004, 03:46 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
Suzuki is not a 10th round pick. He'll go within the 1st three rounds, probably in the sandwich round or early to mid 2nd.

The guy is a very good catcher. He handles pitchers well, is good defensively, and offensively is just beginning to come into his own. He has a good amount of upside, imo, and from seeing him play, I think he's got a definate future in the majors.

That sounds like someone got lazy and just pulled up an old Mark Johnson scouting report