PDA

View Full Version : Mags and FA market this year.


Dadawg_77
11-17-2003, 11:01 AM
Dec 7th is the key date for off baseball. Nothing will nor should happen until after that. For those who haven't seen, that is the deadline for clubs to tender offers to players. Players who do not receive an offer become unrestricted free agents and teams do not have to give up a draft to sign them. Since so many team do not want to lost their draft picks, they will wait to see who was offer arbitration and who wasn't.

What this does, it creates a flood of players after that date, and since everyone but a few teams is cutting payroll, demand will be down. The baseball labor market will shift for lower cost to create an equilibrium with the demand and supply. Thus the White Sox, if smart enough, should be able to pick up some good solid players for cheap. Look at the Red Sox, they pick up several of their key components from players who were non tendered.

Another thing is unless Mag resigns with the Sox and the Sox will receiver no draft picks for him leaving, there is no way the Sox can keep him after this year. Since the cost of labor will go down, Mags is no longer worth $14 million a year. Since the Sox would have offer him arbitration, they would be stuck paying at least 11.2 million for one year in 2004. That assumes a arbitrator would give Mags the maximum decrease, 20%. This is a pretty risky assumption to have, especially since Baseball Arbitration is winner takes all process.

This makes it imperative that the Sox find some good jewels in the rough this year and trade Mags for a couple of 0-3 players. I know that make stomach turn but it is the only way for this club to get better for next year and beyond.

jeremyb1
11-17-2003, 02:56 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77


Another thing is unless Mag resigns with the Sox and the Sox will receiver no draft picks for him leaving, there is no way the Sox can keep him after this year. Since the cost of labor will go down, Mags is no longer worth $14 million a year. Since the Sox would have offer him arbitration, they would be stuck paying at least 11.2 million for one year in 2004. That assumes a arbitrator would give Mags the maximum decrease, 20%. This is a pretty risky assumption to have, especially since Baseball Arbitration is winner takes all process.

You make a good point, but I'm not sure its guaranteed Maggs would accept arbitration. If he's projected to make 12 million in arbitration and can secure a deal for 4 years at 40 million from some club he'd really like to play for, there's a good chance he'd go for the long term security.

hold2dibber
11-17-2003, 03:06 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
You make a good point, but I'm not sure its guaranteed Maggs would accept arbitration. If he's projected to make 12 million in arbitration and can secure a deal for 4 years at 40 million from some club he'd really like to play for, there's a good chance he'd go for the long term security.

It seems to me that a key issue here is how the arbitrators are supposed to make their determinations - what factors do they take into consideration. For example, say that this off season Vlad Guerrero gets a $13 mm/year deal and Gary Sheffield gets a $10 mm/year deal. If Ordonez were to go to arbitration after next season, it would seem to me that the market established by Guerrero and Sheffield should basically be the determinative factor in determining what Maggs could get - and it wouldn't be much more than $10 million. Of could the arbitrator somehow take 2000 signings or 1999 signings into consideration and give Maggs and increase on his $14 mm in '03? Are there other factors the arbitrators take into consideration other than recent FA signings of comparable players?

Rocky Soprano
11-17-2003, 03:13 PM
If I were the Sox, I would offer 5 years for 45 Million.

And maybe add some incentives. If he meets them then he gets some bonus money.

jeremyb1
11-17-2003, 03:32 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
It seems to me that a key issue here is how the arbitrators are supposed to make their determinations - what factors do they take into consideration. For example, say that this off season Vlad Guerrero gets a $13 mm/year deal and Gary Sheffield gets a $10 mm/year deal. If Ordonez were to go to arbitration after next season, it would seem to me that the market established by Guerrero and Sheffield should basically be the determinative factor in determining what Maggs could get - and it wouldn't be much more than $10 million. Of could the arbitrator somehow take 2000 signings or 1999 signings into consideration and give Maggs and increase on his $14 mm in '03? Are there other factors the arbitrators take into consideration other than recent FA signings of comparable players?

I'm completely with you there. I don't understand how much emphasis arbitrators put on the current state of the market compared to deals signed a few years ago. Will Vlad's deal be the basis, Manny's, or something in between?

HITMEN OF 77
11-17-2003, 05:20 PM
I don't fullly understand all the clauses in trades/money/arbitration and so forth, but one thing I don't understand AT ALL is this. Why are the Sox thinking of getting rid of Maggs who is basically the future of this club in my mind and has been rock solid for 3 or 4 years. In my opinion, this team is near perfect, except for a few miner soft spots. Last year we would have been division champs had Manuel not goofed up about 12 or so games. So why do we feel the need to ship off one of our best? If we want to trade someone, why not Rowand, or Harris....

Dadawg_77
11-17-2003, 05:28 PM
Originally posted by HITMEN OF 77
I don't fullly understand all the clauses in trades/money/arbitration and so forth, but one thing I don't understand AT ALL is this. Why are the Sox thinking of getting rid of Maggs who is basically the future of this club in my mind and has been rock solid for 3 or 4 years. In my opinion, this team is near perfect, except for a few miner soft spots. Last year we would have been division champs had Manuel not goofed up about 12 or so games. So why do we feel the need to ship off one of our best? If we want to trade someone, why not Rowand, or Harris....

Because the system dictates Mags isn't apart of the future unless he takes a pay cut.

The arbitrator take in performance and other salaries when considering offers. Daver could talk on this more as he is more familiar with the CBA then I am.

Daver
11-17-2003, 05:43 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Because the system dictates Mags isn't apart of the future unless he takes a pay cut.

The arbitrator take in performance and other salaries when considering offers. Daver could talk on this more as he is more familiar with the CBA then I am.

There is nothing in the CBA that would keep Magglio from signing a contract extension if it is done before Dec. 2004 for less money,the question is would he and his agent agree to do that?

Either way he will collect his 14 mil for 2004.

To sum up arbitration,after a player is offered,and accepts,arbitration,both sides will present their case to an independent arbitor,and the arbitor will set the salary for the next season played,but there is a 20% MAX on any paycut made in the arbitration process,as dictated by the rules contained in the CBA.

ma-gaga
11-17-2003, 05:49 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
I'm completely with you there. I don't understand how much emphasis arbitrators put on the current state of the market compared to deals signed a few years ago. Will Vlad's deal be the basis, Manny's, or something in between?

Or Jim Thome's?

6 years 90 Million. Vlad's minimum. MINIMUM. He'll probably get 100 mill in 6 years. Not Ramerez money, not a-rod money, not barry bonds money, but a ton from someone. He'll probably get 2-3 offers above $90. Baltimore would be foolish not to offer him that. Montreal will probably make him a token offer around $80MM. NYY, NYM, nothin really surprising here. One of the two for sure.

I'd bet at least 3 offers at >$15MM/season.

Magglio will get less than Thome money, but I don't know by how much. He is a year younger than Thome was when he got his deal. It should be close.

hold2dibber
11-17-2003, 05:53 PM
Originally posted by HITMEN OF 77
I don't fullly understand all the clauses in trades/money/arbitration and so forth, but one thing I don't understand AT ALL is this. Why are the Sox thinking of getting rid of Maggs who is basically the future of this club in my mind and has been rock solid for 3 or 4 years. In my opinion, this team is near perfect, except for a few miner soft spots. Last year we would have been division champs had Manuel not goofed up about 12 or so games. So why do we feel the need to ship off one of our best? If we want to trade someone, why not Rowand, or Harris....

The obvious answer is, of course, money. If indeed the Sox payroll in '04 will be under $60 million (as KW has repeatedly said), and if Maggs is not willing to defer a portion of his '04 salary of $14 million and not willing to sign an extension at terms acceptable to the Sox, than the Sox have to at least look at the possibility of trading him. Otherwise, they won't have enough money left to field a competitive team. As I've said elsewhere, if the Sox keep Maggs and don't up the payroll, they almost certainly will not have money to sign a 2B (which means Aaron Miles or Willie Harris is your guy), a CF (which means Willie Harris or Aaron Rowand is your guy), or a starting pitcher (which likely means Jon Rauch and Neil Cotts are your guys). Of you can trade Maggs and use that $14 million to sign (for example), Sidney Ponson ($7 million), Mike Cameron ($5 million) and a good set-up man.

hold2dibber
11-17-2003, 05:57 PM
Originally posted by ma-gaga
Or Jim Thome's?

6 years 90 Million. Vlad's minimum. MINIMUM. He'll probably get 100 mill in 6 years. Not Ramerez money, not a-rod money, not barry bonds money, but a ton from someone. He'll probably get 2-3 offers above $90. Baltimore would be foolish not to offer him that. Montreal will probably make him a token offer around $80MM. NYY, NYM, nothin really surprising here. One of the two for sure.

I'd bet at least 3 offers at >$15MM/season.

Magglio will get less than Thome money, but I don't know by how much. He is a year younger than Thome was when he got his deal. It should be close.

We'll see, but I personally don't think so. I would be very surprised if Vlad got more than $90 million total, and very surprised if his annual salary exceeds $15 million. I think Maggs would be a $10 million/year guy if he was on the market right now. It'll be interesting to see what Sheffield gets.

Dadawg_77
11-17-2003, 05:57 PM
Originally posted by Daver
There is nothing in the CBA that would keep Magglio from signing a contract extension if it is done before Dec. 2004 for less money,the question is would he and his agent agree to do that?

Either way he will collect his 14 mil for 2004.

To sum up arbitration,after a player is offered,and accepts,arbitration,both sides will present their case to an independent arbitor,and the arbitor will set the salary for the next season played,but there is a 20% MAX on any paycut made in the arbitration process,as dictated by the rules contained in the CBA.

I believe he won't sign a contract extension since it wouldn't be worth it to him. The Sox can't offer arbitration because of the 20% max cut. Mag at 14 million dollars salary isn't with in the salary structure of current MLB labor market.

RichH55
11-17-2003, 08:55 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
I believe he won't sign a contract extension since it wouldn't be worth it to him. The Sox can't offer arbitration because of the 20% max cut. Mag at 14 million dollars salary isn't with in the salary structure of current MLB labor market.


3 years 30 sounds about right to me.....cost certainty is something to look at

ma-gaga
11-17-2003, 09:37 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
We'll see, but I personally don't think so. I would be very surprised if Vlad got more than $90 million total, and very surprised if his annual salary exceeds $15 million. I think Maggs would be a $10 million/year guy if he was on the market right now. It'll be interesting to see what Sheffield gets.

If Colon is holding out for more than 12 mil a year, I'm pretty sure that someone will sign a 28 year old stud OF for more than what Colon will get.

Plus it looks like Vlad made $11.5 in 2003. (bottom right of this page) (http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/guerrvl01.shtml) The Braves/Yankees are looking for a RF and there's only one Sheffield to sign. LA needs offense, Baltimore needs offense, Montreal can't really afford to lose their star. NYM are always in inferiority mode against their big brother Yankees, and would love to make a splash.

I'd be shocked if he doesn't get the offers. Now Vlad sounds like a good kid and may resign with Montreal for less than $90MM. But like you said, we'll see what happens.

Maggs most similar players per baseball-reference:
Bobby Abreu OF PHI Signed Feb 2002 - 5 years/$64M
Mike Sweeney 1B/DH KAN Signed Mar 2001 - 5 years/$55M
Brian Giles PIT $45.0M over 5 years ('02-'06)

so... maybe you're right. Maggs might be a 10-12 per year contract.
hmmph.
I hate arguing one position, then researching it and finding out I might be wrong...

:)

HITMEN OF 77
11-18-2003, 11:19 AM
So is Konerko staying here now? I know there was a lot of talk a while back about trading him. I know I will get a lot of heat for this, but I hope he stays, I like the guy. He will have a great year this year (I hope). Plus I just named my bassett hound puppy Konerko, that would be a waste if he was traded.

hold2dibber
11-18-2003, 12:38 PM
Originally posted by HITMEN OF 77
So is Konerko staying here now?

My guess (and is just a guess) is that the Sox would love to trade him, but won't be able to. So he's probably staying - in which case, I certainly hope you're right about what he'll do in '04.

akingamongstmen
11-18-2003, 01:04 PM
I think people need to back off of P.K. for awhile. He's not going to be traded, so the best we can hope for is a return to form. Besides, he's a genuinely good guy, and he really seems to care about his performance (which is refreshing). Some guys will sign a big deal and pretty much mail it in for a couple of years. We had a guy like that once. His name was Jaime Navarro. Now, let us never speak his name again.

RichH55
11-19-2003, 02:58 AM
Originally posted by akingamongstmen
I think people need to back off of P.K. for awhile. He's not going to be traded, so the best we can hope for is a return to form. Besides, he's a genuinely good guy, and he really seems to care about his performance (which is refreshing). Some guys will sign a big deal and pretty much mail it in for a couple of years. We had a guy like that once. His name was Jaime Navarro. Now, let us never speak his name again.

A) Is Dan Micheli(or whatever the hell his name is) the biggest named signed this offseason?( Been a bunch of trades)

The offseason is FAR from over, and PK is a drain, makes sense to "hope" we can move him....if He is still here when Spring Training breaks, then maybe we can work on getting past denial and toward acceptance

B) Ummmm that wasn't mailing it in? PK is slow, but no one is as slow as him going to 1B on a grounder(IE he isn't exactly busting his ass)

He looked like a deer in headlights out there