PDA

View Full Version : BP ranks all MLB rotations


jeremyb1
02-23-2004, 03:05 PM
An article over at Baseball Prospectus today ranks every rotation from 1 through 30 by totaling the projected VORP (value over replacement player) of the five projected members of each rotation. The Red Sox were first followed by the Cubs, Yankees, and As. As far as the central goes, it has the Twins at 9, White Sox at 12, Royals at 17, Indians at 24, and Tigers at 30.

cheeses_h_rice
02-23-2004, 03:16 PM
Who do they project for the Sox 5?

Burly
Loaiza
Wright
Garland
Schoeneweis

?

Frater Perdurabo
02-23-2004, 03:18 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
An article over at Baseball Prospectus today ranks every rotation from 1 through 30 by totaling the projected VORP (value over replacement player) of the five projected members of each rotation. The Red Sox were first followed by the Cubs, Yankees, and As. As far as the central goes, it has the Twins at 9, White Sox at 12, Royals at 17, Indians at 24, and Tigers at 30.

WOW. The Sox at #12, even with their question marks. Putting payroll dollars aside for the moment, imagine if they had re-signed Colon, or signed Ponson, or pulled off the Konerko for Perez deal with LA, or a combination of any of those. Or, even worse, imagine if they still had Kip Wells at #3 and Garland at #4, with only #5 as a question mark. :angry:

jeremyb1
02-23-2004, 03:34 PM
Originally posted by cheeses_h_rice
Who do they project for the Sox 5?

Burly
Loaiza
Wright
Garland
Schoeneweis

?

They don't specify exactly which pitchers comprised each team's list. They simply stated that in the even that they had to project starters for a team it ussually didn't make a huge difference.

I'm guessing they went with:

Loaiza
Buehrle
Garland
Shoeneweis
Rauch, Cotts, or Diaz

The difference between Rauch, Cotts, or Diaz is only a few points on the VORP scale and therefore wouldn't alter our ranking.

poorme
02-23-2004, 04:21 PM
That has to based on the assumption Loaiza repeats what he did last year, which is very doubtful.

hose
02-23-2004, 04:28 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
An article over at Baseball Prospectus today ranks every rotation from 1 through 30 by totaling the projected VORP (value over replacement player) of the five projected members of each rotation. The Red Sox were first followed by the Cubs, Yankees, and As. As far as the central goes, it has the Twins at 9, White Sox at 12, Royals at 17, Indians at 24, and Tigers at 30.


I would rank the Sox as best in the Central if you include the bull pen.

longshot7
02-23-2004, 04:40 PM
No way the Yanks have a better pitching staff than the Angels - for my money, the 2nd best in the AL.

I couldn't find this story on their site - any links?

jeremyb1
02-23-2004, 04:43 PM
Originally posted by poorme
That has to based on the assumption Loaiza repeats what he did last year, which is very doubtful.

Well I think they considered the likelihood of that in their predictions. Loaiza is projected to produce a 3.9 ERA next season which comes nowhere close to repeating what he accomplished last season but rates him as one of the top ten pitchers in baseball when considering projecting him to make 30+ starts, pitching in the AL, and park effects. BP did some pretty extensive studies on pitchers that had phenominal seasons late in their careers and history shows that with good walk and strikeout rates (Loaiza's were phenominal last season) the pitchers performance was well earned and therefore the pitcher's success is likely to continue into next season.

hold2dibber
02-23-2004, 04:57 PM
Originally posted by longshot7
No way the Yanks have a better pitching staff than the Angels - for my money, the 2nd best in the AL.

Are you serious? The Angels have a decent rotation, but nowhere near the Yankees.

Yankees:

Mussina
Vazquez
Brown
Contreras
Lieber

Angels:

Colon
Escobar
Washburn
Ortiz
Lackey

Escobar, Washburn and Ortiz would be 5th starters on the Yankees. Colon would be the 3rd or 4th starter on the Yankees. It's not even close; Yankees by a land slide.

MRKARNO
02-23-2004, 05:14 PM
No way the Twins have a better rotation than us.

StepsInSC
02-23-2004, 05:46 PM
Originally posted by Frater Perdurabo
WOW. The Sox at #12, even with their question marks. Putting payroll dollars aside for the moment, imagine if they had re-signed Colon, or signed Ponson, or pulled off the Konerko for Perez deal with LA, or a combination of any of those. Or, even worse, imagine if they still had Kip Wells at #3 and Garland at #4, with only #5 as a question mark. :angry:

Fogg.

ChiSox7
02-23-2004, 05:53 PM
Originally posted by longshot7
No way the Yanks have a better pitching staff than the Angels - for my money, the 2nd best in the AL.

I couldn't find this story on their site - any links?

I don't think that Colon is all that great, so as to compare him with Vazquez and Brown. He was pretty much a .500 pitcher last year. He DOES, however, eat up alot of innings, but that is why he is worth so much. But I dont think he's as good as the Yanks top guys.

MRKARNO
02-23-2004, 05:57 PM
Originally posted by ChiSox7
I don't think that Colon is all that great, so as to compare him with Vazquez and Brown. He was pretty much a .500 pitcher last year. He DOES, however, eat up alot of innings, but that is why he is worth so much. But I dont think he's as good as the Yanks top guys.

Give me Colon over Brown if only for the durability and dependability

jeremyb1
02-23-2004, 08:04 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
No way the Twins have a better rotation than us.

PECOTA breaks it down like this:

White Sox
Loaiza 40.4
Buehrle 28.6
Garland 15.9
Schoeneweis 10.1
Diaz 7.6 (They apparently went with Diaz who PECOTA likes best of the fifth starter candidates since when I added up these five guys the total was exactly the same as BP had)

Total 102.6

Twins
Santana 30.5
Lohse 27.9
Radke 27.7
Balfour 19.5
Silva 8.4

Total 114.0

The article obviously wasn't completely accurate when stating that the difference in the team's fifth starter didn't alter the results that much since if you plug in Helling instead of Balfour the Twins' total jumpps down 7 points and we're practically equal.

MRKARNO
02-23-2004, 08:15 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
PECOTA breaks it down like this:

White Sox
Loaiza 40.4
Buehrle 28.6
Garland 15.9
Schoeneweis 10.1
Diaz 7.6 (They apparently went with Diaz who PECOTA likes best of the fifth starter candidates since when I added up these five guys the total was exactly the same as BP had)

Total 102.6

Twins
Santana 30.5
Lohse 27.9
Radke 27.7
Balfour 19.5
Silva 8.4

Total 114.0

The article obviously wasn't completely accurate when stating that the difference in the team's fifth starter didn't alter the results that much since if you plug in Helling instead of Balfour the Twins' total jumpps down 7 points and we're practically equal.

I respect their opinion, but I dont see how both Lohse and Radke are going to pitch as well as Mark Buehrle and Balfour significantly better than Garland. Maybe they see something that I dont in Lohse and Radke, but I think they're wrong here.

Brian26
02-23-2004, 08:34 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
Are you serious? The Angels have a decent rotation, but nowhere near the Yankees.

The Angels are right there with Yankees, and don't forget the Angels have a hell of a bullpen too.

The Sporting News ranks the Angles starting rotation and bullpen higher than the Yankees. They also pencil in Aaron Sele as the Angels #5 starter, which may not happen w/ his injuries. The Angels bullpen with Percival backed up by Brendan Donnelly, Ben Weber, and Rodriguez is pretty solid.

doublem23
02-23-2004, 08:35 PM
Originally posted by StepsInSC
Fogg.

Sucks.

jeremyb1
02-23-2004, 08:35 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
I respect their opinion, but I dont see how both Lohse and Radke are going to pitch as well as Mark Buehrle and Balfour significantly better than Garland. Maybe they see something that I dont in Lohse and Radke, but I think they're wrong here.

Yeah. Personally I think its more likely that Garland and Buehrle will exceed expecations than it is that Lohse and Radke are rated too highly. Buehrle's VORP was 55 in '01 and 47 in '02 so he's projected for a huge dropoff.

longshot7
02-24-2004, 01:54 AM
Originally posted by Brian26
The Angels are right there with Yankees, and don't forget the Angels have a hell of a bullpen too.

The Sporting News ranks the Angels starting rotation and bullpen higher than the Yankees. They also pencil in Aaron Sele as the Angels #5 starter, which may not happen w/ his injuries. The Angels bullpen with Percival backed up by Brendan Donnelly, Ben Weber, and Rodriguez is pretty solid.

Not to mention that not only are Vasquez & Brown coming over from the NL (and should experience some growing pains) - Brown is hurt ALL THE TIME. Contreras is still learning, & Lieber is a complete wildcard.

Washburn won 18 games in 2002 - look for a bounce back season. Ortiz & Lackey should definitely win more than the Yanks 4 & 5. And Angels definitely have a better bullpen, minus Rivera.

Brian26
02-24-2004, 11:41 AM
Originally posted by doublem23
Sucks.

I really like Kip Wells, but that Pittsburgh offense is going to be absolutely brutal this year. Wells may struggle to get 12 wins.

jeremyb1
02-24-2004, 01:38 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Yeah. Personally I think its more likely that Garland and Buehrle will exceed expecations than it is that Lohse and Radke are rated too highly. Buehrle's VORP was 55 in '01 and 47 in '02 so he's projected for a huge dropoff.

I didn't really get to finish my thoughts here before. Like I said, I feel as though its more dissapointing seasons predicted for Buehrle and Garland than huge seasons from Lohse and Radke. Lohse is still young and has posted pretty good numbers the past two seasons so it makes sense for him to continue to improve and pitch well this season. The question is more why PECOTA sees regression from Garland. The answer would seem to be that while Lohse had a stellar 130/45 K/BB rate last season, a big improvement from the season before, Garland was a mediocre at best 108/74. One thing to note however was that his BG/FB rate improved substantially from the season before which should be important for Garland.

The answer for Buehrle is similar. PECOTA sees fading K and BB rates and therefore expects Buerhle's production to fall off the next few seasons. However, having followed the team closely to me last season and having familiarity with Buehrle personally, it seems to me as though he simply caught a huge streak of bad luck in the first half and struggled with facing adversity for the first time in his career before righting himself. In the second half he had nice 53/20 K/BB rate compared to just 66/41 before the break. If Buehrle's VORP is around 40 instead of 20, we'll pick up a lot of ground.

hold2dibber
02-25-2004, 08:04 AM
Originally posted by longshot7
Not to mention that not only are Vasquez & Brown coming over from the NL (and should experience some growing pains) - Brown is hurt ALL THE TIME. Contreras is still learning, & Lieber is a complete wildcard.

Washburn won 18 games in 2002 - look for a bounce back season. Ortiz & Lackey should definitely win more than the Yanks 4 & 5. And Angels definitely have a better bullpen, minus Rivera.

Mussina is better than Colon. Vazquez is way better than Escobar. Brown is way better than Washburn. I'd take Contreras in a heart beat over Lackey or Ortiz, both of whom had ERAs over 5.00 last year (I believe). Lieber is a wild card, I agree, but I think the Yankees have huge advantages at the 1-4 spots in the rotation.