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TornLabrum
12-21-2003, 03:17 PM
Thanks to Russrcon at AOL for the following stats that I was unable to dig up regarding Nomar's home/road splits:

At Fenway:

BA = .359 OBP = .403 SPct = .647

On the road:

BA= .243 OBP = .286 SPct = .401

This was a baaaaaad deal a verrrrrry baaaaaaaad deal!

Russ also notes that Nomar's BA at the Cell last year was a hefty buck sixty.

Frater Perdurabo
12-21-2003, 04:59 PM
Hal, as usual you make a convincing case. Your case is further strenghtened by the data that was posted in another thread about Valentin's defensive stats.

However, how would you have viewed the other possiblity of the trade that wasn't: namely, if they had then sent Nomar to LA for pitching? What would you have though of such a deal?

doublem23
12-21-2003, 05:06 PM
How many games did Nomar play at the Cell last year? 3?

dickallen15
12-21-2003, 05:32 PM
I think there's a pretty good chance Nomar would hit better than .160 at the Cell over the course of a season, and that his overall numbers would be fairly similar to what they have historically been. Last year was the first time he had such a disparity in home/road splits, and many on the Boston boards blame it on his new bride. Supposedly she made many roadtrips with Nomar. But she also was with him in Boston, so how can that be explained?
Whatever the reasons were, as much as I love Magglio, I named my puppy after him, Nomar is a name that will be of more interest to the casual fan. The fact that he's a shortstop is even better. Gammons, who has been even more wrong than usual this off season (if that's even possible) mentioned a few weeks ago the Sox wanted Valentin to play 2b. Maybe if this trade goes down, he will be correct for a change.
If you go to the letters section of the LA Times, the Dodger fans are ripping Evans for not wanting to include Mota in a trade to get Nomar. They can't believe he won't give him up. If the big trade does go down, and I'm Kenny Williams, I would make sure I got Mota, Perez and one of their 2 top prospects before I moved Nomar along. I think Evans will eventually blink.

Tragg
12-21-2003, 06:24 PM
Originally posted by TornLabrum
Thanks to Russrcon at AOL for the following stats that I was unable to dig up regarding Nomar's home/road splits:

At Fenway:

BA = .359 OBP = .403 SPct = .647

On the road:

BA= .243 OBP = .286 SPct = .401

This was a baaaaaad deal a verrrrrry baaaaaaaad deal!

Russ also notes that Nomar's BA at the Cell last year was a hefty buck sixty.

I'm not convinced that the deal is a "wasn't"

But I'm with you - it stinks - all it serves is to be a gammons/epstein manservant.

And even without the home/road differentials, ordonez is simply the better hitter - and by a wide margin.

MarkEdward
12-21-2003, 06:28 PM
I think people are making too much out of Nomar's road troubles. Yes, he wasn't very good on the road this year. However, in 2002, he hit .328/.362/.522 away from Fenway. In 1882 at-bats on the road, he has hit .307/.355/.535.

I really think 2003 was an anomaly.

MRKARNO
12-21-2003, 06:56 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
I think people are making too much out of Nomar's road troubles. Yes, he wasn't very good on the road this year. However, in 2002, he hit .328/.362/.522 away from Fenway. In 1882 at-bats on the road, he has hit .307/.355/.535.

I really think 2003 was an anomaly.

I think if you look even deeper, you might find that 2002 was an anomoly. I dont have the pre-2001 splits, but he did the same thing in 2001, when he was MUCH better at home than the road

JJAustin69
12-21-2003, 07:00 PM
Nomar=bum wrist

munchman33
12-21-2003, 07:45 PM
To those of you who consider this a bad deal I say this.

Next year, when the sox have bases loaded and one out with Mags at the plate and he hits into a double play, you'll understand why he's not a superstar.

He does it every time. :(:

RKMeibalane
12-21-2003, 07:52 PM
Personally, I think the Sox should hang on to Maggs for now. They already have both Valentin and Uribe to play shortstop, so unless one of those players was dealt in trade for Nomar, I don't see any reason for KW to make this trade.

If I were in Williams' shoes, I would make the trade involving the following players:

White Sox receive:

Nomar Garciaparra
Johnny Damon
Cash

Red Sox receive:

Magglio Ordonez
Jose Valentin

TornLabrum
12-21-2003, 07:56 PM
Originally posted by Frater Perdurabo
Hal, as usual you make a convincing case. Your case is further strenghtened by the data that was posted in another thread about Valentin's defensive stats.

However, how would you have viewed the other possiblity of the trade that wasn't: namely, if they had then sent Nomar to LA for pitching? What would you have though of such a deal?

Depends on the strength of the pitching, but that could have been a deal I would have liked. However, according to Cowley's conversation with KW, that trade wasn't even being discussed. "I haven't talked to Danny Evans in four days," was how Cowley quoted Williams.

TornLabrum
12-21-2003, 07:57 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
How many games did Nomar play at the Cell last year? 3?

That's why I put it as an afterthought. The operative statistics were the home/road split, which was actually worse than what I stated in my column.

TornLabrum
12-21-2003, 07:58 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
I think people are making too much out of Nomar's road troubles. Yes, he wasn't very good on the road this year. However, in 2002, he hit .328/.362/.522 away from Fenway. In 1882 at-bats on the road, he has hit .307/.355/.535.

I really think 2003 was an anomaly.

When you get to be a 30-year-old middle infielder, it's hard to tell an anomaly from the start of a trend.

MarkEdward
12-22-2003, 12:01 AM
Originally posted by MRKARNO

I think if you look even deeper, you might find that 2002 was an anomoly. I dont have the pre-2001 splits, but he did the same thing in 2001, when he was MUCH better at home than the road

Well, he took only 37 ABs on the road in 2001. That's a bit of a small sample size.

Originally posted by TornLabrum

When you get to be a 30-year-old middle infielder, it's hard to tell an anomaly from the start of a trend.

Again, we're comparing sample sizes. In 329 ABs last year, he hit .243/.286/.401. Prior to 2003, in about 1600 ABs, he hit about .320/.375/.560. Those 330 ABs are just too small to compare to the 1600 previous ABs.

I don't see Nomar's road slumps as a beginning of a trend. Is there any other evidence to suggest that this could be a trend? Have any other hitters overtly benefited from Fenway? For what it's worth, Fenway's been more or less neutral the past few years.

TornLabrum
12-22-2003, 12:06 AM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
I don't see Nomar's road slumps as a beginning of a trend. Is there any other evidence to suggest that this could be a trend? Have any other hitters overtly benefited from Fenway? For what it's worth, Fenway's been more or less neutral the past few years.

His age.

MarkEdward
12-22-2003, 01:33 PM
Originally posted by TornLabrum
His age.

Maybe we're arguing two different points. Yes, Nomar will be 31 in July. Obviously, he will begin to decline. A vast majority of players not named Barry Bonds tend to decline after age 27. However, to use age to explain Nomar's 2003 road woes is a bit disingenuous. Here's what I mean: Nomar's road stats, from 2002 to 2003, took a major dive. With a normal or above-average ballplayer (like Nomar is), a statistical dive like this would suggest more of a fluke than a trend.

I haven't seen this brought up in any of my baseball readings, so I'll pose the question here: has there been any historical precedence showing that players begin to decline overall when they stop hitting away from their home park?

Sorry if this post seems jumbled. I think I'm having difficulty explaining my thoughts on this subject clearly.

TornLabrum
12-22-2003, 06:03 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Maybe we're arguing two different points. Yes, Nomar will be 31 in July. Obviously, he will begin to decline. A vast majority of players not named Barry Bonds tend to decline after age 27. However, to use age to explain Nomar's 2003 road woes is a bit disingenuous. Here's what I mean: Nomar's road stats, from 2002 to 2003, took a major dive. With a normal or above-average ballplayer (like Nomar is), a statistical dive like this would suggest more of a fluke than a trend.

I haven't seen this brought up in any of my baseball readings, so I'll pose the question here: has there been any historical precedence showing that players begin to decline overall when they stop hitting away from their home park?

Sorry if this post seems jumbled. I think I'm having difficulty explaining my thoughts on this subject clearly.

I think in Nomar's case we have to be suspicious since he is playing half his games in one of the best hitter's parks in the game. If you're going to do the type of research you're talking about, you're going to have to look at players who play at Fenway or similar parks.

MarkEdward
12-22-2003, 10:20 PM
Originally posted by TornLabrum
I think in Nomar's case we have to be suspicious since he is playing half his games in one of the best hitter's parks in the game. If you're going to do the type of research you're talking about, you're going to have to look at players who play at Fenway or similar parks.

Fenway's one of the best hitter's parks in the league? It's a bit of a hitter's park, true, but not overtly. For what it's worth, here are the Baseball-reference.com and Baseball Prospectus park factors for Fenway:

B-r.com:
'98: 100/99
'99: 105/104
'00: 101/101
'01: 101/101
'02: 98/99
'03: 105/104

BP (0.0% is neutral):
'98: +3.3%
'99: +8.5%
'00: +10.8%
'01: +10.8%
'02: +1.7%
'03: +8.6%

Like I said, it has been a hitter's park, but I don't think Fenway's benefited Nomar that much. In fact, Fenway does look a little similar to Comiskey's park factors.

TornLabrum
12-22-2003, 10:27 PM
Nomar hits right handed, and as I recall, Fenway has always favored right handed hitters while hurting lefties. You have a split on those figures?

MarkEdward
12-24-2003, 12:03 AM
Originally posted by TornLabrum
Nomar hits right handed, and as I recall, Fenway has always favored right handed hitters while hurting lefties. You have a split on those figures?

I think that's the rumor, although I can't find any overall stats to back it up. I did look at some individual players, though. Manny Ramirez joined the Red Sox in 2001, and here are his home and away stats since then:
home: .319/.432/.600
away: .331/.419/.623
I don't think Fenway has helped him much. Manny hits equally well both home and on the road. How about Kevin Millar, another righty; here are his 2003 splits:
home: .288/.364/.464
away: .263/.331/.484
Not much of a difference. Shea Hillenbrand, another righty, started at third for the Sox in 2001 and 2002. Here are his home and road splits for both years:
'01 home: .246/.271/.357
'01 road: .281/.312/.429
'02 home: .264/.301/.367
'02 road: .322/.358/.548
It looks like Shea was not helped by Fenway.

As you said, Fenway is supposed to hurt lefties. Todd Walker is a lefty and started at second for the Red Sox last year. Here are his splits:
home: .323/.382/.502
road: .243/.283/.355
Fenway actually helped him greatly. Here's David Ortiz's splits:
home: .216/.305/.405
road: .253/.343/.547
So it looks like Fenway hurt him. Johnny Damon's been with Boston since 2002. Here are his 2002 and 2003 splits:
'02 home: .284/.366/.426
'02 road: .287/.348/.458
'03 home: .291/.366/.425
'03 road: .254/.322/.353
Fenway may be helping him a bit. I'm on a roll, so let's look at Trot Nixon:
career, home: .291/.383/.515
career, road: .268/.355/.513
Remember, Nixon is strictly a platoon player. Fenway hasn't hurt him much, though.

There are sample size issues, but it doesn't look like Fenway's hurt lefties or helped righties much for some recent Red Sox players.

TornLabrum
12-24-2003, 12:15 AM
Interesting stats. As you said, a small sample size, but still enough to make one wonder about conventional wisdom.