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34 Inch Stick
01-07-2004, 05:35 PM
If we are truly done picking up FA and this is our team, who is going to be our lead off man. Rowand and Harris strike out too much and have low OBP. No one else has the speed that you would like at the position.

I don't see how Kenny can accept the budget he has been given, knowing that 10 million more would get him a division championship.

TheRockinMT
01-07-2004, 05:45 PM
I think we will see Willie Harris playing 2B and leading off in '04.

Tekijawa
01-07-2004, 05:52 PM
I pick Konerko, it would catch the other team off guard and they wouldn't know what to do...

OEO Magglio
01-07-2004, 05:53 PM
Frank Thomas , I mean he did bat second a couple games last year, so why not leadoff?

Hangar18
01-07-2004, 05:56 PM
Ray Durham [COLOR=teal] Hes got speed to burn,
can hit for average, and is our best bet yet...... oh wait,
we traded him didnt we? :angry:

Foulke You
01-07-2004, 05:57 PM
Originally posted by TheRockinMT
I think we will see Willie Harris playing 2B and leading off in '04.

I agree. His tremendous speed dictates that he will be the leadoff man. If he can learn to bunt to get on base, with his speed he can be quite valuable.

Often times, when complaining about management we forget to look at the good things our players have to offer. Willie Harris has great speed. I would say he is probably a step or two faster than Ray Durham. If the guy learns how to bunt and learn to work a walk, he can be a good leadoff man.

Right now, he is all we have. I don't see anyone else who fits the "leadoff man" mold. Jose Valentin K's too much and is too much of a power threat to lead off the game, Rowand K's too much and doesn't have the great speed that Harris has. Lee, Thomas, Ordonez, Konerko are all middle of the order guys and Crede and Olivo certainly aren't going to lead off. That leaves Wee Willie or maybe Uribe if he gets into the lineup.

IOWA SOXMAN
01-07-2004, 05:57 PM
Konerko is not a bad idea for leading off. It would improve his GIDP numbers.

WhiteSoxWinner
01-07-2004, 05:58 PM
I think that Kenny Lofton should lead off. He may not have the speed of his youth, but he definitely understands the role of the leadoff hitter. With him at the top of our lineup...oh wait. We traded him, too.

RKMeibalane
01-07-2004, 05:59 PM
Originally posted by OEO Magglio
Frank Thomas , I mean he did bat second a couple games last year, so why not leadoff?

Frank is probably the best person for the job, as crazy as that sounds. He's only one who can get on base forty percent of the time.

What a sad organization we have here.

The way I see it, the Opening Day Lineup will look like this:

2B- Harris
LF- Lee
1B- Thomas
RF- Ordonez
SS- Valentin
DH- Konerko
3B- Crede
CF- Rowand
C- Alomar

Unless Harris starts to do something with the bat, it could be a long season on the South Side.

washington
01-07-2004, 06:58 PM
Sox are in sad, sad shape if Willie Harris is their leadoff man

mdep524
01-07-2004, 07:03 PM
Originally posted by IOWA SOXMAN
Konerko is not a bad idea for leading off. It would improve his GIDP numbers.

Hilarious!!!!

Lip Man 1
01-07-2004, 07:05 PM
34 Inch Says:

I don't see how Kenny can accept the budget he has been given, knowing that 10 million more would get him a division championship.

What choice does Kenny have? He knew the way Uncle Jerry operates when he took the position. He has two choices....shut up and accept it or quit.

Lip

joecrede
01-07-2004, 07:13 PM
Originally posted by 34 Inch Stick
If we are truly done picking up FA and this is our team, who is going to be our lead off man. Rowand and Harris strike out too much and have low OBP. No one else has the speed that you would like at the position.

I don't see how Kenny can accept the budget he has been given, knowing that 10 million more would get him a division championship.

Reed should lead-off and play center.

Williams would have had more than $10M had he not decided Koch and Konerko were worth $15M combined.

A. Cavatica
01-07-2004, 10:06 PM
I agree, they're going to have to make room for Reed.

Daver
01-07-2004, 10:09 PM
Originally posted by A. Cavatica
I agree, they're going to have to make room for Reed.

Great idea,turn him into this decades version of Mike Caruso.

jeremyb1
01-07-2004, 10:15 PM
I agree Reed is probably the best candidate we have in the organization. If he just hits .250 he'll probably get on base more than Rowand or Harris. I'm not sure Harris is as bad a candidate as many people think however. He had a solid walk rate in the minors and an outstanding walk rate in AAA last season. If he takes some pitches and hits a little he might be acceptable.

ondafarm
01-07-2004, 10:20 PM
Originally posted by Foulke You
I agree. His tremendous speed dictates that he will be the leadoff man. If he can learn to bunt to get on base, with his speed he can be quite valuable.

Often times, when complaining about management we forget to look at the good things our players have to offer. Willie Harris has great speed. I would say he is probably a step or two faster than Ray Durham. If the guy learns how to bunt and learn to work a walk, he can be a good leadoff man.
I saw Harris play a lot of games in Charlotte. He often led off. He can definately bunt for a hit. Actually, when he wasn't sitting on the bench in Chicago, Harris looked like an All-Star at AAA. He hit homers there too.

A. Cavatica
01-07-2004, 10:23 PM
Originally posted by Daver
[about Reed] Great idea,turn him into this decades version of Mike Caruso.

There's no comparison. Reed was minor league player of the year according to some writers, after batting .370+ with power, speed, and strike zone judgment between high A and AA.

Caruso had a fair season in A ball.

jeremyb1
01-07-2004, 10:31 PM
Originally posted by Daver
Great idea,turn him into this decades version of Mike Caruso.

Mike Caruso at the time of his callup:

Age: 21
1996 (Low A): .292 AVG .326 OBP .359 SLG
1997 (High A): .310 AVG .359 OBP .416 SLG

Jeremy Reed at present:

Age: 22
2002 (Low A): .319 AVG .377 OBP .448 SLG
2003 (High A): .333 AVG .431 OBP .477 SLG
2003 (AA): .409 AVG .474 OBP .591 SLG

Are you seriously trying to argue that those are two players at similarly stages in their development? Caruso had never played a game above A ball when he was promoted to the big leagues while Reed posted a 1.065 OPS in 271 plate apperances at AA last season.

Daver
01-07-2004, 10:35 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Mike Caruso at the time of his callup:

Age: 21
1996 (Low A): .292 AVG .326 OBP .359 SLG
1997 (High A): .310 AVG .359 OBP .416 SLG

Jeremy Reed at present:

Age: 22
2002 (Low A): .319 AVG .377 OBP .448 SLG
2003 (High A): .333 AVG .431 OBP .477 SLG
2003 (AA): .409 AVG .474 OBP .591 SLG

Are you seriously trying to argue that those are two players at similarly stages in their development? Caruso had never played a game above A ball when he was promoted to the big leagues while Reed posted a 1.065 OPS in 271 plate apperances at AA last season.


Stat heads crack me up.

Reed is ready based on 40 games played at AA because his numbers were good.

There is a lot more to player development than looking at numbers folks.

joecrede
01-07-2004, 10:41 PM
The last two years Reed has 674 minor league AB's. Robin Ventura has 486 career minor league AB's and that's counting his rehab stint after breaking his ankle.

joecrede
01-07-2004, 10:44 PM
Originally posted by Daver
There is a lot more to player development than looking at numbers folks.

Such as?

A. Cavatica
01-07-2004, 10:51 PM
Originally posted by Daver
Stat heads crack me up.

Reed is ready based on 40 games played at AA because his numbers were good.

There is a lot more to player development than looking at numbers folks.

What other criteria do you want to use?

At-bats? Lots of players come up with fewer, and succeed.
Age? Lots of players come up at his age or younger. He played college ball, he's no teenager.
Experience in pressure situations? He played in the Southern League playoffs, and with the Olympic team.

If the Sox left him in AA or AAA and he duplicated his 2003 numbers -- or even dropped back to, say, .320/.400/.480 -- you'd be cursing the Sox for leaving him in the minors to rot, while Juan Uribe leads off. (Don't laugh -- I think Ozzie always fancied himself as a leadoff hitter.)

Dick Allen
01-07-2004, 11:05 PM
I nominate Ed "The Jet" Herrmann.

jeremyb1
01-08-2004, 02:34 AM
Originally posted by Daver
Stat heads crack me up.

Reed is ready based on 40 games played at AA because his numbers were good.

There is a lot more to player development than looking at numbers folks.

Ok. Then what factors other that statistics suggest Reed is at a similar stage in his development as Caruso was when he was called up? Reed is older than Caruso was, he's played at higher levels, he played in college, he has better plate discipline, and he's performed better. Statistics are merely a means of describing performance. If there are other factors I've left out you should certainly point them out but I hardly think a player's success in the minors is irrelevant.

tanko
01-08-2004, 10:23 AM
Rudy Law

jabrch
01-08-2004, 11:25 AM
Originally posted by joecrede
Reed should lead-off and play center.

Williams would have had more than $10M had he not decided Koch and Konerko were worth $15M combined.

Add in Valentin to bring it to an even 20mm and you have a third place team.

jabrch
01-08-2004, 11:26 AM
Originally posted by joecrede
The last two years Reed has 674 minor league AB's. Robin Ventura has 486 career minor league AB's and that's counting his rehab stint after breaking his ankle.

Ventura played 4 years of college baseball, right? (I am not 100% sure of that - I just think I recall it.) Reed is far younger than Robin was.

joecrede
01-08-2004, 12:41 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
Ventura played 4 years of college baseball, right? (I am not 100% sure of that - I just think I recall it.) Reed is far younger than Robin was.

They both played three years in college. Ventura turned 23 in his first full major league season, Reed turns 23 this year.

TaylorStSox
01-08-2004, 12:48 PM
Reed should be playing a corner outfield position and be hitting second. He doesn't have the speed to play CF in the majors nor steal a signicant amount of bases. I expect him to be playing RF in 05. Definately not CF in 04.

TheRockinMT
01-08-2004, 12:51 PM
Re: Who Leads Off
Quote:
Originally posted by 34 Inch Stick
If we are truly done picking up FA and this is our team, who is going to be our lead off man. Rowand and Harris strike out too much and have low OBP. No one else has the speed that you would like at the position.

I don't see how Kenny can accept the budget he has been given, knowing that 10 million more would get him a division championship.



Reed should lead-off and play center.

Williams would have had more than $10M had he not decided Koch and Konerko were worth $15M combined.
\

I think that in a year or two you just might see Reed with the Sox either leading off or hitting second. I guess it just depends on the development of Willie Harris.

TheRockinMT
01-08-2004, 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by IOWA SOXMAN
Konerko is not a bad idea for leading off. It would improve his GIDP numbers.



Hilarious!!!!


This is true, sad, but true...

jeremyb1
01-08-2004, 05:53 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
Reed should be playing a corner outfield position and be hitting second. He doesn't have the speed to play CF in the majors nor steal a signicant amount of bases. I expect him to be playing RF in 05. Definately not CF in 04.

Reed might be the best base stealing prospect in the organization with a legitimate chance to reach the majors outside of Harris. On base percentage is far more important in the leadoff spot than base stealing capabilities. You've probably noticed that players aren't routinely stealing 50 bases these days. Reed is fast enough that his speed won't be a huge liability in the leadoff spot allowing him to frequently be involved in double plays or fail to advance on fly balls so if his OBP is up to par he's fast enough to lead off.

TaylorStSox
01-08-2004, 10:37 PM
*cough*Yan*cough*

Daver
01-08-2004, 10:52 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
*cough*Yan*cough*

LMAO!!!!!

TaylorStSox
01-08-2004, 11:09 PM
You don't think Yan has any ML potential at all? I haven't seen him personally but I followed his numbers closely last year. They seemed intriguing, especially early in the year.

Daver
01-08-2004, 11:16 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
You don't think Yan has any ML potential at all? I haven't seen him personally but I followed his numbers closely last year. They seemed intriguing, especially early in the year.

You can't steal first base against MLB pitching,and you have to be able to play defense on that level as well.

Ruddy Yan is a project that may pan out sometime down the line,but he is not even close to playing on the MLB level.Numbers never tell you the full story.

A. Cavatica
01-08-2004, 11:20 PM
The only way Yan sees time with the 2004 Sox is if they need a pinch runner in September.

Or if he develops a cutter.

TaylorStSox
01-08-2004, 11:20 PM
I didn't mean that he's be leading off next year. I was referring to the comment that Reed is our best base stealing prospect.

TaylorStSox
01-08-2004, 11:21 PM
Obviously, he's not ready. I'm not one of those guys that thinks good A ball numbers mean the guy is ready for the ML.

jeremyb1
01-09-2004, 02:37 AM
Originally posted by Daver
You can't steal first base against MLB pitching,and you have to be able to play defense on that level as well.

Ruddy Yan is a project that may pan out sometime down the line,but he is not even close to playing on the MLB level.Numbers never tell you the full story.

I'd say they do in this case. The guy has a .640 OPS, he obviously is not a big time prospect. He doesn't walk, hit for average, or hit for power.

Frater Perdurabo
01-09-2004, 10:37 AM
Reed might be the best base stealing prospect in the organization with a legitimate chance to reach the majors outside of Harris. On base percentage is far more important in the leadoff spot than base stealing capabilities. You've probably noticed that players aren't routinely stealing 50 bases these days. Reed is fast enough that his speed won't be a huge liability in the leadoff spot allowing him to frequently be involved in double plays or fail to advance on fly balls so if his OBP is up to par he's fast enough to lead off.

Juan Pierre stole a ton of bases for the WORLD CHAMPION MARLINS this past year. You cannot overlook the impact that he and Luis Castillo had on both the rest of the Marlins lineup and on opposing pitchers who had to worry about bases being stolen left and right. It leads to more fastballs, which helps out the 3-4-5 hitters.

I agree that Reed needs the be given the opportunity to win a spot on the Sox major league roster. The CF job needs to be an open competition between Reed, LTP and Rowand, with the best two making the team. I happen to think that Reed and LTP would win, but *** do I know. If Rowand outperforms both Reed and LTP, let him have the starting job. My hope is that Reed and LTP win it outright and both share CF and back up Lee and Maggs in left and right, and DH occasionally as well (along with Konerko being traded and Frank playing 1B).

But let's not hand out the starting CF job before spring training or before the Sox sign a free agent All-Star CF to a multiyear deal!

jeremyb1
01-09-2004, 12:36 PM
Originally posted by Frater Perdurabo
Juan Pierre stole a ton of bases for the WORLD CHAMPION MARLINS this past year. You cannot overlook the impact that he and Luis Castillo had on both the rest of the Marlins lineup and on opposing pitchers who had to worry about bases being stolen left and right. It leads to more fastballs, which helps out the 3-4-5 hitters.[/COLOR]

First of all, I don't like the argument that the Marlins had basestealers and won the World Series so you have to have good baserunners to win championships. I agree with you somewhat about stealing threats helping batters but I'm not sure it has a huge impact. If the runners aren't successful at near an 80% clip, they're running into too many outs which are counterproductive to the club's success. Furthermore, a running threat on the bases obviously isn't going to make an average player an all-star. Some players like Frank and distracted by runners.

KingXerxes
01-09-2004, 12:43 PM
IF they get him - Chris Singleton would be a good leadoff hitter. I don't know why his steals were down last year, but you can pretty much figure that he's going to hit .270 - .280 and get you 25 SBs.

CubKilla
01-09-2004, 12:48 PM
Originally posted by KingXerxes
but you can pretty much figure that he's going to hit .270 - .280 and get you 25 SBs.

.135-.140 of that will be of the swinging bunt variety :D:

Randar68
01-09-2004, 12:51 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Reed might be the best base stealing prospect in the organization with a legitimate chance to reach the majors outside of Harris.

I don't think that's true at all. At the least, Brian Anderson is a better base stealer, as is Valido.

Reed ran a lot, but you have to be a 70-90% base stealer in the minors to even be an effective base stealer in the majors. Reed is a smart baserunner, and that will usually get you 10-15 steals a year if you have a manager who gives you the green light. I can't see Reed ever stealing more than 25 bases.

ode to veeck
01-09-2004, 12:51 PM
IF they get him - Chris Singleton would be a good leadoff hitter. I don't know why his steals were down last year, but you can pretty much figure that he's going to hit .270 - .280 and get you 25 SBs

Terrible OBP, he never met a pitch he didn't like, closest thing he gets to a walk is HBP when his slow swing can't get his arms out of the way fast enough ...

leadofff man is critical to Sox run production, especially with their style of hitting, look at how they lead in offensive categories the few weeks a healthy Lofton started in the lineup (too bad his hammys went south)

Ray Ray had all the physical tools, but not the mentality to do it right.

For a time the aging Roberto was a "better than anything else we got" fill in at leadoff last year.

Been a consistent hole left unfilled the last few years now ... seems like eons since we lead the majors in run production in '00--we're light years from that now

Randar68
01-09-2004, 12:57 PM
Originally posted by ode to veeck
Terrible OBP, he never met a pitch he didn't like, closest thing he gets to a walk is HBP when his slow swing can't get his arms out of the way fast enough ...

I wouldn't mind signing Singleton to a one-year contract to fill the hole in CF (definitely not to lead-off though) until LTP or Reed are ready. He's the best defensive outfielder we've had in the last 10 years, and a .275 avg and low OBP is as good or better than what most anyone can reasonably expect out of Rowand...