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View Full Version : Players that could be more valuable than Maggs


jeremyb1
04-16-2004, 02:03 PM
So bring on the "this thread sucks" posts but the reality is that resigning Maggs would make the fans happy because we've grown attatched to him but the bottom line is that at 14 million dollars a season for a player whose production should decrease by the time he's 34 or 35 there will most likely be better fits for our club for 14 million a season this upcoming off-season. Maggs isn't as good as Vlad who received 14 million and our organization strength is corner outfielders with Carlos signed for a couple more seasons, Reed and Borchard in AAA, and Sweeney and Anderson coming along in a few years. So with that in mind, here are some upcomming free agents that have the potential to give us better bang for the buck than Maggs over the next 4 or 5 years:

Carlos Beltran - His production isn't particularly far off Maggs with the key here being that he plays center field. Reed and Borchard might be able to handle CF but its probably a bit of a stretch for either player. Beltran is a CF and a good one at that. Allowing Reed/Borchard to slide into a corner spot improves our outfield defense and our offense with Beltran/Reed is probably better than this season with Rowand/Maggs. A huge key to this deal is that Beltran will be 28 last season while Maggs will be 31. Players ussually peak around 27-30 so if we can pay for Beltan's 28-33 year old seasons we'll get much more of his peak production than with Maggs 31-36 seasons. Beltran can't figure to command much more than 14 million on the market and may actually command as much or less.

Orlando Cabrerra - Sure he's not as good as Maggs but he won't cost nearly as much allowing us to upgrade other positions. The middle infield isn't in very good shape with Valentin getting up there in age and Harris far from spectacular. You have to figure Cabrerra couldn't cost much more than 6 million per season and we'd add one of the better hitting shortshops in the game. Garciaparra and Jose Vidro are also similar options here but are less likely to be a good value financially than Cabrerra.

Matt Morris - The rotation could use some help. Buehrle and Garland are really the only two sure things for next season with Schoeneweis and Loaiza only signed through this season and Wright a definite question mark. Honel, Rauch, and Diaz could make an impact but that certainly remains to be seen at this point. Morris might be overvalued coming from the NL and the Cards are likely to resign him so the fit is not perfect but the need for a strong starter exists and Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe, and Pedro rerpesent some other free agent starting pitchers next offseason.

mweflen
04-16-2004, 02:05 PM
I dunno... Jesus? Word is, he can hit a curveball...

:smile:

Tekijawa
04-16-2004, 02:06 PM
Matt Morris???

What about Mark Prior? I'd love to out bid the cubs on him!
Pedro?
Garciapara?
Todd Ritchie?

IlliniSox
04-16-2004, 02:08 PM
Renteria if we don't sign magglio. That would be the only signing that would keep me from buring my sox wardrobe next year.

lowesox
04-16-2004, 02:21 PM
This is an interesting thread. Any ideas how much Pedro will be wanting? Or Cabrera for that matter?

What if we could sign those two for around the same price Valentin and Ordonez are costing us now, then call up Reed?

Tekijawa
04-16-2004, 02:22 PM
Originally posted by IlliniSox
Renteria if we don't sign magglio. That would be the only signing that would keep me from buring my sox wardrobe next year.

I think I'd rather have Garciapara..

mweflen
04-16-2004, 02:27 PM
Beltran and Guerrero have spent significant amounts of time on the DL in recent seasons. Maggs hasn't, which seems to make him out as a better risk.

Some career numbers:

--------------Beltran----Ordonez----Guerrero

OPS-----------.834-------.895----------.978
AVE-----------.288-------.308----------.323
Ave. ABs/Yr---562--------589---------- 568
Ave. Runs/Yr--96.6-------96.6----------99.1

(this is over their respective full seasons - Guerrero and Beltran are lower because of DL visits)

So is Maggs as "valuable" as Guerrero? Probably not, statistically. He should probably make a tad less than Vlad.

Is Maggs more valuable than Beltran? Probably So.

Both Vlad and Beltran have better SB numbers than Maggs, but this is somewhat because of the Manuel "Corpse Ball" era. And their average Runs scored seems to point to the SB numbers not being significant.

Just for giggles, here are Manny Ramirez' numbers over his full seasons. He's 32, so he's in a similar ballpark in terms of his career.

OPS------1.011
AVE------.317
ABs/Yr.---517
Runs/Yr.-100.3

So Manny Ramirez is less reliable, but more productive than any of the aforementioned 3 players.

Would I rather have Ordonez than Ramirez? DEFINITELY. I don't much like headcases or malingerers.

Garciaparra:

OPS------.925
AVE------.323
ABs/Yr.---532
Runs/Yr.-96.2

Ordonez and Garciaparra are nearly a wash offensively. In terms of reliability, though, there's no contest.

MRKARNO
04-16-2004, 02:37 PM
The thing about Maggs is that he's the closest it gets to a sure thing in baseball. He is probably the most dependably good player in baseball. From 1999-2003, he was excellent every year. He had his his 5-year low in RBIs and home runs last year and he still had 99 and 29 respectively, essentially a solo shot from having 5 straight years of 100 and 30. He's hit .300+ every year in this period and hit .312 over this period. His low in games played is 153, only 9 short of a full year. His OBP has been in the .380's the past 3 years straight and it should climb as he is the 3 hitter this year.

The beauty of having Maggs is it's almost a given what you can expect from him and you can expect an excellent year every year from him.

Garret Anderson just got himself 12 million a year, and despite the many comparisons, Maggs is a lot better than him. Garrett's been about as consistant over the past 4 years except that Garret has only eclipsed 30 homers once in this span. The big key is that Anderson gets on base at about a .330 clip, which is pathetic considering he hits close to or at .300 every year. Maggs walks a respectable amoutn fo times and he doesnt stirkeout nearly as much as anderson.

And as far as Beltran goes, he hasn't quite shown the power that Maggs has in the past. He's never broken 30 Homers yet and only last year had an OBP over .362 (.389). Beltran probably does have a higher ceiling that Maggs, but it's not that much higher. The only area which Beltran has a huge advantage is speed, which lends to him being able to play a tougher defensive positon in center field. Now Beltran is great and all, but he is not the proven commodity that Maggs is. Beltran's year last year was just awesome, but there's always the potential of that being a career year. I would also anticipate Beltran getting a ton of money due to large competition from many different teams looking for a franchise player and if the Yankees get in it, he might be the first player in a while to approach 20 mil a year.

As far as Pedro goes, he'll probably be in either Boston or New York next year, unless Arte Moreno decides he needs him that badly.

So while the argument against Maggs is a valid one, I think that if you're going to give a player a ton of money, you should give it to a sure thing like Maggs, not a Chan Ho Park.

pinwheels3530
04-16-2004, 02:39 PM
NOBODY!!!!!!!

Tekijawa
04-16-2004, 02:48 PM
All this and No mention of Prior, Who I believe will be a FA (Because of his FUNKY Contract) in 2005, or is it 2006? What would you pay for him.

Dadawg_77
04-16-2004, 02:50 PM
Originally posted by mweflen
.

The biggest issue with your analysis is you use AB instead of PA. PA would be a much better indicator of how much a player played since walks, HBP don't count as AB but do count as PA. If you use AB you need to list walks, or you are not producing a valuable number. As Mags walked 57 times and Beltran walked 72.

StockdaleForVeep
04-16-2004, 02:50 PM
vlad is now an injury risk due to his back and cabrerra is too young to guage, also, why get cabrerra because if he becomes a magglio, he'll just want more money as well. Magglio is what the sox needs, a franchise player, he even stated he wants to stay cuz it was the sox that gave him his chance.

Dadawg_77
04-16-2004, 02:53 PM
By VORP. Beltran is rated as a CF and Mags is rated as a RF.

Beltran 55.8
Mags 52.7
Vlad 48.5

mweflen
04-16-2004, 02:58 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
The biggest issue with your analysis is you use AB instead of PA. PA would be a much better indicator of how much a player played since walks, HBP don't count as AB but do count as PA. If you use AB you need to list walks, or you are not producing a valuable number. As Mags walked 57 times and Beltran walked 72.

agreed, dadawg... but i didn't feel like tabulating ABs plus Walks for each player :smile: - undortunately, MLB.com does not keep PA stats.

The point, however, still stands - Maggs is more reliable than Beltran, Guerrero, or Garciaparra; and MUCH more reliable than Ramirez.

I'm sure PA stats would still bear this trend out.

BTW... what's VORP?

Tekijawa
04-16-2004, 03:01 PM
So no one would rather have Prior?

mweflen
04-16-2004, 03:17 PM
Prior, the Gimp Who Saved Christmas? Pass.

Dadawg_77
04-16-2004, 03:20 PM
Originally posted by mweflen
agreed, dadawg... but i didn't feel like tabulating ABs plus Walks for each player :smile: - undortunately, MLB.com does not keep PA stats.

The point, however, still stands - Maggs is more reliable than Beltran, Guerrero, or Garciaparra; and MUCH more reliable than Ramirez.

I'm sure PA stats would still bear this trend out.

BTW... what's VORP?

Value of replacement player. A replacement level player is a AAAA type of player who a club hangs on to just in case something happens. It is position dependent, so CF is judge differently then a RF or LF.

hold2dibber
04-16-2004, 03:43 PM
Originally posted by Tekijawa
So no one would rather have Prior?

He's not a FA untilafter the '06 season (http://www.bluemanc.demon.co.uk/baseball/mlbcontracts.htm) - so it's not really worth talking about.

Dadawg_77
04-16-2004, 03:45 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
He's not a FA untilafter the '06 season (http://www.bluemanc.demon.co.uk/baseball/mlbcontracts.htm) - so it's not really worth talking about.

-If eligible, he can void deal after 2004 and opt for salary arbitration


This is what people are talking about.

soxfan26
04-16-2004, 04:02 PM
Jeremyb1 -

You have a point in that there are other ways to spend $12-$14m per season.

But it just is not that easy. We would most likely wind up in a bidding war with several other teams for the services of Beltran, Morris and even Cabrera.

Can you honestly expect JR to pony up the money and years these players will be looking for at the end of the season when he won't pony it up for Maggs?

Signing Maggs sends a message to the fans, Sox players, and to other players around the league about the organization. We want to win and we are willing to pay the price.

MRKARNO
04-16-2004, 04:28 PM
And the nice thing about Maggs is that he's the one superstar that we dont have to get in a bidding war with. We can settle it with him before King George of (New) York or John Henry get talk to him.

SoxxoS
04-16-2004, 04:47 PM
Doesn't everyone think we have some capable relacements waiting in the wings in the minors?

Reed
Anderson
Sweeney
Borchard.

The law of averages says one of those guys is going to be very good. Two will most likely be.

I think SS (See: Renteria, Edgar) and 2B (See: Vidro, Jose) would be a better fit for the 14 million. Especially since those two positions are VERY weak in the minors for us. Those two players would probably equal 14 million combined (maybe a little more) but don't forget to take Jose's 5 million off the books as well...

That leaves us 19 million to play around with. Not to mention if we can possibly trade Konerko at some stage.

Who knows? I love Maggs. I wouldn't MIND him staying. I just think there are much better options out there for the 14 million dollars.

hold2dibber
04-16-2004, 04:53 PM
As much as I love Maggs, I'd have to think long and hard about signing him for $14 million/year for 5 years - UNLESS, JR were to raise the payroll.

Off the top of my head, other than Maggs, expiring contracts after this year include:

Jose ($5 million)
Loaiza ($4 million?)
Koch ($6 million?)
Alomar ($750,000)

That frees up about $16 million in payroll. But raises for others (Lee, Konerko, Frank, Garland, Buehrle, Marte) probably eats up half of that.

So if the Sox were to re-sign Maggs at $14 million, assuming the payroll stays about the same next year, the Sox would have about $8 million to find a starting SS (nobody in the minors ready to take over), at least one starter and some bullpen help. Not to mention the fact that the Sox may be in desparate need for a 2B and/or CF if Harris and/or Rowand don't pan out. Good luck with that.

If Maggs doesn't re-sign, the Sox have $22 million to fill those holes and hope that either Reed or Borchard can do the job in RF.

It's a very tough call.

jeremyb1
04-16-2004, 04:57 PM
Originally posted by soxfan26
Jeremyb1 -

You have a point in that there are other ways to spend $12-$14m per season.

But it just is not that easy. We would most likely wind up in a bidding war with several other teams for the services of Beltran, Morris and even Cabrera.

Technically we're in a bidding war with Maggs, we're bidding against what he and his agent feel the market will pay him. I doubt we're likely to go up against teams offering much more than 14 million if he does in fact become a free agent.

CubKiller5
04-16-2004, 04:59 PM
You mention several names but you're not putting a price on any of them.

Of the top 20 in the AL the most production players & their AB totals:
#1 570 Delgado
#2 569 Ramirez BOS
#3 607 A-Rod
#4 441 Nixon BOS
#5 535 Giambi
#6 546 Thomas SOX
#7 524 Mueller
#8 481 Posada
#9 521 Beltran
#10 448 Ortiz BOS
#11 606 Maggs SOX
#12 497 Martinez SEA
#13 485 Guillen OAK
#14 678 Wells TOR
#15 622 Boone SEA
#16 636 Huff TB
#17 487 Mient MIN
#18 562 Young DET
#19 482 Jeter NYY
#20 526 Everett SOX (at the time)

Beltran is coming off of a better year but in terms of AB's played in 20 fewer games. Is Boone a FA after this year? What's a solid hitting middle IFer worth to the SOX?

When it comes to spending 70-75/5 on a player you have to consider what else you can do to better the team for that kind of $$$.

surfdudes
04-17-2004, 03:31 AM
Originally posted by mweflen
Beltran and Guerrero have spent significant amounts of time on the DL in recent seasons. Maggs hasn't, which seems to make him out as a better risk.

Some career numbers:

--------------Beltran----Ordonez----Guerrero

OPS-----------.834-------.895----------.978
AVE-----------.288-------.308----------.323
Ave. ABs/Yr---562--------589---------- 568
Ave. Runs/Yr--96.6-------96.6----------99.1

(this is over their respective full seasons - Guerrero and Beltran are lower because of DL visits)

So is Maggs as "valuable" as Guerrero? Probably not, statistically. He should probably make a tad less than Vlad.

Is Maggs more valuable than Beltran? Probably So.

Both Vlad and Beltran have better SB numbers than Maggs, but this is somewhat because of the Manuel "Corpse Ball" era. And their average Runs scored seems to point to the SB numbers not being significant.

Just for giggles, here are Manny Ramirez' numbers over his full seasons. He's 32, so he's in a similar ballpark in terms of his career.

OPS------1.011
AVE------.317
ABs/Yr.---517
Runs/Yr.-100.3

So Manny Ramirez is less reliable, but more productive than any of the aforementioned 3 players.

Would I rather have Ordonez than Ramirez? DEFINITELY. I don't much like headcases or malingerers.

Garciaparra:

OPS------.925
AVE------.323
ABs/Yr.---532
Runs/Yr.-96.2

Ordonez and Garciaparra are nearly a wash offensively. In terms of reliability, though, there's no contest.

Let's see some RISP totals and RISP 2 outs. I believe Maggs is ahead of all these guys. Also, his personality fits on this club, he's consistant, reliable, and he hasn't gotten into any legal trouble. Aside from statistics, how much is that worth?

SoxxoS
04-17-2004, 12:32 PM
Originally posted by surfdudes
Let's see some RISP totals and RISP 2 outs. I believe Maggs is ahead of all these guys. Also, his personality fits on this club, he's consistant, reliable, and he hasn't gotten into any legal trouble. Aside from statistics, how much is that worth?

He leads the majors the last five years in late inning situations...

On the personality...you can flip that around and say he doesn't put fannies in seats like some of those other stars b/c of his personality...