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View Full Version : 2004 rotation not drastically different from the 2003 version


MRKARNO
03-15-2004, 04:23 PM
2003 rotation:

Buehrle
Colon
Garland
Loaiza
Wright

2004 rotation (most likely):

Buehrle
Loaiza
Garland
Schoenweis
Wright

Obviously the drop-off between colon and Schoenweis is huge, but Wright is not going to be as bad this year. If KW needs to, he could always trade to replace schoenweis.

A.T. Money
03-15-2004, 04:28 PM
How about our pen? With the loss of Rick White, I think we're screwed!!!!

sas1974
03-15-2004, 04:37 PM
Let's not forget that no one expected what we got out of Esteban. Of course we probably can't except that same production this year either.

CWSGuy406
03-15-2004, 04:43 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
2003 rotation:

Buehrle
Colon
Garland
Loaiza
Wright

2004 rotation (most likely):

Buehrle
Loaiza
Garland
Schoenweis
Wright

Obviously the drop-off between colon and Schoenweis is huge, but Wright is not going to be as bad this year. If KW needs to, he could always trade to replace schoenweis.

I also see some similarities. Coming into last year, we were thinking that Buerhle and Colon would be our aces, providing 35-40 wins between the two. This year, we're hoping the same from Loaiza and Buerhle. Garland was a wildcard last year, as he is this year. I think he'll be better than last year and hopefully eat up some of the innings left behind by Colon. Loaiza and Wright are exactly like Shoenweis and Wright this year, we have no idea how they're going to perform. At least this year we have a lot of options for that fifth spot; Rauch, Diaz, and perhaps if KW makes a deal for another starter.

It's been said before, and the big thing left behind by Colon is that he just was a horse. He ate up so many innings - we need someone to emerge out of those fourth and fifth spots, whether it be Rauch, Diaz, Stewarts, Cotts, Grilli, Wright, Shoenwies, or someone else. Im not expecting a lot from the back end of the rotation, but I will hope for the best...

CubKilla
03-15-2004, 04:48 PM
Originally posted by sas1974
Let's not forget that no one expected what we got out of Esteban. Of course we probably can't except that same production this year either.

Great point. Though I wouldn't mind seeing it, I'd say it highly unlikely Loaiza wins 21 games in a season again.

Wright and Schoenweiss aren't locks for the number 4 or 5 spots yet. I'll feel better (or worse) once I know the definitive 1-5 that Ozzie Guillen decides to go with come Opening Day.

But the loss of Colon will be felt all season long..... in one way or another.

sas1974
03-15-2004, 04:51 PM
Originally posted by CubKilla
But the loss of Colon will be felt all season long..... in one way or another.

No doubt. Whether it's the pen or the starting 5, someone is going to have to throw those innings this year. Let's hope they can do it w/ minimal damage.

SoxBoy14
03-15-2004, 04:55 PM
Originally posted by sas1974
Let's not forget that no one expected what we got out of Esteban. Of course we probably can't except that same production this year either.

I doubt he'll have another cy young performance, but I predict he'll get at least 15 wins and over 170 strike outs

delben91
03-15-2004, 05:28 PM
I imagine Buehrle will be his normal, consistent, "quality start 8 times out of 10" self. Loaiza, I don't think he'll pitch as lights out as he did last season, however, I don't think he'll lose 1-0 to Detroit twice like he did last season either, if the Sox offensive production from the spring is any indication. By the same token, if the offense is more consistent, it can only help Garland, Schoenweis and Wright. Admittedly, I like the potential of Garland and Wright much more than that of Scott, but that's just based on a gut hopefulness of a "hope springs eternal" nature. I just want the season to start so I can see the guys play!

SSN721
03-16-2004, 08:56 AM
Originally posted by delben91
I imagine Buehrle will be his normal, consistent, "quality start 8 times out of 10" self. Loaiza, I don't think he'll pitch as lights out as he did last season, however, I don't think he'll lose 1-0 to Detroit twice like he did last season either, if the Sox offensive production from the spring is any indication. By the same token, if the offense is more consistent, it can only help Garland, Schoenweis and Wright. Admittedly, I like the potential of Garland and Wright much more than that of Scott, but that's just based on a gut hopefulness of a "hope springs eternal" nature. I just want the season to start so I can see the guys play!

I agree. I think that although the rotation is noticebly weaker, mainly in the endurance category, I dont think the offense will put the pitchers in as many bad situations as they did last year. I think the rotation will win a lot more of those quality starts then they did last year because I have a feeling this team will produce runs a little more consistency due to the change in managing style. At least that is what I like to think I just hope that the increase in offensive production can make up for the lack of endurance/quality out of the weakened rotation. I think the bullpen is at the very least no worse then it was when the year started last year. I dont think anyone is begging to have Rick White back.

chisoxmike
03-16-2004, 11:18 AM
Yeah, but, Loaiza won't win 21 games again, and the loss of Gordon will hurt. Who will replace him... Pollette...please.

sas1974
03-16-2004, 12:52 PM
Originally posted by chisoxmike
Yeah, but, Loaiza won't win 21 games again, and the loss of Gordon will hurt. Who will replace him... Pollette...please.

I think the combination of warm bodies we have down in the pen will contribute to make up for Flash. I agree that we don't have one guy that can fill the void he left, but hopefully they will just be able to go w/ the hot hand.

If I had to pick one guy to do it, I don't think it's out of the question that Rauch could step in and do the job. He's had a pretty decent spring thus far.

Kittle
03-16-2004, 12:55 PM
Originally posted by chisoxmike
Yeah, but, Loaiza won't win 21 games again, and the loss of Gordon will hurt. Who will replace him... Pollette...please.

Our pitching is significantly worse without Colon and Gordon. And I agree that another 20+ win season for Loaiza isn't realistic. Maybe 15 or 16.

Brian26
03-16-2004, 12:58 PM
Instead of comparing our opening day expectations from 2003 to our 2004 expectations, maybe we should compare the staff we had last August to what we have now. Just as there were some pleasant surprises (ie Loaiza, Gordon), the exact opposite could happen this year. Are we able, at this point, to overcome a big injury to a starter?

CWSGuy406
03-16-2004, 12:59 PM
Originally posted by chisoxmike
Yeah, but, Loaiza won't win 21 games again, and the loss of Gordon will hurt. Who will replace him... Pollette...please.

*Politte* was very good before last season, where he posted a mid 3 ERA. Politte also brings the heat, I've heard he's up to around 96 and 97 MPH on his fastball, but also has a good 2 seamer.

Has Politte pitched in ST yet? I haven't heard his name too often...

sas1974
03-16-2004, 01:01 PM
Originally posted by Kittle
Our pitching is significantly worse without Colon and Gordon. And I agree that another 20+ win season for Loaiza isn't realistic. Maybe 15 or 16.

I also doubt that Buerhle is going to start out 2-10.

sas1974
03-16-2004, 01:05 PM
Originally posted by CWSGuy406
*Politte* was very good before last season, where he posted a mid 3 ERA. Politte also brings the heat, I've heard he's up to around 96 and 97 MPH on his fastball, but also has a good 2 seamer.

Has Politte pitched in ST yet? I haven't heard his name too often...


C Politte

W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR HBP BB SO
0 0 0.00 3 0 0 0 1 3.0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3

kermittheefrog
03-16-2004, 04:08 PM
The 2004 rotation is drastically different from last year's rotation. We lost a legitimate 1/2 guy and weren't able to replace him. Also, Loaiza's fabulous season took some of the attention away from the fact that Buehrle's production has decreased in consecutive seasons and along with it his velocity has dwindled. There is real reason to be concerned that Buehrle could decline further. So we've lost Colon, Loaiza's production is almost guarenteed to lower, how much we don't know and Buehrle could decline for a third straight season. I'd say Garland, Wright and Rauch all have the potential to breakout and counteract some of what we're losing however it would take a huge breakout performance and more than one of them stepping up for our rotation to come close to it's performance last year.

And neither our offense nor bullpen looks significantly better than last year. In fact both might look worse than they did this time last year. Right now the Sox look horrible and the only saving grace is that the Twins took nearly as many punches this offseason.

Kittle
03-16-2004, 04:28 PM
Originally posted by sas1974
I also doubt that Buerhle is going to start out 2-10.

Even so, we're still worse off than last year. Colon at a TON of innings and that took a lot of pressure off our bullpen. None of our current guys can guarantee 8 innings every fifth day. And I seriously doubt that Loaiza will win 21 games again.

If Buehrle can get back to his '01 form and Garland can get to maybe 15-10/4.10, our rotation will be about equal to last year's. And even if we're luck enough to get that, we're still short a Tom Gordon in the 'pen.

MRKARNO
03-16-2004, 04:35 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
The 2004 rotation is drastically different from last year's rotation. We lost a legitimate 1/2 guy and weren't able to replace him. Also, Loaiza's fabulous season took some of the attention away from the fact that Buehrle's production has decreased in consecutive seasons and along with it his velocity has dwindled. There is real reason to be concerned that Buehrle could decline further. So we've lost Colon, Loaiza's production is almost guarenteed to lower, how much we don't know and Buehrle could decline for a third straight season. I'd say Garland, Wright and Rauch all have the potential to breakout and counteract some of what we're losing however it would take a huge breakout performance and more than one of them stepping up for our rotation to come close to it's performance last year.

And neither our offense nor bullpen looks significantly better than last year. In fact both might look worse than they did this time last year. Right now the Sox look horrible and the only saving grace is that the Twins took nearly as many punches this offseason.

But it's less likely that the sox are going to blow winnable games like they did last year. To say the Sox look horrible is a reactionary statement. This team is mediocre at worst and pretty good at best. I wouldnt call a .500 team horrible and I dont see how anyone thinks this team could possibly not win 78 games.

Originally posted by Kittle
Even so, we're still worse off than last year. Colon at a TON of innings and that took a lot of pressure off our bullpen. None of our current guys can guarantee 8 innings every fifth day. And I seriously doubt that Loaiza will win 21 games again.

If Buehrle can get back to his '01 form and Garland can get to maybe 15-10/4.10, our rotation will be about equal to last year's. And even if we're luck enough to get that, we're still short a Tom Gordon in the 'pen.

We had no clue that Gordon was going to how he was. I think Politte can draw comparisions to Gordon. Politte will be about as good as Gordon was last year.

sas1974
03-16-2004, 04:41 PM
Originally posted by Kittle
Even so, we're still worse off than last year. Colon at a TON of innings and that took a lot of pressure off our bullpen. None of our current guys can guarantee 8 innings every fifth day. And I seriously doubt that Loaiza will win 21 games again.

If Buehrle can get back to his '01 form and Garland can get to maybe 15-10/4.10, our rotation will be about equal to last year's. And even if we're luck enough to get that, we're still short a Tom Gordon in the 'pen.

There's no doubt that our pitching staff is worse than last years, at this moment, on paper. There are a lot of unknowns. I for one, thought Flash would be worthless last year and he proved me wrong. I have the same opinion of Scho this year. There is no doubt that a lot of things need to come together in the right order for this staff to be successful, but I am not counting them out.

Kittle
03-16-2004, 08:38 PM
Originally posted by sas1974
There's no doubt that our pitching staff is worse than last years, at this moment, on paper. There are a lot of unknowns. I for one, thought Flash would be worthless last year and he proved me wrong. I have the same opinion of Scho this year. There is no doubt that a lot of things need to come together in the right order for this staff to be successful, but I am not counting them out.

I'm not counting them out either, but we had the pitching talent to go deep into the playoffs last year. I don't see that same level of talent this year. If some of the younger pitchers don't step up, we'll be lucky to win 86 games again.

sas1974
03-16-2004, 10:26 PM
Originally posted by Kittle
I'm not counting them out either, but we had the pitching talent to go deep into the playoffs last year. I don't see that same level of talent this year. If some of the younger pitchers don't step up, we'll be lucky to win 86 games again.

I think we're on the same page here. A couple of the young bucks are definitely going to need to arrive(FINALLY) in order to pick up the slack. It would also be nice if the O didn't hang the pitchers out to dry the entire first half of the season this time around.

ChiWhiteSox1337
03-16-2004, 10:34 PM
Schoeneweis had 205 1/3 IP in 2001 as a starter. I know that isn't as high as Colon but that's still a lot. The only concern is can he pitch quality innings like Colon?

kermittheefrog
03-17-2004, 12:34 AM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
But it's less likely that the sox are going to blow winnable games like they did last year. To say the Sox look horrible is a reactionary statement. This team is mediocre at worst and pretty good at best. I wouldnt call a .500 team horrible and I dont see how anyone thinks this team could possibly not win 78 games.


Who cares if we're a lock to win 78 games? If we don't make the playoffs the season is a failure. Especially in a division like ours.

Kuzman
03-17-2004, 12:41 AM
i think we have a better rotation now then we did back in 2000....

now if we could just have the fire and passion in our bats and stop worring who is who and all the small ****, let the bats start flying where ya dont have to worry about those 10 runs danny wright will give up every game.

SoxxoS
03-17-2004, 01:09 AM
Originally posted by ChiWhiteSox1337
Schoeneweis had 205 1/3 IP in 2001 as a starter. I know that isn't as high as Colon but that's still a lot. The only concern is can he pitch quality innings like Colon?

Well, I can pitch 200 innings if the Sox want, but we need quality innings. That is what Bart gave us. He wasn't the ace we all wanted to see, but he filled in the 2 or 3 hole perfectly.