PDA

View Full Version : 10-1 in one run games


jeremyb1
05-04-2004, 01:50 PM
I'm guessing most people see this as a positive and it is in that it has allowed us to win a bunch of games so far but as far as a predictor of future performance it is not a good thing. There have been numerous studies showing teams are incapable of consistently performing incredibly well or poorly in one run games over the course of a season. The team's with the best records in one run seasons have not repeated the performance in the seasons preceeding and following them. Odds are we won't win 10 of our next 11 one run games so it'd be nice if we started winning by more runs. Taking Koch out of the closer role could do a lot of good there.

SoxxoS
05-04-2004, 01:56 PM
We will worry about that problem when we come to it. We aren't going to win 64% of our games from now on, either.

Palehose13
05-04-2004, 01:58 PM
Winning one run games is huge, IMO.

I thought I started a thread yesterday about "sac bunts", but maybe I didn't...

I was listening to the O's announcers yesterday and they said that the Sox have more Sac bunts this season than all of last season. Some may not think that we are playing differently, but these two stats (winning one run games and more sac bunts) is showing how different this team is than in the past. I feel good, I feel really good right now.

BRING ON THE TWINS!!!

Paulwny
05-04-2004, 02:05 PM
[QUOTE]Originally posted by jeremyb1
[B] The team's with the best records in one run seasons have not repeated the performance in the seasons preceeding and following them.


Good point, the 59 sox were 35-15 in one run games.
Those are quite a few games where a hit or error could have created loses. We haven't been to a WS since.

MRKARNO
05-04-2004, 02:07 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
We will worry about that problem when we come to it. We aren't going to win 64% of our games from now on, either.

There's one team that I see the White Sox resembling a lot this year: Last year's San Francisco Giants. They had a good bullpen too which enabled them to win a very high percentage of their one run games. (28-12 to be exact) Their starting staff wasnt outstanding 1-5. In fact 7 starters had at least 10 starts and 12 pitchers started at least one. They had Schmidt and Williams at the front end of their rotation however, both very very good. Our starting staff is probably a lot better 1-5 though. Their offense consisted of Bonds primarily, with decent contributions from Grissom, Durham and Jose Cruz. Our offense is much better than theirs because Thomas, while not as good as Bonds is Bonds-like and we just have better hitters overall. Their key was the bullpen undoubtedly:

Tim Worrell 2.87 ERA 38 Saves
Joe Nathan 2.96 ERA 12-4 W-L
Scott Eyre 3.32 ERA
Felix Rodriguez 3.10 ERA 8-2 W-L
Jim Brower 3.96 ERA 8-5 W-L

If we continue to have a strong bullpen (and we can't expect ERAs that low because we're an AL team), we could win 100 games. The only reason this team didnt go anywhere in the playoffs was that they ran into the red-hot Marlins who were gonna beat any team they played.

The San Francisco Giants provide the model for the Sox this year as far as I'm concerned at least but we'll have a slightly worse bullpen and a much better offense and 1-5 pitching staff.

MRKARNO
05-04-2004, 02:11 PM
Assuming we are able to get to the playoffs, this experience in one run games is going to help a lot. Not a lot of 10-5, 8-2 games in the postseason, most of them are one-run games. If we played a team such as NY or Boston who are used to blowouts and dont know how to get it done in close games, we're going to have a big advantage over them.

I know in general that teams with a great record in one run games to start the year generally come down a bit, but this White Sox team has enough talent to back up that .640 winning percentage at this point in time, unlike teams such as the Reds last year.

oheeoh...magglio
05-04-2004, 02:13 PM
I don't know how such a superlative record in 1 run games could be considered a bad thing, if anything I think it shows the following:

1. The team can win close games.
2. The team knows how to win.
3. The team doesn't panic in close games.


All good things IMO.

MRKARNO
05-04-2004, 02:18 PM
The Blowouts will come. We've been able to get it done in close fashion against good teams and decent teams. The AL is in a bit in upheavel right now and once it settles down we'll start blowing out teams. I've been keeping track of 1 run games and blowouts (defined as a 6 run differential or more). So far we've played in only 2 games where there's been such a differential and we've won both. We have not been blown out at all this year; we've been in every game till the end, considering this team can come back from 4 down in the ninth.

Konerko05
05-04-2004, 03:52 PM
[i]Good point, the 59 sox were 35-15 in one run games.
Those are quite a few games where a hit or error could have created loses. We haven't been to a WS since. [/B]

Or take a look at the 2000 Sox.

hold2dibber
05-04-2004, 03:56 PM
Originally posted by oheeoh...magglio
I don't know how such a superlative record in 1 run games could be considered a bad thing, if anything I think it shows the following:

1. The team can win close games.
2. The team knows how to win.
3. The team doesn't panic in close games.


All good things IMO.

Actually, although a good record in one run games may show a little of those things, more than anything it shows they've been lucky.

nasox
05-04-2004, 05:36 PM
I personally am afraid that this team has been lucky more than anything this season. I am happy we are 16-9 and in first place but I have to say, I really am worried about the team. We better start hitting, or at least putting men on base, preferably without two outs in the inning.

Win1ForMe
05-04-2004, 06:01 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
I'm guessing most people see this as a positive and it is in that it has allowed us to win a bunch of games so far but as far as a predictor of future performance it is not a good thing. There have been numerous studies showing teams are incapable of consistently performing incredibly well or poorly in one run games over the course of a season. The team's with the best records in one run seasons have not repeated the performance in the seasons preceeding and following them. Odds are we won't win 10 of our next 11 one run games so it'd be nice if we started winning by more runs. Taking Koch out of the closer role could do a lot of good there.

Tell that to the Twins...

EDIT~!

I actually have numbers to back this up (record and difference between runs scored and runs allowed).

2001--
Twins 85-77 / +5 runs (!!)
Sox 83-79 / +3 run which is actually very good, BUT...

2002--
Twins 94-67 / +56
Sox 81-81 / +58

2003--
Twins 90-72 / +43
Sox 86-76 / +76

While I don't expect us to win every single one-run game, I think we can be very successful in close ball games.

:hawk
"Winning close ball games, it's a MENTALITY..."

Thigpen Rules
05-04-2004, 06:07 PM
What a suprise More Negativity.
I guess it would be better to lose 1 run games, that would mean we will get hot soon,


Winning 1 run games is WHAT Championship teams do. Great Posts about the sac bunts & small ball. We are finding ways to win & thats what matter.

I Believe marlins won alot of 1 run games last year, how did they fair ?

SoxFan76
05-04-2004, 06:14 PM
Originally posted by nasox
I personally am afraid that this team has been lucky more than anything this season. I am happy we are 16-9 and in first place but I have to say, I really am worried about the team. We better start hitting, or at least putting men on base, preferably without two outs in the inning.

I wouldn't be afraid of that. There is so much talent on this team, a lot of this success is not luck.

JRIG
05-04-2004, 06:27 PM
Originally posted by Thigpen Rules
What a suprise More Negativity.
I guess it would be better to lose 1 run games, that would mean we will get hot soon,


Winning 1 run games is WHAT Championship teams do. Great Posts about the sac bunts & small ball. We are finding ways to win & thats what matter.

I Believe marlins won alot of 1 run games last year, how did they fair ?

I'm not sure how realism is confused for negativity. The Sox will not go 40-4 in one-run games this year. More than likely the final total will be a few games over .500 in that department. Winning one-run games has a lot to do with luck. Or a bullpen turning a 3-run win into a one-run win, like last night.

In 6 of the 10 one-run victories for the Sox this season, the team has had at least a two-run lead after the fifth inning. In four of the games, the lead was at least three runs. So if blowing big leads to make games close is the sign of a good team, I guess we're it.

Not playing in a lot of one-run games is what championship teams do. They win a lot of 10-3 or 4-1 games. That's why they're so good.

Marlins were 30-23 last year, by the way.

MRKARNO
05-04-2004, 06:29 PM
The Twins did get to the ALCS in 2002. We're a better team now then they were then

Lip Man 1
05-04-2004, 09:34 PM
The fact that unlike in recent years, the Sox are actually winning these games, says a lot about Ozzie Guillen's impact.

Historical note: According to Elias Sports Bureau, the last time the Sox won ten of their first 11 one run games was back in the 40's. They finished the year at 77-77.

Lip

SoxxoS
05-04-2004, 09:38 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
The fact that unlike in recent years, the Sox are actually winning these games, says a lot about Ozzie Guillen's impact.

Historical note: According to Elias Sports Bureau, the last time the Sox won ten of their first 11 one run games was back in the 40's. They finished the year at 77-77.

Lip

Nothing like Lip to put a little damper on things.