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View Full Version : BP co-author Rany Jazayerli on Reed and Zambrano


MRKARNO
02-28-2004, 01:34 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=33

Bill Lipton (New Canaan, CT): Who has the greater, long-term upside: Delmon Young, Alexis Rios, or Jeremy Reed? Is there a comparable MLB player for each?

Rany Jazayerli: You can't answer that question without defining "upside". If "upside" is defined as the player's career value if everything breaks right - call it his 90th percentile PECOTA score for his career - then I would answer Delmon Young, simply because he's so much younger than the other two players that no limits have really been placed on what he's capable of.

But in terms of EXPECTED career value - call it the 50th percentile PECOTA - then Jeremy Reed is the one I'd choose. He probably has a 50-50 chance of finishing with 2000 hits in his career.


Brian Rudd (Lexington, KY): I think Carlos Zambrano is going to break down in a big way this year due to his heavy workload. Just wondering your thoughts on that, and, who do you see being the prime candidates to breakdown this year due to abuse?

Rany Jazayerli: Brian Rudd (Lexington, KY): I think Carlos Zambrano is going to break down in a big way this year due to his heavy workload. Just wondering your thoughts on that, and, who do you see being the prime candidates to breakdown this year due to abuse?

Rany Jazayerli: Zambrano certainly tops my list of pitcher injuries waiting to happen, and is the reason why I *don't* think the Greg Maddux signing was an unnecessary luxury for the Cubs.

There really aren't that many other pitchers whose workloads screams "injury risk". The reduction in pitch counts for starting pitchers over the last five years is nothing short of stunning, in my opinion.

I should take this moment to point out that Roy Halladay, who led all of baseball with 266 innings, is about as sure a bet to stay healthy as any starter in the game. Like Greg Maddux a decade ago, he's so efficient with his pitches that he can throw 270-280 innings a year with no problem.


There really aren't that many other pitchers whose workloads screams "injury risk". The reduction in pitch counts for starting pitchers over the last five years is nothing short of stunning, in my opinion.

I should take this moment to point out that Roy Halladay, who led all of baseball with 266 innings, is about as sure a bet to stay healthy as any starter in the game. Like Greg Maddux a decade ago, he's so efficient with his pitches that he can throw 270-280 innings a year with no problem.

kermittheefrog
02-28-2004, 02:34 PM
Jeremy Reed is an extremely exciting player. I'd like to see the Sox trade Carlos Lee and give Reed a shot in left.

SEALgep
02-28-2004, 04:50 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Jeremy Reed is an extremely exciting player. I'd like to see the Sox trade Carlos Lee and give Reed a shot in left. Carlos is starting to become a very good player. He has the ability to even exceed Maggs, even though that may seem to be a stretch to some. His ceiling is high, and he is younger and cheaper as well. I wouldn't want to trade him. Not when he's locked up for the next three years, and people are predicting him to be an MVP canididate as soon as this year. We shall see, but too early to send him packing for Reed. Besides, if we trade Lee now and Maggs walks, we will be in a pickle. See what Maggs does before we commit to anything rash.

doublem23
02-28-2004, 04:52 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
Carlos is starting to become a very good player. He has the ability to even exceed Maggs, even though that may seem to be a stretch to some. His ceiling is high, and he is younger and cheaper as well. I wouldn't want to trade him. Not when he's locked up for the next three years, and people are predicting him to be an MVP canididate as soon as this year. We shall see, but too early to send him packing for Reed. Besides, if we trade Lee now and Maggs walks, we will be in a pickle. See what Maggs does before we commit to anything rash.

I'd like to see Carlos maintain his level when not batting in front of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez. Anybody could hit in front of those two.

MRKARNO
02-28-2004, 05:13 PM
Carlos hit .278 with 6 homers in the 5 spot in 205 ABS (.753 OPS)
He hit .260 with 10 HRs in the 6 spot in 146 ABs (.808 OPS)
Carlos Hit .320 with 14 HRs in 253 ABs in front of Thomas. (.906 OPS)

If Carlos puts up even bigger numbers in the 2 hole next year then Frank Thomas should be MVP before Carlos because Frank is making Carlos more valuable than he is alone.

fquaye149
02-28-2004, 06:29 PM
^^^^^none of this is false...but jose put up some lousy numbers in the 2 hole last year, so let's give arlos a little bit of credit


(2 hole...tee hee)

kermittheefrog
02-28-2004, 06:41 PM
Carlos is likely as good as he's going to get, most players don't improve much beyond their late 20's. Right now we're seeing Carlos at his peak and contrary to most people's belief he had a big drop-off from 2002 to 2003. You can get tied up in his triple crown numbers from 2003 but 2002 was the only year Carlos has had a good on base percentage and he did it while putting up his second best career slugging percentage.

Daver
02-28-2004, 06:45 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
Carlos is likely as good as he's going to get, most players don't improve much beyond their late 20's. Right now we're seeing Carlos at his peak and contrary to most people's belief he had a big drop-off from 2002 to 2003. You can get tied up in his triple crown numbers from 2003 but 2002 was the only year Carlos has had a good on base percentage and he did it while putting up his second best career slugging percentage.

Hey Kermit is back,I was beginning to think he was abducted by Amish furniture makers.


:)

kermittheefrog
02-28-2004, 06:49 PM
Originally posted by Daver
Hey Kermit is back,I was beginning to think he was abducted by Amish furniture makers.


:)

I took the offseason off to develop some new statistics :D:

gosox41
02-29-2004, 07:49 AM
Originally posted by SEALgep
Carlos is starting to become a very good player. He has the ability to even exceed Maggs, even though that may seem to be a stretch to some. His ceiling is high, and he is younger and cheaper as well. I wouldn't want to trade him. Not when he's locked up for the next three years, and people are predicting him to be an MVP canididate as soon as this year. We shall see, but too early to send him packing for Reed. Besides, if we trade Lee now and Maggs walks, we will be in a pickle. See what Maggs does before we commit to anything rash.

Carlos Lee is a perfect example of a player you should 'sell high'and trade now. He actually had a worse 2003 then 2002. Hitting in fornt of Frank makes anyone better.

I'll go on record right now as saying the Sox should trade Lee for some pitching.

Bob

kermittheefrog
02-29-2004, 02:02 PM
Originally posted by gosox41
Carlos Lee is a perfect example of a player you should 'sell high'and trade now. He actually had a worse 2003 then 2002. Hitting in fornt of Frank makes anyone better.


Didn't seem to make Roberto Alomar better.

DSpivack
02-29-2004, 03:48 PM
This issue has been brought up before, but if Rowand doesn't work out, can Reed play CF?

Daver
02-29-2004, 04:04 PM
Originally posted by DSpivack
This issue has been brought up before, but if Rowand doesn't work out, can Reed play CF?

He'd be better defensively than Rowand right now.

Reed would be best used as a left fielder.

Rex Hudler
02-29-2004, 05:15 PM
Originally posted by Daver
He'd be better defensively than Rowand right now.

Reed would be best used as a left fielder.

Reed was awfully good patrolling a large CF for Birmingham. He made no errors, had five assists and made numerous diving catches coming in on balls. I don't recall him getting burned on balls over his head either.