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duke of dorwood
01-11-2004, 01:44 PM
From P Rogers on Sunday

" It's telling how badly the Sox's talent drain has been--and how little they have done to address it compared with other teams.

With pitchers who won only 62 games in 2003 under their control, the Sox rank below all but four American League teams--Detroit (51), Texas (49), Cleveland (46) and Baltimore (30). Even Tampa Bay has built a staff with more victories (65)."

Brian26
01-11-2004, 01:56 PM
I read that this morning also. It's a deceiving stat because Phil is removing Flash, Colon, and Sullivan's win totals from last year, but he's not replacing them with anything. He's assuming that the guys replacing those 3 pitchers will get zero wins. Obviously that's not true. Even if Wright, Rauch and Cliff end up taking those 3 spots, I'd think we can assume they'd somehow manage to scrounge up at least 12 wins between them all....so boom, the Sox already leapfrog past all of those other teams in the worst case scenario.

JRIG
01-11-2004, 02:26 PM
Let's also remember Phil is the guy last year who came up with the "4 pitchers returning with over 30 starts" theory.

ondafarm
01-11-2004, 02:48 PM
Originally posted by Brian26
I read that this morning also. It's a deceiving stat because Phil is removing Flash, Colon, and Sullivan's win totals from last year, but he's not replacing them with anything. He's assuming that the guys replacing those 3 pitchers will get zero wins. Obviously that's not true. Even if Wright, Rauch and Cliff end up taking those 3 spots, I'd think we can assume they'd somehow manage to scrounge up at least 12 wins between them all....so boom, the Sox already leapfrog past all of those other teams in the worst case scenario.

You're missreading the article. Phil is removing Flash, Colon and Sullivan's wins because they are gone from the Sox. He's not predicting zero wins among their replacements, just that the replacements had nearly zero wins last year. Past success is an importnat predictor of future success, but not the only one. I personally think Wright will come back fine, but thats only my opinion, we'll see if he has his mojo back in ST.

SoxxoS
01-11-2004, 02:53 PM
Danny Wright proved to all of us last year that he is NOT capable of being a starter in the major leagues. As far as I am concerned, he is a fringe bullpen guy. I have not seen any of this potential everyone speaks of since his rookie year. He is wildly inconsistant, doesn't throw that 97 mph heater he was supposed to have, and his change up doesn't really change anything up. And he can't throw his curveball for strikes. If he is in the rotation, we won't win 80 games. Write that down.

duke of dorwood
01-11-2004, 02:56 PM
Wins aside-we lost a ton of innings our weakened bullpen was NOT in last year.

jeremyb1
01-11-2004, 04:52 PM
Rogers' statistical analysis is pretty weak here. He's relying entirely upon wins, a statistic that is quite worthless. For instance, just look at the fact that as stated earlier in the thread Wright won 14 games a year ago. Last year he was replaced with Loiza who had fewer wins the season before but was a huge upgrade. Now, I'm not saying we're going to find a replacement that outproduces Colon but measuring the impact of losing these three pitchers and Gordon and Sullivan, two relievers, in particularly by measuring wins is pointless.

jeremyb1
01-11-2004, 04:54 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Danny Wright proved to all of us last year that he is NOT capable of being a starter in the major leagues. As far as I am concerned, he is a fringe bullpen guy. I have not seen any of this potential everyone speaks of since his rookie year. He is wildly inconsistant, doesn't throw that 97 mph heater he was supposed to have, and his change up doesn't really change anything up. And he can't throw his curveball for strikes. If he is in the rotation, we won't win 80 games. Write that down.

Wright might throw 97 if we let him work as a middle reliever. I could see him dominating by taking a new mental approach out of the pen and focusing on simply throwing his fastball really hard and using his curve as an out pitch.

JRIG
01-11-2004, 05:13 PM
To me, this line of argument is similar to saying a team has lost a lot of at bats when they have starting hitters depart.

Somebody is going to get those at bats the next season, no matter what. The Sox are probably going to win at least 75 games next season. Somebody is going to get those wins.

It would make more sense to argue the Sox have lost pitchers with good ERA, or even the Sox have lost a lot of innings, if you want to say the staff will be inexperienced. But of all the stats a pitcher actually has control over, wins are right near the bottom.

lowesox
01-11-2004, 05:21 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Wright might throw 97 if we let him work as a middle reliever. I could see him dominating by taking a new mental approach out of the pen and focusing on simply throwing his fastball really hard and using his curve as an out pitch.

I know I'll get roasted for saying this but, I think Wright has what it takes to be a good closer. Maybe as soon as this season.

doublem23
01-11-2004, 05:26 PM
Most pointless stat ever.

munchman33
01-11-2004, 05:27 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Danny Wright proved to all of us last year that he is NOT capable of being a starter in the major leagues. As far as I am concerned, he is a fringe bullpen guy. I have not seen any of this potential everyone speaks of since his rookie year. He is wildly inconsistant, doesn't throw that 97 mph heater he was supposed to have, and his change up doesn't really change anything up. And he can't throw his curveball for strikes. If he is in the rotation, we won't win 80 games. Write that down.

Why does everyone forget that Wright had a shoulder injury going in to last year? Give the guy a chance to rebound.

jeremyb1
01-11-2004, 05:27 PM
Originally posted by lowesox
I know I'll get roasted for saying this but, I think Wright has what it takes to be a good closer. Maybe as soon as this season.

I'm with you. I feel like his largest problem is that he has mental problems that hurt his ability to successfully repeat good mechanics. He seemed much more effective when he came out of the pen last season and may have even commented IIRC about feeling less pressure. By coming out of the pen, you don't have days to contemplate your next start, put too much pressure on yourself, and overthink things. In addition to any mental benefits, almost any pitcher - especially a hard throwing one - is going to benefit from being able to let loose in short stints as opposed to starting.

JRIG
01-11-2004, 05:28 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
Most pointless stat ever.

I still think last year's stat of starters with more than 30 starts returning to a team is more pointless, but just by a hair.

Hangar18
01-11-2004, 09:43 PM
I read this over breakfast today.....
TOTALLY DEPRESSING, and something we've known around
here for a while now.....We will go nowhere this year.
You would think this team would learn from its previous
and foolish attempts at trying to cheap their way thru season with inexperienced pitching. 22 years and counting ......

Hangar18
01-11-2004, 09:46 PM
Originally posted by JRIG
Let's also remember Phil is the guy last year who came up with the "4 pitchers returning with over 30 starts" theory.

theres nothing wrong with that Theory. if anyone remembers, our pitching kept us in a ton of gms, GAMES WE SHOULDVE WON.
but our Hitting and our Stupid Managers Slow Reaction to our Hitting COST US THE DIVISION. Koch gets honorable mention

ondafarm
01-11-2004, 09:52 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Danny Wright proved to all of us last year that he is NOT capable of being a starter in the major leagues. As far as I am concerned, he is a fringe bullpen guy. I have not seen any of this potential everyone speaks of since his rookie year. He is wildly inconsistant, doesn't throw that 97 mph heater he was supposed to have, and his change up doesn't really change anything up. And he can't throw his curveball for strikes. If he is in the rotation, we won't win 80 games. Write that down.

You've only seen him at the major league level. I have seen him pitch at AAA quite a bit where he is very dominant. He threw his 97 mph fastball consistently, his change-up was devastating and his curve was unhittable. He sat the Indianapolis Indians down 9 in a row on 29 pitches, striking out 5. He has the stuff and can bring it, he was lacking confidence last year in MLB and a good manager (not Jerry Manuel) would have had him winning 15 games. Can Ozzie do that, I don't know.

Man Soo Lee
01-12-2004, 04:58 AM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Wright might throw 97 if we let him work as a middle reliever. I could see him dominating by taking a new mental approach out of the pen and focusing on simply throwing his fastball really hard and using his curve as an out pitch.

What would the other statheads think of this kind of scouting projection? :D:

Starter or reliever, Wright better smooth out his delivery or start breathing through his eyelids if he's going to throw strikes consistently.