MRKARNO
02-28-2004, 01:34 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=33
Bill Lipton (New Canaan, CT): Who has the greater, long-term upside: Delmon Young, Alexis Rios, or Jeremy Reed? Is there a comparable MLB player for each?
Rany Jazayerli: You can't answer that question without defining "upside". If "upside" is defined as the player's career value if everything breaks right - call it his 90th percentile PECOTA score for his career - then I would answer Delmon Young, simply because he's so much younger than the other two players that no limits have really been placed on what he's capable of.
But in terms of EXPECTED career value - call it the 50th percentile PECOTA - then Jeremy Reed is the one I'd choose. He probably has a 50-50 chance of finishing with 2000 hits in his career.
Brian Rudd (Lexington, KY): I think Carlos Zambrano is going to break down in a big way this year due to his heavy workload. Just wondering your thoughts on that, and, who do you see being the prime candidates to breakdown this year due to abuse?
Rany Jazayerli: Brian Rudd (Lexington, KY): I think Carlos Zambrano is going to break down in a big way this year due to his heavy workload. Just wondering your thoughts on that, and, who do you see being the prime candidates to breakdown this year due to abuse?
Rany Jazayerli: Zambrano certainly tops my list of pitcher injuries waiting to happen, and is the reason why I *don't* think the Greg Maddux signing was an unnecessary luxury for the Cubs.
There really aren't that many other pitchers whose workloads screams "injury risk". The reduction in pitch counts for starting pitchers over the last five years is nothing short of stunning, in my opinion.
I should take this moment to point out that Roy Halladay, who led all of baseball with 266 innings, is about as sure a bet to stay healthy as any starter in the game. Like Greg Maddux a decade ago, he's so efficient with his pitches that he can throw 270-280 innings a year with no problem.
There really aren't that many other pitchers whose workloads screams "injury risk". The reduction in pitch counts for starting pitchers over the last five years is nothing short of stunning, in my opinion.
I should take this moment to point out that Roy Halladay, who led all of baseball with 266 innings, is about as sure a bet to stay healthy as any starter in the game. Like Greg Maddux a decade ago, he's so efficient with his pitches that he can throw 270-280 innings a year with no problem.
Bill Lipton (New Canaan, CT): Who has the greater, long-term upside: Delmon Young, Alexis Rios, or Jeremy Reed? Is there a comparable MLB player for each?
Rany Jazayerli: You can't answer that question without defining "upside". If "upside" is defined as the player's career value if everything breaks right - call it his 90th percentile PECOTA score for his career - then I would answer Delmon Young, simply because he's so much younger than the other two players that no limits have really been placed on what he's capable of.
But in terms of EXPECTED career value - call it the 50th percentile PECOTA - then Jeremy Reed is the one I'd choose. He probably has a 50-50 chance of finishing with 2000 hits in his career.
Brian Rudd (Lexington, KY): I think Carlos Zambrano is going to break down in a big way this year due to his heavy workload. Just wondering your thoughts on that, and, who do you see being the prime candidates to breakdown this year due to abuse?
Rany Jazayerli: Brian Rudd (Lexington, KY): I think Carlos Zambrano is going to break down in a big way this year due to his heavy workload. Just wondering your thoughts on that, and, who do you see being the prime candidates to breakdown this year due to abuse?
Rany Jazayerli: Zambrano certainly tops my list of pitcher injuries waiting to happen, and is the reason why I *don't* think the Greg Maddux signing was an unnecessary luxury for the Cubs.
There really aren't that many other pitchers whose workloads screams "injury risk". The reduction in pitch counts for starting pitchers over the last five years is nothing short of stunning, in my opinion.
I should take this moment to point out that Roy Halladay, who led all of baseball with 266 innings, is about as sure a bet to stay healthy as any starter in the game. Like Greg Maddux a decade ago, he's so efficient with his pitches that he can throw 270-280 innings a year with no problem.
There really aren't that many other pitchers whose workloads screams "injury risk". The reduction in pitch counts for starting pitchers over the last five years is nothing short of stunning, in my opinion.
I should take this moment to point out that Roy Halladay, who led all of baseball with 266 innings, is about as sure a bet to stay healthy as any starter in the game. Like Greg Maddux a decade ago, he's so efficient with his pitches that he can throw 270-280 innings a year with no problem.