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Dadawg_77
02-23-2004, 09:40 AM
They are listing their top prospects in Baseball this week.


Jeremy Reed
Age 23
5-Year EqAs: .278, .285, .288, .294, .293
5-Year WARP: 1.4, 1.6, 1.9, 2.1, 2.1


Noteworthy Comparables: Tony Gwynn, Terry Francona, Don Mattingly

PECOTA thinks he's the best outfield prospect in baseball. The dude hit .400 for a couple of months, and he does everything you'd expect to suggest that the batting average is for real, since he runs well and rarely strikes out. He's not a huge power guy, but his secondary average should be good enough to make him a real asset, even at a corner position. I think he's top-five material, perhaps top three.

mantis1212
02-23-2004, 09:54 AM
It cheers me up to think we possibly have a Gwynn-caliber player in AAA

Maximo
02-23-2004, 09:59 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
They are listing their top prospects in Baseball this week.


Not sure Francona belongs in the same sentence as Gwynn and Mattingly.....but it sure does sound promising.

sas1974
02-23-2004, 11:02 AM
Originally posted by Maximo
Not sure Francona belongs in the same sentence as Gwynn and Mattingly.....but it sure does sound promising.

I thought that was a little odd too.

Frater Perdurabo
02-23-2004, 11:09 AM
How great would it be if Reed could be a lock for the #2 spot for the next 10 years? If he meets the expectations that are being thrust upon him (and yes, that's a BIG IF), then he will become EXACTLY what the Sox need: high average, high OBP, left-handed, decent speed left fielder. OK, I'll stop drooling now... :D:

SSN721
02-23-2004, 11:29 AM
Not a bad list for Reed to be included with I think.

SoxxoS
02-23-2004, 11:33 AM
Just wait until Garland, Rauch, Crede, Olivo, Borchard and Reed all reach their ceilings.

benjamin
02-23-2004, 11:39 AM
Word is in that Reed will be listed as the #2 prospect.

Hokiesox
02-23-2004, 11:46 AM
Originally posted by Maximo
Not sure Francona belongs in the same sentence as Gwynn and Mattingly.....but it sure does sound promising.


Perhaps it's the spectrum of possible results when he's called up. You know, if he played for any other team with a proven great manager, he'd be Tony Gwynn material. But, with an unproven question mark as his teacher at the major league level, he could be Terry Francona.

Makes sense to me.

Tragg
02-23-2004, 11:49 AM
Can he play CF?

He's not going to spring training, is he?

MisterB
02-23-2004, 11:58 AM
Originally posted by Tragg
Can he play CF?

He's not going to spring training, is he?

1. Kind of.

2. He's a non-roster invitee.

Randar68
02-23-2004, 12:04 PM
Originally posted by MisterB
1. Kind of.

2. He's a non-roster invitee.

LOL!

As for 1), he's a better option defensively than Rowand.

SoxxoS
02-23-2004, 12:06 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
As for 1), he's a better option defensively than Rowand.

That is up for debate.

batmanZoSo
02-23-2004, 06:42 PM
Originally posted by mantis1212
It cheers me up to think we possibly have a Gwynn-caliber player in AAA


That's probably an accurate comparison. Gwynn was a lot skinnier and faster in the early 80s. Reed will probably hit more homers though, because well...everybody hits more homers now than they did 20 years ago. I see reed putting up mid-90s Gwynn numbers. Take his 97 season in which he won the batting title and put up relatively great power numbers (.372 17 hr). Or even 2000 Darin Erstad (.355 25 hr). It'll probably take him 3 or 4 years to fine his power stroke, but it will come.

Randar68
02-24-2004, 10:14 AM
Originally posted by batmanZoSo
That's probably an accurate comparison. Gwynn was a lot skinnier and faster in the early 80s. Reed will probably hit more homers though, because well...everybody hits more homers now than they did 20 years ago. I see reed putting up mid-90s Gwynn numbers. Take his 97 season in which he won the batting title and put up relatively great power numbers (.372 17 hr). Or even 2000 Darin Erstad (.355 25 hr). It'll probably take him 3 or 4 years to fine his power stroke, but it will come.

GOOD GOD! Gwynn is a first-ballot-HOF'er! WHy do you people do this?

I'm printing this thread so when these same people complain that Reed only hit .275 in his first season, I can show them how unrealistic and rediculous they are.

MRKARNO
02-24-2004, 10:25 AM
Originally posted by Randar68
GOOD GOD! Gwynn is a first-ballot-HOF'er! WHy do you people do this?

I'm printing this thread so when these same people complain that Reed only hit .275 in his first season, I can show them how unrealistic and rediculous they are.

Not to say that he could do this but....

I was glancing at a book on prospects at borders where it "translated' his stats into major league stats and it said that he wouldve hit .316 in the majors last year based on that. He's only gonna get better. If this guy doesnt hit better than .300 within 3 years of his debut then I will consider him as not reaching to his potential. He has 3000 hit potential. He has HOF potential. He could be that good. But we all have to remember that not all prospects pan out the way that they are supposed to before we start going crazy. Let's wait for his ML debut before we start truly comparing him to Gwynn and Boggs

poorme
02-24-2004, 10:31 AM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
He has 3000 hit potential. He has HOF potential. He could be that good.

Not if he's wasting away in the minors. I would suspect most HOF'ers debut at age 21 or 22.

benjamin
02-24-2004, 11:30 AM
The key is that everyone needs to realize that these are COMPARABLE players. It does not mean that Reed is the second coming of Gwynn or the pre-injury-riddled Mattingley...

In the same way that Ray Durham had Joe Morgan listed as one of his COMPARABLES, Reed appears to be a similar type of player as that of Gwynn and Mattingley.

I don't think anyone would agree that Durham is/was the equal to Morgan, but you would agree that they had similar styles of play...

2B, power + speed, a bit on the small side in terms of height, etc.

hold2dibber
02-27-2004, 12:46 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
If this guy doesnt hit better than .300 within 3 years of his debut then I will consider him as not reaching to his potential. He has 3000 hit potential. He has HOF potential. He could be that good. But we all have to remember that not all prospects pan out the way that they are supposed to before we start going crazy. Let's wait for his ML debut before we start truly comparing him to Gwynn and Boggs

To some extent, I think this kind of thinking is what leads fans to unfairly say that the Sox "overhype" their prospects. A Sox minor league player has some serious minor league success and the fans turn that into "he has HOF potential!" Then, if they guy doesn't turn into Rogers Hornsby, he's a disappointment. I'm not really picking on you, MRKARNO, as you clearly understand that we have to wait until he starts playing in the majors before we really know what we have here -- my point is that a lot of times, fans get completely overestimate prospects and take the "hype" about unproven minor league players way too far.

SEALgep
02-27-2004, 01:02 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
To some extent, I think this kind of thinking is what leads fans to unfairly say that the Sox "overhype" their prospects. A Sox minor league player has some serious minor league success and the fans turn that into "he has HOF potential!" Then, if they guy doesn't turn into Rogers Hornsby, he's a disappointment. I'm not really picking on you, MRKARNO, as you clearly understand that we have to wait until he starts playing in the majors before we really know what we have here -- my point is that a lot of times, fans get completely overestimate prospects and take the "hype" about unproven minor league players way too far. To be fair to MRKARNO, it isn't just Sox fans praising Reed. He has been listed as the #2 prospect in all of baseball by some, and #4 in some others. I am yet to see him not rated in the top 5, and that's including all these young pitching studs. I have high hopes for him as well, but Sox fans aren't alone in expecting good things from him.

Randar68
02-27-2004, 01:13 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
To be fair to MRKARNO, it isn't just Sox fans praising Reed. He has been listed as the #2 prospect in all of baseball by some, and #4 in some others. I am yet to see him not rated in the top 5, and that's including all these young pitching studs. I have high hopes for him as well, but Sox fans aren't alone in expecting good things from him.

Baseball America rated him as the 25th best prospect in the game as of TODAY.

Randar68
02-27-2004, 01:15 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
To some extent, I think this kind of thinking is what leads fans to unfairly say that the Sox "overhype" their prospects. A Sox minor league player has some serious minor league success and the fans turn that into "he has HOF potential!" Then, if they guy doesn't turn into Rogers Hornsby, he's a disappointment. I'm not really picking on you, MRKARNO, as you clearly understand that we have to wait until he starts playing in the majors before we really know what we have here -- my point is that a lot of times, fans get completely overestimate prospects and take the "hype" about unproven minor league players way too far.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Frank has been prolific for most of 14 years and is still a few years away from 3000 if he ever get's there. Guys that take a lot of walks have to play 20+ years often times to even approach 3000 hits.

HOF and 3000 hits are milestones reserved for only players with both longevity and greatness, and to unfairly classify Reed as having those expectations is both foolish and irresponsible, IMO.

I don't think people have a grasp on reality when it comes to these kinds of things.

SEALgep
02-27-2004, 01:17 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Baseball America rated him as the 25th best prospect in the game as of TODAY. Didn't see it, but I believe it. There are a lot of others though that rate him in the top 5. Not saying they are more reputable, but regardless they do. They are just rankings anyway, they still have to go out on the field and prove it. However, I do like Reed's tools, and I believe they will carry over to success in the majors. Patience at the plate and good pitch recognition usually carries over at any level, but we shall see. :smile:

Randar68
02-27-2004, 01:22 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
Didn't see it, but I believe it. There are a lot of others though that rate him in the top 5. Not saying they are more reputable, but regardless they do. They are just rankings anyway, they still have to go out on the field and prove it. However, I do like Reed's tools, and I believe they will carry over to success in the majors. Patience at the plate and good pitch recognition usually carries over at any level, but we shall see. :smile:

Most that rate him in the top 5 do so because of performance and closeness to the majors. I think 15-25 is about right based on overall potential.

TaylorStSox
02-27-2004, 01:38 PM
If I'm not mistaken, BP listed Reed as the 21st ranked prospect in the organization before last year. Let's not talk about the HOF yet. It is possible, though unlikely, that he caught lightning in a bottle last year.

jeremyb1
02-27-2004, 04:55 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
If I'm not mistaken, BP listed Reed as the 21st ranked prospect in the organization before last year. Let's not talk about the HOF yet. It is possible, though unlikely, that he caught lightning in a bottle last year.

BP or Baseball America? Regardless, Reed only had 210 at bats prior to last season so there wasn't really enough of a track record to make a strong evaluation good or bad.

MRKARNO
02-27-2004, 05:03 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
It is possible, though unlikely, that he caught lightning in a bottle last year.

Yes it's possible, but this guy hasnt hit lower than .300 at any level. I dont see why this guy can't at least be a shannon stewart type player.

So it really isnt realistic that he will get 3000 hits, but he is a player in that mold if you get what I'm saying.