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Frater Perdurabo
05-19-2004, 12:17 PM
Randar (and the other scouts out there), do the Sox have the makings of a complete major-league outfield in their minor league organization? That is, given the sheer number of highly-touted outfield prospects down on the farm, do you think that in, say 3 or 4 years, at least three of them will be playing in a major league outfield at a high level? Furthermore, will the Sox determination of this question factor into the extent to which they attempt to re-sign Maggs?

sas1974
05-19-2004, 12:22 PM
Originally posted by Frater Perdurabo
Furthermore, will the Sox determination of this question factor into the extent to which they attempt to re-sign Maggs?

I am not answering as a "minor-league expert" by any stretch, but I do recall a slightly similar situation where they let their gold glove third baseman go bc they had a 3B prospect on the way - only it took 3 years for him to get there.

Randar68
05-19-2004, 12:39 PM
Originally posted by Frater Perdurabo
Randar (and the other scouts out there), do the Sox have the makings of a complete major-league outfield in their minor league organization? That is, given the sheer number of highly-touted outfield prospects down on the farm, do you think that in, say 3 or 4 years, at least three of them will be playing in a major league outfield at a high level? Furthermore, will the Sox determination of this question factor into the extent to which they attempt to re-sign Maggs?

Question 1: "do the Sox have the makings of a complete major-league outfield in their minor league organization? That is, given the sheer number of highly-touted outfield prospects down on the farm, do you think that in, say 3 or 4 years, at least three of them will be playing in a major league outfield at a high level?"

Well, yes. Besides the obvios Reed, Borchard, Anderson and Sweeney, Chris Young is a high-ceiling CF prospect. That gives them a minimum of 5 legit OF prospects, 2 of those CF'ers and 2 of those being RF'ers. Thomas Brice and Nanita (some might say Spidale, but not IMHO) shouldn't be discounted either.

Will 3 of those main 5 be MLB regulars or better 3-4 years from now? I have a hard time saying no. Anderson, Reed and Borchard are all 2 years or less from the majors, IMO, and Sweeney is only borderline behind that. Chris Young is probably 3-4 years away if he develops.


Question 2: "Furthermore, will the Sox determination of this question factor into the extent to which they attempt to re-sign Maggs?"

I hope not. I think the Sox should determine what Maggs is worth to them under their constraints. If it's 12 million, so be it. However, I really don't think Maggs is worth 14 million. The market has changed, and for an average defensive RF'er who has never hit 40 HR's or had 120 RBI's, will already be over 30 when he hits FA, 14 millions would be prohibitive to a club with a mid-level payroll.

In no way would I EXPECT any of those prospects to be able to replace Maggs' production in the next couple of years. Would they be wise to resign Maggs or sign Beltran in the offseason? Probably, but that has to be done intelligently, and this team won't and shouldn't win bidding wars unless their payroll is going to grow.

Fungo
05-19-2004, 12:41 PM
I am not answering as a "minor-league expert" either, but Reed, Brian Anderson and Ryan Sweeney are all very good looking prospects and could very well be the outfield of the future. If any of those doesn't pan out, there is still hope for Joe Borchard and youngsters Clint King, Ricardo Nanita and Chris Young all look promising. I would hope that at least 3 of the bunch will become productive major leaguers. I'm not holding my breathe though. Our highly touted minor league class from 2000 has produced very little. Don't believe all the hype, that way you aren't let down and if someone pans out it is a pleasant surprise.

Chisoxfn
05-19-2004, 04:41 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Question 1: "do the Sox have the makings of a complete major-league outfield in their minor league organization? That is, given the sheer number of highly-touted outfield prospects down on the farm, do you think that in, say 3 or 4 years, at least three of them will be playing in a major league outfield at a high level?"

Well, yes. Besides the obvios Reed, Borchard, Anderson and Sweeney, Chris Young is a high-ceiling CF prospect. That gives them a minimum of 5 legit OF prospects, 2 of those CF'ers and 2 of those being RF'ers. Thomas Brice and Nanita (some might say Spidale, but not IMHO) shouldn't be discounted either.

Will 3 of those main 5 be MLB regulars or better 3-4 years from now? I have a hard time saying no. Anderson, Reed and Borchard are all 2 years or less from the majors, IMO, and Sweeney is only borderline behind that. Chris Young is probably 3-4 years away if he develops.


Question 2: "Furthermore, will the Sox determination of this question factor into the extent to which they attempt to re-sign Maggs?"

I hope not. I think the Sox should determine what Maggs is worth to them under their constraints. If it's 12 million, so be it. However, I really don't think Maggs is worth 14 million. The market has changed, and for an average defensive RF'er who has never hit 40 HR's or had 120 RBI's, will already be over 30 when he hits FA, 14 millions would be prohibitive to a club with a mid-level payroll.

In no way would I EXPECT any of those prospects to be able to replace Maggs' production in the next couple of years. Would they be wise to resign Maggs or sign Beltran in the offseason? Probably, but that has to be done intelligently, and this team won't and shouldn't win bidding wars unless their payroll is going to grow.

I second Randar's post with the exception that I don't consider Nanita much of a prospect at this point. I do think Spidale has passed him, however, when you talk raw potential, I won't look pass Chris Young. The guy has legitimate tools across the board and I think he could be a Vernon Wells type of player.

Then of course Sweeney, Anderson and Reed all look like they have the ability to be special players, although I don't think any of them will hit for the power some people would expect to call them legit 5 tool players.

Randar68
05-19-2004, 04:44 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
I second Randar's post with the exception that I don't consider Nanita much of a prospect at this point. I do think Spidale has passed him, however, when you talk raw potential, I won't look pass Chris Young. The guy has legitimate tools across the board and I think he could be a Vernon Wells type of player.

Then of course Sweeney, Anderson and Reed all look like they have the ability to be special players, although I don't think any of them will hit for the power some people would expect to call them legit 5 tool players.

You don't think Anderson has 30-40 HR potential? He's got much better power than Crede IMO, and Crede's going to be a 30 HR player, IMO, this year...

Chisoxfn
05-19-2004, 04:51 PM
I think Anderson at his peak could be 35 HR potential. However, I think he could be more 25-30 HR, depending on how much he focuses on average. I think Sweeney will be a lot like Garret Anderson. Great average hitter and then will really develop more and more power as he plays and learns to drive the inside pitch.

He did impress me down in spring training, showed off a live bat.

MRKARNO
05-19-2004, 05:06 PM
I'm more of a stats person than a tools person, but it looks like what Vernon Wells did last year is what Anderson could accomplish near his best. Lots of line drives. A lot stay in the park for 2 bases and about 30 clear the outfield wall with maybe a little more power at his absolute best. I would guess that Sweeney has a little more power and a little more speed. Plus he seems to have more plate patience than Anderson, though the 28 Ks really haven't stopped Anderson from hitting crazily.

It would be a real dissapointment IMO if Reed, Anderson and Sweeney aren't all at least major league calibur OFs at some point in their respective careers. Borchard seems to have turned somewhat of a corner the past week or so. It might not be a wise decision to entirely give up on him because it looks like he may be starting to turn a corner.

Randar68
05-19-2004, 05:11 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
I'm more of a stats person than a tools person, but it looks like what Vernon Wells did last year is what Anderson could accomplish near his best. Lots of line drives. A lot stay in the park for 2 bases and about 30 clear the outfield wall with maybe a little more power at his absolute best. I would guess that Sweeney has a little more power and a little more speed. Plus he seems to have more plate patience than Anderson, though the 28 Ks really haven't stopped Anderson from hitting crazily.

It would be a real dissapointment IMO if Reed, Anderson and Sweeney aren't all at least major league calibur OFs at some point in their respective careers. Borchard seems to have turned somewhat of a corner the past week or so. It might not be a wise decision to entirely give up on him because it looks like he may be starting to turn a corner.

Sweeney has the size and mental capacity to hit for power. He can be Jon Olerud or he can turn into a legit power hitter. He slaps the ball too much for me right now. He still get's power out of that, so the potential is definitely there. I really do hope they take it relatively slow with him so he can develop that power in AA or AAA.

MRKARNO
05-19-2004, 05:15 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Sweeney has the size and mental capacity to hit for power. He can be Jon Olerud or he can turn into a legit power hitter. He slaps the ball too much for me right now. He still get's power out of that, so the potential is definitely there. I really do hope they take it relatively slow with him so he can develop that power in AA or AAA.

Well with Anderson looking like he'll be ready in 05, Lee signed for a few more years, Reed nearly ready and Borchard looking like he might be ready for another chance I dont think there's any need to rush him, especially if we can acquire an FA OFer or trade for one this year.

Just a question: What is the percent chance of a Reed, Anderson, Sweeney Outfield in 2006?

Randar68
05-19-2004, 05:33 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Well with Anderson looking like he'll be ready in 05, Lee signed for a few more years, Reed nearly ready and Borchard looking like he might be ready for another chance I dont think there's any need to rush him, especially if we can acquire an FA OFer or trade for one this year.

Just a question: What is the percent chance of a Reed, Anderson, Sweeney Outfield in 2006?

% chance? There are a ton of factors, but I'd be willing to put it conservatively at 25%. Trades, injuries, bumps in the road, who knows?

Where does Sweeney play if Borchard actually develops over that same period of time? 1B?

Don't know, but Sweeney is just 19, so let's not go voting any of these kids to the All-Star game. Talk of their abilities and skills, but let's try to keep from getting ahead of ourselves (although it may be more fun sometimes)

MRKARNO
05-19-2004, 05:41 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Don't know, but Sweeney is just 19, so let's not go voting any of these kids to the All-Star game. Talk of their abilities and skills, but let's try to keep from getting ahead of ourselves (although it may be more fun sometimes)

Well there isn't another topic that everyone can be optimistic about seeing that most people are convinced that the major league club is headed for another 2nd place finish to the Twins. Nothing can ease the dissapointment of a Sox loss like seeing multiple Sox prospects enjoying a good day

Chisoxfn
05-19-2004, 06:58 PM
IF those three are all coming up at the same time in an outfield, this team is likely going to be brutal. Its just a fact, you can't bring up and compete with too many rookies in the lineup. A few choice rookies each year is my way for bringing guys up. That enables you to put them in a position where you don't ask a lot from them right away.

Also, the Sox would be fools if they didn't resign Maggs because they have a few very bright outfield prospects. Even if they all pan out, its going to take quite a while for them to do so, imo. You don't just come up and play like an all star and never look back.

A. Cavatica
05-19-2004, 09:26 PM
Originally posted by sas1974
I do recall a slightly similar situation where they let their gold glove third baseman go bc they had a 3B prospect on the way - only it took 3 years for him to get there.

You missed the EXTRA irony on this one. They let Ventura go because they had a 3B on the way. His name was Carlos Lee! Then they moved Lee to make room for Crede...

I never understood the haste to move Lee from third. I think he won the "best defensive 3B" award at at least one of his minor league stops. If Carlos could still play third, we wouldn't be complaining about his bat or Crede's. We would be complaining about Lee's defense.

Daver
05-19-2004, 09:37 PM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
You missed the EXTRA irony on this one. They let Ventura go because they had a 3B on the way. His name was Carlos Lee! Then they moved Lee to make room for Crede...

I never understood the haste to move Lee from third. I think he won the "best defensive 3B" award at at least one of his minor league stops. If Carlos could still play third, we wouldn't be complaining about his bat or Crede's. We would be complaining about Lee's defense.

Meh.

We can wait and complain about the other Carlos Lee's defense behind the plate......

sas1974
05-19-2004, 10:03 PM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
You missed the EXTRA irony on this one. They let Ventura go because they had a 3B on the way. His name was Carlos Lee! Then they moved Lee to make room for Crede...

I never understood the haste to move Lee from third. I think he won the "best defensive 3B" award at at least one of his minor league stops. If Carlos could still play third, we wouldn't be complaining about his bat or Crede's. We would be complaining about Lee's defense.

Touche! I forgot all about that.

Rex Hudler
05-20-2004, 04:10 AM
I never understood the haste to move Lee from third.

His footwork was terrible, resulting in way too many bad throws.

Rex Hudler
05-20-2004, 04:16 AM
randar, just a thought about your comment on Spidale......

Spidale has a chance to be a 4th OF in the big leagues...... he has an equal chance of being a AA/AAA OF........

He is doing the things he needs to do to prove himself. He takes his walks, is near the league leaders in doubles, has plus speed and can play the outfield well defensively. His weaknesses are no HR power at all, won't drive in a lot of runs and his arm is below average......

In the past he has had a tendency to wear down as the season progresses. If he can stay above .280 and do all of the other little things, then he has a chance to prove himself at the next level. If not, he will be back in AA next year and AAA will likely be his ceiling.

I really think this is a make or break year for him.

Randar68
05-20-2004, 12:34 PM
Originally posted by Rex Hudler
randar, just a thought about your comment on Spidale......

Spidale has a chance to be a 4th OF in the big leagues...... he has an equal chance of being a AA/AAA OF........

He is doing the things he needs to do to prove himself. He takes his walks, is near the league leaders in doubles, has plus speed and can play the outfield well defensively. His weaknesses are no HR power at all, won't drive in a lot of runs and his arm is below average......

In the past he has had a tendency to wear down as the season progresses. If he can stay above .280 and do all of the other little things, then he has a chance to prove himself at the next level. If not, he will be back in AA next year and AAA will likely be his ceiling.

I really think this is a make or break year for him.

That's about where I see him in terms of potential et al as well. I was commenting more towards a few comments I've seen about him being a legit prospect. 4th OF'er is about his ceiling, I would tend to agree, and to me, that means he's a marginal prospect.