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Paulwny
09-05-2001, 07:03 AM
Some claim that Clayton would have more errors if it weren't for liberal scoring. Others claim that Valentin's errors didn't cost us many games last year. Aren't these the same scorers as last year? If they are liberal with Clayton, then they were probably liberal with Valentin last year. Was there any truth to a broadcast I listened to last year where the out of town announcer said after a Valentin boot, "Wow, they ruled that a hit. Rumor has it that sox management has asked home town scorers to take it easy on Valentin because they don't want him to set a record for errors at ss".
If any of the above is true then "hits" given when Clayton misplays a ball or when Valentine misplayed a ball last year make the errors to lost games argument flawed. The true number of errors is flawed and no one knows how many games were lost due to this type of "hit".
Also the question of dp's this year vs. last year. Let's give a GREAT DEAL of credit to a VETERAN pitching staff last year that were able to get batters to hit ground balls. I guess the yankmes blame Tino Martinez because Andy Pettite's pick-offs are down this year.
We need Valentin's bat, maybe he should be at 2nd.
All I really know is that defensively, neither Clayton or Valentine would be allowed to shine Aparicio's spikes.

LongDistanceFan
09-05-2001, 07:40 AM
Originally posted by Paulwny
Some claim that Clayton would have more errors if it weren't for liberal scoring. Others claim that Valentin's errors didn't cost us many games last year. Aren't these the same scorers as last year? If they are liberal with Clayton, then they were probably liberal with Valentin last year. Was there any truth to a broadcast I listened to last year where the out of town announcer said after a Valentin boot, "Wow, they ruled that a hit. Rumor has it that sox management has asked home town scorers to take it easy on Valentin because they don't want him to set a record for errors at ss".
If any of the above is true then "hits" given when Clayton misplays a ball or when Valentine misplayed a ball last year make the errors to lost games argument flawed. The true number of errors is flawed and no one knows how many games were lost due to this type of "hit".
Also the question of dp's this year vs. last year. Let's give a GREAT DEAL of credit to a VETERAN pitching staff last year that were able to get batters to hit ground balls. I guess the yankmes blame Tino Martinez because Andy Pettite's pick-offs are down this year.
We need Valentin's bat, maybe he should be at 2nd.
All I really know is that defensively, neither Clayton or Valentine would be allowed to shine Aparicio's spikes. What you say, if true may be valid and a good point. But jose has done more, regardless of the error than clayton. Lets forgot about his recent success.

Next point i find it hard to believe that any one from a sox organization can have the official scorer change or to take it easy on jose. Are they not the league official scorers? I remember last yr that a player went to the scorer to change his error to a hit, but couldn't. If what you say is true, the official scorer would've gladly change it.

Paulwny
09-05-2001, 07:50 AM
Next point i find it hard to believe that any one from a sox organization can have the official scorer change or to take it easy on jose. Are they not the league official scorers? I remember last yr that a player went to the scorer to change his error to a hit, but couldn't. If what you say is true, the official scorer would've gladly change it. [/B][/QUOTE]


Unless things have changed, scorers are local sports writers hired by the team. There are usually more then 2 and they rotate as they see fit.

Tragg
09-05-2001, 08:06 AM
Let's throw another error-man into the mix.

What about Konerko? I haven't seen the stats, but it seems to me that he has had several costly boots. Man, if we let C Lee play some first, we can begin some konerko/lee defensive comparisons to go with the offensive ones.

Pete Ward
09-05-2001, 08:52 AM
You guys are looking at this all wrong. The SS position has been argued all year. Is Jose that bad? Is Royce that good?

Its not a question a analyzing errors and reviewing if the error led to a run or not. I have seen this argument many times trying to justify Jose's defense. This argument does nothing to help a young pitching staff.

The defense affects PITCH COUNT! Extra pitches increase arm wear. Extra pitches game in and game out build up excessive wear over a year. Errors make pitchers have to throw more pitches to the next batters. This increase in work load builds up forcing the manager to go to his pen quicker. How many pitchers work more than 100-110 pitchers before the manager goes to the pen? Your defense can decide if you are going to the bullpen in the 5th or the 7th inning.

Im not only talking about errors. Im talking about not being able to make the routine play that goes as a hit, or the failure to turn the DP. Watch the next game. Tell me how many extra pitches are thrown becuase of poor defense. I'd bet that there are at least 10 extra pitches thrown by the starter before the end of the 6th. 10 extra pitches times 30 starts = 300 extra pitches a year. Im being very conservative.

Im not saying Jose is better than Royce or vice versa. In the A.L. I think you play softball and need hitting. Pitching and Hitting win in the A.L. Defense doesnt seem as important in the A.L. with smaller parks and musclemen.

Increased pitch counts build through a game and a season to wear down pitchers, increasing injuries, decreasing effectiveness.

There was a great article in the Daily Herald on this at the start of the season by Rozner.

Paulwny
09-05-2001, 08:59 AM
Originally posted by Pete Ward




The defense affects PITCH COUNT! Extra pitches increase arm wear. Extra pitches game in and game out build up excessive wear over a year. Errors make pitchers have to throw more pitches to the next batters. This increase in work load builds up forcing the manager to go to his pen quicker. How many pitchers work more than 100-110 pitchers before the manager goes to the pen? Your defense can decide if you are going to the bullpen in the 5th or the 7th inning.

Im not only talking about errors. Im talking about not being able to make the routine play that goes as a hit, or the failure to turn the DP. Watch the next game. Tell me how many extra pitches are thrown becuase of poor defense. I'd bet that there are at least 10 extra pitches thrown by the starter before the end of the 6th. 10 extra pitches times 30 starts = 300 extra pitches a year. Im being very conservative. . [/B]



I totally agree, I was addressing the argument that many claim that Valentin's errors didn't cost us many games last year. The wear and tear on the pitching staff is huge when pitchers don't get out of an inning due to errors.

voodoochile
09-05-2001, 10:16 AM
ummmm... doesn't the decrease in DP's turned (will be 50 less this year) also affect pitch count? While some of that is attributable to the difference in pitchers, some of it has to be squarely laid at the feet of the guys who are involved in the most DP's, the SS and 2B.

Last year Valentin was involved in 118 DP's turned in 141 games
This year Clayton so far has turned 57 in 112 games.

That means if thing continue Clayton will end up around 70 DPs turned in the same number games.

Also... back to the other side of the question... offense. Isn't it easer for a pitcher to pitch with the lead? isn't it less stressful? Less taxing on the body and mind? If the answer to those questions is "yes", then the comparison isn't even close. Jose's OPS is almost 200 points higher than Claytons.

Let's go one step further and talk about attitude. clayton seems to think he deserves to play every day regardless of whether he is hitting. Manos just wants to play and has done everything and anything the team has asked him to do this year.

I also find Clayton's recent surge suspicious coming on the heels of KW's "no confidence vote" of a week ago. Maybe he should have been concentrating and playing this hard in April and I would have more confidence in him, but a complacent Royce scares me and should scare every one of the WSI posters, IMO...

AnnaKfan
09-05-2001, 12:43 PM
Originally posted by Paulwny
[B]The true number of errors is flawed and no one knows how many games were lost due to this type of "hit".[/i]

That's the best reason yet not to use errors as a measure of a player's defensive value. It's way too subjective. What's an error? Whatever the official scorer thinks it is. No thanks.

Name me one other stat where Clayton is superior to Valentin? I don't know of a single one.

Paulwny
09-05-2001, 12:58 PM
[QUOTE]Originally posted by AnnaKfan


That's the best reason yet not to use errors as a measure of a player's defensive value. It's way too subjective. What's an error? Whatever the official scorer thinks it is. No thanks.

Name me one other stat where Clayton is superior to Valentin? I don't know of a single one. [/QUOT

I'm not saying Clayton is superior to Valentin, all I'm saying is you can't use the argument that Valentin's errors didn't really hurt the team last year. Same with Clayton this year if errors were scored as hits. Please read my post again.

AnnaKfan
09-05-2001, 01:11 PM
Originally posted by Pete Ward
The defense affects PITCH COUNT! Extra pitches increase arm wear. Extra pitches game in and game out build up excessive wear over a year. Errors make pitchers have to throw more pitches to the next batters.

What's the fastest way to get two outs? Double-plays, of course. Here's yet another stat where Valentin is superior to Clayton. I guarantee the pitchers are throwing at least as many pitches when Clayton is missing double-play opportunities than when Valentin commits an error. Hell, most of those balls Clayton doesn't even reach! How does allowing more base hits at shortstop translate into lower pitch count?

Clayton sucks.


Im not only talking about errors. Im talking about not being able to make the routine play that goes as a hit, or the failure to turn the DP. Watch the next game. Tell me how many extra pitches are thrown becuase of poor defense?

I don't know, but Valentin is superior to Clayton in every defensive measure except the one that is most subjective: errors committed. If anyone is putting a strain on the pitching staff, it's Clayton.

Increased pitch counts build through a game and a season to wear down pitchers, increasing injuries, decreasing effectiveness.

I'm not sure what the Sox pitchers think about Valentin this year, but I know what they said publicly about him last year. Parque was so happy, be compared Valentin vs. Caruso as the difference between having a man and a boy playing shortstop.

Funny, I haven't heard any of the Sox pitchers come out publicly this year about how wonderful it is to have Royce Clayton playing shortstop vs. Valentin. Why is that?

Maybe it's because the pitchers are more intelligent than the Royce supporters give them credit for.

Soxboyrob
09-05-2001, 01:26 PM
Originally posted by Paulwny
[B
I'm not saying Clayton is superior to Valentin, all I'm saying is you can't use the argument that Valentin's errors didn't really hurt the team last year. Same with Clayton this year if errors were scored as hits. Please read my post again. [/B]

This strikes me as fairly convenient use of statistics. The fact that none of the errors really cost us a whole lot is partially due to the fact that our team scored 6 runs per game. I particularly remember a 2000 game when we had a 7 run lead vs. the A's and Jose booted grounder after grounder until we had to fight, scratch and claw to win the game by a score of approximately 8-6 or 9-7.

Consider this....what if Valentin had played SS all of this season and made 36 errors, while our team was scoring an average of 4.5-5.0 runs per game? I have a sneaking suspicion we'd be able to point to several errors that cost us games. I tend to believe that fans would be nowhere near as enamored w/ him as they have been and currently are.

Jose's easily my favorite player, but the fact remains that Clayton's got a higher career fielding pct, higher career Zone rating and higher career Range Factor than Jose. Jose has surpassed Clayton in Range Factor over the past few years, while Clayton has kept a lead in Zone Rating and fielding pctg.

The thing that so infuriates me is Jose's butchery of the routine plays. It's the same reason we get all over Durham...he screws up things he shouldn't. Otherwise, Durham consistently is in the top 5 in run production for leadoff hitters. Those arguing for the keeping of Valentin ought to also be wanting to keep Durham.

Clayton is probably at the beginning of the downside of his career(defensively, anyway). He's nowhere near the biggest problem that the Sox have going into next season. Valentin has shown he can't be relied upon to stay healthy, so we can't just make him the SS and dump Clayton anyway. Not to mention, Clayton HAS BEEN OUR MOST CONSISTENT HITTER FOR 3 MONTHS NOW.

The Sox need to find a way to keep both of these guys and make the best of both their presence on the club. $4.5M per year is nowhere near a lot of money for a SS that provides consistent and quality defense and decent hitting.

Dadawg_77
09-05-2001, 01:59 PM
Originally posted by Soxboyrob

Jose's easily my favorite player, but the fact remains that Clayton's got a higher career fielding pct, higher career Zone rating and higher career Range Factor than Jose. Jose has surpassed Clayton in Range Factor over the past few years, while Clayton has kept a lead in Zone Rating and fielding pctg.


If we aren't looking at amount of errors since the stat is to subjective, then we can't look at Fielding percentage((PO +Asst)-E/(PO + Asst + E)). Since amount of error are used in calcing the fielding percentage, it is a flawed stat. Jose has a higher carreer at SS range factor by about 100 points. The Clayton is about .951 and Jose has around .921 zone rating. See the post "jose may not be as bad as everyone thinks he is" for the actuall numbers. Soxboy or anyone else, do you know how Zone Rating is measured? I can't find the equation for it anywhere. Questions I have what is a zone? Is it the same for everyone at SS or does everyone have a different one? Also , another stat Jose creates more outs (PO + Asst) per inning then Clayton does.



The thing that so infuriates me is Jose's butchery of the routine plays. It's the same reason we get all over Durham...he screws up things he shouldn't. Otherwise, Durham consistently is in the top 5 in run production for leadoff hitters. Those arguing for the keeping of Valentin ought to also be wanting to keep Durham.

Clayton is probably at the beginning of the downside of his career(defensively, anyway). He's nowhere near the biggest problem that the Sox have going into next season. Valentin has shown he can't be relied upon to stay healthy, so we can't just make him the SS and dump Clayton anyway. Not to mention, Clayton HAS BEEN OUR MOST CONSISTENT HITTER FOR 3 MONTHS NOW.

The Sox need to find a way to keep both of these guys and make the best of both their presence on the club. $4.5M per year is nowhere near a lot of money for a SS that provides consistent and quality defense and decent hitting.

The scouting reports have it that Jose has mental laspes once in while, usally when the game is out of line. Jose's errors went down as the season progressed last year, not sure if this was because the OS was kinder or he kept his head in the game more often. We all can agree Jose isn't a 3rd baseman and needs to go some where. He has played 19 innings during his career at second, but that means no Ray Ray.

Why is it that once our playoff dreams are sitting in a whole that six feet deep, Royce starts to hit. I hate players like that.

Soxboyrob
09-05-2001, 02:04 PM
Zone Rating = Outs Created/Chances