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poorme
04-28-2004, 12:00 PM
In 73 AAA ab's, he's walked twice. Hope Guillen didn't offer him any batting advice during spring training.

BigFrankFan
04-28-2004, 12:02 PM
Originally posted by poorme
In 73 AAA ab's, he's walked twice. Hope Guillen didn't offer him any batting advice during spring training.

I'm not sure what that means though. He's hitting over 350.
That might have more to do with the talent around him than any thing else. How many K's does he have in those 73 AAA ab's?

SoxxoS
04-28-2004, 12:06 PM
Originally posted by BigFrankFan
I'm not sure what that means though. He's hitting over 350.
That might have more to do with the talent around him than any thing else. How many K's does he have in those 73 AAA ab's?

He's struck out 11 times...most at the beginning of the season when he was struggling.

Does anyone know if management is just telling Reed to get his swing back...to forget about the walks...?

On the bright side...he's stole 5 bases and been caught stealing 0 times.

poorme
04-28-2004, 12:06 PM
11.

Borchard bats behind him. Maybe pitchers are afraid to walk him.

BigFrankFan
04-28-2004, 12:09 PM
Originally posted by poorme
11.
Borchard bats behind him. Maybe pitchers are afraid to walk him.

I'd be afraid to walk him if Borchy's next. I know many people are down on Joe but he's always had a high RISP. Is that still true?

Randar68
04-28-2004, 12:10 PM
Originally posted by poorme
11.

Borchard bats behind him. Maybe pitchers are afraid to walk him.

Don't worry about it. He's a contact hitter who won't likely ever walk 100 times in a season. If he hits .325 as a pro, it won't matter, but if he ends up being only a .290 MLB hitter, he won't have a superior OBP to show for it.

Many of last season's walks came from being pitched around. He hit over .400 in AA, but his OBP was only in the .470 range... Hitters with exceptional eyes at the plate often have .100 point or more difference between average and OBP...

Reed only took 29 walks in 242 AB's in AA, so don't get too worked up about low walk totals. He's moving so quickly because he puts the bat on the ball, the walks will come back once he get's more experience and spends more time at the higher/highest levels

jeremyb1
04-28-2004, 12:11 PM
It's a bit of a concern but we're talking about a really small sample size here so it can't be considered too serious.

NonetheLoaiza
04-28-2004, 12:34 PM
Im a little concerned over the walk totals at the top of the lineup for the Sox. Does anyone know what the total is? It just seems that with the exception of Uribe, noone seems to be patient. I could be wrong. though.

Randar68
04-28-2004, 12:44 PM
Originally posted by NonetheLoaiza
Im a little concerned over the walk totals at the top of the lineup for the Sox. Does anyone know what the total is? It just seems that with the exception of Uribe, noone seems to be patient. I could be wrong. though.

That's a general problem with Sox hitters the past several years. Outside of Frank, nobody has posted a .400 OBP in a LONG LONG time. It leads to bad slumps and big outbursts... inconsistent offense.

The Sox have focused on some more disciplined hitters in their last 2 drafts or so (although not exclusively).

Reed's walk totals are the primary reason I think he'd be a prototype #2 hitter and might be out of place at lead-off (although it is probably better than what we have now)...

poorme
04-28-2004, 12:47 PM
If Reed can keep his walk totals reasonable, say around 60/year, that's ok, but if we're talking 20/year, it largely eliminates his only real top notch-skill (getting on base). I'm assuming his current pace is an aberration, but I will be monitoring it.

SEALgep
04-28-2004, 12:50 PM
Keep in mind that Reed hasn't faced the great majority of these AAA pitchers before. Maybe he is making good contact with pitches that shouldn't be swung at. Don't know, but .350 is a pretty good OBP, let alone average. I'll take it, especially since again he hasn't faced these guys before.

MisterB
04-28-2004, 01:05 PM
Originally posted by poorme
Borchard bats behind him. Maybe pitchers are afraid to walk him.

If they are, it's from reputation more than results. Bazooka Joe's average is in the .220's and his slugging is under .360. Oddly enough though Joe's drawn 9 walks so far, presumably from being pitched around (reputation again, I guess). Charlotte is sporting a pretty hideous lineup so far. Reed and Nelson Bryant are the only 2 on the roster with a average over .260 (not counting the .265 that belongs to ML callup Kelly Dransfeldt).

jeremyb1
04-28-2004, 02:14 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Many of last season's walks came from being pitched around. He hit over .400 in AA, but his OBP was only in the .470 range... Hitters with exceptional eyes at the plate often have .100 point or more difference between average and OBP...

Reed only took 29 walks in 242 AB's in AA, so don't get too worked up about low walk totals. He's moving so quickly because he puts the bat on the ball, the walks will come back once he get's more experience and spends more time at the higher/highest levels

I don't think it makes sense to look only at his AA plate appearances. In general, if you hit .400 your walk totals will decrease some because you're hitting the ball hard in play often instead of fouling balls off and working the count. If you take Reed's full season last year he walked 70 times which is pretty solid especially for a guy without a ton of power. He might not walk 100 times at the big league level but he certainly looks above average in the plate discipline category. It wouldn't be far fetched in my opinion to suggest he'd have the second best strike zone judgement on the club now behind Frank.

jeremyb1
05-10-2004, 12:44 PM
Originally posted by poorme
In 73 AAA ab's, he's walked twice. Hope Guillen didn't offer him any batting advice during spring training.

Reed is now up to 14 walks and a .400 OBP in approximately 130 plate appearances after 3 BB's yesterday so I think it is safe to return to the assumption that he has outstanding plate discipline. It'd be nice to give him time to adjust to AAA and delay arbitration and free agency but the bottom line is he can improve our chances of winning immediately so we need to strongly consider calling him up soon.

poorme
05-10-2004, 12:53 PM
Ironic he started walking and his average tumbled about 50 points down to .313.

And yes, he should be in the majors.

Randar68
05-10-2004, 12:54 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Reed is now up to 14 walks and a .400 OBP in approximately 130 plate appearances after 3 BB's yesterday so I think it is safe to return to the assumption that he has outstanding plate discipline. It'd be nice to give him time to adjust to AAA and delay arbitration and free agency but the bottom line is he can improve our chances of winning immediately so we need to strongly consider calling him up soon.

At one point, IIRC, he had something like 12 K's and 3 BB's, and he's now at 16 K's and 14 BB's.

I have reiterated before and will do so again. Reed is not the kind of player who is likely to post a .400 OBP due to his walks. He won't K a lot, will hit for a high average, and on the MLB level, once he get's settled, will probably walk somewhere around 65-85 times a year with something like 50-60 K's a year.

Each step of the way, as he's been promoted, there has been a brief adjustment period where his K's were a little higher and BB's a little down. He has already been through that period in Charlotte. Again, I think it's just something that speaks to his amazingly short learning curve and his strong mental approach to the game.

SoxxoS
05-10-2004, 01:07 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Each step of the way, as he's been promoted, there has been a brief adjustment period where his K's were a little higher and BB's a little down. He has already been through that period in Charlotte. Again, I think it's just something that speaks to his amazingly short learning curve and his string mental approach to the game.

I don't think we should ever bring him up then I don't want to hear "another overrated prospect" and "He's not ready" if he struggles a little bit.

jeremyb1
05-10-2004, 01:11 PM
Originally posted by poorme
Ironic he started walking and his average tumbled about 50 points down to .313.

And yes, he should be in the majors.

Or he started hitting less and happened to walk more. Regardless his OBP is up so especially for a guy that projects as a top of the lineup hitter I don't see any kind of downside.

TaylorStSox
05-10-2004, 03:09 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
At one point, IIRC, he had something like 12 K's and 3 BB's, and he's now at 16 K's and 14 BB's.

I have reiterated before and will do so again. Reed is not the kind of player who is likely to post a .400 OBP due to his walks. He won't K a lot, will hit for a high average, and on the MLB level, once he get's settled, will probably walk somewhere around 65-85 times a year with something like 50-60 K's a year.

Each step of the way, as he's been promoted, there has been a brief adjustment period where his K's were a little higher and BB's a little down. He has already been through that period in Charlotte. Again, I think it's just something that speaks to his amazingly short learning curve and his string mental approach to the game.


Isn't it funny how guys become myths so quickly? I've heard comments that Reed "walks a ton." lol. He's never walked a ton at any level. People need to understand that he's a real good contact hitter who likes to swing. For that reason, he'll probably struggle for a while when he comes up.

He's not Jesus. People shouldn't expect him to be. I'd be happy to see him go 270/15/70 in his first year.

rdivaldi
05-10-2004, 03:39 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
Isn't it funny how guys become myths so quickly? I've heard comments that Reed "walks a ton." lol. He's never walked a ton at any level.

Um, I think you should rethink that statement. Jeremy walked 41 times in 222 at bats in Winston-Salem last year.

Randar68
05-10-2004, 03:41 PM
Originally posted by rdivaldi
Um, I think you should rethink that statement. Jeremy walked 41 times in 222 at bats in Winston-Salem last year.

Well, he was essentially pitched around his whole time in High-A ball, essentially a level on par with his collegiate experience. Those nubers aren't an indication of the reality...

TaylorStSox
05-10-2004, 03:54 PM
Originally posted by rdivaldi
Um, I think you should rethink that statement. Jeremy walked 41 times in 222 at bats in Winston-Salem last year.

For comparison's sake, Carlos Lee is on pace to have better BB numbers in the same AB's. Would you say that he has good plate discipline or patience?

SoxxoS
05-10-2004, 03:55 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
For comparison's sake, Carlos Lee is on pace to have better BB numbers in the same AB's. Would you say that he has good plate discipline or patience?

He did in 2002.

TaylorStSox
05-10-2004, 04:01 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
He did in 2002.

What about the other 4 years he's been in the league?


Anyway, my point is that there's a group on here that are deifying Jeremy Reed. It's unfair to the kid. Half of them will villify him when he comes up and struggles.

Randar68
05-10-2004, 04:03 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
What about the other 4 years he's been in the league?


Anyway, my point is that there's a group on here that are deifying Jeremy Reed. It's unfair to the kid. Half of them will villify him when he comes up and struggles.

That's the truth, but Taylor, it's the way of life around here. It's not worth arguing about now, just practice your eye-rolls in anticipation of needing it later.

TaylorStSox
05-10-2004, 04:08 PM
True. It's discouraging to hear people put unfair expectations on him. He's not going to steal many bases. He's servicable in CF but not a true/ideal CF'er. His arm is average. He'll proabably struggle. He's not going to walk a ton.

He's going to put the ball in play though. Hopefully those balls will find holes and be driven into the gaps.

These are all things I've read about him on this site in the past few weeks.

Rex Hudler
05-10-2004, 04:29 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
True. It's discouraging to hear people put unfair expectations on him. He's not going to steal many bases. He's servicable in CF but not a true/ideal CF'er. His arm is average. He'll proabably struggle. He's not going to walk a ton.

He's going to put the ball in play though. Hopefully those balls will find holes and be driven into the gaps.

These are all things I've read about him on this site in the past few weeks.

Man, who peed in your Cheerios this morning?

Reed's walk rate is very good. His strikeout rate is very low. He hits for high average. What else do you want?

You complain he had only 29 BB in 242 AB's in Birmingham last year? The guy mixed in 99 hits, when did he have time to walk a lot?

The Oakland A's organization has a benchmark for Minor Leaguers to work towards and that is 10 BB/100 AB. Reed is well above that. Is he Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn? no But come on man, relax.

Randar68
05-10-2004, 04:31 PM
Originally posted by Rex Hudler
Man, who peed in your Cheerios this morning?

Reed's walk rate is very good. His strikeout rate is very low. He hits for high average. What else do you want?

You complain he had only 29 BB in 242 AB's in Birmingham last year? The guy mixed in 99 hits, when did he have time to walk a lot?

The Oakland A's organization has a benchmark for Minor Leaguers to work towards and that is 10 BB/100 AB. Reed is well above that. Is he Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn? no But come on man, relax.

He's not complaining about Reed, but moreso the unfair and unrealistic expectations some have placed on him.

I agree, frankly, that many have made him into a low-power Frank Thomas at the plate.

SoxxoS
05-10-2004, 04:39 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
I agree, frankly, that many have made him into a low-power Frank Thomas at the plate.

And the problem is...

TaylorStSox
05-10-2004, 04:39 PM
Originally posted by Rex Hudler
Man, who peed in your Cheerios this morning?

Reed's walk rate is very good. His strikeout rate is very low. He hits for high average. What else do you want?

You complain he had only 29 BB in 242 AB's in Birmingham last year? The guy mixed in 99 hits, when did he have time to walk a lot?

The Oakland A's organization has a benchmark for Minor Leaguers to work towards and that is 10 BB/100 AB. Reed is well above that. Is he Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn? no But come on man, relax.


I think you're misunderstanding me. I want him to succeed as much as anyone. Hell, I've followed his career since we drafted him. The thing I don't want is unrealistic expectations to be brought on him.

Expecting a kid whose 2 years removed from college to be the answer to alot of our problems (CF/2 hole hitter) isn't realistic IMO.

Again, I really do hope I eat crow on this one.

jeremyb1
05-10-2004, 06:11 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
True. It's discouraging to hear people put unfair expectations on him. He's not going to steal many bases. He's servicable in CF but not a true/ideal CF'er. His arm is average. He'll proabably struggle. He's not going to walk a ton.

He's going to put the ball in play though. Hopefully those balls will find holes and be driven into the gaps.

These are all things I've read about him on this site in the past few weeks.

I don't know. It depends on what you mean by "walk a ton". We have a team with pretty poor plate discipline. Walking a ton wouldn't necessarily be 100 walks. 70 would fit the bill in my opinion. We're talking about a guy who walked 70 times last season and is on pace to walk about 70 times again this season. He probably won't hit as well and won't see as many mistake pitches in the majors so that only increases the odds he will draw walks. Only Lee and Thomas are on pace to walk 70 times so that'd be pretty outsanding.

jeremyb1
05-10-2004, 06:14 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
What about the other 4 years he's been in the league?

I don't get it. Reed has walked at a strong rate throughout his entire minor league career. There's no reason to suggest that skill does not exist. Lee is on pace for 92 walks, if he keeps it up that'll be a season with oustanding discipline regardless of whether or not its Carlos Lee that put up the numbers.

MRKARNO
05-10-2004, 06:23 PM
People need to understand who Reed has the potential to be most like. That player is Tony Gwynn:

http://baseballreference.com/g/gwynnto01.shtml

Maybe Reed has a about 20-30 walks a year worth of better patience as his ceiling, but Gwynn provides the ideal for Jeremy Reed. Reed is never going to hit for a lot of power. He's probably never going to walk 100 times in a season. If he turns out to be as good as he could be, he could have 2000-3000 hits in his major league career.

Randar68
05-10-2004, 06:40 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
People need to understand who Reed has the potential to be most like. That player is Tony Gwynn:

http://baseballreference.com/g/gwynnto01.shtml

Maybe Reed has a about 20-30 walks a year worth of better patience as his ceiling, but Gwynn provides the ideal for Jeremy Reed. Reed is never going to hit for a lot of power. He's probably never going to walk 100 times in a season. If he turns out to be as good as he could be, he could have 2000-3000 hits in his major league career.

This is the kind of post TaylorSox is complaining about. Not that it "isn't" his high-ceiling point, but making posts like this allows people to point at you and say, "Look, expert XYZ says he's going to be like Tony Gwynn", etc etc etc.

It may not be your intent to make those kinds of statements or predictions, but many people aren't adept enough at reading into those statements to not be able to tell that.



BTW, 2000-3000 hits is a remarkable feat requiring, most often, 20 or more years as a major league regular. Reed is already 22 and will have to hit like Hell until he's 40 to even have a shot at 3,000.

Ask Frank. Guys who take walks have a hard time reaching those plateau's because each walk essentially gives up an AB in those types of stats.

Again, Reed will likely never walk 100 times in a season, and realistically, a .315 average with a .370-.380 OBP would be a reasonable expectation level ONCE HE IS ACCLIMATED. People just have to be willing to give him some time to adjust and play through that period before they jump all over him for any particular perceived weakness.

MRKARNO
05-10-2004, 06:53 PM
Randar, I really just use Gwynn to illustrate what Reed is going to be along this lines of as you said. Is he the next Tony Gwynn? Possibly, but unlikely. Tony Gwynn was a very special player, but you also have to keep this in mind:

As special as Gwynn is, they manage to send 2-3 players to Cooperstown every year. Reed was voted the 2nd prospect in all of baseball by baseball prospectus, which indicates that Reed very well could be a special player. The people on this board have to remember that there is no such thing as a hall-of fame lock! Look at what Thomas has done and he is not an absolute lock for cooperstown, though he should be. The people on the North Side are confident that Wood and Prior are both locks for cooperstown, but both could easily regress, have other problems, etc. All I'm trying to say is that Gwynn is more of an ideal player for Reed than a power hitter like a Barry Bonds. That being said, Reed has a better chance than most prospects along his lines to actually come close to these very high ideals.

jeremyb1
05-10-2004, 07:07 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
This is the kind of post TaylorSox is complaining about. Not that it "isn't" his high-ceiling point, but making posts like this allows people to point at you and say, "Look, expert XYZ says he's going to be like Tony Gwynn", etc etc etc.

It may not be your intent to make those kinds of statements or predictions, but many people aren't adept enough at reading into those statements to not be able to tell that.

BTW, 2000-3000 hits is a remarkable feat requiring, most often, 20 or more years as a major league regular. Reed is already 22 and will have to hit like Hell until he's 40 to even have a shot at 3,000.

Ask Frank. Guys who take walks have a hard time reaching those plateau's because each walk essentially gives up an AB in those types of stats.

Again, Reed will likely never walk 100 times in a season, and realistically, a .315 average with a .370-.380 OBP would be a reasonable expectation level ONCE HE IS ACCLIMATED. People just have to be willing to give him some time to adjust and play through that period before they jump all over him for any particular perceived weakness.

I don't understand the reasoning behind that analysis at all. Why can Reed maintain his strong batting average from the minors but not his strong plate discipline?

As far as the Gwynn comparison, I think it's wrong to assume that when people make that comparison they're necessarily thinking in terms of the length of Reed's career instead of simply his skill set and his rate stats in his peak seasons. I'm not sure Reed will have seasons when he hits well above .350 as Gwynn did so his career average will probably be lower. Otherwise, the comparison isn't as ridiculous as you seem to think in my opinion.

I guess you can argue that it is unfair to project too far ahead for a minor league player but it has been shown that there is a relationship between minor and major league stats especially amongst position players and most minor league players never hit .400 at any stop. Through his first two years in pro baseball, Tony Gwynn is the second most comparable player to Reed statistically so I don't think its an unreasonable stretch as long as people use due caution and realize that doesn't mean Reed is a hall of famer.

Randar68
05-10-2004, 08:05 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
I don't understand the reasoning behind that analysis at all. Why can Reed maintain his strong batting average from the minors but not his strong plate discipline?

Who said that? How does 65-85 walk per year equal a regression in plate discipline? Sorry, jeremy, i don't follow.

Originally posted by jeremyb1
As far as the Gwynn comparison, I think it's wrong to assume that when people make that comparison they're necessarily thinking in terms of the length of Reed's career instead of simply his skill set and his rate stats in his peak seasons. I'm not sure Reed will have seasons when he hits well above .350 as Gwynn did so his career average will probably be lower. Otherwise, the comparison isn't as ridiculous as you seem to think in my opinion.

I guess you can argue that it is unfair to project too far ahead for a minor league player but it has been shown that there is a relationship between minor and major league stats especially among position players and most minor league players never hit .400 at any stop. Through his first two years in pro baseball, Tony Gwynn is the second most comparable player to Reed statistically so I don't think its an unreasonable stretch as long as people use due caution and realize that doesn't mean Reed is a hall of famer.

Unfortunately, over time, I've learned that it is too much to expect for the majority of people to use caution. Therefore, people, ESPECIALLY WHEN EVALUATING PROSPECTS, should avoid comparisons to HOF'ers and perennial All-Stars. It sets The bar unreasonably high for these guys. when they sputter in the least, people like Lip just sit around and stew and vent to the rest of us how "another over-hyped failed White Sox prospect."

MRKARNO
05-10-2004, 08:12 PM
Originally posted by Randar68

Unfortunately, over time, I've learned that it is too much to expect for the majority of people to use caution. Therefore, people, ESPECIALLY WHEN EVALUATING PROSPECTS, should avoid comparisons to HOF'ers and perennial All-Stars. It sets The bar unreasonably high for these guys. when they sputter in the least, people like Lip just sit around and stew and vent to the rest of us how "another over-hyped failed White Sox prospect."

The reason that people use HOF's and perennial HOFers is because those are the types of players that people know and relate to. Clearly it's misunderstood by many people, but not everyone knows 1000's of hitters to compare to so it provides a pretty convinient way to describe a player. The pessimists will get their shots in any way they can. Just point out that they are incorrect if or when the time comes.

SoxxoS
05-10-2004, 08:18 PM
It's enjoyable to me when I have to take crap from my rommate for telling him we had the next Mark McGwire...in Joe Borchard.

I have learned to just let hyped prospects do their thing...and after a while...then you can start to brag that you have him.

batmanZoSo
05-10-2004, 08:30 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
It's enjoyable to me when I have to take crap from my rommate for telling him we had the next Mark McGwire...in Joe Borchard.

I have learned to just let hyped prospects do their thing...and after a while...then you can start to brag that you have him.

I read that Borchard's "ungodly power from both sides of the plate is reminiscent of Mickey Mantle." Don't feel bad.

johnny_mostil
05-10-2004, 08:35 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Well, he was essentially pitched around his whole time in High-A ball, essentially a level on par with his collegiate experience. Those nubers aren't an indication of the reality...

They don't "pitch around" hitters much in A ball, or AA for that matter. Usually the pitcher just can't throw strikes.

johnny_mostil
05-10-2004, 08:37 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
People need to understand who Reed has the potential to be most like. That player is Tony Gwynn:

http://baseballreference.com/g/gwynnto01.shtml

Maybe Reed has a about 20-30 walks a year worth of better patience as his ceiling, but Gwynn provides the ideal for Jeremy Reed. Reed is never going to hit for a lot of power. He's probably never going to walk 100 times in a season. If he turns out to be as good as he could be, he could have 2000-3000 hits in his major league career.

When Robin Ventura came up, we were assured that he would never develop much power and we should just be happy with line drivers all over the park. That is not what happened. Projecting a 22-year-old is very difficult, but generally (a) they develop more power and (b) they develop more patience.

johnny_mostil
05-10-2004, 08:43 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
I don't know. It depends on what you mean by "walk a ton". We have a team with pretty poor plate discipline. Walking a ton wouldn't necessarily be 100 walks. 70 would fit the bill in my opinion. We're talking about a guy who walked 70 times last season and is on pace to walk about 70 times again this season. He probably won't hit as well and won't see as many mistake pitches in the majors so that only increases the odds he will draw walks. Only Lee and Thomas are on pace to walk 70 times so that'd be pretty outsanding.

Really? Thomas is on pace to walk about 150 times. The test for "enough" walks is 1 per 10AB, at least according to Billy Beane. That applies, right now, to Thomas, Lee, Konerko, and Olivo. Willie is close, and Ordonez and Uribe are too. That's 6 of 9. The team is on pace to walk about 590 times, which would have been third last year behind the Red Sox and the Yankees, impressive considering the Sox do not get the kinds of cheap "ball" calls that the Yankees get routinely.

johnny_mostil
05-10-2004, 08:47 PM
Originally posted by batmanZoSo
I read that Borchard's "ungodly power from both sides of the plate is reminiscent of Mickey Mantle." Don't feel bad.

Borchard's ungodly power is a subjective comment. And Joe Borchard didn't hit .400 in AA ball.

People are forgetting that Charlotte is not exactly Denver as far as hitting. It's a tough place to hit. .312 (or whatever) for a 22-year-old kid in his first month of AAA in Charlotte is excellent.

batmanZoSo
05-10-2004, 08:47 PM
Originally posted by johnny_mostil
When Robin Ventura came up, we were assured that he would never develop much power and we should just be happy with line drivers all over the park. That is not what happened. Projecting a 22-year-old is very difficult, but generally (a) they develop more power and (b) they develop more patience.

Didn't Ventura set home run records at OSU?

jeremyb1
05-10-2004, 09:05 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
[B]Who said that? How does 65-85 walk per year equal a regression in plate discipline? Sorry, jeremy, i don't follow.

You said at his peak Reed could hit .315 with a .370-.380 OBP. Assuming about 550 plate appearances that's around 45 walks not 65-85. For instance, right now Reed is hitting .315 and his OBP is .400.

Randar68
05-10-2004, 09:45 PM
Originally posted by johnny_mostil
They don't "pitch around" hitters much in A ball, or AA for that matter. Usually the pitcher just can't throw strikes.

They do when he hits .350.

Randar68
05-10-2004, 09:52 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
You said at his peak Reed could hit .315 with a .370-.380 OBP. Assuming about 550 plate appearances that's around 45 walks not 65-85. For instance, right now Reed is hitting .315 and his OBP is .400.

Great with stats, but a little slow with common sense. i was trying to illustrate that his hitting for average is likely to surpass his reputation for taking walks, which HAS been exaggerated. He played at 3 levels last year, 2 of which were equal or lesser than the competition he faced in college.

Stats again have a place in the game, but absolute blindness caused by numbers on a piece of paper are good way to ignore common sense, which, as it turns out, isn't so common...

Paulwny
05-11-2004, 12:13 PM
Originally posted by Randar68

Stats again have a place in the game, but absolute blindness caused by numbers on a piece of paper are good way to ignore common sense, which, as it turns out, isn't so common...

EXCELLANT, I couldn't have said it better.

jeremyb1
05-11-2004, 02:33 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Great with stats, but a little slow with common sense. i was trying to illustrate that his hitting for average is likely to surpass his reputation for taking walks, which HAS been exaggerated. He played at 3 levels last year, 2 of which were equal or lesser than the competition he faced in college.

Stats again have a place in the game, but absolute blindness caused by numbers on a piece of paper are good way to ignore common sense, which, as it turns out, isn't so common...

Well you were the one that decided to list what you view to be his probable stats at his peak. Why I am responsible for relying too heavily on statistics instead of common sense?

Again, I don't think it is merely a reputation of taking walks. Reed has actually done this. He walked 70 times last season, he's on pace to do so again I think he has a good shot at doing so in the majors, especially in his peak.

Randar68
05-11-2004, 02:37 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Well you were the one that decided to list what you view to be his probable stats at his peak. Why I am responsible for relying too heavily on statistics instead of common sense?

Again, I don't think it is merely a reputation of taking walks. Reed has actually done this. He walked 70 times last season, he's on pace to do so again I think he has a good shot at doing so in the majors, especially in his peak.

It's called tempered enthusiasm. I'm sorry I didn't "do the math" before posting it, jeremy. I don't always have my calculator handy. Sorry oh mathematician. Making posts about how he's going to have a .425 OBP is not going to help anyone, especially if he struggles at all.