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ondafarm
11-14-2003, 07:34 AM
This may not be popular but Carlos Lee is who the White Sox should consider trading. He just came off a solid offensive season and would bring good value. He is not as valuable to the Sox offense as Maggs or the Big Hurt (see Sagarin rankings http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alb03.htm .) Lee's defense is, as usual, pretty bad and his baserunning is barely adequate.

The three big advantages for the White Sox: a)keep Maggs, b)get a solid starting pitcher and c)clear space for the logjam of developing outfield talent.

CLee is eligible for arbitration and seem penciled in at $6.5 million. Sure other guys look like a drag on the budget (Konerko and Koch) but trading them when their value is low is not smart. Remove that and the Sox can probably afford the $14 mill for Ordonez, now and for the next four years.

The Sox need to solidify their starting rotation. Trading a slugger for starting pitching may not be a popular move but it is what playoff bound teams do. The Sox should easily win the central. Can they get past the Red Sox, Yankees, Seattle and Oakland is what will determine if they get to a World Series.

The Sox have several players approaching or at the level where they should contend for starting playing time in the outfield. Reed, Borchard, Rowand and Harris. Plan on platooning in LF and CF and you may have a plan. Lineup would look like this:

1. Harris/Rowand (against righty/lefty)
2. Alomar
3. Thomas
4. Ordonez
5. Konerko/Daubach
6. Valentin/Graffanino
7. Crede
8. Reed/Borchard
9. Olivo/S.Alomar

This leaves plenty of pop in the lineup, but adds speed. The defense is well ahead of last year's. And with platooning your pitch hitters are always sharp and defensive replacements always ready. Plus, ((attention KW and JR)) this lineup is pretty cheap to field with 9 of the 14 players under $1 million. I'm including: Harris, Rowand, Daubach, Graffanino, Crede, Reed, Borchard, Olivo and S.Alomar in that category. The other five make $14-Mags, $6-Thomas, Konerko $5-Valentin and $2-R.Alomar. Total non-pitching budget, under $40 million.

Sure, I'd love to trade Konerko as well, but he won't bring much until he gets that sweet swing back. He will and the Sox should ride him through that time.

soxruleEP
11-14-2003, 09:33 AM
>>Lee's defense is, as usual, pretty bad and his base-running is barely adequate.<<

Lee's defense was not "pretty bad." While he doesn't have a great arm, he has improved a great deal. I saw him make many excellent catches this year. His defense is more than adequate, especially considering that he is playing the least important position.

As for his base-running, he doesn't have great instincts, that's for sure.

joepoe
11-14-2003, 09:40 AM
Originally posted by ondafarm
This may not be popular but Carlos Lee is who the White Sox should consider trading. He just came off a solid offensive season and would bring good value. He is not as valuable to the Sox offense as Maggs or the Big Hurt (see Sagarin rankings http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alb03.htm .) Lee's defense is, as usual, pretty bad and his baserunning is barely adequate.
...

I had never seen these rankings before, thanks. Cripes, Frank is ranked 6th and Maggs 11th, but don't worry, THEY WILL PLAY OZZIE'S WAY, eh?

http://hometown.aol.com/joepoe/images/ozzie1.bmp

joepoe
11-14-2003, 09:40 AM
Originally posted by ondafarm
This may not be popular but Carlos Lee is who the White Sox should consider trading. He just came off a solid offensive season and would bring good value. He is not as valuable to the Sox offense as Maggs or the Big Hurt (see Sagarin rankings http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alb03.htm .) Lee's defense is, as usual, pretty bad and his baserunning is barely adequate.
...

CLee has a lot of upside, imho Keep him and dump that piano lugger Konerko!

daveeym
11-14-2003, 09:42 AM
Do we really need to start the great stat debates all over again? Since it appears the sox are resigned to trade one or more of their money men, sure trade Lee over Mags, you're nuts if you want Thomas over Lee though. And yes mr. sagarin knows all and RPG is THE stat that proves everthing.

Randar68
11-14-2003, 09:48 AM
Originally posted by joepoe
I had never seen these rankings before, thanks. Cripes, Frank is ranked 6th and Maggs 11th, but don't worry, THEY WILL PLAY OZZIE'S WAY, eh?


How dare you be skeptical or say anything negative...

Always Nay-saying, everything I create!!!!!!!

CubKilla
11-14-2003, 11:27 AM
Originally posted by daveeym
you're nuts if you want Thomas over Lee though.

Agreed. Lee is young and has shown plenty of upside. Frank is entering his twilight and if Frank doesn't revert back to the Frank of old..... the ball sprayer and not the HR hitter..... Frank's Sagarin Stats will go right down the old poop chute like his BA the past couple of years.

jabrch
11-14-2003, 11:47 AM
Here's the problem...

If you trade Lee, you clear off a 6.5mm LF and replace him with Reed/Borchard, a risky option as neither has ever contributed on the MLB level and neither are stone-cold-locks to do so anymore. The 6mm that you save hardly gets you Sidney Ponson to take our 3rd starter spot, much less get you a shot at bidding on a legit #1SP, Luis Castillo, Tom Gordon, etc. It also gets you in return for the trade, a marginal prospect. You don't get anything too studly for Carlos Lee.

Trading Mags frees off 14mm from your cap, gets you a shot at a guy like Soriano or Johnson, has you dealing with the Yanks who may also take a GIDPK/Krotch contract and may even give you some other legit options in the deal (Weaver? Johnson?)


I'd hate to lose Mags, but if we could trade him, along with PK and get Soriano, Johnson and Weaver, freeing up well over 15mm in salary to go after a stud FA, filling a hole at 2B with a young star, filling a hole at 1B/DH with a young potential star, and getting a possible 5th starter, I'd miss Mags - but not as much as I would welcome the new additions.

(Incidentally, even if he were an opponent, he is the kind of guy I would always be able to cheer for.)

Randar68
11-14-2003, 12:04 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
I'd hate to lose Mags, but if we could trade him, along with PK and get Soriano, Johnson and Weaver, freeing up well over 15mm in salary to go after a stud FA, filling a hole at 2B with a young star, filling a hole at 1B/DH with a young potential star, and getting a possible 5th starter, I'd miss Mags - but not as much as I would welcome the new additions.

(Incidentally, even if he were an opponent, he is the kind of guy I would always be able to cheer for.)

Bingo. There are only 2-3 teams that would trade for Maggs and be able to return value. You can't trade him to a cash-strapped team that is going to be so hamstrung by the salary they have negotiating leverage and you can't trade him to anyone who isn't willing to sign him long-term.

Not that it is realistic, but IF you're going to trade Maggs, getting Soriano and Johnson in return would be beyond a no-brainer. Any other salary-dump or trading of contract to get PK/Koch out of here is icing on the cake, IMO.

Brian26
11-14-2003, 12:07 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
(Incidentally, even if Mags were an opponent, he is the kind of guy I would always be able to cheer for.)


Kind of like Ventura. How can you root against him?

Deadguy
11-14-2003, 12:49 PM
Originally posted by daveeym
Do we really need to start the great stat debates all over again?


Why are there even debates about it? I haven't seen any legitimate arguments as to why they should be ignored.

Since it appears the sox are resigned to trade one or more of their money men, sure trade Lee over Mags, you're nuts if you want Thomas over Lee though. And yes mr. sagarin knows all and RPG is THE stat that proves everthing.

Yes, Mr. Sagarin is a Frankophile. He developed this formula years ago to give baseball fans the illusion that Frank is still a productive player, while at the same time, downgrading Carlos Lee's offensive value.

Stats used responsibly offer a good way to compare players from the same or different eras objectively.

Here's two other sources that back up the fact that Magglio and Frank were more valuable offensively than Lee, in 2003:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/eqa.html#tmsort
http://www.baseballgraphs.com/teams/whitesox.html

These are all objective, unbiased sources that back up our claims.

But then again, we all know that Bill James, Clay Davenport, and Jeff Sagarin are all Frankophiles who conspired to create the illusion that Thomas was actually an asset to the team in 2003.

ondafarm
11-14-2003, 01:33 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
IF you're going to trade Maggs, getting Soriano and Johnson in return would be beyond a no-brainer. Any other salary-dump or trading of contract to get PK/Koch out of here is icing on the cake, IMO.

I wouldn't take Soriano if the Yanks were giving him away. His Questec numbers are 40 points below his non-Q numbers on BA, OBP and SLG. That means take him out of a Yankee uniform and he he is worthless.

ondafarm
11-14-2003, 01:35 PM
Originally posted by Deadguy
But then again, we all know that Bill James, Clay Davenport, and Jeff Sagarin are all Frankophiles who conspired to create the illusion that Thomas was actually an asset to the team in 2003. [/COLOR]

Or perhaps he really was an asset and you just read to much Moronotti and suck him up. Frank is not just an asset, he's the most valuable offensive asset, bar none. Mind you, thats not the same as calling him the most valuable player.

cwsox
11-14-2003, 01:38 PM
I am just posting to say NO to trading CLee. If every Sox player improved as much as he does from season to season we'd have no worries. He has a lot of great years ahead of him and they may as well be for us.

jabrch
11-14-2003, 01:39 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Not that it is realistic, but IF you're going to trade Maggs, getting Soriano and Johnson in return would be beyond a no-brainer. Any other salary-dump or trading of contract to get PK/Koch out of here is icing on the cake, IMO.

Heck, you don't even have to give me Johnson. Give me Soriano for Mags and I am more than content. I don't want to lose Mags, but adding Soriano would ease my pain a great deal.

With that 14mm free, I'd make a push for 2 SPs (Milwood, Pettite or Colon to go with Ponson)

C- Olivo
1B/DH Frank/PK/Johnson/Daubach/FA
2B - Soriano
SS - Manos
3B - Crede
LF - CLee
CF and RF - Cameron/Reed/Borchard/Rowand/Everett

SP1 FA
SP2 Buehrle
SP3 Loaiza
SP4 Ponson
SP5 Garland


Not bad...who knwos?

ondafarm
11-14-2003, 01:42 PM
Originally posted by cwsox
I am just posting to say NO to trading CLee. If every Sox player improved as much as he does from season to season we'd have no worries. He has a lot of great years ahead of him and they may as well be for us.

Do you think he will improve that much again?

jabrch
11-14-2003, 01:51 PM
Originally posted by ondafarm
I wouldn't take Soriano if the Yanks were giving him away. His Questec numbers are 40 points below his non-Q numbers on BA, OBP and SLG. That means take him out of a Yankee uniform and he he is worthless.

What?

Soriano's stats at home
.274 .325 .480 .805 with 15HR, 19SB, 52R and 42RBI

Soriano on the road
.306 .350 .567 .917 with 23HR, 16SB, 62R and 42RBI

How does taking him out of a Yankee uniform make him worthless? He performs better OUTSIDE of Yankee stadium.


This guy is a 40/40 candidate who has a .284 average in 3 years as a starter with solid all around numbers. He is clearly not a leadoff hitter as he Ks too much.

Can you name 5 guys that we have a reasonable chance of getting to play 2B for us next year that you would chose over this guy? I cant. I can only name one who is close - Castillo.

ondafarm
11-14-2003, 02:17 PM
Soriano's non-Q numbers

BA .280 OBP .318 SLG .338


Ain't worth having.

ondafarm
11-14-2003, 02:51 PM
Also, if you think Soriano and his whiffs would help, read this.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/statitudes/11/14/strikeouts.bad/index.html

Twin Killing
11-14-2003, 11:55 PM
Originally posted by ondafarm



Lineup would look like this:

1. Harris/Rowand (against righty/lefty)
2. Alomar
3. Thomas
4. Ordonez
5. Konerko/Daubach
6. Valentin/Graffanino
7. Crede
8. Reed/Borchard
9. Olivo/S.Alomar



With this lineup we'd be a lock for 3rd place in the AL Central.

Tragg
11-15-2003, 09:09 AM
Originally posted by ondafarm


1. Harris/Rowand (against righty/lefty)
2. Alomar
3. Thomas
4. Ordonez
5. Konerko/Daubach
6. Valentin/Graffanino
7. Crede
8. Reed/Borchard
9. Olivo/S.Alomar



Is Daubach really going to be on this club next year? He was awful.
That lineup - agree with the comment above - probably can stay ahead of the tigers and tribe for one more season.

ondafarm
11-15-2003, 11:09 AM
Originally posted by Twin Killing
With this lineup we'd be a lock for 3rd place in the AL Central.

Only if the Yanks and Red Sox move to the central.

There's a lot more speed and much more solid defense both of which were reasons the Sox lost a lot of games last year.

Twin Killing
11-15-2003, 11:26 AM
Originally posted by ondafarm
Only if the Yanks and Red Sox move to the central.

There's a lot more speed and much more solid defense both of which were reasons the Sox lost a lot of games last year.

At least one of the two leadoff hitters can't hit .200 in the biggs. Perhaps both.

2 thru 4 is weaker than last year with the loss of C Lee.

5 thru 9 looks pretty impotent unless Crede has a bustout season or Reed is ready to step up. It's asking a lot.

Add the loss of Colon and this doesn't look promising.

You seem brainwashed by JR/KW into thinking the Sox can compete with this low budget lineup. It'll take more than improved defense and speed.

ondafarm
11-15-2003, 02:51 PM
Originally posted by Twin Killing
At least one of the two leadoff hitters can't hit .200 in the biggs. Perhaps both.

2 thru 4 is weaker than last year with the loss of C Lee.

5 thru 9 looks pretty impotent unless Crede has a bustout season or Reed is ready to step up. It's asking a lot.

Add the loss of Colon and this doesn't look promising.

You seem brainwashed by JR/KW into thinking the Sox can compete with this low budget lineup. It'll take more than improved defense and speed.

Harris and Rowand both hit more than .200 in the bigs. They are not ideal lead-off hitters but Harris against righties and Rowand against lefties both get on base at respectable clips. If Harris is being worked with, he can only continue to improve.

2 thru 4 is the same as last year.

Crede and Olivo should both be respectable, Reed and Borchard deserve their chances and protected like this (righty-lefty) they should produce.

You seem to ignore facts. CLee is at the peak of his trade value and is not an incredibly valuable hitter. His defense still stinks and his head is never in the game.

RichH55
11-15-2003, 04:18 PM
Originally posted by ondafarm
Only if the Yanks and Red Sox move to the central.

There's a lot more speed and much more solid defense both of which were reasons the Sox lost a lot of games last year.


Pitching wins...Hitting wins...>Defense appeals to the purists

If you shaved .1 off each players 40 time I doubt we even win one extra ballgame......Score more runs than the other team, and have your pitchers give up less runs...that helps more


All things being equal would more defense and speed help? Duh....but giving up 50 points of OBP and 60 of Slugging isn't exactly a trade-off you want to make

RichH55
11-15-2003, 04:19 PM
Originally posted by ondafarm
Harris and Rowand both hit more than .200 in the bigs. They are not ideal lead-off hitters but Harris against righties and Rowand against lefties both get on base at respectable clips. If Harris is being worked with, he can only continue to improve.

2 thru 4 is the same as last year.

Crede and Olivo should both be respectable, Reed and Borchard deserve their chances and protected like this (righty-lefty) they should produce.

You seem to ignore facts. CLee is at the peak of his trade value and is not an incredibly valuable hitter. His defense still stinks and his head is never in the game.


I agree with most of this...except his defense no longer "stinks" (not like LF D matters all that much anyway)...and saying his head is never in the game is just mindless hyperbole that does little to further the arguement

However, he very well could be at peak trade value and dealing him is certainly an avenue to look into

ondafarm
11-15-2003, 08:50 PM
Originally posted by RichH55
Score more runs than the other team, and have your pitchers give up less runs...

Well, anytime you score more runs than the other team you tend to win.

MRKARNO
11-15-2003, 09:17 PM
Originally posted by ondafarm
Well, anytime you score more runs than the other team you tend to win.

IIRC, the royals managed to win 86 games while being outscored by about 40 runs on the year.....But in general this rule is almost always true

Twin Killing
11-16-2003, 10:42 AM
Originally posted by ondafarm
Harris and Rowand both hit more than .200 in the bigs. They are not ideal lead-off hitters but Harris against righties and Rowand against lefties both get on base at respectable clips. If Harris is being worked with, he can only continue to improve.

2 thru 4 is the same as last year.

Crede and Olivo should both be respectable, Reed and Borchard deserve their chances and protected like this (righty-lefty) they should produce.

You seem to ignore facts. CLee is at the peak of his trade value and is not an incredibly valuable hitter. His defense still stinks and his head is never in the game.

So it's a FACT that Harris "being worked with" will produce. IMO he's a piece of crap. It's a FACT that Reed and Borchard will produce. I've never seen Reed play, but certainly like his minor league numbers last year. Producing at the major league level next year is a big question mark. Possible, but a question mark. Nothing about Borchard's season last year suggest he ready to step up. I have no problem with either Olivo or Crede.

What is a FACT is that Lee hit .291 with 31HRs and 113 RBIs. While that may not be "incredibly valuable" to you, it is a fact. In addition, his defense improved considerably. Seems to me like you are the one ignoring the facts.

I'm not opposed to trading anyone if it improves the team. I don't think what you are suggesting here does that. All it does is allow JR to field a low budget team and pretend to want to be competitive.

ondafarm
11-16-2003, 11:48 AM
Originally posted by Twin Killing
So it's a FACT that Harris "being worked with" will produce. IMO he's a piece of crap. It's a FACT that Reed and Borchard will produce. I've never seen Reed play, but certainly like his minor league numbers last year. Producing at the major league level next year is a big question mark. Possible, but a question mark. Nothing about Borchard's season last year suggest he ready to step up. I have no problem with either Olivo or Crede.

What is a FACT is that Lee hit .291 with 31HRs and 113 RBIs. While that may not be "incredibly valuable" to you, it is a fact. In addition, his defense improved considerably. Seems to me like you are the one ignoring the facts.

The facts are I've watched Harris a great deal since the Sox acquired him, his AAA hitting was excellent and with some coaching and learning to play a speed game he'll do fine. Against righties he was solid last year. I have seen Reed play. If he is protected well by a smart major league manager he'd be fine making the jump just like Cabrera did for the Marlins last year. Borchard is ready to come back. Give him steady play and he'll be fine.

The FACT is Lee hits .225 in close and late situations. His first up number is .254. He's not a smart player and not the guy you want uo there when the game is on the line. That is where I base my evaluation. His defense has improved considerably, but it had a long way to go. It still does. After the season he had, he will never have a higher trading value. He is definately not a "grinder".