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boog_alou
01-27-2004, 11:05 AM
I made predictions for the Sox and Twins rotations (the Royals don't even deserve consideration for being in the top 2 in this category) and crunched the overall numbers. Feel free to dispute my predictions...I'd be happy to explain how I came to those figures.

White Sox
PITCHER -- IP -- ERA -- OPS against
Loaiza --- 225 - 3.60 - 675
Buehrle -- 230 - 4.10 - 725
Garland -- 200 - 4.45 - 755
Schoeny - 175 - 5.15 - 800
Pool ----- 160 - 5.25 - 800
TOTAL ---- 990 - 4.43 - 745

Twins
PITCHER -- IP -- ERA -- OPS against
Santana - 200 - 3.10 - 640
Radke --- 215 - 4.35 - 750
Lohse ---- 210 - 4.40 - 735
Helling --- 200 - 5.10 - 835
Pool ----- 160 - 5.25 - 800
TOTAL ---- 985 - 4.41 - 750

As you can see, the overall totals for the two rotations are very similar, with the Twins having a slight edge in ERA and the Sox having a slight edge in OPS against. I'd call this race a tie.

[I apologize for the crappy formatting. I am HTML deficient]

SEALgep
01-27-2004, 11:14 AM
The White Sox also got rated on the top 10 of hitters parks. That could play into it, but either way, the Sox have a distinct advantage with their pen in comparison to the Twinkies.

hold2dibber
01-27-2004, 12:06 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
but either way, the Sox have a distinct advantage with their pen in comparison to the Twinkies.

I'm not sure if I agree. Here's the Sox probable pen right now:

Marte
Mr. Zero
Koch
Politte
Wunsch
Ginter
Wright

I feel pretty confident in Marte and Wunsch. Everyone else is a question mark. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of upside there, but if Mr. Zero bombs out, Koch '04 is just like Koch '03 and Politte '04 is just like Politte '03, the Sox will be in big trouble.

Iwritecode
01-27-2004, 12:13 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
I'm not sure if I agree. Here's the Sox probable pen right now:

Marte
Mr. Zero
Koch
Politte
Wunsch
Ginter
Wright

I feel pretty confident in Marte and Wunsch. Everyone else is a question mark. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of upside there, but if Mr. Zero bombs out, Koch '04 is just like Koch '03 and Politte '04 is just like Politte '03, the Sox will be in big trouble.

On the other hand, who do the Twins have in their BP? Any names any of us would recognize? They lost their 3 best guys from last year in Hawkins, Guardado and Lohse (or was it Santana that was in the BP last year?)...

SEALgep
01-27-2004, 12:15 PM
That's certainly true. But that's three people having to not live up to expectations. It could happen, but I think these guys rebound and that Shingo produces. However, the other aspect to my previous point is that Minnesota has done nothing to build up what they lost. Hawkins, Everday Eddie are guys being replaced by prospects. They lost a couple starters as well, including Eric Milton. These guys' production are not easily replaced, especially by people who haven't shown they can. We'll see, I heard they were interested in Urbina, which is still a minor downgrade in my opinion (and only replacing one of them), but it seems remote because of his price demands. The Twins all but had a press conference stating their desire to cut payroll, and certainly not add what Urbina wants. Keep in mind others are interested as well, and the Twins will not get themselves in a bidding war.

Ya, I forgot Lohse and Sanatana's new role (good but a subtraction from the pen nonetheless.)

MarkEdward
01-27-2004, 12:39 PM
Originally posted by Iwritecode
On the other hand, who do the Twins have in their BP? Any names any of us would recognize? They lost their 3 best guys from last year in Hawkins, Guardado and Lohse (or was it Santana that was in the BP last year?)...

Their pen probably won't be good as last year, but I don't think it will be that bad. Here's what I think they'll go with (career ERA+ in parenthesis):
J.C. Romero (99)
Juan Rincon (103)
Carlos Silva (103)
Joe Nathan (102)
Peter Munro (96)
Grant Balfour/Sean Douglass/Brad Thomas/Carlos Pulido
Nathan will probably be the ace of the pen.

Also, the Royals just acquired Jaime Cerda from the Mets. Cerda was dominant in AAA last year (1.67 ERA in 32 innings) but struggled in the majors (5.85 ERA in 32 innings). Not a bad player to take a chance on.

jeremyb1
01-27-2004, 01:09 PM
Originally posted by boog_alou
I made predictions for the Sox and Twins rotations (the Royals don't even deserve consideration for being in the top 2 in this category) and crunched the overall numbers. Feel free to dispute my predictions...I'd be happy to explain how I came to those figures.

White Sox
PITCHER -- IP -- ERA -- OPS against
Loaiza --- 225 - 3.60 - 675
Buehrle -- 230 - 4.10 - 725
Garland -- 200 - 4.45 - 755
Schoeny - 175 - 5.15 - 800
Pool ----- 160 - 5.25 - 800
TOTAL ---- 990 - 4.43 - 745

Twins
PITCHER -- IP -- ERA -- OPS against
Santana - 200 - 3.10 - 640
Radke --- 215 - 4.35 - 750
Lohse ---- 210 - 4.40 - 735
Helling --- 200 - 5.10 - 835
Pool ----- 160 - 5.25 - 800
TOTAL ---- 985 - 4.41 - 750

As you can see, the overall totals for the two rotations are very similar, with the Twins having a slight edge in ERA and the Sox having a slight edge in OPS against. I'd call this race a tie.

[I apologize for the crappy formatting. I am HTML deficient]

I'd probably be more generous with Buehrle and Garland and less generous with Santana, Schoeneweis, Helling, and the two pools. Santana's great but his career ERA is 3.3 as a starter and he's never pitched a full season in the rotation. Buehrle's career ERA is 3.7. Another tough season for him is a possibility but I'm not sure that its a probability.

quade36
01-27-2004, 01:18 PM
don't forget Mike Jackson as a possibility. He could be a very good pickup if he could perform after taking a year off.

ma-gaga
01-27-2004, 03:18 PM
Originally posted by SEALgep
my previous point is that Minnesota has done nothing to build up what they lost. Hawkins, Everday Eddie are guys being replaced by prospects. They lost a couple starters as well, including Eric Milton. These guys' production are not easily replaced

Originally posted by MarkEdward

Their pen probably won't be good as last year, but I don't think it will be that bad.
J.C. Romero (99)
Juan Rincon (103)
Carlos Silva (103)
Joe Nathan (102)
Peter Munro (96)


Just to elaborate. I think MarkEdward is correct. The pen won't be as good as the last two years. LeTroy Hawkins must have made a deal with the devil after 2001... They have some live arms in the pen to work with though.

Santana getting 200 innings is a pretty good leap in production.
The starters the Twins got rid of last year were: Joe Mays, Rick Reed, Kenny Rogers, and Eric Milton. Kenny Rogers was a good pickup for the Twins. He'll be tough to replace.

The rest of that crew:
a. sucked
b. were injured

I mean, here's the combined line:

15-W, 20-L, 5.49 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, ERA+ = 84.
Terrible. I don't know how they got 15 wins. So, the Twins have to replace THAT, minus whatever extra Santana gives them.

I don't know if EITHER team has a clear advantage pitching wise. The Twins have 3 legitimate starters, and so do the W.Sox... After that it's a crapshoot.

I think the pens are even. If the Sox got rid of Koch, I'd give them an advantage. He handicaps the rest of the team.

munchman33
01-27-2004, 04:45 PM
I think the rotations and the bullpens will be a wash. It'll come down to offense and defense. I think our advantage in offense is more significant than their advantage in defense, as our defense continues to improve (at least something is).

ma-gaga
01-27-2004, 05:30 PM
Originally posted by munchman33
I think our advantage in offense is more significant than their advantage in defense, as our defense continues to improve (at least something is).

I don't know about that. The W.Sox have 3 outstanding hitters (Thomas, Maggs, Lee), 2 average hitters (Valentine, Konerko) and 4 sinkholes (Crede, Olivo, Uribe, Rowand).

The Twins have 5 *SLIGHTLY ABOVE* average hitters (Stewart, Hunter, Jones, Mientkiewicz, and Koskie) 2 average (Guzman, LeCroy) and 2 sinkholes (Mauer, Rivas).

I'm being generous with Konerko, he's too good to be labled a 'sinkhole', and I'm a little hard on Crede, he should get better. The vaunted Sox offense really stagnated last year for the first 3 months. They picked up in July, but I was SHOCKED at how badly the Sox hit the ball early last year.

If two of those last four players for the Sox hit the ball they'll be tough to beat. If they continue 'sucking', and if Konerko falls out of average, the W.Sox offense will be reduced to however many runs the terror of Maggs/Lee/Thomas can produce. It seems like the overall balance of the Twins can outscore the W.Sox.

rip away.

*edited in*

Iwritecode
01-27-2004, 05:46 PM
Originally posted by ma-gaga
I don't know about that. The W.Sox have 3 outstanding hitters (Thomas, Maggs, Lee), 2 average hitters (Valentine, Konerko) and 4 sinkholes (Crede, Olivo, Uribe, Rowand).

The Twins have 5 average hitters (Stewart, Hunter, Jones, Mientkiewicz, and Koskie) 2 average (Guzman, LeCroy) and 2 sinkholes (Mauer, Rivas).

I'm being generous with Konerko, he's too good to be labled a 'sinkhole', and I'm a little hard on Crede, he should get better. The vaunted Sox offense really stagnated last year for the first 3 months. They picked up in July, but I was SHOCKED at how badly the Sox hit the ball early last year.

If two of those last four players for the Sox hit the ball they'll be tough to beat. If they continue 'sucking', and if Konerko falls out of average, the vaunted W.Sox offense will be reduced to however many runs the terror of Maggs/Lee/Thomas can produce. It seems like the overall balance of the Twins can outscore the W.Sox.

rip away.

the twins have 5 average, 2 average and 2 sinkholes? A little typo there? :D:

I more or less agree with your assesment though. Just replace Uribe with Harris as one of the sinkholes.

Overall, the Sox have more power, but have always had a problem manufacturing runs. They can get a lot of 8 or 9 run games, but then the next day only get 1 or 2 runs.

That has been the biggest difference the past couple of years...

Foulke You
01-27-2004, 05:51 PM
Originally posted by ma-gaga
I don't know about that. The W.Sox have 3 outstanding hitters (Thomas, Maggs, Lee), 2 average hitters (Valentine, Konerko) and 4 sinkholes (Crede, Olivo, Uribe, Rowand).

The Twins have 5 average hitters (Stewart, Hunter, Jones, Mientkiewicz, and Koskie) 2 average (Guzman, LeCroy) and 2 sinkholes (Mauer, Rivas).

I'm being generous with Konerko, he's too good to be labled a 'sinkhole', and I'm a little hard on Crede, he should get better. The vaunted Sox offense really stagnated last year for the first 3 months. They picked up in July, but I was SHOCKED at how badly the Sox hit the ball early last year.

If two of those last four players for the Sox hit the ball they'll be tough to beat. If they continue 'sucking', and if Konerko falls out of average, the vaunted W.Sox offense will be reduced to however many runs the terror of Maggs/Lee/Thomas can produce. It seems like the overall balance of the Twins can outscore the W.Sox.

rip away.

I can't disagree with your above comments. I think the success of the Sox lineup will depend on Konerko getting back into that "good hitter" column and Crede improving. I think we all expected more than a .261 19HR 75RBI out of him. While those numbers aren't horrible, they aren't great either and most of those numbers were piled on in the second half. If Konerko and Crede turn it up a notch in 2004, we should be a formidable team in the AL Central.

I too was dumbfounded by our lack of hitting in the first half of the season. There were too many good hitters in that lineup for them to be hitting that poorly. It was amazing we got back in the race after the hole we dug. Thank God for Esteban Loaiza.

Another intangible (and I might get flamed for this) is that the Twins are getting new turf in the Metrodome this year. I think this benefits the road team more than the home teams. The Twins have built their team to thrive in the dome with speed and some pesky contact hitters. White Sox followers know all too well about the Twins success in the Dome. The new turf is going to be thicker and should provide more grass like qualities to the Baggy Dome. Perhaps this has an adverse effect on the Twins as they lose one factor of their home field advantage? Perhaps it negatively effects their offensive production at home as some of those turf hits get fielded? I guess we'll have to see what happens in '04. I'd like a Minny fan's take on this.

Bisco Stu
01-28-2004, 02:32 AM
Intangibles, give the Sox the edge. Burly and Garland have more to prove/motivation than any of the Twins' pitchers.

pearso66
01-28-2004, 01:21 PM
The new turf should give an upgrade to the visiting team, but you always have to give the advantage to the home team. They still have speed to get to hte gaps while our OF isn't near as quick as theirs. But this should help the Sox win a few more up in minny than the past few years.

hold2dibber
01-28-2004, 02:35 PM
Originally posted by ma-gaga
I don't know about that. The W.Sox have 3 outstanding hitters (Thomas, Maggs, Lee), 2 average hitters (Valentine, Konerko) and 4 sinkholes (Crede, Olivo, Uribe, Rowand).

The Twins have 5 *SLIGHTLY ABOVE* average hitters (Stewart, Hunter, Jones, Mientkiewicz, and Koskie) 2 average (Guzman, LeCroy) and 2 sinkholes (Mauer, Rivas).

I'm being generous with Konerko, he's too good to be labled a 'sinkhole', and I'm a little hard on Crede, he should get better. The vaunted Sox offense really stagnated last year for the first 3 months. They picked up in July, but I was SHOCKED at how badly the Sox hit the ball early last year.

If two of those last four players for the Sox hit the ball they'll be tough to beat. If they continue 'sucking', and if Konerko falls out of average, the W.Sox offense will be reduced to however many runs the terror of Maggs/Lee/Thomas can produce. It seems like the overall balance of the Twins can outscore the W.Sox.

rip away.

*edited in*

I don't necessarily agree with your overall assessment, but I think you've missed the boat to some extent on some of the individuals. Somehow, Guzman (with his career .302 OBP, .382 SLG and .684 OPS) is "average" but Crede (307/444/751) and Rowand (325/418/743) are "sink holes". Crede and Rowand are quite similar to LeCroy (317/457/774), who you rate as average.