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Realist
04-26-2004, 06:45 AM
Juan Uribe for Aaron Miles? You are a thief and I thank you for it. (Chicago grammer intended)

I believe Uribe is better than Graffanino and I loved Tony.

Uribe has been a solid citizen no matter what has been asked of him. Actually, the bench has been very solid. I'm more worried about Harris, Rowand and, pretty soon I may start worrying about Crede's bat, although his defense has been spectacular.

I hope it warms up to 93 degrees really soon and stays that way until November.

jabrch
04-26-2004, 08:16 AM
Originally posted by Realist
Juan Uribe for Aaron Miles? You are a thief and I thank you for it. (Chicago grammer intended)

I believe Uribe is better than Graffanino and I loved Tony.

Uribe has been a solid citizen no matter what has been asked of him. Actually, the bench has been very solid. I'm more worried about Harris, Rowand and, pretty soon I may start worrying about Crede's bat, although his defense has been spectacular.

I hope it warms up to 93 degrees really soon and stays that way until November.

KW deserves a lot of props for putting this team together on a 65mm budget. Sure - part of it is his fault (PK and Koch contracts) but Schoe, Jackson, Uribe, Gload etc this season, along with Loaiza last year and Olivo (Bradford Who?) and Crede in the past are nice pickups. KW isn't perfect - no GM is. But he has done a fairly good job with this team.

34 Inch Stick
04-26-2004, 09:35 AM
He has always been better with his smaller acquisitions. That Adkins for Durham trade is starting to look better also.

DrCrawdad
04-26-2004, 09:43 AM
Kenny has made bad trades that have been beaten to death. It's interesting to hear callers and read the posts of some who see it as all or nothing. What I mean is that to many people every trade is pick-up that KW makes is suspect, meanwhile Jim Hendry gets the polar opposite treatment where it's often said that he doesn't make mistakes. Both of these assesments are wrong. KW has been all bad, or even near that and Hendry hasn't been close to perfect.

For the record, here are some of Hendry's bad moves...

2003
Troy O'Leary
Lenny Harris
Jose Hernandez
Shawn Estes
Dave Veres

2002
Fred McGriff
Todd Hundley
Chris Stynes
Delino DeShields
Chad Hermansen
Donovan Osborne
Jesus Sanchez

Dadawg_77
04-26-2004, 09:45 AM
Originally posted by DrCrawdad
Kenny has made bad trades that have been beaten to death. It's interesting to hear callers and read the posts of some who see it as all or nothing. What I mean is that to many people every trade is pick-up that KW makes is suspect, meanwhile Jim Hendry gets the polar opposite treatment where it's often said that he doesn't make mistakes. Both of these assesments are wrong. KW has been all bad, or even near that and Hendry hasn't been close to perfect.

For the record, here are some of Hendry's bad moves...

2003
Troy O'Leary
Lenny Harris
Jose Hernandez
Shawn Estes
Dave Veres

2002
Fred McGriff
Todd Hundley
Chris Stynes
Delino DeShields
Chad Hermansen
Donovan Osborne
Jesus Sanchez

Add Juan Cruz to that list.

zach23
04-26-2004, 09:51 AM
Originally posted by DrCrawdad
Kenny has made bad trades that have been beaten to death. It's interesting to hear callers and read the posts of some who see it as all or nothing. What I mean is that to many people every trade is pick-up that KW makes is suspect, meanwhile Jim Hendry gets the polar opposite treatment where it's often said that he doesn't make mistakes. Both of these assesments are wrong. KW has been all bad, or even near that and Hendry hasn't been close to perfect.

For the record, here are some of Hendry's bad moves...

2003
Troy O'Leary
Lenny Harris
Jose Hernandez
Shawn Estes
Dave Veres

2002
Fred McGriff
Todd Hundley
Chris Stynes
Delino DeShields
Chad Hermansen
Donovan Osborne
Jesus Sanchez

Didn't the great Jim Hendry also trade away Dontrelle Willis for 6 fingers Alfonseca?
What did he get in return for Eric Hinske?

DrCrawdad
04-26-2004, 09:56 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Add Juan Cruz to that list.

Initially at least it looks like the Cubbies may have lost on that deal, but it's too early to judge.

My intention is not to blast Hendry, he's done a good job for the Cubs however much of their success is due to luck, high-draft picks because they sucked & and financial strength. Even saying that, I state again that Hendry has done well but when some people talk about KW & Hendry they go to extremes, Hendry is great and has never made a mistake whereas KW sucks and everything he's done is horrible.

Maybe it's just the culture of sports radio.

Dadawg_77
04-26-2004, 10:07 AM
Originally posted by zach23
Didn't the great Jim Hendry also trade away Dontrelle Willis for 6 fingers Alfonseca?
What did he get in return for Eric Hinske?

He also got Clement in that deal.

jabrch
04-26-2004, 11:06 AM
Originally posted by zach23
Didn't the great Jim Hendry also trade away Dontrelle Willis for 6 fingers Alfonseca?
What did he get in return for Eric Hinske?


Well...He got Alfonseca and Clement.

Hinske was not projected to be too much. They got Mark Cairo for him, IIRC.

jeremyb1
04-26-2004, 12:40 PM
Originally posted by Realist
Juan Uribe for Aaron Miles? You are a thief and I thank you for it. (Chicago grammer intended)

I believe Uribe is better than Graffanino and I loved Tony.

Uribe has been a solid citizen no matter what has been asked of him. Actually, the bench has been very solid. I'm more worried about Harris, Rowand and, pretty soon I may start worrying about Crede's bat, although his defense has been spectacular.

I hope it warms up to 93 degrees really soon and stays that way until November.

How about we wait bit before we anoint Uribe an outstanding player. As far as I remember, Kenny Lofton failed to keep up his .400 pace from the first month in '02. Uribe wouldn't be the first player to ever have a dozen good games and then fall back to reality. I'm guessing he won't hit .350 or whatever he's hitting right now this season.

Randar68
04-26-2004, 12:42 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
How about we wait bit before we anoint Uribe an outstanding player. As far as I remember, Kenny Lofton failed to keep up his .400 pace from the first month in '02. Uribe wouldn't be the first player to ever have a dozen good games and then fall back to reality. I'm guessing he won't hit .350 or whatever he's hitting right now this season.

No he won't but he's a better defensive option at SS than Valentin, can play 2B, is going to be this team's SS next year, and has hit pretty well after having issues in Colorado.

He's not going to hit .350 and he doesn't take enough walks or work the count well enough to be a lead-off hitter or probably an above average #2 guy.

However, we got him for a much older and limited 2B with below average defense.

great trade. Short term, long term, any way you want to slice it.

jeremyb1
04-26-2004, 12:46 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
No he won't but he's a better defensive option at SS than Valentin, can play 2B, is going to be this team's SS next year, and has hit pretty well after having issues in Colorado.

He's not going to hit .350 and he doesn't take enough walks or work the count well enough to be a lead-off hitter or probably an above average #2 guy.

However, we got him for a much older and limited 2B with below average defense.

great trade. Short term, long term, any way you want to slice it.

Yeah, I think Miles is worthless and Uribe is younger with much more potential so it's an undeniably good deal. I'm just saying lets wait on deeming Uribe better than Graffanino or calling this a steal as opposed to just a solid deal.

kermittheefrog
04-26-2004, 12:50 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
Well...He got Alfonseca and Clement.

Hinske was not projected to be too much. They got Mark Cairo for him, IIRC.

Hinske wasn't projected to be valuable by the Cubs but anyone could have looked at Hinske's numbers and seen he was valuable. I remember talking to some Cubs fans about Hinske when he was in the Cubs system and they asked me if I would swap Crede for him, at that time Crede was a much more heralded player than Hinske. And I told them I would. It would have been a good move then and I still think it would be the right move now.

mdep524
04-26-2004, 12:56 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
No he won't but he's a better defensive option at SS than Valentin, can play 2B, is going to be this team's SS next year, and has hit pretty well after having issues in Colorado.

He's not going to hit .350 and he doesn't take enough walks or work the count well enough to be a lead-off hitter or probably an above average #2 guy.

However, we got him for a much older and limited 2B with below average defense.

great trade. Short term, long term, any way you want to slice it.

I'm a little bit worried about people "annointing" Uribe's as the starting SS for next year. I'm not being pessimistic, but its only been a couple weeks, let's see what the guy does over the whole season. Also, there are several talented free agent SS's this winter: Nomar, Edgar Rentaria, Orlando Cabrera-- who the Sox should consider pursuing as potentially better risks than Uribe.

Randar68
04-26-2004, 12:59 PM
Originally posted by mdep524
I'm a little bit worried about people "annointing" Uribe's as the starting SS for next year. I'm not being pessimistic, but its only been a couple weeks, let's see what the guy does over the whole season. Also, there are several talented free agent SS's this winter: Nomar, Edgar Rentaria, Orlando Cabrera-- who the Sox should consider pursuing as potentially better risks than Uribe.

$$$$$$$ Uribe, unless he completely tanks it, will be the starting SS next year.

Randar68
04-26-2004, 01:03 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Hinske wasn't projected to be valuable by the Cubs but anyone could have looked at Hinske's numbers and seen he was valuable. I remember talking to some Cubs fans about Hinske when he was in the Cubs system and they asked me if I would swap Crede for him, at that time Crede was a much more heralded player than Hinske. And I told them I would. It would have been a good move then and I still think it would be the right move now.

What?

Hinske's OPS last year, in his second FULL season, was almost identical to Crede's in his first Full season. And while Crede may take fewer walks, he strikes out far less often. In addition, I'd still argue that Crede has the better long-term power potential. Hinske is already well-built, while Crede was a twig last year compared to what his frame is capable of holding, muscularly.

In addition, Crede's defense is LIGHT YEARS better than Hinske's. Both statistically and subjectively/anecdotally.

iwannago
04-26-2004, 01:04 PM
As an outsider who only gets FSN and WGN maybe the reason Hendry is more popular is because he's always being interviewed on TV. I rarely see KW on the tube.

jabrch
04-26-2004, 01:06 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Hinske wasn't projected to be valuable by the Cubs but anyone could have looked at Hinske's numbers and seen he was valuable. I remember talking to some Cubs fans about Hinske when he was in the Cubs system and they asked me if I would swap Crede for him, at that time Crede was a much more heralded player than Hinske. And I told them I would. It would have been a good move then and I still think it would be the right move now.


I don't know what exactly you see in Hinske. I see low average, fair obp, lots of Ks and only mediocre pop. Obviously when the Cubs shopped him the best they could get was Miguel Cairo. GMs around the league couldn't have been that high on him, right?

kermittheefrog
04-26-2004, 04:30 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
I don't know what exactly you see in Hinske. I see low average, fair obp, lots of Ks and only mediocre pop. Obviously when the Cubs shopped him the best they could get was Miguel Cairo. GMs around the league couldn't have been that high on him, right?

If thats how you see Hinske, how do you see Crede? Coming into this season they are the same age, Hinske is career .263/.349/.481 in two seasons, Crede is .266/.307.444 in one season plus. Hinske had better numbers in the minors. He's also stolen 25 bases in 28 attempts in the majors, Crede isn't remotely a threat on a basepaths. At the plate Hinske is basically a more patient, left handed version of Crede. And Hinske can run a little. I think Hinske's offensive advantages make up for Crede's advantage in the field.

Randar68
04-26-2004, 04:46 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
If thats how you see Hinske, how do you see Crede? Coming into this season they are the same age, Hinske is career .263/.349/.481 in two seasons, Crede is .266/.307.444 in one season plus. Hinske had better numbers in the minors. He's also stolen 25 bases in 28 attempts in the majors, Crede isn't remotely a threat on a basepaths. At the plate Hinske is basically a more patient, left handed version of Crede. And Hinske can run a little. I think Hinske's offensive advantages make up for Crede's advantage in the field.

In more MLB service time, Hinske's numbers, which have degraded each year so far, are less than 100 points better in OPS, yet Crede turned more DP's in one year than Hinske has in his MLB career thus far. Crede's defense is immeasurably better. Crede also showed improvement late last year while Hinske had a hard time hitting his way out of a paper bag in year 2.

bobj4400
04-26-2004, 04:50 PM
Originally posted by mdep524
Also, there are several talented free agent SS's this winter: Nomar, Edgar Rentaria, Orlando Cabrera-- who the Sox should consider pursuing as potentially better risks than Uribe.

What about the Cubs' Alex Gonzalez?

Actually, it hurts me to say this, but one of those three (most likely Orlando Cabrera before the trading deadline) will be the Cubs' opening day shortstop in 2005.

kermittheefrog
04-26-2004, 06:56 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
In more MLB service time, Hinske's numbers, which have degraded each year so far, are less than 100 points better in OPS, yet Crede turned more DP's in one year than Hinske has in his MLB career thus far. Crede's defense is immeasurably better. Crede also showed improvement late last year while Hinske had a hard time hitting his way out of a paper bag in year 2.

Hinske's numbers did drop but he still was more valuable on offense than Crede. Crede's "improvement" was starting to hit well enough so he was no longer one of the worst regulars in baseball, I don't know if that is something to brag about. Hinske never struggled as badly as Crede, even though Hinske had an injury riddled first half. Crede was the one who couldn't hit his way out of the paper bag for half the season, you should remember this as a Sox fan. And DP's alone is not a good measure of defense. Different pitching staffs have different groundball tendencies and that will have a large effect on things like DPs.

There really isn't any arguing the offensive value of the two players. Hinske is clearly more valuable with the bat and on the basepaths. It is possible that Crede is still the more valuable player because of his defense but I think Hinske would be a good fit on this team. We could use a lefty who can hit and a guy who knows how to take a walk. Hinske is almost exactly what the Sox are lacking.

jabrch
04-26-2004, 07:11 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
If thats how you see Hinske, how do you see Crede? Coming into this season they are the same age, Hinske is career .263/.349/.481 in two seasons, Crede is .266/.307.444 in one season plus. Hinske had better numbers in the minors. He's also stolen 25 bases in 28 attempts in the majors, Crede isn't remotely a threat on a basepaths. At the plate Hinske is basically a more patient, left handed version of Crede. And Hinske can run a little. I think Hinske's offensive advantages make up for Crede's advantage in the field.

Crede isn't all that good yet either. At least he has a decent glove. But your statement was that scouts liked Hinske - and I don't think many/any did when he was traded for Mark Cairo.

jabrch
04-26-2004, 07:16 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
There really isn't any arguing the offensive value of the two players. Hinske is clearly more valuable with the bat and on the basepaths. It is possible that Crede is still the more valuable player because of his defense but I think Hinske would be a good fit on this team. We could use a lefty who can hit and a guy who knows how to take a walk. Hinske is almost exactly what the Sox are lacking.

"Clearly more valuable"? On their careers, their batting averages are the same (.259 vs .260) Hinske has a .347 OBP to Crede's .342 - neither are valuable for that. Hinske's SLG is .461 to Crede's .444 - not a "clear" difference. Factor in that Hinske strikes out 24% of his ABs and Crede only 16%, while Crede plays very good D and Hinske does not.

I don't want another guy who strikes out a lot in the lineup - no thanks. His numbers went down significantly between year 1 and year 2 and are dropping again to year 3. He strikes out, on his career, 24% of his ABs. That's TERRIBLE. I don't want a high K, weak glove at 3B for us. That wouldn't help us at all.

ode to veeck
04-26-2004, 07:27 PM
Uribe, unless he completely tanks it, will be the starting SS next year.

if not sooner

Randar68
04-26-2004, 09:44 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
"Clearly more valuable"? On their careers, their batting averages are the same (.259 vs .260) Hinske has a .347 OBP to Crede's .342 - neither are valuable for that. Hinske's SLG is .461 to Crede's .444 - not a "clear" difference. Factor in that Hinske strikes out 24% of his ABs and Crede only 16%, while Crede plays very good D and Hinske does not.

I don't want another guy who strikes out a lot in the lineup - no thanks. His numbers went down significantly between year 1 and year 2 and are dropping again to year 3. He strikes out, on his career, 24% of his ABs. That's TERRIBLE. I don't want a high K, weak glove at 3B for us. That wouldn't help us at all.


DING DING DING.

Kermit, any statistical measure of defensive capabilities, not just DP's (it was an example, although Hinske playing on turf in Toronto should almost always increase the # of chances of a DP for a 3rd baseman)

ZR, RF, E's, etc etc etc. Hinske is an absolute hack compared tot Crede. Also, in less service time, Crede's power numbers are not dramatically different.

Long term, I don't think it's reasonable to expect any baseball person to take Hinske over Crede.

kermittheefrog
04-26-2004, 10:33 PM
Where is this phantom Joe Crede .342 OBP? I see a .311 OBP in 2002 and a .308 OBP in 2003. If Crede put up a .342 OBP there would be no doubt in my mind that he was a more valuable player than Hinske. I think you guys are misinterpretting what I said anyway. I said Hinske was clearly the better offensive player. And there really isn't anything to argue, similar batting averages and Hinske is significantly better with all the secondary skills. Does Crede's defense make up for the gap between them? It's possible, it's a hard call to make, I know Crede is a much better defender. Although if I had to pick one to play for the Sox today, I'd pick Hinske because he has some skills our team is lacking. And I don't care about strikeouts, they aren't as bad as people make them out to be. Certainly not as bad as GDPs which slip under the radar in analysis all too often.

WinningUgly!
04-26-2004, 11:08 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
Crede isn't all that good yet either. At least he has a decent glove. But your statement was that scouts liked Hinske - and I don't think many/any did when he was traded for Mark Cairo.

Even Billy Beane traded Hinske away (along with Justin Miller for Billy Koch).

batmanZoSo
04-26-2004, 11:11 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Where is this phantom Joe Crede .342 OBP? I see a .311 OBP in 2002 and a .308 OBP in 2003. If Crede put up a .342 OBP there would be no doubt in my mind that he was a more valuable player than Hinske. I think you guys are misinterpretting what I said anyway. I said Hinske was clearly the better offensive player. And there really isn't anything to argue, similar batting averages and Hinske is significantly better with all the secondary skills. Does Crede's defense make up for the gap between them? It's possible, it's a hard call to make, I know Crede is a much better defender. Although if I had to pick one to play for the Sox today, I'd pick Hinske because he has some skills our team is lacking. And I don't care about strikeouts, they aren't as bad as people make them out to be. Certainly not as bad as GDPs which slip under the radar in analysis all too often.

Who cares if Hinske's a tad better hitter than Crede ... which is all you could give him anyway, and it's debatable that he'll be a better hitter in the long haul. We're not talking about Troy Glaus here. Eric Hinske is an average third baseman and not nearly the fielder Joe is. This conversation carried on way too long.

kermittheefrog
04-26-2004, 11:13 PM
Originally posted by WinningUgly!
Even Billy Beane traded Hinske away (along with Justin Miller for Billy Koch).

Well, Beane does have the best third baseman in the AL playing for his team.

jabrch
04-27-2004, 07:47 AM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Where is this phantom Joe Crede .342 OBP? I see a .311 OBP in 2002 and a .308 OBP in 2003. If Crede put up a .342 OBP there would be no doubt in my mind that he was a more valuable player than Hinske. I think you guys are misinterpretting what I said anyway. I said Hinske was clearly the better offensive player. And there really isn't anything to argue, similar batting averages and Hinske is significantly better with all the secondary skills. Does Crede's defense make up for the gap between them? It's possible, it's a hard call to make, I know Crede is a much better defender. Although if I had to pick one to play for the Sox today, I'd pick Hinske because he has some skills our team is lacking. And I don't care about strikeouts, they aren't as bad as people make them out to be. Certainly not as bad as GDPs which slip under the radar in analysis all too often.

My bad - .302 - in any case, over the slight difference in OBP, I will take the significant difference in Ks and the defense every day.

Dadawg_77
04-27-2004, 10:36 AM
Originally posted by WinningUgly!
Even Billy Beane traded Hinske away (along with Justin Miller for Billy Koch).

While Hinske would be a backup on the A's, most teams don't have Chavez.

Dadawg_77
04-27-2004, 10:45 AM
Originally posted by jabrch
My bad - .302 - in any case, over the slight difference in OBP, I will take the significant difference in Ks and the defense every day.

.307 vs .349 is a major difference.

Vaule of Replacement level

Joe Crede: 17.8, 12.7
Eric Hinske: 59.0, 13.5

Both had sophomore blues, Hinske's was more dramatic. His broken hand may have had a major affect on his offensive production last year. If Hinske comes close to his rookie year production, he is a much more valuable player then Crede, no matter how good Crede glove is.

jabrch
04-27-2004, 11:17 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
.307 vs .349 is a major difference.

Vaule of Replacement level

Joe Crede: 17.8, 12.7
Eric Hinske: 59.0, 13.5

Both had sophomore blues, Hinske's was more dramatic. His broken hand may have had a major affect on his offensive production last year. If Hinske comes close to his rookie year production, he is a much more valuable player then Crede, no matter how good Crede glove is.

Dawg, this is virtually Crede's sophomore season. He had 200 ABs in 2002, but this is his second season with the job. It doesn't bother you that he strikes out almost 25% of his ABs?

In any case, the original discussion was if the Cubs could have realized, when they traded Hinske, and if Hendry is a bad GM. I'll stand by my points that A) Hendry is a good GM, B) Hinske is a mediocre offensive 3B, at best and C) whatever little offensive difference there is between Hinske and Crede, is somewhat neutralized by the defensive differences and the ability to make contact. D) Neither Hinske nor Crede looks to be a star in this league.

Dadawg_77
04-27-2004, 11:25 AM
Originally posted by jabrch
Dawg, this is virtually Crede's sophomore season. He had 200 ABs in 2002, but this is his second season with the job. It doesn't bother you that he strikes out almost 25% of his ABs?

In any case, the original discussion was if the Cubs could have realized, when they traded Hinske, and if Hendry is a bad GM. I'll stand by my points that A) Hendry is a good GM, B) Hinske is a mediocre offensive 3B, at best and C) whatever little offensive difference there is between Hinske and Crede, is somewhat neutralized by the defensive differences and the ability to make contact. D) Neither Hinske nor Crede looks to be a star in this league.

I disagree with statement B. We has yet to see it that, if he plays at his rookie year level, he is a very good 3b.

Ks are just another way to get out, no real difference betweens ways to get out. Plus the more you work the count, the higher probability strikes outs become.

jabrch
04-27-2004, 11:35 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Ks are just another way to get out, no real difference betweens ways to get out. Plus the more you work the count, the higher probability strikes outs become.

While that is true, and I have read the stuff that says it, I still believe good things happen when you put the bat on the ball. Almost nothing good comes from swinging and not making contact. When you make contact, a whole lot of good things can happen. Think about how much we hated Klaton or how much JoseK drives us nuts today.

As far as working the count goes, you can work the count and still not strike out. Crede averages 3.5 pitches per plate appearance. Hinske gets 3.7 Neither is a "countworker" - they are 9th and 11th in the AL respectively. Randa, blake, Mora and Chavez are all over 4 p/pa.

I may be wrong on this one - but I don't think that anyone who has traded Hinske has ever looked back on it and said that they should have known better, or that, in hindsight, the deal was a poorly thought out deal.