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jeremyb1
12-01-2003, 03:10 PM
From what I can tell with the acquisition of Junior Spivey in the Sexson deal, Keith Ginter is now out of a job in Milwaukee. Personally, I can't envision a better option to fill our hole at 2B. Ginter should require a great deal of talent in a trade, will not be arbitration elligible for some time, and possesses above average on base skills (.352 OBP, .779 OPS last season). If our front office knows what its doing, they're on the phone will Bill Melvin right now.

Rocky Soprano
12-01-2003, 03:26 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
If our front office knows what its doing, they're on the phone will Bill Melvin right now.


That should be in teal, shouldn't? :smile:

jeremyb1
12-01-2003, 03:32 PM
Originally posted by Rocky Soprano
That should be in teal, shouldn't? :smile:

Probably rose, yeah.

Randar68
12-01-2003, 03:40 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
From what I can tell with the acquisition of Junior Spivey in the Sexson deal, Keith Ginter is now out of a job in Milwaukee. Personally, I can't envision a better option to fill our hole at 2B. Ginter should require a great deal of talent in a trade, will not be arbitration elligible for some time, and possesses above average on base skills (.352 OBP, .779 OPS last season). If our front office knows what its doing, they're on the phone will Bill Melvin right now.

I hope you meant "shouldn't require". I don't see him as much more than a Graffanino type. He's pretty valuable in that type of role, IMO. I don't know about full-time starter at 2B. Better options out there right now. Hopefully Robbie sees the light and returns for a 2 year contract for < $5 million

OneDog
12-01-2003, 04:04 PM
I think we should all be wary of putting faith in a guy that did not impress and could barely hold on to a job with a team as sorry as the Brewers. Royce Clayton started for the Brewers, I don't think anyone here is eager to see him return. I'm not saying that Ginter is as bad as Clayton, that's almost impossible. But, let's be careful.

If the Sox do get him, I think the only thing that can really come of this move is that they would lead the league in guys named Ginter

jeremyb1
12-01-2003, 04:14 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
I hope you meant "shouldn't require". I don't see him as much more than a Graffanino type. He's pretty valuable in that type of role, IMO. I don't know about full-time starter at 2B. Better options out there right now. Hopefully Robbie sees the light and returns for a 2 year contract for < $5 million

Yeah that was a typo. Graffanino and Ginter are similar in that they are both underrated players that have been tagged as utility players. The difference is that Graffanino is actually best suited for a part time role due to his splits (.889 OPS against lefties vs. .510 vs. righties last season) while Ginter produces similarly against left and right handed pitching.

Personally, I'm convinced that when considering our budget constraints and the salaries players will demand there as well as the talent players will require in a deal is not a better second base option for our club than Ginter. Paying Alomar five times as much money to post an OPS .100 points lower does not seem like a better option in my opinion. With a few more at bats, Ginter would've ranked as the 10th in the majors amongst second basemen in OPS last season, ahead of Castillo, Walker, and Kennedy. On top of that we could probably acquire him for a song and he will make next to nothing for the next two seasons. Personally I can't see a disadvantage to dealing for him.

Tekijawa
12-01-2003, 04:16 PM
It depends on what song we would have to give up for him... I'm willing to give up D'angelo Jimenez old "warm up" song, but There's no way I'd give up anything more than that!

jeremyb1
12-01-2003, 04:17 PM
Originally posted by OneDog
I think we should all be wary of putting faith in a guy that did not impress and could barely hold on to a job with a team as sorry as the Brewers. Royce Clayton started for the Brewers, I don't think anyone here is eager to see him return. I'm not saying that Ginter is as bad as Clayton, that's almost impossible. But, let's be careful.

If the Sox do get him, I think the only thing that can really come of this move is that they would lead the league in guys named Ginter

I have a problem with making baseball decisions relying solely on some higher source for opinion. I'm convinced its a fact that there are many executives paid a great deal of money and regarded to be intelligent baseball people that make horrendous decisions which severely inhibit their club's ability to win on a regular basis. Therefore, the fact that the Brewers don't think incredibly highly of Ginter - which isn't necessarily the case - does little to convince me he's not a valuable player. Billy Beane has built a reputation as the best GM in the game by consitently building 90+ win clubs with players other teams did not value. Theo Epstein created the best offense in the majors last season by signing three such players name Millar, Ortiz, and Mueller for a small amount of money.

jeremyb1
12-01-2003, 04:19 PM
Originally posted by Tekijawa
It depends on what song we would have to give up for him... I'm willing to give up D'angelo Jimenez old "warm up" song, but There's no way I'd give up anything more than that!

Actually if we hadn't dealt Jimenez for next to nothing, a deal like this wouldn't be necessary but I saw him make a mistake on the basepaths once so he's a terrible player.

jabrch
12-01-2003, 04:37 PM
1) Milwaukee, given its salary crunch, is looking to trade Spivey and his 2.5mm deal- not Ginter and his 300,000.

2) Personally, I can't envision a better option to fill our hole at 2B. If this is the case Jeremy, you sorely lack in the department of vision.

3) Back on the old Jimenez arguement, huh? Get over it. Everyone else has. The Jimenez era is over in Chicago, the same way it ended in San Diego and NY and how it will end in Cinci and other cities - with the team management happy to be rid of a problematic player who was too unaware of his surroundings to ever take advantage of his athletic talent.

4) I know you must envision yourself as this great talent evaluator based on your calculator and your spreadsheets. But I will take the evaluation of professional scouts and GMs who he played for, who have decided his value based on the little that they could get from those other professional scouts and GMs who looked at him and said that they weren't willing to part with midtier prospects for him....get the picture here? You are alone on your little D'angelo-loving island.


:)

jabrch
12-01-2003, 04:44 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Billy Beane has built a reputation as the best GM in the game by consitently building 90+ win clubs with players other teams did not value.

Do you think it was Hatteberg, Ellis and Long who won the As 103 games in 2002 or do you think it was Chavez, Tejada, Mulder, Zito, Hudson and Koch?

In 2001 was in Menechino, Jeremy Giambi and Olmedo Saenz or was it Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, Zito, Mulder, Hudson and Isringhausen?

Is it possible that Beane won with great stud talent that was young enough to not cost too much rather than incredible statistical wonders like John Jaha?

hold2dibber
12-01-2003, 04:46 PM
For those who are interested, Ginter's stats (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=6605) are relatively impressive. As Jeremy says, he appears to be able to get on base (.352 last year, .354 career) and he has some pop in his bat (14 HRs in only 358 ABs last year). As Jeremy points out, he put up good numbers against both left and right handed pitching. I have no idea what he can do with the glove. Also, he only had 90 MLB ABs before '03 (and only 358 last year). Is there reason to think (based upon his minor league career and/or his tools generally) that he will be able to continue to put up the same types of numbers he put up last year, or, alternatively, is there any reason to think that last year was a fluke year for him?

I am definitely intrigued, and agree that if the numbers he put up last year were in fact indicative of his actual skills, he is a better hitter than R. Alomar right now, and woud lost at least $2 million/year less.

hold2dibber
12-01-2003, 04:56 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
1) Milwaukee, given its salary crunch, is looking to trade Spivey and his 2.5mm deal- not Ginter and his 300,000.

You're probably right - but they're not going to have any luck dealing Spivey, unless they get someone else pricey in return. Ginter may be possible, because if the Brewers cannot move Spivey, they probably would rather have him play than sit on the bench making all that money. Ginter then becomes expendable to them.

2) If this is the case Jeremy, you sorely lack in the department of vision.

Who would you like to see playing 2B for the Sox next year (realistically)?



3) Back on the old Jimenez arguement, huh? Get over it. Everyone else has. The Jimenez era is over in Chicago, the same way it ended in San Diego and NY and how it will end in Cinci and other cities - with the team management happy to be rid of a problematic player who was too unaware of his surroundings to ever take advantage of his athletic talent.

I think you're probably right, but ...


4) I know you must envision yourself as this great talent evaluator based on your calculator and your spreadsheets. But I will take the evaluation of professional scouts and GMs who he played for, who have decided his value based on the little that they could get from those other professional scouts and GMs who looked at him and said that they weren't willing to part with midtier prospects for him....get the picture here? You are alone on your little D'angelo-loving island.

Well, if you think that statistical analysis has NO place in determining a player's worth, I think you're nuts, but I'm probably not going to be able to convince you otherwise. In any event, regardless of the fact that Jimenez was (apparently) a disaster in the clubhouse and was (obviously) a meathead on the field, the fact was that he is a talented hitter. The problem I have with dumping him for nothing is that he is much better than anyone else in the Sox organization right now. They traded away their only player who would be under contract for '04 and who is a decent, every day MLB 2B. He was also cheap. Can the Sox do better? Absolutely. But they left themselves in a tough spot by dealing him. The guy needs an ass kicking to get his head straight - maybe Ozzie would have been able to give that to him.

As much as Jimenez drove me nuts, and as much as I was happy to see him riding the bench last year after Alomar arrived, if Aaron Miles or Willie Harris is starting at 2B next season, we'll all rue the day when Jimenez was traded.

MarkEdward
12-01-2003, 05:13 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
Is there reason to think (based upon his minor league career and/or his tools generally) that he will be able to continue to put up the same types of numbers he put up last year, or, alternatively, is there any reason to think that last year was a fluke year for him?


Well, here are most of his minor league stats:
AAA: 892 ABs, .267/.371/.441
AA: 703 ABs, .327/.458/.558

I really don't think 2003 was a fluke for Ginter. I'm with Jeremy all the way on this; considering his price, Ginter is the best option for the Sox at this point. Castillo and Walker will be too pricey (though I wouldn't mind going after Walker), and Roberto Alomar is overpriced at anything over $1 million.

However, as said before, I don't think the Brewers are trying to move Ginter. They're probably trying to dump Spivey (who I don't want to see the Sox go after).

jabrch
12-01-2003, 05:31 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
Well, if you think that statistical analysis has NO place in determining a player's worth, I think you're nuts, but I'm probably not going to be able to convince you otherwise.


I never said that - nor do I believe it. I truly believe you can use statistical analysis as a tool to evaluate players. However, it can not be used to an extreme. You not pull selected statistics (certainly not OPS being not a statistic itself - rather the sum of two statistics and not a truly statistically significant number anymore) and try and prove a player will be able to win more games for your team based on it.

There is a place for quantitative analysis. In the case of D'Angelo Jimenez, the bests baseball minds have all looked at him (Billy Beane included) and said no thanks. They said Jay Witasik, Humberto Quintero and Scott Dunn were all MLB GMs (INCLUDING BEANE) were willing to pay.

There is a place for stats - but it is not ahead of watching fundamentals, swings, arms, gloves, and actual performances. You can tell a whole lot more from watching these guys every day then you can from the box scores.

jabrch
12-01-2003, 05:33 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
However, as said before, I don't think the Brewers are trying to move Ginter. They're probably trying to dump Spivey (who I don't want to see the Sox go after).

In fact, I'd bet the darn near give away Junior Spivey to anyone interested in giving them a marginal prospect. I think that's why they took Spivey over Matt Kata from AZ - the intent on trading Spivey still.

jabrch
12-01-2003, 05:39 PM
If you look at Baseball Reference.com's page on Jimenez

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jimend'01.shtml

and look at the Similar Batters table in the lower left hand side, #10 is Freddy Manrique.

I remember many times hearing

:hawk

"I luuuuuvvvv Freddy Manrique"

doublem23
12-01-2003, 05:40 PM
Ginter's nice, but if he's our starter at the start of the '04 year, you can pack it in.

Tekijawa
12-01-2003, 05:44 PM
Does it matter if I've already packed it in?

Is Craig Grebeck still in baseball? Maybe he could play 2nd... and then maybe coach next year?

RichH55
12-02-2003, 02:42 AM
Originally posted by doublem23
Ginter's nice, but if he's our starter at the start of the '04 year, you can pack it in.

We could do worse....as will other teams...These moves dont happen in a vaccuum....a pretty good 2B for 350 K leaves you flexibility to do other things

If you have say Ginter and Pete Munro/Ginter(ours already)/similar cheap spare part instead of Robbie and Schoenweiss you have saved roughly 3- 4 million in the process and will probably at worst get similar production

I fail to see how having Ginter as a starter as opposed to say Vina's monsterous .309 OBP and bad hamstrings or Aaron Miles in all his AAAA glory or Robbie Alomar trying to make everyone believe that bunting the ball foul in order to move the opposition around is worth roughly .55 points in OBP would put us in a bad position? Not to mention the 350 K number, which should not be ignored

jabrch
12-02-2003, 11:34 AM
Originally posted by RichH55
We could do worse....as will other teams...These moves dont happen in a vaccuum....a pretty good 2B for 350 K leaves you flexibility to do other things

If you have say Ginter and Pete Munro/Ginter(ours already)/similar cheap spare part instead of Robbie and Schoenweiss you have saved roughly 3- 4 million in the process and will probably at worst get similar production

I fail to see how having Ginter as a starter as opposed to say Vina's monsterous .309 OBP and bad hamstrings or Aaron Miles in all his AAAA glory or Robbie Alomar trying to make everyone believe that bunting the ball foul in order to move the opposition around is worth roughly .55 points in OBP would put us in a bad position? Not to mention the 350 K number, which should not be ignored

Nobody said Ginter is bad...just that he isnt good either. The question really is if he is acquirable. I don't see Milwaukee taking any of our crap for him. Our minor league system lacks depth. Why would the Brewers give him up?

My guess is that we see Milwaukee trade Junior Spivey to someone for a midtier prospect (I could see them getting Royce Ring for the Mets for example) and they will keep Ginter around until Weeks is ready to take the job full time.

jabrch
12-02-2003, 11:35 AM
Originally posted by RichH55
We could do worse....as will other teams...These moves dont happen in a vaccuum....a pretty good 2B for 350 K leaves you flexibility to do other things

If you have say Ginter and Pete Munro/Ginter(ours already)/similar cheap spare part instead of Robbie and Schoenweiss you have saved roughly 3- 4 million in the process and will probably at worst get similar production

I fail to see how having Ginter as a starter as opposed to say Vina's monsterous .309 OBP and bad hamstrings or Aaron Miles in all his AAAA glory or Robbie Alomar trying to make everyone believe that bunting the ball foul in order to move the opposition around is worth roughly .55 points in OBP would put us in a bad position? Not to mention the 350 K number, which should not be ignored

AND NOBODY...NOBODY...NOBODY here seems to have any interest in Fernando Vina. (rightfully so)

jeremyb1
12-02-2003, 02:38 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
1) Milwaukee, given its salary crunch, is looking to trade Spivey and his 2.5mm deal- not Ginter and his 300,000.

2) If this is the case Jeremy, you sorely lack in the department of vision.

3) Back on the old Jimenez arguement, huh? Get over it. Everyone else has. The Jimenez era is over in Chicago, the same way it ended in San Diego and NY and how it will end in Cinci and other cities - with the team management happy to be rid of a problematic player who was too unaware of his surroundings to ever take advantage of his athletic talent.

4) I know you must envision yourself as this great talent evaluator based on your calculator and your spreadsheets. But I will take the evaluation of professional scouts and GMs who he played for, who have decided his value based on the little that they could get from those other professional scouts and GMs who looked at him and said that they weren't willing to part with midtier prospects for him....get the picture here? You are alone on your little D'angelo-loving island.
:)

I lack in the department of vision? Way to combat my arguments about his on base skills and salary while also suggesting a better option in light of our budget crisis.

It seems odd if Milwaukee dealt for Spivey only to trade him because he won't bring a lot or probably anything for that matter in a deal. If he's not in their plans odds are good they'll end up being forced to non-tender him and his 2.5 million salary. In that case we should sign Spivey who is as good or better than Ginter. If they end up trading Spivey and not Ginter for next to nothing we should be the one to trade for him. Either way we're look at lot better than paying Alomar 2 or 3 million for a sub .700 OPS or going with Miles or Harris.

Again, just because a major league GM did something that does not mean its correct. If that's the case I see no point to this message board since every move that's made in baseball is perfect. We don't have to sit here discussing which moves KW will make because he will make the right moves since he's a GM.

jeremyb1
12-02-2003, 02:41 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
Do you think it was Hatteberg, Ellis and Long who won the As 103 games in 2002 or do you think it was Chavez, Tejada, Mulder, Zito, Hudson and Koch?

In 2001 was in Menechino, Jeremy Giambi and Olmedo Saenz or was it Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, Zito, Mulder, Hudson and Isringhausen?

Is it possible that Beane won with great stud talent that was young enough to not cost too much rather than incredible statistical wonders like John Jaha?

Guys like Hatteburg and Bradford that the A's pick up from other teams (not home grown guys like Long and Ellis) perform much better than alsorans on other clubs. Again, how about Millar, Mueller, and Ortiz in Boston last season? Did they lack impact on their team's success?