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Kittle
03-05-2004, 09:43 AM
Was thinking about it this morning for some reason. Out of the current and recently-retired players, here's my list:


Locks: Clemens, Bonds, McGwire, Maddux, Smoltz, Palmiero, Gwynn, Will Clark, Omar Vizquel

Probable: Frank, Sammy, Glavine, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, I-Rod, R. Alomar, Barry Larkin

Questionable: (or still needs a few more good years): Pedro, Schilling, Jeter, A-Rod, M. Rivera, Orosco, Lofton, Rob Nen, Olerud, Saberhagen, Mark Grace


I'm sure that there's a number of players I've overlooked as well...

Deadguy
03-05-2004, 09:49 AM
Omar Vizquel, John Smoltz, and Will Clark are locks?

I'd move Frank, Sosa, I-Rod, Larkin, and Roberto Alomar into the lock category, along with Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey Jr.

voodoochile
03-05-2004, 09:54 AM
Originally posted by Deadguy
Omar Vizquel, John Smoltz, and Will Clark are locks?

I'd move Frank, Sosa, I-Rod, Larkin, and Roberto Alomar into the lock category, along with Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey Jr.

I agree.

Kittle
03-05-2004, 09:59 AM
Originally posted by Deadguy
Omar Vizquel, John Smoltz, and Will Clark are locks?

I'd move Frank, Sosa, I-Rod, Larkin, and Roberto Alomar into the lock category, along with Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey Jr.

With apologies to Ozzie Smith, Vizquel's the best defensive SS of our generation... and he hit better than Ozzie. If you compare him to his peers and factor in that the power hitting SS (A-Rod, Nomar, Jeter... who also are inferior defensively) didn't emerge until the latter half of his career, he's a lock. I'm also including Smoltz as a lock because of his transition from dominant starter to dominant closer after major elbow surgeries. I see your point about Clark, although I'm pretty sure he'll get in.

I agree that Bagwell, Larkin, Frank, Sam-Me, I-Rod, and Piazza could be considered locks as well. However, I'm not so sure about Biggio and Griffey (especially Griffey).

Just my $0.02...

voodoochile
03-05-2004, 10:25 AM
Originally posted by Kittle
With apologies to Ozzie Smith, Vizquel's the best defensive SS of our generation... and he hit better than Ozzie. If you compare him to his peers and factor in that the power hitting SS (A-Rod, Nomar, Jeter... who also are inferior defensively) didn't emerge until the latter half of his career, he's a lock. I'm also including Smoltz as a lock because of his transition from dominant starter to dominant closer after major elbow surgeries. I see your point about Clark, although I'm pretty sure he'll get in.

I agree that Bagwell, Larkin, Frank, Sam-Me, I-Rod, and Piazza could be considered locks as well. However, I'm not so sure about Biggio and Griffey (especially Griffey).

Just my $0.02...

Defensive players just don't get the consideration for the HOF that their offensively oriented counterparts do and with good reason.

How long did Luis Apprecio wait for his call from the Hall?

Paulwny
03-05-2004, 10:26 AM
I've heard there still are many writers, don't remember any names, who have claimed they will never vote a DH into the hall because they don't see them as complete players.
Frank and Edgar Martinez will be toss-ups. I'm hoping some of these writers will soon be replaced by younger men giving Frank and possibly Harold a better shot at the HOF.

ode to veeck
03-05-2004, 10:36 AM
Although a great defensive SS, Ozzie Smith tends to get overrated vs other great SSs of his time. For example, our own Ozzie Guillen was just as good defensively. Vizquel deserves it, but sometimes harder to get these types in the hall (vs the steroid spectaculars that saved baseball)

Move Frank and Sammy into the lock category, as it won't even be close for either of them. They had both had stretches in their careers that were incomparable historically.

Will Clark and Mark Grace both to probable, with fairly comperable careers, with the edge to Grace because of the D-back ring, his general attitude (it is a popularity contest), and the fact (I think) he had more hits than anyone in the 90s.

faneidde
03-05-2004, 10:40 AM
Orosco? Unless there's someone I'm forgetting, you're talking about the RP Jessie Orosco. No way he gets into the Hall of Fame. Other than being and old fart, he's never done anything. If he even makes the ballot I'd be surprised.

ode to veeck
03-05-2004, 10:54 AM
How long did Luis Apprecio wait for his call from the Hall?


Exactly, though Vizquel deserves it. By the way, the comment about power hitting shortstops appearing only late in his career is not accurate. Robin Yount and Ernie Banks are two good examples of earlier power hitting SSs, even though they moved to other positions later in their careers.

Unfortunately, Harold is a questionable, though JR & co will lobby hard, as many of his stats racked up as a DH and missing that big 3000 hits mark barrier by 114 hits could be a differentiator

voodoochile
03-05-2004, 11:09 AM
Originally posted by Paulwny
I've heard there still are many writers, don't remember any names, who have claimed they will never vote a DH into the hall because they don't see them as complete players.
Frank and Edgar Martinez will be toss-ups. I'm hoping some of these writers will soon be replaced by younger men giving Frank and possibly Harold a better shot at the HOF.

One can only hope that they will take a similar stance against the steroid abusers. It will be a crying shame if a guy who played his whole career at MLB recognized postions will be left out over a perceived bias whilen guys who clearly (at the least) bent the rules and behaved unethically (from a spirit of the game perspective) and (at the worst) brazenly broke the law of the country while using potentially life threatening drugs to gain a competitive edge on their fellow union members are allowed to waltz in on the basis of their drug induced numbers.

Frank was primarily a 1B during his prime years which as has been pointed out were a stretch that was among the 2 or 3 best ever over a prolonged period of time. Anyone who doesn't vote for Frank clearly doesn't understand baseball, IMO.

kittle42
03-05-2004, 11:10 AM
Originally posted by Kittle
Locks: Clemens, Bonds, McGwire, Maddux, Smoltz, Palmiero, Gwynn, Will Clark, Omar Vizquel

Probable: Frank, Sammy, Glavine, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, I-Rod, R. Alomar, Barry Larkin

Questionable: (or still needs a few more good years): Pedro, Schilling, Jeter, A-Rod, M. Rivera, Orosco, Lofton, Rob Nen, Olerud, Saberhagen, Mark Grace

This list gave me a good laugh this morning. John Smoltz, Will Clark, Omar Vizquel, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Jesse Orosco, Kenny Lofton, Robb Nen, John Olerud, Bret Saberhagen, and Mark Grace will only get to Cooperstown if they buy a ticket.

HURT35
03-05-2004, 11:10 AM
The only way Mark Grace (and Will Clark) are getting in the HOF are with a paid ticket. I dont even think you could craft an argument for Grace other than siting the Cub propaganda crap that they have tried to shove down peoples throats over the years. "He's a great glove guy, gets a lot of doubles, most hits in the 1990's...blah blah blah." The most hits thing is basically a testiment to hitting .300, not walking an overally great deal and being a starter for all 10 years in question, nothing more. At no point in those 10 years or at any point in his career was he the BEST hitter or best first baseman for that matter. He hit 3rd or 4th in that bandbox year after year and NEVER drove in a 100 RBI's. I know I am going off on a rant, but the Grace thing always drove me crazy, he was better than average hitter (not in terms of production for his position, though). Period.

jackbrohamer
03-05-2004, 11:11 AM
Harold Baines will never make it, but if you compare his career offensive numbers to Billy Williams' they're pretty close. If the Sox had the same PR machine as the Scrubs did, Baines would have a chance

voodoochile
03-05-2004, 11:11 AM
Originally posted by ode to veeck
Exactly, though Vizquel deserves it. By the way, the comment about power hitting shortstops appearing only late in his career is not accurate. Robin Yount and Ernie Banks are two good examples of earlier power hitting SSs, even though they moved to other positions later in their careers.

Unfortunately, Harold is a questionable, though JR & co will lobby hard, as many of his stats racked up as a DH and missing that big 3000 hits mark barrier by 114 hits could be a differentiator

Haaarold is the only guy in baseball with 1500 RBI who is on the bubble. Every other one who is eligible is in...

Kittle
03-05-2004, 11:32 AM
Originally posted by kittle42
This list gave me a good laugh this morning. John Smoltz, Will Clark, Omar Vizquel, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Jesse Orosco, Kenny Lofton, Robb Nen, John Olerud, Bret Saberhagen, and Mark Grace will only get to Cooperstown if they buy a ticket.

Smoltz and Glavine definitely won't get in? I strongly disagree. Both have storied careers, tremendous success, WS rings, and, IIRC, Cy Youngs.

Smoltz: 163-120 + 110 saves (!), 3.29 ERA
Glavine: 251-157, 3.43 ERA

Anyone with 250 career wins deserves serious consideration. And Smoltz's transformatoin from stud starter to stud closer after multiple elbow surgeries is simply amazing. Dude's 37 and had 45 saves and a 1.12 ERA last year.

Lofton was stealing 60-70 bases, hitting over .300, and was arguably the best defensive CF in his prime (early-mid '90s). Olerud was a stud in the early '90s and has been consistent since then. Those two have at least a decent shot.

Perhaps I was being a bit over-the-top with the Orocso, Saberhagen, and Nen plugs, but I feel that the others have legitimate shots.

Oh, and I forgot to include Ricky and Cal as "locks." My bad.

thepaulbowski
03-05-2004, 11:33 AM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Frank was primarily a 1B during his prime years which as has been pointed out were a stretch that was among the 2 or 3 best ever over a prolonged period of time. Anyone who doesn't vote for Frank clearly doesn't understand baseball, IMO.

I whole heartedly agree. Frank Thomas is probably one of the most underappreciated baseball players in history.

Brian26
03-05-2004, 11:42 AM
Originally posted by kittle42
This list gave me a good laugh this morning. John Smoltz, Will Clark, Omar Vizquel, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Jesse Orosco, Kenny Lofton, Robb Nen, John Olerud, Bret Saberhagen, and Mark Grace will only get to Cooperstown if they buy a ticket.

Agreed. The only guy that might have an outside shot, and this is a long shot, is Vizquel, based on his defense. And I'll be the first to admit that's a very long shot. Orosco's longevity doesn't mean anything since he's been mediocre most of the time. The only reason he's still around is that he's lefthanded. If Smoltz were to pitch another 5 years, getting 50 saves a year, he might have a chance.

Kittle
03-05-2004, 11:52 AM
Originally posted by ode to veeck
By the way, the comment about power hitting shortstops appearing only late in his career is not accurate. Robin Yount and Ernie Banks are two good examples of earlier power hitting SSs, even though they moved to other positions later in their careers.


Yount, Banks, and Vizquel didn't play at the same time. And Yount didn't have A-Rod and Nomar's power numbers.

My point was that, if you were to compare Vizquel to his peers, he would be at or near the top for the majority of his career when one accounts for both offense and defense.

kittle42
03-05-2004, 11:59 AM
Originally posted by Kittle
Smoltz and Glavine definitely won't get in? I strongly disagree. Both have storied careers, tremendous success, WS rings, and, IIRC, Cy Youngs.

Smoltz: 163-120 + 110 saves (!), 3.29 ERA
Glavine: 251-157, 3.43 ERA


Still not sold on Smoltz, but I wasn't aware Glavine's numbers were that good. I'll admit he's got a shot unless he continues to post a few more horrible years.

Kittle
03-05-2004, 12:02 PM
Originally posted by kittle42
Still not sold on Smoltz, but I wasn't aware Glavine's numbers were that good. I'll admit he's got a shot unless he continues to post a few more horrible years.

I understand what you're saying about Smoltz. I wouldn't have even included him if he hadn't been a stud in the 'pen for the past two and a half years. Plus, he's one of the "good guys" in MLB and, since the voting is a "popularity contest" of sorts, that'll help him as well.

And, of course, I'm a huge Smoltz fan, so I'm biased! :D:

MisterB
03-05-2004, 12:29 PM
Originally posted by Paulwny
I've heard there still are many writers, don't remember any names, who have claimed they will never vote a DH into the hall because they don't see them as complete players.
Frank and Edgar Martinez will be toss-ups. I'm hoping some of these writers will soon be replaced by younger men giving Frank and possibly Harold a better shot at the HOF.

Molitor just got voted in and he had more games played as a DH than any other position, so there's some hope. Martinez is an interesting case in that he was a good hitter who became a great hitter at the age of 32, when he beat is previous high in HR by 11 (18 to 29) and RBI by 40 (73 to 113). He's been a far more productive hitter in his 30's than he was in his 20's.

MarkEdward
03-05-2004, 12:32 PM
Good thread. I like discussing the HOF chances of current players.

Anyway, what's with the love for Vizquel? For a shortstop, he has had a decent hitting career: no pop, but league average OBPs. I think some seem to be overrating his defense just a bit. According to any advanced defensive metric, he's only been a bit above average throughout his career. Ozzie Smith was a much better player overall. Smith, though not a great hitter, did have an OBP higher than the league average during his career. He was also great on the base paths, posting a 80% stolen base percentage over 19 seasons. Vizquel has stolen almost 300 less bases while posting a stolen base percentage of 70. His defense was superb. Using Rate2 (a Baseball Prospectus stat), Ozzie was at 111 for his career. The league average is 100. Vizquel, over his career, has been at 104.

As for current HOFers playing in the majors, here's my list. I'll leave my "on the fence" list out for now:
ARI: Randy Johnson.
ATL: Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones (if he keeps us his current pace), John Smoltz, Bobby Cox.
CHC: Sammy Sosa, Greg Maddux.
CIN: Ken Griffey Jr.
COL: Todd Helton, Larry Walker.
HOU: Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio.
NYM: Mike Piazza, Tom Glavine.
PHI: Jim Thome.
STL: Albert Pujols.
SFG: Barry Bonds.
BAL: Rafeal Palmeiro.
CHW: Frank Thomas.
DET: Ivan Rodriguez.
NYY: Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Kevin Brown, Jorge Posada.
BOS: Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez.
OAK: Most likely one or two or all of the Big Three.
SEA: Edgar Martinez.
TBD: Fred McGriff.
TOR: Carlos Delgado.
FA: Rickey Henderson.

I'm probably missing some obvious names, though.

Kittle
03-05-2004, 12:33 PM
Originally posted by MisterB
Molitor just got voted in and he had more games played as a DH than any other position, so there's some hope. Martinez is an interesting case in that he was a good hitter who became a great hitter at the age of 32, when he beat is previous high in HR by 11 (18 to 29) and RBI by 40 (73 to 113). He's been a far more productive hitter in his 30's than he was in his 20's.

Frank played 1B full-time from late '90 through 96 or '97 and those were his most productive years. Combine that with his .428 career OBP, 400+ HRs, 2 MVPs, and Batting Title, and it'd be a crime if he didn't get in.

Kittle
03-05-2004, 12:37 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Good thread. I like discussing the HOF chances of current players.

Anyway, what's with the love for Vizquel? For a shortstop, he has had a decent hitting career: no pop, but league average OBPs. I think some seem to be overrating his defense just a bit. According to any advanced defensive metric, he's only been a bit above average throughout his career. Ozzie Smith was a much better player overall. Smith, though not a great hitter, did have an OBP higher than the league average during his career. He was also great on the base paths, posting a 80% stolen base percentage over 19 seasons. Vizquel has stolen almost 300 less bases while posting a stolen base percentage of 70. His defense was superb. Using Rate2 (a Baseball Prospectus stat), Ozzie was at 111 for his career. The league average is 100. Vizquel, over his career, has been at 104.

As for current HOFers playing in the majors, here's my list. I'll leave my "on the fence" list out for now:
ARI: Randy Johnson.
ATL: Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones (if he keeps us his current pace), John Smoltz, Bobby Cox.
CHC: Sammy Sosa, Greg Maddux.
CIN: Ken Griffey Jr.
COL: Todd Helton, Larry Walker.
HOU: Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio.
NYM: Mike Piazza, Tom Glavine.
PHI: Jim Thome.
STL: Albert Pujols.
SFG: Barry Bonds.
BAL: Rafeal Palmeiro.
CHW: Frank Thomas.
DET: Ivan Rodriguez.
NYY: Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Kevin Brown, Jorge Posada.
BOS: Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez.
OAK: Most likely one or two or all of the Big Three.
SEA: Edgar Martinez.
TBD: Fred McGriff.
TOR: Carlos Delgado.
FA: Rickey Henderson.

I'm probably missing some obvious names, though.

Wow, and I was criticized for throwing in some questionable guys. Bernie Williams, Jim Thome, and Manny Ramirez will probably not get in, IMO.

And I think that Posada, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, and Griffey are all very questionable at best. Mulder, Hudson, Zito, and Todd Helton all have a LONG way to go before we can even consider them.

RKMeibalane
03-05-2004, 01:07 PM
Locks: Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell, Tom Glavine, Barry Larkin, and Mike Piazza

Questionable: Ken Griffey Jr., Craig Biggio, Rafael Palmeiro, and Edgar Martinez, Ivan Rodriguez

Getting There: Alex Rodriguez, Vladamir Guerrero

Doubtful: Mark Grace

faneidde
03-05-2004, 01:21 PM
Guys, who are currently playing and right now have done enough to be in the Hall of Fame, imo:
Frank Thomas, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Rafeal Palmeiro (check his numbers if you don't think he's worthy), Pudge Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Matinez, Roger Clemens,

Guys who I think will eventually have the resume to go:
Vlad, Mags, Nomar, Jeter, Helton, Mark Prior, Manny Ramirez, and my sleeper pick, Scott Rolen (best defensive 3rd basemen ever and a helluva lot better hitter than Vizquel)

Kittle
03-05-2004, 01:48 PM
Originally posted by faneidde
Scott Rolen (best defensive 3rd basemen ever and a helluva lot better hitter than Vizquel)

Vizquel didn't play 3B and Rolen is not the best defensive 3B ever. Mike Schmidt, Brooks Robinson, and Buddy Bell all have MANY more Gold Gloves at 3B. Hell, I'd argue that Robin Ventura was better defensively.

FWIW, Vizquel won 9 Gold Gloves in a row. Not bad for a guy who supposedly can't hit.

I had forgotten how long Griffey has played. I guess that a career .294 average, 481 HR, and 1384 RBIs are HOF-worthy.

ode to veeck
03-05-2004, 01:59 PM
And Yount didn't have A-Rod and Nomar's power numbers.

Yeah, Yount was kind of a stretch as power hitter, though a really great hitter, outside of his MVP '82 season (29HR peak)

As pointed out earlier, it's still hard to get in as a defensive specialist, if the offensive numbers don't stand out among all players, not just at their position, Aparicio is a good example, though Ozzie's a unique exception/example of what overhype can do (also the prime example of the fact this is still basically a popularity contest). HOF-ability usually measured against all modern players, not just those that played at same time, these facts combined will make it hard for Vizquel

Grace will be tough to get in as you look at other comparable 1B hitters like Garvey and Buckner who have not made it, even considering Grace's great postseason success don't help(Garvey's was better).

If Frank doesn't get in on the 1st ballot, he should tear up a few tricep muscles whacking around some of his favorite writers.

Sox anti-PR history with the current press corps makes it even tougher for Harold, even with > 2800 hits and 1600 RBI

ode to veeck
03-05-2004, 02:05 PM
Ricky Henderson's only barrier to getting in HOF is his unwillingness to ever retire. Once he figures out how to do that, he's pobably a shoe in

I think Griffey's got a pretty good shot

I think Mags will be tough, unless he does it by pure longevity and career numbers or (unlikely) he switches over to the dark side of the force and goes in with steriod asterisks along with McGuire, Barry, and ShamMe

Kittle
03-05-2004, 02:15 PM
Originally posted by ode to veeck
Yeah, Yount was kind of a stretch as power hitter, though a really great hitter, outside of his MVP '82 season (29HR peak)

As pointed out earlier, it's still hard to get in as a defensive specialist, if the offensive numbers don't stand out among all players, not just at their position, Aparicio is a good example, though Ozzie's a unique exception/example of what overhype can do (also the prime example of the fact this is still basically a popularity contest). HOF-ability usually measured against all modern players, not just those that played at same time, these facts combined will make it hard for Vizquel

Grace will be tough to get in as you look at other comparable 1B hitters like Garvey and Buckner who have not made it, even considering Grace's great postseason success don't help(Garvey's was better).

If Frank doesn't get in on the 1st ballot, he should tear up a few tricep muscles whacking around some of his favorite writers.

Sox anti-PR history with the current press corps makes it even tougher for Harold, even with > 2800 hits and 1600 RBI

I completely agree with you.

To top it off, defense is difficult to measure statistically. Having watched Ozzie throughout the '80s and Vizquel rob Sox hitters of numerous base hits in the '90s, I can say that they're pretty much a dead lock in terms of defensive prowess. And both are significantly better than A-Rod, Jeter, Nomar, etc. defensively. Statistics like fielding percentage won't tell you that.

I agree that Grace probably won't get it, but I think that he at least merits serious consideration (name on the ballot). I agree about Garvey and Buckner's **** up in the '86 WS pretty much killed his chances.

The anti-DH bias of the voters is complete crap and will keep deserving players like 'Gar and Harold out. It's very unfortunate.

ode to veeck
03-05-2004, 02:30 PM
Statistics like fielding percentage won't tell you that.

Absolutely, same for Ozzie Guillen, who robbed more than his fair share of would be base hits, yet it doesn't show in the stats at all. Errors stat doesn't help either, just look at Royce's pathetic errorless streak (while he dodged hot grounders and had the range of a lawn chair)

TaylorStSox
03-05-2004, 02:43 PM
Boy oh boy oh boy. Some of you guys act like this is the NBA. Not any player that has been "good" for a number of years can make it to the hall in baseball. Guys like Smoltz, Grace and Lofton have a snowball's shot in hell. Smoltz might have an insulated snoball's shot though. Grace and Lofton? You have to be kidding me.

Locks: Palmeiro, Thomas, Maddux, Clemens, Bonds, McGuire, Henderson, Piazza

I'm probably forgetting some people but there aren't a whole lot that get in. Guys like ARod, IRod, Ramirez and Vlad have a strong shot if they continue to produce. IRod might be a lock now though. Let's not forget that there are a ton of guys that had fantastic careers that will never make it. Look at Blylevin's numbers.

Right now, I just don't by Riveria. Being that he's a career reliever, he'll have to produce for at least 7 more years IMO. And, rightfully so.

ode to veeck
03-05-2004, 04:02 PM
I agree on Rivera, needs more years to be there and the blown save in game 7 of WS don't help (loved it though)

voodoochile
03-05-2004, 04:07 PM
I am surprised no one has even mentione Albert Belle as a bubble guy. His numbers for the length of his career are amazing and damned close to Frank's over the same number of years from his career. He isn't that far behind the other guys and has a career OPS pushing .970. The only thing he lacks is tenure.

Manny Rameriz will be in if he can continue to hit like he has. His OPS is over 1 for his career and the list of guys who can claim that is NOT bad company.

:joey
"Man, where's the love? You guys act like it was your kids I tried to run over."

Kittle
03-05-2004, 04:25 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
I am surprised no one has even mentione Albert Belle as a bubble guy. His numbers for the length of his career are amazing and damned close to Frank's over the same number of years from his career. He isn't that far behind the other guys and has a career OPS pushing .970. The only thing he lacks is tenure.

Manny Rameriz will be in if he can continue to hit like he has. His OPS is over 1 for his career and the list of guys who can claim that is NOT bad company.

:joey
"Man, where's the love? You guys act like it was your kids I tried to run over."

Belle won't get in, considering every sports writer in the country hates his guts. His career was cut short and there's significant evidence that he used corked bats throughout his career ("Batgate" at CP and Vizquel's book). It's Vizquel and Sorrento's word against his, but the speculation will definitely work against Joey.

Ramirez, on the other hand, just might. But his reputation won't help him either.

SoxFan76
03-05-2004, 04:42 PM
Rickey Henderson is definitely a lock. I know he played for 186 years, but he has like every record.

JRIG
03-05-2004, 05:34 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
I am surprised no one has even mentione Albert Belle as a bubble guy. His numbers for the length of his career are amazing and damned close to Frank's over the same number of years from his career. He isn't that far behind the other guys and has a career OPS pushing .970. The only thing he lacks is tenure.

Manny Rameriz will be in if he can continue to hit like he has. His OPS is over 1 for his career and the list of guys who can claim that is NOT bad company.

:joey
"Man, where's the love? You guys act like it was your kids I tried to run over."

Belle's career OPS is .933.

I'd say he's the 90s Dale Murphy. I don't think either of those guys did quite enough to get it. Murphy had an outstanding peak but did some damage by sticking around too long. Belle too had an outstanding peak But may not have stuck around long enough.

MarkEdward
03-06-2004, 01:25 AM
Originally posted by Kittle
Wow, and I was criticized for throwing in some questionable guys. Bernie Williams, Jim Thome, and Manny Ramirez will probably not get in, IMO.

I think Williams stands a very good chance of making it, and the fact that he's played on the Yankees will greatly help him. For a center fielder, he's a great hitter- career 131 OPS+. He's been great in the playoffs, and that should also get him some votes. He's only 34, so these next three years will be very important for him. If he continues to slowly decline, he probably won't make it. If he goes back to his 2001-2002 levels for the next three to four years, his chances improve greatly.

Thome is a bit of a long shot, but his similarity list is littered with HOFers- Kiner, McCovey, Killebrew, Reggie Jackson. If he can continue to put up 160 OPS+ for the next six years, which is in the realm of possibility, I think he'll get in.

Manny Ramirez has been one of the best hitters of this generation. His HOF chances will be determined by his decline phase. I can see him putting up .315/.400/.580 lines for the next seven years, though.

And I think that Posada, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, and Griffey are all very questionable at best. Mulder, Hudson, Zito, and Todd Helton all have a LONG way to go before we can even consider them.

I'll agree with you on Posada. Larry Walker has been one of the top hitters of this generation, and his defense is superb. I sway back and forth on Kevin Brown. If he retired today, I can see an argument for his enshrinement. I could also see an argument against his induction. Like many of the players mentioned, these next couple years will be key for Brown. Griffey, even if he was to retire today, will get in rather easily. Arguably the best all-around player of the 90s. From my own personal view, these players personify the 90s: Griffey, Bonds, Thomas, Maddux, Clemens.

I pretty much agree on Mulder, Hudson, Zito, and Helton. I'd say Hudson and Helton have the best chances of the group, though.

JRIG
03-06-2004, 01:49 AM
Originally posted by MarkEdward

I'll agree with you on Posada. Larry Walker has been one of the top hitters of this generation, and his defense is superb. I sway back and forth on Kevin Brown. If he retired today, I can see an argument for his enshrinement. I could also see an argument against his induction. Like many of the players mentioned, these next couple years will be key for Brown. Griffey, even if he was to retire today, will get in rather easily. Arguably the best all-around player of the 90s. From my own personal view, these players personify the 90s: Griffey, Bonds, Thomas, Maddux, Clemens.

I pretty much agree on Mulder, Hudson, Zito, and Helton. I'd say Hudson and Helton have the best chances of the group, though.

I like Kevin Brown a lot, but I think he needs 2-3 more great seasons. Otherwise, he's just David Cone, and as great as he was I'don't think he has a chance in hell of getting in.

Kittle
03-06-2004, 09:31 AM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
I think Williams stands a very good chance of making it, and the fact that he's played on the Yankees will greatly help him. For a center fielder, he's a great hitter- career 131 OPS+. He's been great in the playoffs, and that should also get him some votes. He's only 34, so these next three years will be very important for him. If he continues to slowly decline, he probably won't make it. If he goes back to his 2001-2002 levels for the next three to four years, his chances improve greatly.

I hadn't looked at Bernie's BA for some time. After looking at his numbers, I agree that he has a decent chance. The problem is that, even though he may be one of the more deserving CFs, outfielders tend to get lumped into one category. Mags and Manny Ramirez are better hitters than Bernie, IMO, and I don't necessarily think they're deserving.

The problem with Bernie is that he's a good hitter, but not a spectacular one (most outfielders are). I think that Kenny Lofton may be more deserving. In his prime (early-mid/late '90s), he was the best leadoff hitter in the game, was stealing 60-70 bases/yr, and has a .300 career BA. Defensively, he was better than Bernie, IMO (though not by much).

I agree regarding Larry Walker and Helton, although it'll be interesting to see how much the voters take into account Coors Field.

SoxFan76
03-07-2004, 02:12 AM
Originally posted by Kittle
I agree regarding Larry Walker and Helton, although it'll be interesting to see how much the voters take into account Coors Field.

You still have to make contact with the ball. Plus there are plenty of pitching parks. They have to take that into consideration as well. Todd Helton is awesome, by the way. He doesn't get mentioned too often, but he is a great hitter.

cornball
03-07-2004, 08:11 AM
The only locks for the HOF I see right now are:

Clemens, Bonds, Maddox, McGuire, Sosa, I-Rod, Jeter, A-Rod, and Henderson.

The voters for the HOF are a fickle group.

idseer
03-07-2004, 10:27 AM
i suppose mcguire IS a lock ... but i don't happen to think he's a hof'er. less than 1414 rbi's and a .263 something ba doesn't impress me much. yeah he hit a lot of hr's, but who doesn't these days. homer hitting is really ALL he ever did well. imo, that's not a hof'er.
i also don't think sosa is a hof'er.

oldcomiskey
03-07-2004, 10:55 AM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Good thread. I like discussing the HOF chances of current players.

Anyway, what's with the love for Vizquel? For a shortstop, he has had a decent hitting career: no pop, but league average OBPs. I think some seem to be overrating his defense just a bit. According to any advanced defensive metric, he's only been a bit above average throughout his career. Ozzie Smith was a much better player overall. Smith, though not a great hitter, did have an OBP higher than the league average during his career. He was also great on the base paths, posting a 80% stolen base percentage over 19 seasons. Vizquel has stolen almost 300 less bases while posting a stolen base percentage of 70. His defense was superb. Using Rate2 (a Baseball Prospectus stat), Ozzie was at 111 for his career. The league average is 100. Vizquel, over his career, has been at 104.

As for current HOFers playing in the majors, here's my list. I'll leave my "on the fence" list out for now:
ARI: Randy Johnson.
ATL: Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones (if he keeps us his current pace), John Smoltz, Bobby Cox.
CHC: Sammy Sosa, Greg Maddux.
CIN: Ken Griffey Jr.
COL: Todd Helton, Larry Walker.
HOU: Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio.
NYM: Mike Piazza, Tom Glavine.
PHI: Jim Thome.
STL: Albert Pujols.
SFG: Barry Bonds.
BAL: Rafeal Palmeiro.
CHW: Frank Thomas.
DET: Ivan Rodriguez.
NYY: Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Kevin Brown, Jorge Posada.
BOS: Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez.
OAK: Most likely one or two or all of the Big Three.
SEA: Edgar Martinez.
TBD: Fred McGriff.
TOR: Carlos Delgado.
FA: Rickey Henderson.

I'm probably missing some obvious names, though.

Not only did you miss some obvios ones but you missed some on YOUR list as well

No way Jeter gets in and youve got a lot of young players on there as well, anything can happen, injuries etc.
What makes Pudge Jr, a hall-of-famer or any of the Oakland pitchers or Delgado for that reason or Bernie or Posada--and griffey and Thomas have to have 500 Hrs and Martines has to have 3000 hits to get in

oldcomiskey
03-07-2004, 10:56 AM
Originally posted by cornball
The only locks for the HOF I see right now are:

Clemens, Bonds, Maddox, McGuire, Sosa, I-Rod, Jeter, A-Rod, and Henderson.

The voters for the HOF are a fickle group.

I dont see Jeter making it

oldcomiskey
03-07-2004, 10:58 AM
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Kittle
I think that Kenny Lofton may be more deserving. In his prime (early-mid/late '90s), he was the best leadoff hitter in the game, was stealing 60-70 bases/yr, and has a .300 career BA. Defensively, he was better than Bernie, IMO (though not by much).

Thers a guy named Rickey Henderson whod like to talk to you

A. Cavatica
03-07-2004, 12:04 PM
Originally posted by oldcomiskey
I dont see Jeter making it

Sure, he'll make it. He was a key guy on a Yankee dynasty. Most of the players in the HoF only got there because of Yankee affiliations, right? :smile:

I think that Jeter/A-Rod/Garciaparra will all be there, based on being the best shortstops in the game for a decade or more (when all is said and done).

cornball
03-07-2004, 12:52 PM
Jeter will make it for several reasons.

First, he is personable, which is a huge factor with the sports writers. Second, he is from the NY Yanks with huge influence and exposure. Third, he has performed well at the most demanding position. Fourth, he has played in the post season so much and been a big part of several World Championship teams.

ondafarm
03-07-2004, 01:03 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Defensive players just don't get the consideration for the HOF that their offensively oriented counterparts do and with good reason.

How long did Luis Apprecio wait for his call from the Hall?

How long did Nellie Fox wait for the HOF call?

ode to veeck
03-07-2004, 01:35 PM
both nellie and luis had to wait way too long

Paulwny
03-07-2004, 01:50 PM
As much as I hate all present and past yankmees, I must thank Berra and Ford. Their presence on the Old Timers Committee were a big factor in righting the injustice of Fox's late induction.

MarkEdward
03-07-2004, 08:32 PM
Originally posted by oldcomiskey
Not only did you miss some obvios ones but you missed some on YOUR list as well

No way Jeter gets in and youve got a lot of young players on there as well, anything can happen, injuries etc.
What makes Pudge Jr, a hall-of-famer or any of the Oakland pitchers or Delgado for that reason or Bernie or Posada--and griffey and Thomas have to have 500 Hrs and Martines has to have 3000 hits to get in

Jeter will make it on the grounds of his "clutch godliness." His postseason line is .314/.385/.469. Aside from this, he is a great hitting shortstop. In any other decade, he'd be considered the best-hitting SS of his generation, but he has to deal with Rodriguez, Tejada, and Garciaparra playing with him. It'll be interesting to see what happens with him and Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod should be playing short, but a move may hurt Jeter's chances at the Hall.

Ivan Rodriguez will definitely get in. He's arguably the best all-around catcher ever. Terrific defense, very good offensive player. He should make it easy.

Finally, I don't like using milestone numbers to determine a player's HOF chances. If Frank Thomas finishes his career with 499 home runs, should he be left out just because he didn't reach 500? Thomas was arguably the best hitter of the 90s, Griffey arguably the best player of the 90s. I think they're virtual locks.

Daver
03-07-2004, 08:53 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward


Ivan Rodriguez will definitely get in. He's arguably the best all-around catcher ever. Terrific defense, very good offensive player. He should make it easy.



Johnny Bench is laughing at this statement.

MarkEdward
03-08-2004, 02:09 AM
Originally posted by Daver
Johnny Bench is laughing at this statement.

Ah, that's why I included the word "arguably" in the post.

It'll be interesting to see how Rodriguez finishes up. Right now, he's 31. By age 31, Bench was done catching. Rodriguez should catch predominantly for the next few years, though he'll probably see some significant time at DH or one of the corner positions. Going by advanced defensive metrics, both catchers are pretty equal, Rodriguez a bit better. Bench is the better hitter, and I don't think I-Rod will get much better offensively.

In the end, I'd probably take Bench over Ivan. I'd take Mike Piazza over both of them, though.

ode to veeck
03-08-2004, 02:14 AM
I'm still a hard nosed Pudge fan