jeremyb1
04-26-2004, 03:18 PM
No Relief: Maybe because everyone's more comfortable categorizing things, but whatever the reason, the media won't seem to leave manager Ozzie Guillen to make use his bullpen as he chooses and instead require him to label someone "closer" and everyone else as "lacking that secret special closer stuff". The choice for the ultimate fireman is still between Billy Koch and Damaso Marte. Assuming that the White Sox are still stuck in the mode of the classic closer usage--and there's little reason to think that they're not--there's little reason for Guillen to consider Koch the top reliever in the pen.
Koch's numbers from the past few seasons:
Year ARP EqBB9 EqSO9 EqHR9
2003 -8.6 4.6 7.0 1.6
2002 12.4 4.1 8.6 0.6
2001 -2.0 4.0 6.6 0.8
(ARP is Michael Wolverton's Adjusted Runs Prevented, a key stat for relievers whose ERA and other stats are often clouded by their stuttered usage.)
Koch has always been wild, but he's been making a living in baseball because he can sometimes hit triple digits on the gun. As that's no longer the case, Koch has become hittable. His fastball has virtually no movement and the rest of his pitches are below average, leaving him totally dependent on velocity to get outs. This situation isn't a case of performance analysts versus traditional baseball men; it's not an issue of EqBB9 versus "closer makeup"; there's no reason for Koch to be used in anything resembling a high leverage situation for the Sox and it's debatable if he's even above replacement level at this point. Koch looks like Yosemite Sam, used to throw fast, and acts like a closer, but those are his only claims to the role; Guillen needs to recognize that and put the issue to rest.
Despite the well-publicized implosion--as much Koch's doing as Marte's--in the first game of the season, Marte has been perfect when called upon this season. He is clearly the top man in the bullpen and should be used as such. If Guillen recognizes that the highest leverage innings are not necessarily save situations, then all the better for ChiSox faithful, but the least he could do is use Marte to lock up the ninth.
Scott Free: On the other hand, the "experiment" of moving Scott Schoeneweis into the starting rotation has turned out well so far. Schoeneweis was in top form in 6.2 scoreless innings against the Rays and he two decent starts against the vaunted Yankees offense. There is some cause for concern at this point with a seven-to-nine strikeout to walk ratio, but Schoeneweis's K-rate has been increasing steadily for several seasons, a nice compliment to his low walk-rate. The Sox knew that replacing Bartolo Colon would be difficult, but Schoeneweis has done an admirable job thus far and he didn't cost the Sox the buckets of cash that Colon or a comparable free agent pitcher was demanding on the market. There's little reason at this point to think that he can't continue to fill the role adequately.
One of the main improvements Schoeneweis made last season to compliment his increased K-rate is his drastically decreased HR-rate. Having surrendered 21 and 17 dingers in 205.1 and 118 IP in 2001 and 2002, Schoeneweis kept all but three balls in the yard last year in 64.2 innings. Jorge Posada's shot off Schoeneweis in his first start has been his only blemish in that department this season. A slight increase in strikeouts would be encouraging, but for the time being, whatever adjustments Schoeneweis has made are working well.
http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2806
Koch's numbers from the past few seasons:
Year ARP EqBB9 EqSO9 EqHR9
2003 -8.6 4.6 7.0 1.6
2002 12.4 4.1 8.6 0.6
2001 -2.0 4.0 6.6 0.8
(ARP is Michael Wolverton's Adjusted Runs Prevented, a key stat for relievers whose ERA and other stats are often clouded by their stuttered usage.)
Koch has always been wild, but he's been making a living in baseball because he can sometimes hit triple digits on the gun. As that's no longer the case, Koch has become hittable. His fastball has virtually no movement and the rest of his pitches are below average, leaving him totally dependent on velocity to get outs. This situation isn't a case of performance analysts versus traditional baseball men; it's not an issue of EqBB9 versus "closer makeup"; there's no reason for Koch to be used in anything resembling a high leverage situation for the Sox and it's debatable if he's even above replacement level at this point. Koch looks like Yosemite Sam, used to throw fast, and acts like a closer, but those are his only claims to the role; Guillen needs to recognize that and put the issue to rest.
Despite the well-publicized implosion--as much Koch's doing as Marte's--in the first game of the season, Marte has been perfect when called upon this season. He is clearly the top man in the bullpen and should be used as such. If Guillen recognizes that the highest leverage innings are not necessarily save situations, then all the better for ChiSox faithful, but the least he could do is use Marte to lock up the ninth.
Scott Free: On the other hand, the "experiment" of moving Scott Schoeneweis into the starting rotation has turned out well so far. Schoeneweis was in top form in 6.2 scoreless innings against the Rays and he two decent starts against the vaunted Yankees offense. There is some cause for concern at this point with a seven-to-nine strikeout to walk ratio, but Schoeneweis's K-rate has been increasing steadily for several seasons, a nice compliment to his low walk-rate. The Sox knew that replacing Bartolo Colon would be difficult, but Schoeneweis has done an admirable job thus far and he didn't cost the Sox the buckets of cash that Colon or a comparable free agent pitcher was demanding on the market. There's little reason at this point to think that he can't continue to fill the role adequately.
One of the main improvements Schoeneweis made last season to compliment his increased K-rate is his drastically decreased HR-rate. Having surrendered 21 and 17 dingers in 205.1 and 118 IP in 2001 and 2002, Schoeneweis kept all but three balls in the yard last year in 64.2 innings. Jorge Posada's shot off Schoeneweis in his first start has been his only blemish in that department this season. A slight increase in strikeouts would be encouraging, but for the time being, whatever adjustments Schoeneweis has made are working well.
http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2806