PDA

View Full Version : Harold Reynolds on OBP and some people's obsession with it.


jabrch
05-03-2004, 11:48 AM
Reynolds went off on stats yesterday. He was teeing off on hitters who should be run producers but are taking walks instead of driving in runs. he talked about guys who are basecloggers and who's taking walks actually hurts their club because it takes 2 hits to drive them in every time. Examples he gave were Frank and Giambi, amongst others. His point was that the compulsiveness of some people (didn't mention any by name) towards stats is marginalizing their ability to evaluate the type of talent that actually wins big games. High OBP hitters are nice against marginal pitchers, but stud pitchers tend to shut those guys down.

Now i think frank (and even giambi) is a bad example, cuz in addition to having a high OBP, he also hits HRs and drives in a lot of runs. But I do agree that there are many out there who would lead you to believe you can build a team of obp guys into a championship club - when really what that gets you is a prepetual 90+ win team that has a relatively low degree of likelihood of winning a series vs a team with 3 top tier SPs, when compared to a team that has a few OBP guys at the top of the order, a heart of runproducers, and a few role players in the back of the lineup.

I think Reynolds had a good point - just used a bad example.

MRKARNO
05-03-2004, 11:59 AM
At the beginning of the year it made sense for him to take a lot of walks because he wasnt hitting. Now he's hitting and taking the same amount of walks. This only increases his value to the team. Maybe he can make a run at the MVP again this year if he starts hitting Homers. Remember last year that he had like 12 or so in a very short period. Frank for MVP?
I know it's a little early to start talking that way, but you never know.

npdempse
05-03-2004, 12:02 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
At the beginning of the year it made sense for him to take a lot of walks because he wasnt hitting. Now he's hitting and taking the same amount of walks. This only increases his value to the team. Maybe he can make a run at the MVP again this year if he starts hitting Homers. Remember last year that he had like 12 or so in a very short period. Frank for MVP?
I know it's a little early to start talking that way, but you never know.

Not being protected by Maggs seems to be hurting the quality of the pitches Frank's seeing. If Konerko and Lee start scaring pitchers, Frank should start walking less.

Randar68
05-03-2004, 12:04 PM
Originally posted by npdempse
Not being protected by Maggs seems to be hurting the quality of the pitches Frank's seeing. If Konerko and Lee start scaring pitchers, Frank should start walking less.

This whole thing is asinine. Frank's been taking walks like this since he came into the league. It's not like he's just doing it now because it's in-vogue...

Maggs could learn a thing or 2 from watching Frank. If Maggs worked the count better, he'd end up getting better pitches to hit in the long run.

Frank drawing 4.5 pitches per PA is also helping in tiring the opposing pitchers. I'd bet he's had more 10-pitch AB's than anyone in the majors this year.

Randar68
05-03-2004, 12:05 PM
PS. Harold Reynolds is one of the least knowledgeable "analysts" on television.

More Joe Morgan... Less Harold Reynolds...

Clembasbal
05-03-2004, 12:13 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
PS. Harold Reynolds is one of the least knowledgeable "analysts" on television.

More Joe Morgan... Less Harold Reynolds...

Less Joe Morgan (Idiot) and less Harold Reynolds. This isn't managing a baseball team, you don't have to have baseball experience to analize.

munchman33
05-03-2004, 12:31 PM
I saw this report too, and was rather enraged. What was most troubling was that he was making up statistics to support his case. For instance, he said that Frank only scored 47 runs last year with an OBP of about .490 last year (actually what he has around this year), so the percentage of times he was on base and scored was really bad. Well, Frank only had a .390 OBP last year, and scored 87 runs. He was on base a total of 246 times, which means he scored 35% of the time. Harold himself, while praising Derrick Jeter, said he was good because he would score 30% of the time he got on base.

Just for fun, I checked out Jeters numbers. He was on base 199 times last year, and scored 87 runs, just over 40%.

I really don't see that much of a difference there. The power that Frank provides obviously makes him a better hitter. What in the world is Harold Reynolds smoking?

JRIG
05-03-2004, 12:48 PM
If Thomas is such a base-clogger, then why has he scored 100 or more runs NINE times in his career?

That's more than Roberto Alomar (6), Craig Biggio (7), Barry Larkin (2), Cal Ripken (3), Rafael Palmeiro (4), Kenny Lofton (6), Harold Reynolds (1), John Kruk (1), and basically every other active player except for Rickey Henderson and Barry Bonds. Who, surprise, surprise, have high OBPs as well. Jeff Bagwell, another noted base-clogger, has had eight 100+ run seasons.

PaleHoseGeorge
05-03-2004, 12:55 PM
Originally posted by JRIG
If Thomas is such a base-clogger, then why has he scored 100 or more runs NINE times in his career?

That's more than Roberto Alomar (6), Craig Biggio (7), Barry Larkin (2), Cal Ripken (3), Rafael Palmeiro (4), Kenny Lofton (6), Harold Reynolds (1), John Kruk (1), and basically every other active player except for Rickey Henderson and Barry Bonds. Who, surprise, surprise, have high OBPs as well. Jeff Bagwell, another noted base-clogger, has had eight 100+ run seasons.

You know what I find so amusing about your post? Combined with all the others ripping apart Harold Reynolds, I suddenly had this vision of a tiny rabbit (Reynolds) being torn into tiny shreds of fresh meat for a pack of hungry wolves (intelligent WSI posters).

Noses in the air, can you all give me a howl!

OooWooo!

:)

Randar68
05-03-2004, 01:10 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
You know what I find so amusing about your post? Combined with all the others ripping apart Harold Reynolds, I suddenly had this vision of a tiny rabbit (Reynolds) being torn into tiny shreds of fresh meat for a pack of hungry wolves (intelligent WSI posters).

Noses in the air, can you all give me a howl!

OooWooo!

:)

fquaye149
05-03-2004, 01:21 PM
Originally posted by munchman33
I saw this report too, and was rather enraged. What was most troubling was that he was making up statistics to support his case. For instance, he said that Frank only scored 47 runs last year with an OBP of about .490 last year (actually what he has around this year), so the percentage of times he was on base and scored was really bad. Well, Frank only had a .390 OBP last year, and scored 87 runs. He was on base a total of 246 times, which means he scored 35% of the time. Harold himself, while praising Derrick Jeter, said he was good because he would score 30% of the time he got on base.

Just for fun, I checked out Jeters numbers. He was on base 199 times last year, and scored 87 runs, just over 40%.

I really don't see that much of a difference there. The power that Frank provides obviously makes him a better hitter. What in the world is Harold Reynolds smoking?


if frank thomas scored 87 runs last year 42 of them must be negated because he didn't score them after getting on base. rather, he scored them on home runs. I can understand that. . .although i'm not sure what it proves. A run is a run

BigFrankFan
05-03-2004, 04:39 PM
Reynolds like the moron that he is used a very weak stat to make his point. He looked at the 2003 stats & said Thomas reach based 200+ times & only scored 45 of those times when he walked. Then he looked at I think Soriano or somebody else who scored 95 times.

Even the point he was trying to make it is stupid. Why compare the TOTAL times a leadoff guy scores to only the times when a middle guy scores from a walk? That's just dumb. But then his point was so weak he needed to make the numbers look better. What he should have done is either compare the total runs scored of the 2 players or the runs scored when either of them walk or don't hit a HR. But again even that point is stupid.

If he wants to make a real comparison then he should look at the numbers that REALLY matter:

1) Compare a lead-off guy to a Thomas or Giambi & ask these questions:
How many times does the team win when either guy walks?
How many times do runners advance when either guy walks?
How many times does the team score win either guy walks?

A walk advances team play much more than indiv play.
Apparently everyone but Reynolds & Kruk understand this.

Huisj
05-03-2004, 04:50 PM
harold reynolds is just pissed because his career OBP was .327.

here's my two cents on this: if thomas is taking some walks, that would imply that he's not seeing a lot of pitches in the strike zone. say he hits .300 and draws lots of walks. now say that instead he tries to not draw as many walks and instead starts trying to hit balls that are out of the strike zone more often. would logic not say that this would in fact hurt his batting average? if he hits .300 when he tries to just hit good pitches, wouldn't he probably hit worse on pitches out of the zone? it seems that this would make his BA and OBP go down.

then again, this would benefit the sox offense if he was on base less because it wouldn't clog up the bases as much.

BeerHandle
05-03-2004, 04:50 PM
The amount of walks that Frank takes is great! He is second in the AL at how many pitches he sees per at bat. Frank fouls off a lot of balls, gets singles, doubles and homers.

Hopefully Calros can start bringing him in!

Reynolds is an idiot.

GO FRANK!

Win1ForMe
05-03-2004, 04:53 PM
The IQ level drops considerably when Reynolds opens his mouth. Seriously, I felt as if watching the Holy Trinity of dopes with Berman, Reynolds, and Kruk yesterday.

Plus, he doesn't even know what he's talking about with the stats he brings up. According to H.R., Thomas scored only 45 times last year, so of course I checked it, and it was 87 times. Shouldn't ESPN have some sort of facts checker so their "on-air personalities" don't embarrass themselves?

PaleHoseGeorge
05-03-2004, 04:59 PM
Originally posted by Huisj
harold reynolds is just pissed because his career OBP was .327.

here's my two cents on this: if thomas is taking some walks, that would imply that he's not seeing a lot of pitches in the strike zone. say he hits .300 and draws lots of walks. now say that instead he tries to not draw as many walks and instead starts trying to hit balls that are out of the strike zone more often. would logic not say that this would in fact hurt his batting average? if he hits .300 when he tries to just hit good pitches, wouldn't he probably hit worse on pitches out of the zone? it seems that this would make his BA and OBP go down.

then again, this would benefit the sox offense if he was on base less because it wouldn't clog up the bases as much.

Oh, now be careful. You're coming dangerously close to pissing off the Friends of Konerko who are fighting mad at the Konerko Haters for everyone not loving Paulie like they do. Nevermind even a moron like ESPN'S Harold Reynolds is smart enough to admit A.L. pitchers are walking Frank Thomas so they can pitch to (and get out) Lee and Konerko instead.

The Friends of Konerko are going to be awfully pissed at you!

:smile:

longshot7
05-03-2004, 05:03 PM
Reynolds needs to read Moneyball .....

faneidde
05-03-2004, 05:20 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Oh, now be careful. You're coming dangerously close to pissing off the Friends of Konerko who are fighting mad at the Konerko Haters for everyone not loving Paulie like they do. Nevermind even a moron like ESPN'S Harold Reynolds is smart enough to admit A.L. pitchers are walking Frank Thomas so they can pitch to (and get out) Lee and Konerko instead.

The Friends of Konerko are going to be awfully pissed at you!

:smile:
I gotta admit I got a chuckle out of that, but teams pitched around Frank for as long as I can remember. Even with Mags behind him, he was still pitched around occasionally. Also, its hard to fault Konerko for Frank being pitched around. Carlos Lee is batting .253 right now, that is not Paulie's fault. Unless of course, teams are so eager to pitch to PK that they aren't giving Carlos anything to hit either. He must be swining at balls out of the zone, because if it gets to Konerko with a man on first, there is a 99% of a GIDP.

Also, I'm not really a huge PK fan. I'm just not anti-PK like so many people are around here.

Randar68
05-03-2004, 05:26 PM
Originally posted by longshot7
Reynolds needs to read Moneyball .....

Just what we need, another person ranting on and on about how great Chad Bradford is and how wonderful Jeremy Brown is, even though he has to wear a "bro"...

MRKARNO
05-03-2004, 05:41 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Just what we need, another person ranting on and on about how great Chad Bradford is and how wonderful Jeremy Brown is, even though he has to wear a "bro"...

I read moneyball and it really opened up my knowledge of baseball and the use and understanding of statistics. What it did not do was turn me into a "statistics are the end-all" person, but I consider Baseball Prospectus-type advanced stats to be very important when looking at major league talent nowadays, but you cant depend on it when evaluating non-major league talent.

Nard
05-03-2004, 05:45 PM
The way Harold was talking about Frank and OBP, and Giambi and those other guys he was insulting for that matter, it's as if Frank was out there every day bragging about his OBP.

I remember when they were showing all the homers. They got to Frank, and Chris goes, "Frank is back! After a couple of down season..." and Harold finds it necessary to quirk, "Yeah, they might put him in the hall with that on-base percentage."

Has Frank ever said a word about his AL-leading OBP? If he used it to brag, believe me, I'd be the first one out there laughing at him.

Harold just a dumbass.

BigFrankFan
05-03-2004, 05:45 PM
Originally posted by Win1ForMe
The IQ level drops considerably when Reynolds opens his mouth. Seriously, I felt as if watching the Holy Trinity of dopes with Berman, Reynolds, and Kruk yesterday.

Plus, he doesn't even know what he's talking about with the stats he brings up. According to H.R., Thomas scored only 45 times last year, so of course I checked it, and it was 87 times. Shouldn't ESPN have some sort of facts checker so their "on-air personalities" don't embarrass themselves?

He's so <censor> stupid he should be FIRED!
Have an apprentice show for his job. His so-called number was derived by subtracting Thomas' HR from his Runs scored. Of course the
<censor> bag didn't bother to do that for the guys he was comparing him to.

How dumb is his Patterson remark?
Thomas reached base 180+ times MORE than Patterson in the last 2 years. So I think Harold ought to keep his mouth shut on the subject until Patterson closes that gap. Oh maybe when Thomas retires I would say :D: