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View Full Version : Interesting trade proposal from Rogers


thepaulbowski
01-30-2004, 07:29 AM
Here's the link. Now discuss amongst yourselves. :D:

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-0401300292jan30,1,5651045.story?coll=cs-sports-print

hold2dibber
01-30-2004, 07:41 AM
I have no confidence in Uribe, so Valentin for prospects doesn't do it for me (although, I must admit, I know nothing about the prospects he mentions as possibilities).

As to the 3-way deal with the Angels, Valentin and PK for Washburn and Erstad has some appeal. But ... although Rogers indicates that it is essentially a cash neutral deal, he's wrong, because the Sox would be on the hook for $24 million to Erstad where as right now they're on the hook to PK for "just" $16 million. And I have more faith in PK turning it around than I do in Erstad. The line-up would be atrocious:

Harris 2B
Erstad CF
Thomas DH
Ordonez RF
Lee 1B
Crede 3B
Rowand LF
Olivo C
Uribe SS

That's 4 sink holes (Uribe, Olivo, Harris, Erstad), 2 okays (Rowand, Crede) and three good hitters (Frank, Maggs, Lee). And no one other than Thomas and Ordonez that gets on base at a high rate. The defense would be much improved, though.

I think I'd rather send Jose to the Yankees and just get Washburn from the Angels. I think Washburn has a few years before he's FA eligible, he's a good, young lefty and the Sox really need another dependable starting pitcher. That offense would be weakened with Jose out and Uribe in, but I think I'd trade a little O to upgrade the rotation at this point. Or, if the Sox could include Koch in the deal and get Weber from the Angels, which would make it a payroll reduction for the Sox and would give the Sox one of the best right handed middle relievers in the AL.

cornball
01-30-2004, 07:41 AM
Sounds like a good deal for the Sox. I would do it!!!

The underlying story is the Yankees, they have a need and fill it immediately......unreal.....ownership...yada,yada

soxfan26
01-30-2004, 07:47 AM
It could be time for a real shakeup, not just another fine-tuning of the group that has averaged 83 victories the last three seasons.

I would not like to see the Sox trade Valentin to NY for prospects.

The Anaheim angle seems even worse than that. Washburn would be a nice addition to the rotation, but Erstad has a contract worse than Konerko's. $7.5m in '04, $8m in '05, and $8.5m in 2006. Not for a guy with 10-12 HR power and a .320 OBP, I don't care how much of a ra-ra guy he is.

He mentions the Yankess picking up Koch's contract. Not likely.

tanko
01-30-2004, 08:38 AM
The thing about this is it's the Yankees they will be agressive in getting things done.

habibharu
01-30-2004, 09:42 AM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
I have no confidence in Uribe, so Valentin for prospects doesn't do it for me (although, I must admit, I know nothing about the prospects he mentions as possibilities).

As to the 3-way deal with the Angels, Valentin and PK for Washburn and Erstad has some appeal. But ... although Rogers indicates that it is essentially a cash neutral deal, he's wrong, because the Sox would be on the hook for $24 million to Erstad where as right now they're on the hook to PK for "just" $16 million. And I have more faith in PK turning it around than I do in Erstad. The line-up would be atrocious:

Harris 2B
Erstad CF
Thomas DH
Ordonez RF
Lee 1B
Crede 3B
Rowand LF
Olivo C
Uribe SS

That's 4 sink holes (Uribe, Olivo, Harris, Erstad), 2 okays (Rowand, Crede) and three good hitters (Frank, Maggs, Lee). And no one other than Thomas and Ordonez that gets on base at a high rate. The defense would be much improved, though.

I think I'd rather send Jose to the Yankees and just get Washburn from the Angels. I think Washburn has a few years before he's FA eligible, he's a good, young lefty and the Sox really need another dependable starting pitcher. That offense would be weakened with Jose out and Uribe in, but I think I'd trade a little O to upgrade the rotation at this point. Or, if the Sox could include Koch in the deal and get Weber from the Angels, which would make it a payroll reduction for the Sox and would give the Sox one of the best right handed middle relievers in the AL.

what are you talkin about? how is erstad a sinkhole? he batted .355 a couple years ago!

tanko
01-30-2004, 09:44 AM
Originally posted by habibharu
what are you talkin about? how is erstad a sinkhole? he batted .355 a couple years ago!

Plus he is a fine athlete.,

StepsInSC
01-30-2004, 09:45 AM
Originally posted by habibharu
what are you talkin about? how is erstad a sinkhole? he batted .355 a couple years ago!

In 2000, so 4 years ago.

Since then he's batted .258, .283, and .252 all with below average OBPs.

His contract is filthy, exactly the type that has gotten the sox in trouble in the past.

Mickster
01-30-2004, 09:50 AM
Originally posted by StepsInSC
In 2000, so 4 years ago.

Since then he's batted .258, .283, and .252 all with below average OBPs.

His contract is filthy, exactly the type that has gotten the sox in trouble int the past.

Agreed. PK's upside is much greater than Erstad's esp. when dealing w/ a contract that is very similar in price and 1 year longer!

bobj4400
01-30-2004, 10:15 AM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
I have no confidence in Uribe, so Valentin for prospects doesn't do it for me (although, I must admit, I know nothing about the prospects he mentions as possibilities).

As to the 3-way deal with the Angels, Valentin and PK for Washburn and Erstad has some appeal. But ... although Rogers indicates that it is essentially a cash neutral deal, he's wrong, because the Sox would be on the hook for $24 million to Erstad where as right now they're on the hook to PK for "just" $16 million. And I have more faith in PK turning it around than I do in Erstad. The line-up would be atrocious:

Harris 2B
Erstad CF
Thomas DH
Ordonez RF
Lee 1B
Crede 3B
Rowand LF
Olivo C
Uribe SS

That's 4 sink holes (Uribe, Olivo, Harris, Erstad), 2 okays (Rowand, Crede) and three good hitters (Frank, Maggs, Lee). And no one other than Thomas and Ordonez that gets on base at a high rate. The defense would be much improved, though.

I think I'd rather send Jose to the Yankees and just get Washburn from the Angels. I think Washburn has a few years before he's FA eligible, he's a good, young lefty and the Sox really need another dependable starting pitcher. That offense would be weakened with Jose out and Uribe in, but I think I'd trade a little O to upgrade the rotation at this point. Or, if the Sox could include Koch in the deal and get Weber from the Angels, which would make it a payroll reduction for the Sox and would give the Sox one of the best right handed middle relievers in the AL.

Erstad may have fallen a bit since his career year in 2000, but he is still a lot better than crash will ever be...

wdelaney72
01-30-2004, 10:25 AM
Borth of these trades make sense. I agree that Konerko has an upside, and that last year was probably a fluke, but I don't like Konerko and Frank on the same team. Frank's numbers clearly show he needs to be playing the field (.80 pts higher batting average when Frank plays 1B). The Sox have too many slow power hitters. Ersted has had success before, he's defensively solid, and he's a desperately needed left handed bat (Yes, Jose is a lefty but he can take his .237 batting average to NY.) Send them on their way!

maurice
01-30-2004, 10:49 AM
Originally posted by StepsInSC
In 2000, so 4 years ago.

Since then he's batted .258, .283, and .252 all with below average OBPs.

His contract is filthy, exactly the type that has gotten the sox in trouble in the past.

:KW
"But he's a grinder."

Dumping Konerko and adding Washburn = good
Adding Erstad and dumping Valentin without adding a decent MIF = bad

ozzie'sBallSack
01-30-2004, 10:52 AM
Konerko will rebound... his 2nd-half numbers weren't great, but they weren't horrible (.275-13-43), actually pretty close to his three year average.

His defense is good enough, better than Frank and better than training Carlos at 1B.

Erstad is an expensive slap hitter with dimishing speed and a bad habit for getting hurt almost every year... but I guess he's a good clubhouse guy.

Washburn is acceptable... last year he had a big ERA increase, but but he had an OK WHIP... seems durable and solid.

At $5mm Valentin has to go.

I guess on paper Konerko for Washburn is OK. Valentin for Erstad is OK... but what a mediocre line-up:

Harris 2B - Off: D Def: C
Erstad CF - Off: C Def: A
Thomas DH - Off: B
Ordonez RF - Off: A Def: B (should have a great free agent year)
Lee 1B - Off: B Def: C
Crede 3B - Off: C Def: B
Rowand LF - Off: C Def B
Olivo C - Off: D Def: B
Uribe SS - Off: D Def B

Overall - Off: C Def: C+

Starters:

Beurhle - B
Loaiza - B
Washburn - B
Garland - C
Cotts/Schoenweis - C

Overall Starters: C+

Bullpen:
Marte - A
Koch - B (hopefully)
Zero - B (hopefully)
Pollite - C
Wunsch - B
Wright - C
et al: D


Overall Bullpen: C

jeremyb1
01-30-2004, 10:59 AM
I dislike both deals. Valentin is a key part of any contending club we'll have this season and the Yankees don't have a great farm system, so dealing him for prospects doesn't work in my opinion. Washburn would be nice but we're trading one of our best players relative to position in Valentin and adding two dreadful offensive performers to the lineup in Erstad and Uribe. Not a good move.

StepsInSC
01-30-2004, 11:02 AM
Originally posted by ozzie'sBallSack


Greatest. Handle. Ever?

MisterB
01-30-2004, 11:32 AM
Originally posted by bobj4400
Erstad may have fallen a bit since his career year in 2000, but he is still a lot better than crash will ever be...

At this point I'd dare say that even Crash could outhit Erstad over a full season, but Erstad is way better defensively. But he's grossly overpaid, and frankly we could pay Chris Singleton $7M less a season for slightly less offense and similar defense.

JRIG
01-30-2004, 11:47 AM
I've said it before and I'll say it again: KW's mindless obsession with aquiring Darin Erstad is people's evidence #1 as to why he will go down as one of the worst GMs in White Sox history, sitting on the mantle next to Hawk Harrelson.

Erstad is a terrible offensive player with a horrible contract and is chronically injured. He hasn't hit since 2000, can't get on base, and his power has left him as well. He is one of the top three defensive center fielders in the game today, but that is not enough to make up for his other deficiencies. Adding him to thje lineup and subtracting Valentin would severly hurt our run-producing capabilities. No one would get on base in front of Frank and Mags and no one would get on base behind him.

You know the old cliche "You can't steal first base"? For this team it should be changed to "You can't grind out first base."

SEALgep
01-30-2004, 11:53 AM
Originally posted by JRIG
I've said it before and I'll say it again: KW's mindless obsession with aquiring Darin Erstad is people's evidence #1 as to why he will go down as one of the worst GMs in White Sox history, sitting on the mantle next to Hawk Harrelson.

Erstad is a terrible offensive player with a horrible contract and is chronically injured. He hasn't hit since 2000, can't get on base, and his power has left him as well. He is one of the top three defensive center fielders in the game today, but that is not enough to make up for his other deficiencies. Adding him to thje lineup and subtracting Valentin would severly hurt our run-producing capabilities. No one would get on base in front of Frank and Mags and no one would get on base behind him.

You know the old cliche "You can't steal first base"? For this team it should be changed to "You can't grind out first base."
I agree with not wanting to take on Erstad because his injuries and contract are a liability, but saying Valentin is vital to our OBP as a team is far off. He hit .233 last year, that's certainly replaceable.

StepsInSC
01-30-2004, 11:54 AM
Originally posted by bobj4400
Erstad may have fallen a bit since his career year in 2000, but he is still a lot better than crash will ever be...

6+ million dollars better?

Man Soo Lee
01-30-2004, 12:07 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
I agree with not wanting to take on Erstad because his injuries and contract are a liability, but saying Valentin is vital to our OBP as a team is far off. He hit .233 last year, that's certainly replaceable.

In the 400 ABs vs. right handers last year, Valentin had a higher batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS than Frank. I'm not crazy about having a platoon player at such an important position, but the Sox are much worse without his bat in the lineup.

As proposed, only the Yankees are improved by this trade.

hold2dibber
01-30-2004, 12:18 PM
Originally posted by Man Soo Lee
In the 400 ABs vs. right handers last year, Valentin had a higher batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS than Frank.

Huh? No he didn't:

Jose vs. righties: .265 avg, .535 SLG, .880 OPS
Frank: .267, .562 SLG, .952 OPS

But I agree with your basic premise - i.e., that losing Jose would be a blow to the offense. Of course, if Ozzie insists on getting him 100 ABs against lefties, not as bit a blow, since he is absolutely atrocious against lefties.

FarmerAndy
01-30-2004, 12:25 PM
I'm not impressed with Erstad either. BUT....

*Washburn would be a good addition to the rotation.
*PK + Valentin = $13 Million............... Goodbye.


Can we please stop clinging to Valentin? I swear, if we had a chance at AROD, there would still be people around here trying to make a case for keeping Valentin. He's an alright player, but with a $5 Million price tag, moving him would be addition by subtraction.

DrCrawdad
01-30-2004, 12:27 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by ozzie'sBallSack


Originally posted by StepsInSC
Greatest. Handle. Ever?

Ozzie's B-Sack, is NOT anything I want to handle.

hold2dibber
01-30-2004, 12:29 PM
Originally posted by habibharu
what are you talkin about? how is erstad a sinkhole? he batted .355 a couple years ago!

Well, if the sox are going to get a time machine in the deal and obtain the 2000 version of Erstad, I'm all for it. Otherwise, the guy is the King Of All Sink Holes. He was, undoubtedly, fantastic in 2000. But look at his numbers before and after that one great year:

'99: .253 avg, 308 OBP, 374 slg
'01: .258 avg, 331 OBP, 360 slg
'02: .283 avg, 313 OBP, 389 slg
'03: .252 avg, 309 OBP, 333 slg

Rowand's career numbers are .273 avg, .325 OBP, .418 slg. I for one would be very surprised if Erstad (who is often injured because of his balls-out style) approached those kinds of numbers in '04. He's probably a .260, .315, .360 at best. And those are some nasty-bad numbers. Plus, he's cost about $7.5 million more than Rowand. Is his better defense worth his anemic offense and giant contract?

Sink hole.

hold2dibber
01-30-2004, 12:31 PM
Originally posted by FarmerAndy
I'm not impressed with Erstad either. BUT....

*Washburn would be a good addition to the rotation.
*PK + Valentin = $13 Million............... Goodbye.


Uh, yeah, but:

Washburn + Erstad = $13 million

Plus, Erstad has 3 years left, whereas PK only has two (and Jose has just one).

The move actually increases the Sox payroll. I'd absolutely love to have Washburn, but Erstad sucks and he's way over paid. Again, I'd much rather just move Jose fo Washburn.

Man Soo Lee
01-30-2004, 12:31 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
Huh? No he didn't:

Jose vs. righties: .265 avg, .535 SLG, .880 OPS
Frank: .267, .562 SLG, .952 OPS

I was using Frank's stats vs. righties too, not his overall. It probably wasn't a meaningful comparison, but it was just something I noticed when I looked up Jose's splits again.

He's an alright player, but with a $5 Million price tag, moving him would be addition by subtraction.

Not when there isn't a better use of that $5 million right now. Next winter when guys like Cabrera are available is a different story.

SEALgep
01-30-2004, 12:33 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
Well, if the sox are going to get a time machine in the deal and obtain the 2000 version of Erstad, I'm all for it. Otherwise, the guy is the King Of All Sink Holes. He was, undoubtedly, fantastic in 2000. But look at his numbers before and after that one great year:

'99: .253 avg, 308 OBP, 374 slg
'01: .258 avg, 331 OBP, 360 slg
'02: .283 avg, 313 OBP, 389 slg
'03: .252 avg, 309 OBP, 333 slg

Rowand's career numbers are .273 avg, .325 OBP, .418 slg. I for one would be very surprised if Erstad (who is often injured because of his balls-out style) approached those kinds of numbers in '04. He's probably a .260, .315, .360 at best. And those are some nasty-bad numbers. Plus, he's cost about $7.5 million more than Rowand. Is his better defense worth his anemic offense and giant contract?

Sink hole.

I agree Rowand is a better option for all the reasons stated, but I would differ that Erstad is a better center fileder. Erstad is very good, but a lot of people underestimate Rowand's glove. I think he is very good. I like Erstad, but the injuries and contract scare me, I would rather not do it. I still think seeing what the Dodgers are about is our best bet.

JRIG
01-30-2004, 12:35 PM
Originally posted by FarmerAndy
I'm not impressed with Erstad either. BUT....

*Washburn would be a good addition to the rotation.
*PK + Valentin = $13 Million............... Goodbye.


Erstad + Washburn = about $12 million .........Hello!

It's a salary wash on the deal.

maurice
01-30-2004, 01:03 PM
As mentioned by others, Estad can't hit no mo'. He had a Brady Anderson year and is now fantastically overpaid. I wouldn't count on Erstad playing great D for the Sox either. There's been a great deal of speculation that the Angels plan to move Anderson to center and play Erstad at 1B.

Originally posted by hold2dibber
Again, I'd much rather just move Jose fo Washburn.

They'd still need to get at least a backup SS in return. Otherwise you have:

Starting 2B: Harris
Starting SS: Uribe
Backup MIF: Nobody

That makes the Twins crappy MIF look like Whitaker-Trammel. Backup MIF is particularly important when one or more of your starters are fairly likely to bust by the All Star break.

munchman33
01-30-2004, 01:09 PM
This deal gives us a good defensive centerfielder with speed and a great starting pitcher to stick into the 3-hole (which we need desperately).

We lose a little in offensive ability, but our defense up the middle gets SIGNIFICANTLY better with Uribe at short and Erstad in center. Sure Erstad got that extra year more than Konerko, but I'd rather have a sinkhole in center than at first base.

hold2dibber
01-30-2004, 01:34 PM
Originally posted by munchman33
This deal gives us a good defensive centerfielder with speed and a great starting pitcher to stick into the 3-hole (which we need desperately).

We lose a little in offensive ability, but our defense up the middle gets SIGNIFICANTLY better with Uribe at short and Erstad in center. Sure Erstad got that extra year more than Konerko, but I'd rather have a sinkhole in center than at first base.


I think the Sox would lose a lot more than a little offensive ability. PK and Jose combined are, at worst, good for 40 HRs, 120 RBIs and at best 60 HRs and 170 RBIs. The best you could hope for from Uribe and Erstad combined would be 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. Plus, neither of those guys get on base any better than Jose or PK. It would be a huge fall off in offense, IMHO.

jeremyb1
01-30-2004, 02:29 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
I agree with not wanting to take on Erstad because his injuries and contract are a liability, but saying Valentin is vital to our OBP as a team is far off. He hit .233 last year, that's certainly replaceable.

Why are you citing batting average to discuss OBP? Against lefthanded pitching last season (the only time he should ever bat) Jose had a .345 OBP. Uribe's OBP last season was .297 and Erstad's was .309. Even if Jose hit against righties his OBP would be the best in this bunch. This deal would drastically hurt our offense, how's that?

jeremyb1
01-30-2004, 02:32 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
I think the Sox would lose a lot more than a little offensive ability. PK and Jose combined are, at worst, good for 40 HRs, 120 RBIs and at best 60 HRs and 170 RBIs. The best you could hope for from Uribe and Erstad combined would be 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. Plus, neither of those guys get on base any better than Jose or PK. It would be a huge fall off in offense, IMHO.

Here's another way to look at it. Average Erstad and Uribe's career OPS you get .738 compared to .794 compared to Konerko and Valentin. That number is actually probably much worse when you consider how long its been since Erstad has been productive and the fact that Uribe has played half his career games in Coors.

bc2k
01-30-2004, 02:37 PM
I'd like to see Valentin and Konerko for Erstad and Washburn. At the end of last season, I blew up watching this designed power hitting "team" hit popup after popup, swing at the first pitch, and regularly get retired double-digit batters in a row. This team needs a designed overall.

This proposed trade turns the Sox into a dominant defensive team with above average pitching, while still retaining their three biggest power threats! If the Sox can get the Yankees to take Koch's $6.375, as the article suggested, this trade becomes even more desirable.

New manager, new style of play, new type of team = new results. This is the ideal time to make such a change. Beat Minnesota at their own game.

Defensively we upgrade at Left, Center, SS, and downgrade at 1B, while keeping plus defenders Crede and Olivo. I'm sure the pitching staff will see improvement with a better defensive team behind them. If only we had kept Alomar... :angry:

I also think it will be much easier to add a quality bat mid-season as opposed to a quality pitcher.

maurice
01-30-2004, 03:17 PM
Again, even the Angels (http://msn.baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=ana) don't think Erstad belongs in CF anymore:

Manager Mike Scioscia called Darin Erstad on Jan. 11, alerting the Gold Glove center fielder that he would move to first base this season, the Los Angeles Times reported. Erstad said he had "plenty of time" to adjust to the position before the season begins and did not foresee a recurrence of the hamstring trouble that plagued him in 1998, when he split time between first base and the outfield. He sat out most of last season because of a hamstring injury but is healthy now and said he should remain that way so long as the Angels do not juggle him between the infield and outfield.

doublem23
01-30-2004, 03:24 PM
Originally posted by habibharu
what are you talkin about? how is erstad a sinkhole? he batted .355 a couple years ago!

Brady Anderson hit 50 home runs a decade ago... Maybe he's our answer!

ScottyTheSoxFan
01-30-2004, 03:27 PM
we shoulda kept tony g. w/o valentin, uribe is all on his own. that does scare me.

CWSGuy406
01-30-2004, 04:03 PM
I think if you're able to get Koch into this deal along with PK and Valentin and get Weber or another reliever from Anahiem as along with Washburn you do it. That way, you lose about 19 million while taking on around 14 million (if I'm not mistaken).

I think I'd like it just because we're getting Jared Washburn, and he'd be a real good number three. Garland won't be as heavily relied upon and could put up good number as a number four, and then we have open competition for number five. (Scotty S, Diaz, Cotts, Rauch).

jeremyb1
01-30-2004, 06:43 PM
Originally posted by bc2k
I'd like to see Valentin and Konerko for Erstad and Washburn. At the end of last season, I blew up watching this designed power hitting "team" hit popup after popup, swing at the first pitch, and regularly get retired double-digit batters in a row. This team needs a designed overall.

This proposed trade turns the Sox into a dominant defensive team with above average pitching, while still retaining their three biggest power threats! If the Sox can get the Yankees to take Koch's $6.375, as the article suggested, this trade becomes even more desirable.

New manager, new style of play, new type of team = new results. This is the ideal time to make such a change. Beat Minnesota at their own game.

Defensively we upgrade at Left, Center, SS, and downgrade at 1B, while keeping plus defenders Crede and Olivo. I'm sure the pitching staff will see improvement with a better defensive team behind them. If only we had kept Alomar... :angry:

I also think it will be much easier to add a quality bat mid-season as opposed to a quality pitcher.

First of all you're assuming Erstad remains healthy which is far from a sure bet. Next, Valentin is one of the best fielding shortstops in baseball. He's made some errors in the past but he has outstanding range, a good arm, and showed the ability to cut down on his errors last season. If Uribe's better its not by much and you're sacrificing an incredible amount of offense swapping one of the best run producers at SS for a pretty poor one. Like Valentin, advanced measurements of defense indicate Lee is far from the liability many seem to think he is. The defensive upgrade to the outfield isn't anywhere near what one would assume.

Mohoney
01-30-2004, 08:02 PM
I say make the trade, move Frank to 1B, and sign Ellis Burks to DH.

SEALgep
01-30-2004, 08:06 PM
KW was on ESPN 1000 and said these this trade discussion is nonexistent.

Lip Man 1
01-30-2004, 11:39 PM
By the way according to Ozzie's Q & A on White Sox. com, Frank is going to be his DH and play 1st base occasionally.

So Paulie's not going anywhere.

Lip

ND_Sox_Fan
01-31-2004, 12:08 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
By the way according to Ozzie's Q & A on White Sox. com, Frank is going to be his DH and play 1st base occasionally.

So Paulie's not going anywhere.

Lip

I was really starting to get excited that we might have the league's worst closer and the league leader in GIDPs outta here.

Furthermore, why not have Thomas be the starting 1B and Paulie play occasionally??

MisterB
01-31-2004, 02:00 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
By the way according to Ozzie's Q & A on White Sox. com, Frank is going to be his DH and play 1st base occasionally.

So Paulie's not going anywhere.

Lip

Either that or this is the beginning of the Ross Gload era.... :(: