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MRKARNO
02-28-2004, 09:37 PM
Why are the White Sox going to be the 2004 AL Central division champions? Because they've got the best offense in the division, period.

Harris-Potentially an offensive liability. I could see him hitting .250-.260
Lee-Numbers similar to last years would be nice. .300-30-100 can be anticipated
Thomas-Depends on his approach. Could be .320-30-100+ or .270-45-100 or .270-30-100. I'd just like to see him draw a ton of walks
Ordonez-Does he return to 2002 form and hit .330-40-130? .300-30-100 should be expected as he hasnt really dipped below any of these since 98
Konerko-Critical question: Does he go back to .295-25-100 after a yearlong slump or is he done? That's the 16.75 million dollar question
Valentin-.250 AVG, but 25 Homers
Crede-It's his time to shine. He caught the spring flu last year, but .280-25-75 should be expected. Could move up all the way to 5 if Konerko is sucking and has .300-30-100 potential
Rowand-I'm pretty high on Aaron. He hit nearly .400 when healthy against MLB Pitching last year. .280-15 is easily within his abilities, but I'm hoping for .310-20
Olivo-.255 and 10 would seem about right, if he can learn to hit offspeed pitches maybe higher

OK, so I might be an eternal optimist, but I dont see how any of this could be out of line entirely, but obviously nothing ever works perfectly. The Red Sox were the best offense in baseball with inferior hitting talent last year, so clearly if the White Sox get things clicking like the Red Sox did, we could be in serious business, especially if our starting can get us quality starts a lot of the time; Buehrle, Loaiza and Garland need to give the offense a reasonable chance to win every game. If Garland pitches with the consistancy that he did during the middle portion of last year (about 18 games without giving up more than 4 runs) and schoenweis is halfway decent, we could run away with the division. Whether we have the talent to advance in the playoffs is another matter, but I think we can at least get there without too many problems

A. Cavatica
02-28-2004, 11:26 PM
You certainly are the eternal optimist. I feel like your evil twin.

I think your estimate for Harris is reasonable, but .260 from a leadoff hitter won't cut it. In fact, .260 + not many walks from a #9 hitter doesn't cut it. We need his on-base percentage to be better than league average (say, over .330) for him to be in the lineup, and considerably higher if he's going to lead off. And the problem is that we have no other candidates to lead off.

I don't see Rowand reaching .310/20. More likely: .285/15/60, lots of doubles, decent OBP. He won't be great, but at least he'll be better than Everett.

Frank's days of batting .300 are over. I predict .280/35/95, for which will be criticized unfairly. (His RBIs will be down because we have no leadoff hitter.)

Put Magglio down for .310/35/100, and Carlos down for .300/30/100.

I don't see Crede ever reaching .300/30/100. For that matter I don't foresee him ever reaching .300 or
30 or 100. But .270/15/80 is likely.

Konerko will run hot and cold, as usual, finishing around .270/25/75. I have a feeling Valentin's going to start losing playing time to Uribe, but the shortstop position will contribute .240/15/65. I figure Olivo will be around .250/10/50.

I still think Kenny will trade a bat before the end of spring training, and we're due for an injury or two this season, so I don't think this will end up being our actual lineup. Don't forget, we have no bench.

I think we'll get a little more from Buehrle and Garland, a little less from Loaiza, but the big reason we're going to lose 85 games is that we have only three starting pitchers. Schoeneweis will lose 10 games and his spot in the rotation before the all-star break. I envision a series of replacements with 6+ ERAs. And what if one of the big three gets injured? Yikes.

MRKARNO
02-29-2004, 12:40 AM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
[B]You certainly are the eternal optimist. I feel like your evil twin.

I think your estimate for Harris is reasonable, but .260 from a leadoff hitter won't cut it. In fact, .260 + not many walks from a #9 hitter doesn't cut it. We need his on-base percentage to be better than league average (say, over .330) for him to be in the lineup, and considerably higher if he's going to lead off. And the problem is that we have no other candidates to lead off.

We could always have Rowand lead off or if Jeremy Reed ever comes up this year, he could lead off. I'm hoping Harris is gonna surprise us and hit .280 because he's hit in the minors and in winter league. Here's hoping he can carry over prior success to the bigs.


I don't see Crede ever reaching .300/30/100. For that matter I don't foresee him ever reaching .300 or
30 or 100. But .270/15/80 is likely.

Wow, you must really hate Joe Crede. He hit .260-19-75 with a prolonged cold streak in april and may last year. Crede hit .308 with 11 homers in 234 ABs after the All star break. That translates to about 25 homers over the course of the season. And you can't forget 2002 when he hit 12 homers in a third of a season. He WILL put it together eventually and hit 30 over the course of a season. No reason he cant take the step up and hit .300 at the young age of 25. Maybe those 100 RBIs are a reach if he's batting 7th, but I see him batting 6th and racking up those RBIs.


Konerko will run hot and cold, as usual, finishing around .270/25/75. I have a feeling Valentin's going to start losing playing time to Uribe, but the shortstop position will contribute .240/15/65. I figure Olivo will be around .250/10/50.


I am a bit more optimistic on Konerko than you. Valentin has hit about 26 homers the past 4 years. I dont see how that could possibly drop off to 15 in one year. I essentially agree on Olivo, though I think he has a bit more power than that.

I guess it's inevitable that we're going to have disagreements but the pitching staff is better than you say. We should get a good amount of quality starts. A healthy Rauch would make a formidable 5th starter and dont forget that Schoenweis added a changeup, so that will help him.

No way this team finishes below .500. The pitching is passable at worst and pretty good at best. The offense is going to be great again. After that slow start the sox still managed to hit 220 round trippers. After 3 years of misfires, the Sox are ready to put a season together now that we have Ozzie on board and we will win this division

SoxFan76
02-29-2004, 12:42 AM
I love your optimism, and at the same time most everything stated is very possible. But Frank and Maggs RBI numbers will be down without a guy who can get on base.

MRKARNO
02-29-2004, 01:05 AM
Originally posted by SoxFan76
I love your optimism, and at the same time most everything stated is very possible. But Frank and Maggs RBI numbers will be down without a guy who can get on base.

Lee is going to get on base a good, but not spectacular amount of time.

Maggs will have Thomas on Base for him and honestly, I want to see Thomas work on OBP this year and get that back up to .400+ so that Maggs, Konerko and Crede have more opportunities to get RBIs

munchman33
02-29-2004, 01:19 AM
I'm with you Karno. I'd rather be positive about the talent we have than waiting for the negative.

stillz
02-29-2004, 02:13 AM
I also believe Crede is bound to drive in a lot of runs over the course of a season. He's such a natural hitter, and his numbers are exciting.. Same with Rowand. He was truly great in the minors and just needs a chance to play a full year. Harris was solid before he got called up last year - but without the consisent play after Alomar came in, he never got to shine. I think as Willie goes, so will go their lineup.

Carlos Lee is not as fast as he seems.

Lip Man 1
02-29-2004, 02:59 AM
I have no doubt that the Sox will contend in this division, frankly considering how mediocre it is, if you have two pitchers who have a good year and three or four hitters doing well you certainly should.

Unless injuries hit the Sox considering the caliber of the opponents in it there is no reason for them NOT to. If they don't things are worse then we can possibly imagine.

Lip

hose
02-29-2004, 08:07 AM
I'm optimistic that the Sox will win their division.

Harris and Rowand will do just fine.

I hope that Olivo can adjust to the off speed stuff because he wont be seeing that many fastballs.

gosox41
02-29-2004, 08:26 AM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Why are the White Sox going to be the 2004 AL Central division champions? Because they've got the best offense in the division, period.

Harris-Potentially an offensive liability. I could see him hitting .250-.260
Lee-Numbers similar to last years would be nice. .300-30-100 can be anticipated
Thomas-Depends on his approach. Could be .320-30-100+ or .270-45-100 or .270-30-100. I'd just like to see him draw a ton of walks
Ordonez-Does he return to 2002 form and hit .330-40-130? .300-30-100 should be expected as he hasnt really dipped below any of these since 98
Konerko-Critical question: Does he go back to .295-25-100 after a yearlong slump or is he done? That's the 16.75 million dollar question
Valentin-.250 AVG, but 25 Homers
Crede-It's his time to shine. He caught the spring flu last year, but .280-25-75 should be expected. Could move up all the way to 5 if Konerko is sucking and has .300-30-100 potential
Rowand-I'm pretty high on Aaron. He hit nearly .400 when healthy against MLB Pitching last year. .280-15 is easily within his abilities, but I'm hoping for .310-20
Olivo-.255 and 10 would seem about right, if he can learn to hit offspeed pitches maybe higher

OK, so I might be an eternal optimist, but I dont see how any of this could be out of line entirely, but obviously nothing ever works perfectly. The Red Sox were the best offense in baseball with inferior hitting talent last year, so clearly if the White Sox get things clicking like the Red Sox did, we could be in serious business, especially if our starting can get us quality starts a lot of the time; Buehrle, Loaiza and Garland need to give the offense a reasonable chance to win every game. If Garland pitches with the consistancy that he did during the middle portion of last year (about 18 games without giving up more than 4 runs) and schoenweis is halfway decent, we could run away with the division. Whether we have the talent to advance in the playoffs is another matter, but I think we can at least get there without too many problems

You're much more optimistic then me. The way I see it, the SOx have 3 hitters I can rely on in this line up consistently: Thomas, Ordonez and Lee. I expect big things out of Ordonez because it's his free agent year and he is playing for a contract.

Konerko is a huge question, and I don't even believe he has a hip injury. I have more faith in Rowand then most do, but he is far from great. Harris reminds me of Caruso without the ability to lay down a bunt. I can see Crede hitting .280 with 25 HR's. Valentin will be luck to hit about .250.

This line up makes me nervous. 3 power hitters on the team, and 2 of them have the highest OBP. This year will at least prove why RBI's is a meaningless statistic because there won't be many on base for Frank and Magglio.

I do expect an increase in the griping of how many solo shots the two of them hit and futhermore I can see a lot of debates on the value of clutch hitting.

Bob

gosox41
02-29-2004, 08:29 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
I have no doubt that the Sox will contend in this division, frankly considering how mediocre it is, if you have two pitchers who have a good year and three or four hitters doing well you certainly should.

Unless injuries hit the Sox considering the caliber of the opponents in it there is no reason for them NOT to. If they don't things are worse then we can possibly imagine.

Lip

This is as close to a positive statement that I've seen Lip make.

I see the Sox contending for the division to, if the divsion winner is going to have less then 80 wins or if most of the question marks step it up.

Bob

MRKARNO
02-29-2004, 09:36 AM
Originally posted by gosox41
This is as close to a positive statement that I've seen Lip make.

I see the Sox contending for the division to, if the divsion winner is going to have less then 80 wins or if most of the question marks step it up.

Bob

I still think that the eventual division winner, which I think will be the White Sox, will have at least 90 wins.

Lip Man 1
02-29-2004, 02:12 PM
85 will do it and whichever team wins it will suffer a ton of critiscism from the national media along the lines of 'you've got the Yankees with 115, Red Sox with 110 wins, the A's with 93 and the Mariners with 92, Angels with 96 wins and these midgits are in the post season?' (of course that's right before the midgits get hammered back into baseball oblivion by the real major league teams...)

Lip

ondafarm
02-29-2004, 02:26 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Harris-Potentially an offensive liability. I could see him hitting .250-.260

I have seen Harris bunt and with a manager who appreciates that and a coach who will work with him on it I don't see any reason at all why Harris won't be hitting .300 and .350 OBP. He has all the tools to do that. Cora knows the rule on drag bunting, if you can get the 2nd baseman to play on it, you are on.

CubKilla
02-29-2004, 02:34 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
85 will do it and whichever team wins it will suffer a ton of critiscism from the national media along the lines of 'you've got the Yankees with 115, Red Sox with 110 wins, the A's with 93 and the Mariners with 92, Angels with 96 wins and these midgits are in the post season?' (of course that's right before the midgits get hammered back into baseball oblivion by the real major league teams...)

Lip

Right on. I'm not exactly looking forward to winning a Division then getting smacked around like a red-headed stepchild in the ALDS.

Of course, if this team is in contention come June and JR allows KW to make some moves so that the White Sox appear like a team that could contend w/the Yanks, Red Sox, Mariners, A's, Anaheim, and the like, I might think differently come October.

SoxFan76
02-29-2004, 02:41 PM
I'll predict the question marks on this team

Olivo - .265 20 75 - That is more than enough to ask for from a catcher
Crede - .275 25 80 - Very decent numbers, his defense makes up for any lack of offense
Rowand - .290 25 80 - I expect big things out of him offensively. Maybe Carlos Lee 2004, with less RBI's.
Harris - .330 OBP 10 50 - I don't know how many RBI's leadoff guys get

Lip Man 1
02-29-2004, 07:37 PM
There is very little chance of both Olivo and Rowand hitting 20 home runs EACH and driving in at least 75 RBI's. Now together maybe.

LOL, those 'projections' must be out of some sort of rigged fanatsy league where the Sox win 103 games!

Lip

MRKARNO
02-29-2004, 07:42 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
There is very little chance of both Olivo and Rowand hitting 20 home runs EACH and driving in at least 75 RBI's. Now together maybe.

LOL, those 'projections' must be out of some sort of rigged fanatsy league where the Sox win 103 games!

Lip

I could easily see Rowand hitting 20, but even as optimistic as I am, I do not see Olivo hitting more than 12 or 13, unless he suddenly learned how to hit an offspeed pitch.

Rowand I think is going to have a breakoutseason because if you look at his 2nd half numbers last year, you will find them to be amazing. The only reason his numbers were so low overall was because of the pre-spring training accident. He was really committed this offseason to getting in shape and I think he will be really good this year. He hit 3 homers in only 46 post all star at bats which translates to 33 homers over the course of a full season, but we dont know if his second half was luck or skill, but we will find out when he is given the full time job this year. Olivo will be a defensive plus but an offensive liability, but I dont see Olivo as being a huge part of the White Sox success or failures either way, except in throwing out baserunners.

doublem23
02-29-2004, 07:47 PM
There's no way Aaron's going to hit 20 home runs... Unless you're his "pharmacist" and you've been giving him "Flintsone's Chewable Vitamins."

Concerning Aaron, I'd be happy with .270/10/55. Olivo's not a big power guy either. He could get the average up nicely, but a .260/10/45 season from him wouldn't be too bad.

MRKARNO
02-29-2004, 07:57 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
There's no way Aaron's going to hit 20 home runs... Unless you're his "pharmacist" and you've been giving him "Flintsone's Chewable Vitamins."


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=6742

Hitting, Baserunning & Defense
Rowand is an aggressive hitter who appears to be becoming less patient at the plate. He is a line-drive hitter but can generate power from his strong upper body . Rowand stole bases in the minor leagues but didn't attempt a steal last year. He doesn't look like a prototype center fielder but gets the most out of his ability.

Sounds to me a lot like Vernon Wells, who managed to hit 33 homers last year. I'm not saying that Rowand is going to be as good as Vernon Wells, though it would be awesome if he was, but a hitter in the mold of Wells who could hit at least 20 homers. And Rowand has been working on his conditioning with Frank Thomas this offseson in Las Vegas, which could lead to more power this year.

Man Soo Lee
03-01-2004, 02:18 AM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Rowand I think is going to have a breakoutseason because if you look at his 2nd half numbers last year, you will find them to be amazing. The only reason his numbers were so low overall was because of the pre-spring training accident. He was really committed this offseason to getting in shape and I think he will be really good this year. He hit 3 homers in only 46 post all star at bats which translates to 33 homers over the course of a full season, but we dont know if his second half was luck or skill, but we will find out when he is given the full time job this year.

46 at bats is not a very large sample size. Also, a disproportionate number of those ABs came against left-handers because Everett always started against righties.

In 2002 when Rowand had the most playing time of his career, he hit 7 HRs in 302 ABs. That's one every 43 ABs. The rate was the same over the final two months when he was the everyday CF.

Originally posted by MRKARNO
Sounds to me a lot like Vernon Wells, who managed to hit 33 homers last year. I'm not saying that Rowand is going to be as good as Vernon Wells, though it would be awesome if he was, but a hitter in the mold of Wells who could hit at least 20 homers.

If I thought Rowand had anything in common with Vernon Wells, I might think the Sox could win 91 games too.

maurice
03-01-2004, 01:00 PM
Nice thread, MRKARNO. The Sox should be able to score enough runs to win the division, but I noticed that you didn't address the pitching staff. :o:

Rowand certainly has the potential to hit 20 HR, if he gets enough ABs. He has 17 HR in only 582 career major-league ABs and showed 20+ HR power throughout his minor-league career.

The question about his offensive game is whether he'll continue to hit for average (which he needs to do to keep his job, since he doesn't walk often enough to post a decent OBP with a low average).

A. Cavatica
01-14-2005, 09:30 PM
Just remembered to look up my preseason predictions from last year. How'd I do?

I think your estimate for Harris is reasonable, but .260 from a leadoff hitter won't cut it. In fact, .260 + not many walks from a #9 hitter doesn't cut it. We need his on-base percentage to be better than league average (say, over .330) for him to be in the lineup, and considerably higher if he's going to lead off. And the problem is that we have no other candidates to lead off.
Harris in fact batted .262 with a .343 OBP, which was a bit over .330, but with less power than SoxFan76 predicted. On balance a good prediction.
:smile:


I don't see Rowand reaching .310/20. More likely: .285/15/60, lots of doubles, decent OBP. He won't be great, but at least he'll be better than Everett.
Well, MRKARNO nailed this. I was far too conservative. Rowand hit .310/24.
:o:


Frank's days of batting .300 are over. I predict .280/35/95, for which will be criticized unfairly. (His RBIs will be down because we have no leadoff hitter.)
.271/18/49 in less than half a season. If he hadn't gotten hurt I would've been pretty damn close.
:smile:


Put Magglio down for .310/35/100, and Carlos down for .300/30/100.
Magglio: potential career-ending injury explains the low production.

Lee: .305/31/99. Right on the button!
:D:


I don't see Crede ever reaching .300/30/100. For that matter I don't foresee him ever reaching .300 or 30 or 100. But .270/15/80 is likely.
.239/21/69. I expected steadier production but got solo home runs instead.
I still don't see Crede ever reaching .300 or 30 or 100.


Konerko will run hot and cold, as usual, finishing around .270/25/75. I have a feeling Valentin's going to start losing playing time to Uribe, but the shortstop position will contribute .240/15/65. I figure Olivo will be around .250/10/50.
Wow, .277/41/117 from Konerko. The cold streak never materialized.
:redface:

Shortstops: Is there a source online for numbers by position? I don't really know what the shortstop totals were. Valentin did lose some playing time and hit .216/30/70; Uribe hit .283/23/74. I probably was close on the batting average, but way low on the power numbers.

Olivo: .270/7/26 for us, .233/13/40 overall. Not too far off.


I still think Kenny will trade a bat before the end of spring training, and we're due for an injury or two this season, so I don't think this will end up being our actual lineup. Don't forget, we have no bench.
I don't think we got that bat, but we were certainly crushed by injuries, and our bench wasn't very good.
:mad:


I think we'll get a little more from Buehrle and Garland, a little less from Loaiza, but the big reason we're going to lose 85 games is that we have only three starting pitchers. Schoeneweis will lose 10 games and his spot in the rotation before the all-star break. I envision a series of replacements with 6+ ERAs. And what if one of the big three gets injured? Yikes.Buehrle: Posted an 0.25 lower ERA, pitched 15 more innings, won two more games. Right on target.

Garland: Pretty much the same as 2003. (0.38 higher ERA, pitched 25 more innings, won the same number of games.)

Loaiza: Fell off dramatically. I missed.
:(:

Schoeneweis: 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA and lost his spot in the rotation before the all-star break. Right on target.
:mad:

Replacements: We were longing for a 6 ERA by the end of the season...a good prediction but a lousy result.
:angry:

gosox41
01-15-2005, 11:21 AM
You're much more optimistic then me. The way I see it, the SOx have 3 hitters I can rely on in this line up consistently: Thomas, Ordonez and Lee. I expect big things out of Ordonez because it's his free agent year and he is playing for a contract.

Konerko is a huge question, and I don't even believe he has a hip injury. I have more faith in Rowand then most do, but he is far from great. Harris reminds me of Caruso without the ability to lay down a bunt. I can see Crede hitting .280 with 25 HR's. Valentin will be luck to hit about .250.

This line up makes me nervous. 3 power hitters on the team, and 2 of them have the highest OBP. This year will at least prove why RBI's is a meaningless statistic because there won't be many on base for Frank and Magglio.

I do expect an increase in the griping of how many solo shots the two of them hit and futhermore I can see a lot of debates on the value of clutch hitting.

Bob

I was somwhat accurate on my predicitions, though dead wrong on Crede. Same with PK as he came back nicely. Valentin didn't come close to .250. And there was a lot of griping about solo shots just not about Magglio and Frank specifically.


Bob