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chaerulez
04-14-2004, 06:45 AM
Does anyone else get the feeling that Baseball Prospectus overrated Reed as the #2 prospect because of his tear in the minor leagues? I mean I think I can turn out into a real good player, in the mold of Milton Bradley. But #2? That's given a lot of high hopes to us Sox fans especially with people who look like sure franchise cornerstones such as Prince Fielder and B.J. Upton ranked lower.

Ironically Milton Bradley was a HUGE prospect when he came up with Montreal. Maybe scouts just love these types in the minors...

toledosoxfan
04-14-2004, 07:40 AM
I watched Jeremy in 3 games this weekend and was very impressed (Charlotte Knights at Toledo Mud Hens). He always seemed to make good contact and even his outs included line drives or long fly balls to the warning track. In my opinion, he has passed Joe Borchard up and is the SOX future leadoff hitter. Joe still needs to work on patience at the plate. Though, the homer he hit last Saturday went out of the park in a hurry. He can rip the ball when he gets the bat on it, I'm still concerned about his strikeouts.

The pitching also looks promising in AAA. Jason Grilli impressed me the most with his start on Sunday. 6ip with 3 hits, 1er, 1bb, 8ks. He could be an alternative if Wright falters as the 5th starter. Enemencio Pacheco relieved and had 3 ks in 1.1 innings. Granted these are hitters that are not good enough for the Tigers.

BTW if you are ever in the Toledo area, I highly recommend checking out Fifth Third Field. One of the better parks in minor league baseball.

soxfan26
04-14-2004, 07:51 AM
Originally posted by chaerulez
Does anyone else get the feeling that Baseball Prospectus overrated Reed as the #2 prospect because of his tear in the minor leagues? I mean I think I can turn out into a real good player, in the mold of Milton Bradley. But #2? That's given a lot of high hopes to us Sox fans especially with people who look like sure franchise cornerstones such as Prince Fielder and B.J. Upton ranked lower.

Ironically Milton Bradley was a HUGE prospect when he came up with Montreal. Maybe scouts just love these types in the minors...

You have to take any of those assessments of minor league prospects for what it's worth.

I've suffered through enough highly touted prospects falling flat on their face, and seen enough guys come up to the majors under the national media's radar to be cautiously optimistic.

Charlotte is still a long way from Chicago.

A. Cavatica
04-14-2004, 09:27 AM
#2 prospect? Yeah, that's probably high, but he did lead the minors in batting last year (.373 or something). His game is solid all around -- good plate discipline, some power, reliable fielding, opportunistic baserunning, great hustle. If you go by his tools, he's not the #2; he's probably not even in the top ten. If you go by his performance, he deserves it.

SEALgep
04-14-2004, 09:49 AM
Originally posted by chaerulez
Does anyone else get the feeling that Baseball Prospectus overrated Reed as the #2 prospect because of his tear in the minor leagues? I mean I think I can turn out into a real good player, in the mold of Milton Bradley. But #2? That's given a lot of high hopes to us Sox fans especially with people who look like sure franchise cornerstones such as Prince Fielder and B.J. Upton ranked lower.

Ironically Milton Bradley was a HUGE prospect when he came up with Montreal. Maybe scouts just love these types in the minors... Keep in mind, this guy went from part of a season in A, to the other part in AA last year. Then bumped up to AAA this year. That's quite a series of jumps for barely more than a complete season. The point is, the guy hasn't seen any of these AAA pitchers before and they are no doubtedly solid pitchers throughout. He's done okay so far, and he's coming off a wrist injury and a slump in ST. I'm just saying, he certainly can be a .300 hitter in the bigs (not sure his first year though). That's without much power, or blazing speed, so your point of whether or not he should be a number 2 prospect in all of baseball is well taken. However, the rank doesn't mean a thing until they are brought into the league to see what they can do. And when he does get brought up, I think he'll show that he deserves the props he's been getting. Again, not sure in his first year, but he looks to be a real solid two spot hitter. I hope it works out.

JDP
04-14-2004, 09:59 AM
I'd have loved for a shot to have gotten to see Jeremy Reed in person here in the midwest league, but my Yankees never hosted any of the Sox A-teams. I have only worked in the capacity of scout/evaluator for the high school players and low minor league hitters for a little over a year now, but I'd like I have a solid eye for predicting talent based on watching a few outing by that player. I was probably one of the few within the Yankees 'organization' that was fuming over the including of Arias in the deal involving Soriano -- everyone else seemed blindsided w/ the acquisition of PayRod. I saw Joaquin on a daily basis and he's along the mold of a Luis Castillo in his prime -- with an even higher ceiling. Least we still have Navarro!

As it stands, there are no Sox minor leaguers that I get a chance to see in action past high school ball, but if you want a report on some hella fine hitters like Eric Duncan or Estee Harris, I'm your man. =}

batmanZoSo
04-14-2004, 10:03 AM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
#2 prospect? Yeah, that's probably high, but he did lead the minors in batting last year (.373 or something). His game is solid all around -- good plate discipline, some power, reliable fielding, opportunistic baserunning, great hustle. If you go by his tools, he's not the #2; he's probably not even in the top ten. If you go by his performance, he deserves it.

Right. Magglio was unheard of. Didn't we get him from Houston in the Rule V or something? It's all about performance...and we're not talking about a 27 year old who's suddenly tearing up the minors...this is a young prospect. Tools schmools...see Ruben Rivera.

JDP
04-14-2004, 10:32 AM
Originally posted by batmanZoSo
Right. Magglio was unheard of. Didn't we get him from Houston in the Rule V or something? It's all about performance...and we're not talking about a 27 year old who's suddenly tearing up the minors...this is a young prospect. Tools schmools...see Ruben Rivera.

Ordonez was a Rule V from Houston, yup yup.

Speaking of 27 year olds tearing up the minors: what are the plans for Gload now if Konerko continue to play well? Spot playing time to give Lee/Maggs time off out in the COF?

batmanZoSo
04-14-2004, 10:34 AM
Originally posted by JDP
Ordonez was a Rule V from Houston, yup yup.

Speaking of 27 year olds tearing up the minors: what are the plans for Gload now if Konerko continue to play well? Spot playing time to give Lee/Maggs time off out in the COF?

Yeah, Pauly screwed him over by coming back. Gload isn't gonna start much now. He will if we trade PK, which I reccomend if the opportunity presents itself.

JDP
04-14-2004, 10:38 AM
I think if Paulie = hot, Sox = cold and out sometime late June or early July, then Paulie is gone. He will have improved his stock from basically nothing to a possibility for a few teams and I think KW will pull the trigger then.

As it sits now, Paulie is doing well the first week -- great, lets keep it up Paulie. However, back to Gload -- he still has a hot-ST bat and is a left-handed hitter, so surely Ozzie will find him 150+ ABs this year?

batmanZoSo
04-14-2004, 10:47 AM
Originally posted by JDP
I think if Paulie = hot, Sox = cold and out sometime late June or early July, then Paulie is gone. He will have improved his stock from basically nothing to a possibility for a few teams and I think KW will pull the trigger then.

As it sits now, Paulie is doing well the first week -- great, lets keep it up Paulie. However, back to Gload -- he still has a hot-ST bat and is a left-handed hitter, so surely Ozzie will find him 150+ ABs this year?

If there are takers out there I'd trade Pauly for prospects, then use the unused money to acquire a second baseman if one's available in another trade. Or trade for a starter or reliever and get a second baseman in the offseason.

SoxxoS
04-14-2004, 10:59 AM
Milton Bradley is a very good player with great athletic ability, just nothing upstairs to co-inside with the talent.

Jeremy Reed is going to be fine. Everyone is saying he looks like Mark Kotsay, but I want a lot more than that from our top prospect. We'll see.

Jim Thome strikes out a ton, and he seems to be a fine hitter. There is still hope for Borchard. K's are just going to be part of the territory with him.

MisterB
04-14-2004, 11:50 AM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Jim Thome strikes out a ton, and he seems to be a fine hitter. There is still hope for Borchard. K's are just going to be part of the territory with him.

Ahhh. The Thome strikeout rationalization...

Thome and Borchard come from totally different places, development-wise. Thome was a high-average hitter with a decent eye who developed power as he progressed through the minors (and, not coincidentally, developing a knack for the strike out in the process). Borchard started out with the power and strikeouts, and has yet to develop any plate discipline or the ability to hit for average. At this point, I'd have to say Borchard will be Rob Deer with better defensive skills. Amazing what $5.3M buys you nowadays.

SoxxoS
04-14-2004, 11:53 AM
Borchard did hit .303 at AA I believe, and had the awful year last year. I don't think he is going to be Jim Thome, I am just saying that Borch can be a productive hitter in the major leagues, even with the strikouts.
I would love Jim Thome (Obviously, I would take the Rob Deer, but I don't want Russ Branyan.

hold2dibber
04-14-2004, 12:07 PM
Originally posted by MisterB
At this point, I'd have to say Borchard will be Rob Deer with better defensive skills. Amazing what $5.3M buys you nowadays.

I believe Rob Deer hit 9 home runs against the Sox on the opening day of the new park. :)

jeremyb1
04-14-2004, 12:22 PM
Originally posted by MisterB
Borchard started out with the power and strikeouts, and has yet to develop any plate discipline or the ability to hit for average. At this point, I'd have to say Borchard will be Rob Deer with better defensive skills. Amazing what $5.3M buys you nowadays.

Borchard hit for average and drew a good number of walks in AA. His first season in AAA wasn't terrible either.

As far as Reed's expectations go, it depends on how you rate performance. I don't think Reed will ever be valued as a superstar by the national media and maybe the fans for that matter. That's because he'll walk and hit a lot of doubles and hit .300 but he won't hit a ton of home runs so if you evaluate him through the typical batting average, home runs, RBIs, you'll be severely undervaluing him.

SoxxoS
04-14-2004, 12:41 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Borchard hit for average and drew a good number of walks in AA. His first season in AAA wasn't terrible either.

As far as Reed's expectations go, it depends on how you rate performance. I don't think Reed will ever be valued as a superstar by the national media and maybe the fans for that matter. That's because he'll walk and hit a lot of doubles and hit .300 but he won't hit a ton of home runs so if you evaluate him through the typical batting average, home runs, RBIs, you'll be severely undervaluing him.

That's good for JR, that means he won't cost a lot at contract time.

:reinsy

"I can't have 2 Ordonez's on my team."

MisterB
04-14-2004, 01:07 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Borchard did hit .303 at AA I believe, and had the awful year last year. I don't think he is going to be Jim Thome, I am just saying that Borch can be a productive hitter in the major leagues, even with the strikouts.
I would love Jim Thome (Obviously, I would take the Rob Deer, but I don't want Russ Branyan.

Thome hit over .300 at every level all the way up the minors, so I'd consider that as hitting for high average. After the record-setting signing bonus and the 'five-tool player', 'best power since McGwire' hype, getting Rob Deer out of it all would be a major disappointment.