PDA

View Full Version : Not for Ozzie Haters


poorme
02-11-2004, 04:17 PM
Since I'm really bored today...and people who criticize Guillen's base-running irritate me, I tried to investigate the subject objectively. My objective was to show that Guillen wasn't a terrible baserunner. I picked 1987 because that was before his knee injury. Here's what i did:

hits+BB-hr= X
runs-hr=Y

X/Y = ratio of runs scored to times on base (not via the HR)

Using this ratio, Guillen was 69th out of 220 AL batters...above average...even though the Sox offense wasn't exactly filled with guys to knock him in. (they were 11th out of 14 teams in runs scored.)

Before someone flies off the handle and calls me a &*%#ing moron, I admit this isn't scientific. I just thought some of you might find it interesting.

leaders:

Player ratio
#Curtis Wilkerson 0.634146341
Mark Davidson 0.596153846
*Rick Manning 0.552631579
#Nelson Liriano 0.519230769
Jim Morrison 0.5
Bob Brower 0.485148515
*Luis Polonia 0.483660131
#Willie Wilson 0.46969697
+ Don Baylor 0.457142857
Paul Molitor 0.451612903
#John Moses 0.450819672
Kelly Gruber 0.447058824
#Mike Felder 0.446601942
#Stan Javier 0.444444444
Henry Cotto 0.444444444
*Jim Dwyer 0.443181818
.
.

Guillen .036


laggards

Ron Kittle 0.214285714
*Jim Eisenreich 0.214285714
Tom Nieto 0.214285714
#Roy Smalley 0.212389381
Domingo Ramos 0.212121212
+*Bill Buckner 0.209677419
*Rance Mulliniks 0.206349206
*Jamie Quirk 0.204301075
Brook Jacoby 0.2
*Tom O'Malley 0.195652174
Ron Cey 0.195121951
*Johnny Grubb 0.194444444
Ray Knight 0.189349112
George Hendrick 0.1875
#Jerry Hairston 0.183673469
Gary Matthews 0.175
#Mickey Tettleton 0.174603175
Juan Beniquez 0.166666667
*Mike Easler 0.157894737
*Mark Ryal 0.111111111

Dadawg_77
02-11-2004, 04:22 PM
Ozzie batted 9th or 8th so when he got on the top of the lineup was coming up. So you would expect a higher rate of scoring chances converted from the bottom of the lineup due to that fact.

mantis1212
02-11-2004, 04:27 PM
Great effort, although I agree with dadawg about position in the lineup. If you could somehow breakout #9, #1, and #2 batters from the rest you could make a better judgement. Also add in walks with hits. Let's come up with a new stat!

poorme
02-11-2004, 04:29 PM
Well, that's something I considered, but there's no way to account for it...at least easily.

If you go to retrosheet.org, you can find the old box scores and see where he batted. usually 8th, but sometimes 6th, 7th, 9th, or 1st.

more often than not, karko batted behind him and then one of our bad leadoff men like redus, royster, boston, or hill.

occasionally he would bat 1st and then baines would bat 3rd, so that would be a help.

poorme
02-11-2004, 04:30 PM
Originally posted by mantis1212
Also add in walks with hits. Let's come up with a new stat!

Sorry, my mistake, they are in there, but I forgot to tell you that.

ChiSox65
02-11-2004, 04:53 PM
Originally posted by poorme
Since I'm really bored today...and people who criticize Guillen's base-running irritate me, I tried to investigate the subject objectively. My objective was to show that Guillen wasn't a terrible baserunner. I picked 1987 because that was before his knee injury. Here's what i did:

hits+BB-hr= X
runs-hr=Y

X/Y = ratio of runs scored to times on base (not via the HR)

Using this ratio, Guillen was 69th out of 220 AL batters...above average...even though the Sox offense wasn't exactly filled with guys to knock him in. (they were 11th out of 14 teams in runs scored.)

Before someone flies off the handle and calls me a &*%#ing moron, I admit this isn't scientific. I just thought some of you might find it interesting.

leaders:

Player ratio
#Curtis Wilkerson 0.634146341
Mark Davidson 0.596153846
*Rick Manning 0.552631579
#Nelson Liriano 0.519230769
Jim Morrison 0.5
Bob Brower 0.485148515
*Luis Polonia 0.483660131
#Willie Wilson 0.46969697
+ Don Baylor 0.457142857
Paul Molitor 0.451612903
#John Moses 0.450819672
Kelly Gruber 0.447058824
#Mike Felder 0.446601942
#Stan Javier 0.444444444
Henry Cotto 0.444444444
*Jim Dwyer 0.443181818
.
.

Guillen .036


laggards

Ron Kittle 0.214285714
*Jim Eisenreich 0.214285714
Tom Nieto 0.214285714
#Roy Smalley 0.212389381
Domingo Ramos 0.212121212
+*Bill Buckner 0.209677419
*Rance Mulliniks 0.206349206
*Jamie Quirk 0.204301075
Brook Jacoby 0.2
*Tom O'Malley 0.195652174
Ron Cey 0.195121951
*Johnny Grubb 0.194444444
Ray Knight 0.189349112
George Hendrick 0.1875
#Jerry Hairston 0.183673469
Gary Matthews 0.175
#Mickey Tettleton 0.174603175
Juan Beniquez 0.166666667
*Mike Easler 0.157894737
*Mark Ryal 0.111111111

Holy crap dude...........You WERE seriously bored!!!!!! :gulp:

A. Cavatica
02-11-2004, 08:54 PM
And about after his injury? Did he adjust?

poorme
02-11-2004, 09:19 PM
OK. His percentages are 37% before the injury and 38% after.

The numbers would be better if he didn't have such a bad caught stealing percentage.

It is my opinion that overall, he was a good baserunner, but not a good basestealer (61% success rate).

A. Cavatica
02-11-2004, 09:50 PM
I tip my cap to you for trying to quantify it, but I think you're measuring speed and position in the batting order more than you're measuring baserunning skill. Your leaders are people like Willie Wilson. Your laggards are people like Ron Cey.

The stolen-base percentage seems like a much purer measurement of baserunning skill (and judgment).

A. Cavatica
02-11-2004, 09:52 PM
Maybe if you multiplied your ratio by stolen-base percentage you would get a more useful number?

batmanZoSo
02-11-2004, 10:03 PM
Originally posted by poorme
Well, that's something I considered, but there's no way to account for it...at least easily.

If you go to retrosheet.org, you can find the old box scores and see where he batted. usually 8th, but sometimes 6th, 7th, 9th, or 1st.

more often than not, karko batted behind him and then one of our bad leadoff men like redus, royster, boston, or hill.

occasionally he would bat 1st and then baines would bat 3rd, so that would be a help.

If Karko batted behind him, he wasn't coming in too often.

poorme
02-11-2004, 10:10 PM
I'm not denying speed is a determinant in baserunning ability, but I do deny that basestealing is the same as baserunning. Carlton Fisk was (seemingly) a great baserunner, but not much of a threat to steal.

I readily admit this isn't proof...just something to think about. The fact that he got caught twice in one game by the hidden ball trick isn't proof of anything either.

I used to watch just about every game during his tenure here and always thought Guillen was an excellent baserunner. I was actually shocked when I found this site and found out how many people think otherwise. I guess if we knew all the anwers without doubt, baseball wouldn't be nearly as interesting.

A. Cavatica
02-11-2004, 10:21 PM
Well, the question we're trying to answer is not whether he had good wheels (which he did, before the injury) but whether he had good judgment. So you need to get that stolen-base percentage into the equation somewhere.

Daver
02-11-2004, 10:29 PM
I cannot come up with a scenario where I would call Ozzie Guillen an excellent baserunner.


But then again,what the hell do I know? ©

A. Cavatica
02-11-2004, 10:49 PM
Originally posted by Daver
I cannot come up with a scenario where I would call Ozzie Guillen an excellent baserunner.

How about in comparison to D'Angelo Jimenez?

poorme
02-12-2004, 12:34 AM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
Well, the question we're trying to answer is not whether he had good wheels (which he did, before the injury) but whether he had good judgment. So you need to get that stolen-base percentage into the equation somewhere.

It is in there. Those caught stealings hurt his runs scored percentage.