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jeremyb1
02-04-2004, 12:42 PM
Baseball Prospectus has an article today analyzing the Tiger's chances in the central in light of their signing of IRod which includes some interesting analysis. BP looks at the central by totaling the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) for each team's roster as projected by their PECOTA projection system. Here's the breakdown for the position players and pitchers:

Tigers Royals Twins Indians White Sox
C Rodriguez Santiago LeCroy Martinez Olivo
1B Pena Sweeney M'kiewicz Broussard Konerko
2B Vina Relaford Rivas Belliard Harris
3B Munson Randa Koskie Blake Crede
SS Guillen Berroa Guzman Vizquel Valentin
LF White Stairs Stewart Lawton Lee
CF Sanchez Beltran Hunter Bradley Rowand
RF Higginson Gonzalez Jones Gerut Ordonez
DH Young Harvey Cuddyer Hafner Thomas
Bench1 Monroe Graffanino Ford Ludwick Uribe
Bench2 Shelton Pickering Morneau Crisp Benard
VORP* 176.6 145.8 200.0 146.6 186.2
*PECOTA-projected

Tigers Royals Twins Indians White Sox

SP1 Maroth May Radke Sabathia Buehrle
SP2 Cornejo Anderson Santana Davis Loaiza
SP3 Johnson Appier Lohse Lee Garland
SP4 Bonderman Affeldt Balfour Stanford Schoeneweis
SP5 Robertson Gobble Mays Westbrook Rauch

RP1 Rodney Sullivan Nathan Riske Marte
RP2 Levine Leskanic Romero Betancourt Koch
RP3 German MacDougal Rincon Stewart Wunsch

VORP* 56.7 120.6 138.6 96.9 138.0

*PECOTA-projected

Total 233.3 266.4 338.6 246.5 324.2

Iwritecode
02-04-2004, 12:59 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Baseball Prospectus has an article today analyzing the Tiger's chances in the central in light of their signing of IRod which includes some interesting analysis. BP looks at the central by totaling the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) for each team's roster as projected by their PECOTA projection system. Here's the breakdown for the position players and pitchers:

OK, so what do those numbers mean? They think the Tigers will still finish last?

Also, who the hell is Benard?

CHISOXFAN13
02-04-2004, 01:01 PM
Originally posted by Iwritecode
OK, so what do those numbers mean? They think the Tigers will still finish last?

Also, who the hell is Benard?

Former Giants OF Marvin Benard. He was among the non-roster invites to ST.

SoxxoS
02-04-2004, 01:05 PM
Originally posted by Iwritecode
OK, so what do those numbers mean? They think the Tigers will still finish last?

Also, who the hell is Benard?

You didn't see that move on the cover of the Sun-Times? You call yourself a fan?!!

MisterB
02-04-2004, 01:10 PM
Originally posted by Iwritecode
OK, so what do those numbers mean? They think the Tigers will still finish last?

Also, who the hell is Benard?

http://espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/5524.jpg
Marvin Benard

And, yes, they're saying the Kitties should still finish last. They're also saying the Sox are second behind the Twinkies. (Bigger number = better team)

hold2dibber
02-04-2004, 02:42 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Baseball Prospectus has an article today analyzing the Tiger's chances in the central in light of their signing of IRod which includes some interesting analysis. BP looks at the central by totaling the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) for each team's roster as projected by their PECOTA projection system. Here's the breakdown for the position players and pitchers:

I'm shocked at how poorly the Royals line-up fared. I think they have a damn good line-up, but this analysis ranks them last, behind even the Tigers and the Indians. :?: I don't see it.

longshot7
02-04-2004, 02:52 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
I'm shocked at how poorly the Royals line-up fared. I think they have a damn good line-up, but this analysis ranks them last, behind even the Tigers and the Indians. :?: I don't see it.

yeah - this is crap. I'm picking the royals to win the division.

Konerko05
02-04-2004, 03:12 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
I'm shocked at how poorly the Royals line-up fared. I think they have a damn good line-up, but this analysis ranks them last, behind even the Tigers and the Indians. :?: I don't see it.

Yeah, I also was going to comment on that. The Royals have a pretty strong lineup, I don't understand how it can rank last in the division. The Royals should have the best offense in the Central, so yeah I don't get it either.

maurice
02-04-2004, 03:33 PM
To summarize their rankings . . .

Position players:
1. Twins
2. Sox
3. Tigers
4. Indians / Royals

Pitchers:
1. Twins / Sox
3. Royals
4. Indians
5. Tigers

Overall:
1. Twins
2. Sox
3. Royals
4. Indians
5. Tigers

IMHO, they're slightly overrating the Twins, and underrating the Indians' pitching and the Royals' position players.

jeremyb1
02-04-2004, 03:38 PM
Originally posted by Konerko05
Yeah, I also was going to comment on that. The Royals have a pretty strong lineup, I don't understand how it can rank last in the division. The Royals should have the best offense in the Central, so yeah I don't get it either.

PECOTA doesn't like a lot of the Royals to have great seasons. Sweeney, Berroa, and Beltran are the only three players projected to have a VORP over 15 wheras we have seven (Crede, Thomas, Valentin, and Maggs, Konerko, Carlos, and Reed). Santiago, Gonzalez, and Stairs are all projected to have somewhat dissapointing seasons and Randa is pretty overrated.

SSN721
02-04-2004, 03:38 PM
I dont know how much faith I have in these numbers if KCs lineup is ranked below Detroit, that is pretty ridiculous. I still dont think they can win the division, only because of their pitching. And I would be willing to say that the Sox are at the very worst tied with the Twins for pitching. Although the Twins probably have a better overall lineup as well. Oh well, twil be a long year. :(:

jeremyb1
02-04-2004, 03:55 PM
Originally posted by SSN721
I dont know how much faith I have in these numbers if KCs lineup is ranked below Detroit, that is pretty ridiculous. I still dont think they can win the division, only because of their pitching. And I would be willing to say that the Sox are at the very worst tied with the Twins for pitching. Although the Twins probably have a better overall lineup as well. Oh well, twil be a long year. :(:

Part of that may be due to the fact that VORP is a somewhat unconventional statistic. Many might take issue with players' VORP stats from last season because it is not what people are used to. First of all, walks/OBP are going to be more heavily considered than many are used to since the use of batting average is still incredibly prevalent. Additionally, stats are going to be adjusted for park effects which can make a huge difference for Detroit for instance. The reason many are suprised by the high ranking of Detroits offense may be due to the fact that when you take park effects into account their club hits better than you'd imagine just looking at raw statistics. Another difference with VORP that might throw some is that a player's offensive stats are adjusted relative to their position. Therefore, Jose is rated as considerably better than Carlos because SS is a much weaker offensive position (also because Jose walks more than Carlos and has a similar OBP despite a lower batting average).

ma-gaga
02-13-2004, 01:28 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Part of that may be due to the fact that VORP is a somewhat unconventional statistic.

hmm. Unfortunately for the Twins, BP assumes that Lew Ford and Justin Morneau make the team, and looking at the 2004 Pecota projections, they combine for 20.0+ VORP. Enough to bring them back to the pack.

These numbers aren't bad, I think they give a rough estimate of the major league talent in the division. If the Twins use their prospects correctly, they'll be the better team. I unfortunately can see the 'proven veteran' Offerman making the team and sending Ford back to AAA because he has an option left. I can see them benching LeCroy because he goes 0 for 6 in two games. I can see the dynamic duo of Guzman/Rivas getting 1200 at bats...

Nobody has a perfect team in this division.

SouthSideHitman
02-13-2004, 04:38 PM
Originally posted by ma-gaga
Nobody has a perfect team in this division.

That is quite possibly the understatment of our young year. The given the rest of the AL's increase in strength and the fact that our already mediocre division lost some talent this offseason, the AL Central will compete with the NL West for worst in baseball in '04.

That being said, I still like the Sox chances. I think that the Sox' pitching will outperform expectations this year and that the Twinkies will underperform, ever so slightly. KC will be a big threat if the magic is still there, but PECOTA is right to be wary of Royals.

poorme
02-13-2004, 04:41 PM
How does PECOTA handle guys that only played a partial season the year before (ie Sweeney, Gonzalez)?

ChiSox7
02-13-2004, 05:08 PM
The reason that people are questioning the Royals offense is the same reason that many believed our offense wouldn't be as good in 2001. Those guys hit unbelievably well with RISP, especially with 2 outs, just like we did in 2000. They most likely won't hit like that again this year. Hitting over .300 with RISP is crazy good. It just doesn't happen very much.

jeremyb1
02-15-2004, 06:16 PM
Originally posted by poorme
How does PECOTA handle guys that only played a partial season the year before (ie Sweeney, Gonzalez)?

The projections are based on at least the past three seasons I believe. The biggest effect it'd have is that it might project a player to have fewer at bats or struggle more since it most likely indicates injury problems.