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maurice
03-23-2004, 02:28 PM
Position Players:

Olivo - .260 AVE, 10 HR, 10 SB
Konerko - .280 AVE, 25 HR, 0 SB
Harris, Uribe - .260 AVE, 10 HR, 30 SB
Crede - .280 AVE, 25 HR, 0 SB
Valentin - .250 AVE, 25 HR, 10 SB
Lee - .290 AVE, 30 HR, 20 SB
Rowand, Reed - .280 AVE, 15 HR, 10 SB
Ordonez - .320 AVE, 35 HR, 10 SB
Thomas - .280 AVE, 40 HR, 3 SB

Starting Rotation:

Buehrle - 3.70 ERA - 230 IP
Loaiza - 3.80 ERA - 220 IP
Garland - 4.20 ERA - 210 IP
Wright, Schoeneweis, Rauch, Cotts, etc. - 5.00 ERA

Bullpen:

Marte - 2.50 ERA - 80 IP
Wunsch - 2.50 ERA - 50 IP
Koch - 3.50 ERA - 70 IP
Politte - 3.80 ERA - 70 IP
Jackson - 4.00 ERA - 60 IP
Takatsu, Grilli, Adkins, etc. - 5.00 ERA

---

Bottom Line:

Still plenty of pop, but not enough speed and OBP. Just barely enough pitching to win a very weak division. Still a decent pen, but Colon was a huge loss (no pun intended).

Note:

Given the title of this thread, it really would miss the point to respond that some of the predictions are "too optimistic." Feel free to tell me that I'm not being optimistic enough, but this probably is the best I can do after a crappy offseason.

daveeym
03-23-2004, 02:37 PM
Originally posted by maurice
Position Players:

Olivo - .260 AVE, 10 HR, 10 SB
Konerko - .280 AVE, 25 HR, 0 SB
Harris, Uribe - .260 AVE, 10 HR, 30 SB
Crede - .280 AVE, 25 HR, 0 SB
Valentin - .250 AVE, 25 HR, 10 SB
Lee - .290 AVE, 30 HR, 20 SB
Rowand, Reed - .280 AVE, 15 HR, 10 SB
Ordonez - .320 AVE, 35 HR, 10 SB
Thomas - .280 AVE, 40 HR, 3 SB

Starting Rotation:

Buehrle - 3.70 ERA - 230 IP
Loaiza - 3.80 ERA - 220 IP
Garland - 4.20 ERA - 210 IP
Wright, Schoeneweis, Rauch, Cotts, etc. - 5.00 ERA

Olivo - hope you're right but that's probably a bit high.
Konerko - I think he'll be a bit higher than that and may sneak in an sb or two on a botched hit and run.
Harris, Uribe - if uribe gets most of the pt.
Crede- I'd like more out of him but i think that's fair.
Valentin - I'm looking at .275-.280
Lee - wouldnt' be horrible but i really expect above .300
Ordonez - ditto
thomas - would like to see that around .300

pitchers I can't argue with other than B&L hopefully will be down near 3.00

TaylorStSox
03-23-2004, 03:08 PM
Crede .302 32 91

No joke. He's going to have an all star calibre year. Too bad Chavez and ARod will ruin the chance of him actually making the team.

Realist
03-23-2004, 04:29 PM
We came close to winning the "President's Trophy" in 2000 and I think the 2004 team should be better than that bunch. I'd say that the 2004 Sox have better pitching.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2000.shtml

maurice
03-23-2004, 05:02 PM
.280 AVE / 25 HR for Konerko is about as optimistic as I can be, considering last season's ridiculous .234 / 18. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed that he would return to his career averages.

.280 AVE / 25 HR for Crede would represent a pretty solid improvement over last season's .261 / 19. I don't see him as a .300+ / 30+ guy, but that would be great.

.250 AVE is the limit of my optimism for Valentin. He never has batted even .275. I don't expect a career year at age 34, even if he goes 100% lefty. In fact, he might have a hard time repeating his .237 from 2003 with his platoon partner in KC. If Uribe becomes the regular 2B, KW probably will need to add a backup SS who can play.

.300+ is possible for Lee, but IMHO it's more likely that his AVE will drop somewhat, particularly if Ozzie insists on removing him from the two hole. I'd be happy if he simply duplicated his 2003 performance.

I'd be surprised if Thomas ever hit .300 again. The .280 I predicted would be his highest AVE in three years.

I look for Buehrle and Loaiza to have solid years but not too many guys post an ERA around 3.00 in the AL. I don't expect Loaiza to ever do it again. Buehrle's career low was 3.29 in 2001, and it was almost a full point higher in 2003.

Originally posted by Realist
We came close to winning the "President's Trophy" in 2000 and I think the 2004 team should be better than that bunch. I'd say that the 2004 Sox have better pitching.

Agree about the pitching, but I seriously doubt that this crew will post a .356 team OBP, unfortunately.

SoxxoS
03-23-2004, 05:34 PM
Crede looks like one of those 1 year on, 1 year off kind of players...and this year is his year to be on.

fquaye149
03-23-2004, 10:30 PM
magglio, if you're looking at it optimistically will prolly have more than 10 steals...esp. w/ ozzie

hold2dibber
03-24-2004, 10:26 AM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Crede looks like one of those 1 year on, 1 year off kind of players...and this year is his year to be on.

Seems way too early in his career to make that determination - he's only played 1 1/2 years in the majors so far.

sas1974
03-24-2004, 12:46 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
Crede .302 32 91

No joke. He's going to have an all star calibre year. Too bad Chavez and ARod will ruin the chance of him actually making the team.

Chavez has his money now, maybe he'll ease up a little.

maurice
03-24-2004, 01:20 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Crede looks like one of those 1 year on, 1 year off kind of players.

I don't think so, though that's one plausible interpretation of his history.

My interpretation is that it took him a few hundred ABs to get comfortable at each level as he moved through the Sox system. Once comfortable, he put up some solid numbers. With any luck, the trend he started in the second half of 2003 will play out for the rest of his long career on the South Side.

hold2dibber
03-24-2004, 01:57 PM
Originally posted by maurice
Position Players:

Olivo - .260 AVE, 10 HR, 10 SB
Konerko - .280 AVE, 25 HR, 0 SB
Harris, Uribe - .260 AVE, 10 HR, 30 SB
Crede - .280 AVE, 25 HR, 0 SB
Valentin - .250 AVE, 25 HR, 10 SB
Lee - .290 AVE, 30 HR, 20 SB
Rowand, Reed - .280 AVE, 15 HR, 10 SB
Ordonez - .320 AVE, 35 HR, 10 SB
Thomas - .280 AVE, 40 HR, 3 SB

Starting Rotation:

Buehrle - 3.70 ERA - 230 IP
Loaiza - 3.80 ERA - 220 IP
Garland - 4.20 ERA - 210 IP
Wright, Schoeneweis, Rauch, Cotts, etc. - 5.00 ERA

Bullpen:

Marte - 2.50 ERA - 80 IP
Wunsch - 2.50 ERA - 50 IP
Koch - 3.50 ERA - 70 IP
Politte - 3.80 ERA - 70 IP
Jackson - 4.00 ERA - 60 IP
Takatsu, Grilli, Adkins, etc. - 5.00 ERA

---

Bottom Line:

Still plenty of pop, but not enough speed and OBP. Just barely enough pitching to win a very weak division. Still a decent pen, but Colon was a huge loss (no pun intended).

Note:

Given the title of this thread, it really would miss the point to respond that some of the predictions are "too optimistic." Feel free to tell me that I'm not being optimistic enough, but this probably is the best I can do after a crappy offseason.

Despite your caution against posts saying that the predictions are "too optimistic" I feel the need to weigh in. I tend to agree that the individual predictions are generally about what I would consider to be "best case scenario" for each individual (with a few minor exceptions). But the probability of ALL of the players on the team having 'best case scenario"-type seasons is remote, to say the least. Also, I completely agree that the line-up has plenty of pop, but not enough OBP (I think they do have enough speed). But I have major reservations about the pitching being enough to win the division. The Sox starting pitching is thinner than a co-ed's tank-top after a Spring Break wet t-shirt contest. I think the team's failure to land another decent starter to replace Colon will the team's downfall this year.

maurice
03-24-2004, 05:17 PM
I'm just making the most of my last chance to be optimistic. The starting rotation should be thoroughly exposed by the end of April, but at least they have a chance to hit a ton of homers while playing in a division with no 800-pound gorilla.

:manos
"Chicks dig the long ball."

batmanZoSo
03-24-2004, 06:12 PM
Originally posted by maurice
I'm just making the most of my last chance to be optimistic. The starting rotation should be thoroughly exposed by the end of April, but at least they have a chance to hit a ton of homers while playing in a division with no 800-pound gorilla.

:manos
"Chicks dig the long ball."


Buehrle will win 20 this year.
Loaiza will go 17-10.
Garland will go 15-9

Thomas .290 45 120
Ordonez . 320 36 110
Lee .301 33 108
Crede .284 26 86
Rowand .281 17 66

90 wins. Book it.

jabrch
03-24-2004, 06:30 PM
Originally posted by batmanZoSo
Buehrle will win 20 this year.
Loaiza will go 17-10.
Garland will go 15-9

Thomas .290 45 120
Ordonez . 320 36 110
Lee .301 33 108
Crede .284 26 86
Rowand .281 17 66

90 wins. Book it.

IF those guys put up those numbers, 90 wins would be in the bag. With this division, 160 HRs from those 5, along with a near .300 average and that many RBI would be closer to 100 wins! I'd take it.

I love your optimism.

batmanZoSo
03-25-2004, 10:09 AM
Originally posted by jabrch
IF those guys put up those numbers, 90 wins would be in the bag. With this division, 160 HRs from those 5, along with a near .300 average and that many RBI would be closer to 100 wins! I'd take it.

I love your optimism.

As long as we're closing games that'll do it. And I think there's no way the Twins will win 90--of course, I said the same in August of 2003. Same with the Royals who got worse in my opinion. Juan Gone will bring his chipper attitude to that young clubhouse..that'll go over like a lead zeppelin. :smile:

The good part about my predictions is that all the players have reached or bettered those numbers before. Except for Garland winning 15 and Crede hitting 26 bombs. And neither of which inconceivable--especially with the spring Gar Gar is having. I swear every year I expect big things outta him and he flops and I swore to myself I wouldn't let it happen again, but by god can't a man dream?