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View Full Version : Buehrle Regressing?


jeremyb1
12-05-2003, 04:01 PM
I thought I'd start this thread since the notion that Buehrle has regressed recently was brought up in the Perez-Konerko thread. While Buehrle's past two season were clearly not as good as his first season, I would argue its inaccurate to paint a picture suggesting his pitching has continued to drop of dramatically the past two seasons.

K Rate - Buehrle's strikeout rate his first two seasons was nearly identical. It was slightly lower his second season but not at a statistically significant level. Buehrle's K rate was significantly lower last season that his first two seasons but he admittedly struggled in the first half. Furthermore, neither one half nor one season makes a trend.

BB Rate - The most disturbing aspect of Buehrle's performance the past two seasons has been his walk rate which has been significantly higher than his first full season. However, the reality may simply be that Buehrle had a carrer year in terms of control in '01. Additionally, its possible that hitters simply discovered that he was going to be around the plate requiring Buehrle to attack hitters somewhat less to remain effective.

The bottom line is that Buehrle did not pitch considerably worse in '01 than '02 and then again considerably worse in '03 than '02. If you look at his splits, Buehrle posted a 53/20 KK/BB rate in the second half last season which is as good as his KK/BB ratio over any season he's pitched. While his workload has been somewhat large, that doesn't necessarily mean he's been overworked. With a few exceptions he hasn't racked up huge pitch counts so he shouldn't be considered at huge risk for an arm injury. If he did in fact have a serious injury there's no way he'd be able to pitch as effectively as he did last season.

nodiggity59
12-05-2003, 04:05 PM
yeah - I see Mark B bouncing back - especially if he is pushed by Ozzie. Remember he responded well to be hounded by Wells. AND Gen Disarray handled him really bad as well.

hold2dibber
12-05-2003, 04:09 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
I thought I'd start this thread since the notion that Buehrle has regressed recently was brought up in the Perez-Konerko thread. While Buehrle's past two season were clearly not as good as his first season, I would argue its inaccurate to paint a picture suggesting his pitching has continued to drop of dramatically the past two seasons.

K Rate - Buehrle's strikeout rate his first two seasons was nearly identical. It was slightly lower his second season but not at a statistically significant level. Buehrle's K rate was significantly lower last season that his first two seasons but he admittedly struggled in the first half. Furthermore, neither one half nor one season makes a trend.

BB Rate - The most disturbing aspect of Buehrle's performance the past two seasons has been his walk rate which has been significantly higher than his first full season. However, the reality may simply be that Buehrle had a carrer year in terms of control in '01. Additionally, its possible that hitters simply discovered that he was going to be around the plate requiring Buehrle to attack hitters somewhat less to remain effective.

The bottom line is that Buehrle did not pitch considerably worse in '01 than '02 and then again considerably worse in '03 than '02. If you look at his splits, Buehrle posted a 53/20 KK/BB rate in the second half last season which is as good as his KK/BB ratio over any season he's pitched. While his workload has been somewhat large, that doesn't necessarily mean he's been overworked. With a few exceptions he hasn't racked up huge pitch counts so he shouldn't be considered at huge risk for an arm injury. If he did in fact have a serious injury there's no way he'd be able to pitch as effectively as he did last season.

I think it's too early to say he's regressing, but he may be. As you note, his K rate dropped substantially last year and his walk rate has been increasing for 2 years. His ERA has gone up in each of the past two seasons over his first. I think you'd be hard pressed to say he was as effective last year as he was in either of the two previous years. With all that said, I still think Buehrle is a fine pitcher. He's never going to be Curt Schilling or even Roy Oswalt. But he is a solid starter who you can pretty much pencil in for 200 IPs and an ERA somewhere between 3.50 and 4.00 for each of the next several seasons.

PaulDrake
12-05-2003, 04:24 PM
You'd definitely have to say he has regressed somewhat each year. His H/IP ratio is way too high, he's become a very hittable pitcher suceptible to that one really bad inning. That being said, his second half last year was much stronger. The Sox badly need him to return to his best form over the course of an entire season. Is he capable of it? I think so.

Huisj
12-05-2003, 05:30 PM
Originally posted by PaulDrake
You'd definitely have to say he has regressed somewhat each year. His H/IP ratio is way too high, he's become a very hittable pitcher suceptible to that one really bad inning. That being said, his second half last year was much stronger. The Sox badly need him to return to his best form over the course of an entire season. Is he capable of it? I think so.

Opponents batting average:

2001: .230
2002: .260
2003: .278

that's a little bit alarming to me.

K/9 innings:

2000: 6.49
2001: 5.12
2002: 5.05
2003: 4.65

again, somewhat alarming (and yes, I realize 2000 was primarily out of the bullpen)

K/BB:

2001: 2.63
2002: 2.20
2003: 1.95

that's sort of scary.

3 years isn't really a huge sample set, especially when the player's only been in the league for 3 1/2 years, but i still think it does say something.

idseer
12-05-2003, 05:48 PM
the simple answer is ... i don't know.

if had problems with his control the 1st half of last year that could account for the bb/k rate, AND for the higher ba he's allowed. if we could guess that that was a temporary problem (as the 2nd half would indicate) then he's probably not regressing.

why would he have control problems at the start of last year? possibly he had more pressure on him than at any time before that.
1. his contract situation. he pushed too hard to show he was worth more than the offer he turned down?
2. the colon acquisition. no doubt had an effect and again was pressing too much at first. as it became obvious that colon was not the great pitcher we'd hoped for, he settled down.

instead of looking at 3 years to gauge regression, i'd like to see the same thing in half year incriments. can anyone break that down? 6 half-season numbers? i don't think it would look so much like regression then as simply a young pitcher trying to adjust himself to the whole show.

in any case we won't know until we see how he handles this coming season. personally, i think he'll rebound.

Huisj
12-05-2003, 06:28 PM
here's the pre and post all star break stats for buerhle for the last 3 years:

ERA:

2001pre : 3.29
2001post: 3.30
2002pre : 3.57
2002post: 3.59
2003pre : 4.24
2003post: 4.01

BA:

2001pre : .220
2001post: .241
2002pre : .252
2002post: .269
2003pre : .275
2003post: .284

K/9

2001pre : 6.10
2001post: 4.18
2002pre : 5.34
2002post: 4.75
2003pre : 4.36
2003post: 5.06

k/BB

2001pre : 2.96
2001post: 2.26
2002pre : 1.90
2002post: 2.76
2003pre : 1.61
2003post: 2.65


k rates are kind of all over here, so can't read much into those at all. still, the BA is still a bit alarming to me with this breakdown.

doublem23
12-07-2003, 11:35 AM
Um.... He's fine.

jordan23ventura
12-07-2003, 03:55 PM
Personally, I don't exactly believe JM treated Mark with much respect during his tenure here. Whether or not he'll turn it around soon remains to be seen, but barring any serious arm problems he will turn around. He's still very young and he is a definate winner.

jordan23ventura
12-07-2003, 04:08 PM
I will also add that he is an NL-type pitcher. Even if he turns it around I don't see him in the AL much longer.