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gosox41
04-01-2004, 10:34 PM
This may be a little negative, but it's hard for me to get as excited as some here about this team. I love spring and I am looking forward to watching the Sox play (as well as other teams) but it's hard to get that feeling of hope I got the last couple of years. But all is not bleak for me, I did up my win prediction from 75 to 82. It has something to do with the Royals putting 5 pitchers on the DL today.

Anyway, based on the trends of the last couple of years, here are some bets I wish I'd see in Vegas. If you're not turned off by my negativty, feel free to answer the predictions. I'll answer in a later thread.

1. Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation.

2. Date Koch loses the closers role.

3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year

4. Team BA and OBP during this slump

5. Date Magglio will be traded

6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined.

7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up

8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context.

9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004

10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo.

11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year

gosox41
04-01-2004, 10:37 PM
1. Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation

May 4

2. Date Koch loses the closers role.

April 30

3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year:

75

4. Team BA and OBP during this slump

.243, .315

5. Date Magglio will be traded

July 19, conveniently after the All Star game

6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined.

They play 38 times, I'm going with 18 wins


7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up

June 23, right before the Cub/Sox series so Sox can get more negative PR

8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context.

April 4. The media appears to have it in for Frank

9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004

.236

10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo.

June 30

11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year

13 wins for Esteban


Bob

gogosoxgogo
04-01-2004, 10:56 PM
Good thread! Here are my picks:

1. Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation: May 2nd

2. Date Koch loses the closers role: May 10th

3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year: 78

4. Team BA and OBP during this slump: .247, .301

5. Date Magglio will be traded: I honestly don't believe he will be traded

6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined: 22

7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up: Not going to happen

8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context: May 20th

9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004: .234

10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo: You'll first hear complaints April 10th, but almost everybody will be calling for his head by May 16th

11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year: 14

I realize I may be a little optimistic for this thread, but oh well.

A. Cavatica
04-01-2004, 10:57 PM
I'm game.

1. Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation.
After his first start, which IIRC is the Yankees' home opener. (I don't want Cotts starting that game either.) What's that, April 9?

2. Date Koch loses the closers role.
May 24. After a series at Minnesota.

3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year
Not sure how to measure a "slump"...but I'd bet that in hindsight we'll be able to identify a 6 week period where the team underperformed offensively.

4. Team BA and OBP during this slump
Not measurable.

5. Date Magglio will be traded
I don't think he will be.

6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined.
20

7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up
April 26. I think Frank will get into a cold-weather funk early and be grouchy.

8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context.
April 26.

9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004
.278

10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo.
I'll have to look through the archives. It's already happened.

11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year
16

Clembasbal
04-01-2004, 11:20 PM
So glad you are negative...makes Sox fans look great! :?:

cubhater
04-01-2004, 11:32 PM
1. Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation.
April 22
2. Date Koch loses the closers role.
April 11
3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year
(number of games with two or less runs??? if so, I say 15)
4. Team BA and OBP during this slump
(can't make a call here)
5. Date Magglio will be traded
He's staying put, we're in the AL Central hunt 'til the end of the season
6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined.
23
7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up
Sept. 23
8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context.
the week before the first Cub's series so the media can divert their attention from Sosa's latest controversy
9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004
.245
10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo.
already happend
11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year
15

A. Cavatica
04-01-2004, 11:46 PM
Originally posted by Clembasbal
So glad you are negative...makes Sox fans look great! :?:

Psssst...when baseball teams stopped showing loyalty to their fans, that was our cue to stop showing loyalty to them!

Are you seriously suggesting we should be positive when we don't feel the club has made a serious effort to put a winning team on the field?

ukigdog
04-01-2004, 11:51 PM
1. Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation.

Will not be removed (10 wins, 4.5 ERA)

2. Date Koch loses the closers role.

Will not lose role (37 saves)

3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year

23

4. Team BA and OBP during this slump

.254, .345

5. Date Magglio will be traded

Will not be traded

6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined.

25

7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up

No blowup!

8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context.

Media sucks, so probably april 5

9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004

.287

10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo.

Already are

11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year

17

A. Cavatica
04-01-2004, 11:55 PM
Originally posted by ukigdog
4. Team BA and OBP during this slump

.254, .345


That "slump" OBP is higher than the team OBP for the season last year...you must really be an optimist!

ode to veeck
04-02-2004, 12:57 AM
Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation. May 2nd

2. Date Koch loses the closers role. April 20th

3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year 10

4. Team BA and OBP during this slump 235, and 289

5. Date Magglio will be traded doesn't exist

6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined. 18

7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up October 15, fighting who gets to hoist the WS trophy

8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context. April 2

9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004 barely above the Mendoza line

10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo. March 25

11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year 18

oldcomiskey
04-02-2004, 09:24 PM
1.Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation.May 12. 2.Date Koch loses the closers role. May 3

3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year 12

4. Team BA and OBP during this slump 240 and 295

5. Date Magglio will be traded wont happen

6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined. 22

7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up --wont happen
8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context. is tomorrow too soon

9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004 --.256

10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo. already here

11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year 16

PaleHoseGeorge
04-02-2004, 09:29 PM
Any predictions on when we'll all start missing Jerry Manuel? Half past never?

:jerry
"I bet the boys running the Dairy Queen are already missing me!"

:hitless
"Yep. Just like the guy who gave me my PF Flyers to wear in the dugout!"

:)

mike squires
04-02-2004, 09:50 PM
I've got to jump onthis negative bandwagon as well. I like Ozzie as manager but there are just too many holes on this team particulary the bull pen, 4th and 5th starters scare me to death, lack of depth in the bullpen and I'll believe Rowand when I see him produce and don't get me started on Harris (although I like him) It was funny...when Oz was named skipper there were significantly higher number of doubters on this sight. Then spring training started and everyone says we are going to win the division. I just don't see it happening. I'm being realistic this year. Crede, Konerko, Valentin and Olivo will hve to have career years to supplement Thomas, Lee and Ordonez. The thing that might scare me the most is Ordenez or Lee are due for a "year off."

SoxRulecubsdrool
04-02-2004, 10:06 PM
The excessive negativity is why I come to this site less and less. I predict a White Sox Division Title. You guys can go and dwell about how many games we are going to lose.
:gulp:

PaleHoseGeorge
04-02-2004, 10:08 PM
Originally posted by SoxRulecubsdrool
The excessive negativity is why I come to this site less and less. I predict a White Sox Division Title. You guys can go and dwell about how many games we are going to lose.
:gulp:

Yes, but what keeps bringing you back is the : gulp smiley.

:bandance:

ChiSox14305635
04-02-2004, 10:18 PM
:threadsucks

Dan H
04-03-2004, 08:52 AM
I agree with Mike Squires. The Sox have holes everywhere. I think they will win the division, but I really don't think that is saying much. We all know how weak this division is.

This was an awful offseason. It will be interesting to see if the Sox make a move in late July or early August if they doing well. I have a strong feeling they won't.

harwar
04-03-2004, 10:03 AM
Originally posted by gosox41

1. Date in which Schoenweis is removed from the rotation.
early may
2. Date Koch loses the closers role.
mid april
3. Number of games this offensive slumps this year
under 20

5. Date Magglio will be traded
july 25th
6. Total number of wins the Sox have against the Tigers and Indians combined.
22
7. Date of Ozzie and Frank's first blow up
not gonna happen
8. Date the media gets on Frank for something he says that is taken out of context.
every other week
9. WIllie Harris BA for 2004
290
10. Date people at WSI get completely fed up with Shingo.
its already happened for me
11. No. of wins Esteban will have this year
14

gosox41
04-03-2004, 11:25 AM
Originally posted by Clembasbal
So glad you are negative...makes Sox fans look great! :?:

Try not to confuse negativity with reality. There are some things to be excited about this team, but I'm trying to be realistic. The fact is this team has been patched together with journeymen (see Politte), overpaid underacheivers (see Valentin, PK, and Koch), and a guy who had a break out year at 32 (Loiaza).

I feel good about Frank, Magglio, CLee (though I'd trade him for pitching) and Crede.

Bob

CubKilla
04-03-2004, 11:32 AM
Originally posted by Clembasbal
So glad you are negative...makes Sox fans look great! :?:

THIS YEAR IS OUR YEAR!

There's some positivity for you but it also makes me sound like one of the frothing idiots that consider themsleves "baseball" fans on the Northside.

If you can honestly look at this team, as it is right now, and actually feel confident about going deep into a postseason IF this rag-tag crew is good enough to win baseball's worst Division, fine by me. But don't rag on those of us that don't see everything White Sox through rose-colored glasses.

CubKilla
04-03-2004, 11:36 AM
Originally posted by Dan H
This was an awful offseason. It will be interesting to see if the Sox make a move in late July or early August if they doing well. I have a strong feeling they won't.

After last season, the strength of the probable AL East playoff teams (NYY and BOS), and the fact that the AL West rep will probably be moons better than the AL Central rep, I don't think JR will pull the trigger either.

I think a firesale is more likely going to be the scenario.

PaleHoseGeorge
04-03-2004, 01:21 PM
Originally posted by CubKilla
....I think a firesale is more likely going to be the scenario.

It's this scenario that worries me the most. I'm old enough to remember countless "rebuilding" processes from the past that *always* land us right back at a season just like the one we're about to play.

If the '04 Sox fail to reach the playoffs, or if they fail to even contend through July, don't be surprised if JR and KW use it as the perfect excuse for throwing in the towel all over again. The team has been hobbled going into '04, and now it's just a matter of when they choose to put a bullet through the head of this group.

I'm afraid we're all being set up for failure. I think the guys who now complain about the negativity are the same ones who will tell us what a great idea it is to blow this team up next winter, too.

Sigh...

joecrede
04-03-2004, 01:31 PM
With a GM who knew what he was doing, I don't see why the Sox couldn't rebuild and win the division without hurting their chances for advancing in the post-season all that much.

SoxxoS
04-03-2004, 01:40 PM
I don't think KW has shown anything or said anything that said he throws in the towel on ANYTHING. The guy is a competitor, I will give him that.

His GM skills are questionable, but he wants to win.

A. Cavatica
04-03-2004, 01:43 PM
I'm generally on the pessimistic side, but I'm not convinced there will be a fire sale. This may be the year JR scrimps and saves and hopes to back in to the playoffs. Next year we may go for it again.

Who has a better chance to win in 2005 and 2006? Nobody in the Central, certainly; there are no powerhouse teams looming on the horizon.

The Red Sox can't sustain their payroll; if they don't win this year they tear up that club. And the Yankees would probably like to rein in their payroll too.

The new-look Angels might be the team to beat in 2005, because the A's and Mariners' teams have been slowly eroding.

I'll say this for JR: if he isn't willing or able to field a contender every year, at least he picked the right year to dog it.

gosox41
04-04-2004, 08:35 AM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
It's this scenario that worries me the most. I'm old enough to remember countless "rebuilding" processes from the past that *always* land us right back at a season just like the one we're about to play.

If the '04 Sox fail to reach the playoffs, or if they fail to even contend through July, don't be surprised if JR and KW use it as the perfect excuse for throwing in the towel all over again. The team has been hobbled going into '04, and now it's just a matter of when they choose to put a bullet through the head of this group.

I'm afraid we're all being set up for failure. I think the guys who now complain about the negativity are the same ones who will tell us what a great idea it is to blow this team up next winter, too.

Sigh...

If the Sox had a good GM they could have easily contended this season. Next season should be even easier to build for just because Koch and Valentin and their salaries are gone.

People complain about the Sox payroll, but I can easily make the argument that this team could be better with a $50-52 mill. payroll for the 2004 season. I don't want to see the Sox spend less, and I don't think they will in 2005. I just think the Sox wasted a lot of money in underperforming assets.

The way I see it, the 2004 Sox would be a better team if simply Koch and Konerko weren't on it. I think Konerko will have a better year then last year, but he is not worth the $8 mill per he is making. Keep in mind I've been complaining abou this signing since the day the Sox extended him. Right off the bat the Sox are a better team with a $50 mill. payroll unless you like players with straight fastballs and slow guys who lead the league in DP's in your everyday line up.

Now add to the fact that the Sox way over paid for Valentin. Granted they didn't know how the market for SS's was going to turn out, but I think this team would have been better of using Uribe as a starting SS and putting Valentin's money into pitching..

Bob

gosox41
04-04-2004, 08:37 AM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
I'm generally on the pessimistic side, but I'm not convinced there will be a fire sale. This may be the year JR scrimps and saves and hopes to back in to the playoffs. Next year we may go for it again.

Who has a better chance to win in 2005 and 2006? Nobody in the Central, certainly; there are no powerhouse teams looming on the horizon.

The Red Sox can't sustain their payroll; if they don't win this year they tear up that club. And the Yankees would probably like to rein in their payroll too.

The new-look Angels might be the team to beat in 2005, because the A's and Mariners' teams have been slowly eroding.

I'll say this for JR: if he isn't willing or able to field a contender every year, at least he picked the right year to dog it.

Add to this the fact that JR will probably be getting in more TV revenue in that new TV deal they have going. WHile some here see revenue doubling, I highly doubt it. But it should be higher. I don't see the Sox cutting payroll iin 2005, they just need to spend it a lot wiser. You can balme KW for the waste on this team.

Bob