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Lip Man 1
11-09-2003, 12:49 PM
With the general manager's meetings set to begin Peter Gammons on ESPN.com has a new column. It has three items involving the White Sox which I post here for discusion. I also have a question after the three items.

The Mets will see if the White Sox will swap Billy Koch's $6.375 million contract for Roger Cedeno and his remaining $10.6 million, split the difference and reunite Koch with pitching coach Rick Peterson.

Paul Konerko , Jim Edmonds, J.D. Drew, Odalis Perez, Eric Milton, Mike Lowell, Derrek Lee, A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia are all players whose names -- and contracts -- will be mentioned.

The White Sox, whose three-year, $36 million offer to Bartolo Colon was far less in present day value because of stacked deferrals at no interest, have serious payroll issues.

My question is can the "financial individuals" like I think, Trader Tim and gosox41 who were pointing out all the positives to the Sox deferred money offer to Colon please explain the financial reprocussions of Gammons statement? What does his comment mean? And given the context of the comment and the past positives that were stated can someone explain WHY Colon and his agent quickly said "no."

Forgive my simple stupidity but without any specific financial information to clarify things it sounds like another Uncle Jerry inspired "shell game," that Bartolo and his agent quickly saw through.

The floors open for discussion.

Lip

CubKilla
11-09-2003, 12:55 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
The White Sox, whose three-year, $36 million offer to Bartolo Colon was far less in present day value because of stacked deferrals at no interest, have serious payroll issues.

Typical Reinsy move. The whole point to deferrals is the interest. If this is correct, did Reinsy seriously believe Colon would accept an, "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a burger today"..... with not one penny in interest..... deal? JR offereing a 3yr/$36 million deal should have been red flag number one for Sox fans.

Good luck wherever you land Bartolo :angry:

crector
11-09-2003, 01:13 PM
Frankly, I was relieved to find out that Colon had rejected the Sox offer. Considering that his strikeouts were in decline and that he only won 15 games or so for us, the Sox offer, deferred money or not, was simply too much. Especially since if Colon accepted the deal, then the resulting strain on the Sox payroll would almost certainly have resulted in the trading off of at least 1 of our big guns.

We can get better pitchers than Colon and at a more cost effective price. Hopefully, we can get quality pitchers and keep C. Lee and Magglio too.

ChiWhiteSox1337
11-09-2003, 01:26 PM
roger cedeno? Yuck, I think I'd rather have the sox take their chances to see if Koch can return to the form that won him the AL relief pitcher of the year award in 2002.

TaylorStSox
11-09-2003, 01:35 PM
Agreed. I'd also rather take the risk with Koch than have Cedeno. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Koch started out the year throwing fireballs.

TraderTim
11-09-2003, 01:43 PM
Lip:

Without further info on the actual contract, I can only offer this:

No matter what Gammons says, IF the entire contract was deferred for three years, that is, he got nothing until after he finished playing the three years, the contract was still worth in "present value" well over $30 million over three years.

Now, I doubt that was what was on the table. More likely: Something like $7 mill now and $5 deferred until the end of the contract for each year. Net difference, it probably is worth about $32 mill and a bit over 3 years, once you figure in the interest Colon would have to pay to a bank to make the contract a "cash" contract. That still ain't a bad deal.

Have you considered that Gammons made such a big deal about predicting Colon was going to accept the Sox offer, and now he is wiping the egg off his face by making the standard comments regarding the deal, that is, parroting the agent's line citing how the deferred payments weren't acceptable?

Is it possible the deferred payments were stretched over a longer period of time? Sure. I'd have no idea but something odd like that would likely have been brought up by the agent in public.

I think Gammons is covering his incorrect report and Colon's agent has advised his client to stand pat and be quiet until other offers emerge [or don't] and then see where they stand. Note that although the agent has intimated the deal was unacceptable, I have yet to hear the agent say anything bad about the Sox or that his client had no further interest.

That's the best I can do without further actual contract details.

Forkit!

doublem23
11-09-2003, 01:51 PM
Wow... We've hit the point that we're listening to Gammons now? I'd say rock bottom, but that's even too dignified.

jeremyb1
11-09-2003, 02:23 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
Agreed. I'd also rather take the risk with Koch than have Cedeno. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Koch started out the year throwing fireballs.

I don't understand why we'd take on 8 million of Cedeno's contract to move 6 million of Koch's contract. Cedeno has been every bit as bad as Koch was last season for the past three seasons. Who wants a horrendous left fielder with an OPS below .700? The only potential benefit is that we'd save 2 million dollars in payroll this season even though we pay an extra 2 million over the next two seasons. However, I can't believe 2 million in payroll this season is helpful enough to justify paying more money for Cedeno than Koch in the long run. I can't believe there's anyway we'd do that deal. If they picked up the entire difference in the salaries maybe there's a slight chance but I highly doubt it.

dickallen15
11-09-2003, 02:30 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
Wow... We've hit the point that we're listening to Gammons now? I'd say rock bottom, but that's even too dignified.
You got that right. Gammons reported a couple weeks ago that the Sox would get the Colon deal done, now this. He needs to make up his mind.

TaylorStSox
11-09-2003, 03:17 PM
He's trying to cover his ass for being wrong. Gammons is such a kiss ass sox hater. He makes me sick. In the beginning of the year, Valentine used to disagree with just about everything he said. I loved it! :)

doublem23
11-09-2003, 03:31 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
I don't understand why we'd take on 8 million of Cedeno's contract to move 6 million of Koch's contract. Cedeno has been every bit as bad as Koch was last season for the past three seasons. Who wants a horrendous left fielder with an OPS below .700? The only potential benefit is that we'd save 2 million dollars in payroll this season even though we pay an extra 2 million over the next two seasons. However, I can't believe 2 million in payroll this season is helpful enough to justify paying more money for Cedeno than Koch in the long run. I can't believe there's anyway we'd do that deal. If they picked up the entire difference in the salaries maybe there's a slight chance but I highly doubt it.

Three words: It's. Peter. Gammons.

I don't understand how this man is still employed to write about baseball.

:boston
My other sources tell me that all 28 teams will forfeit every game next year so that we can finally have the Fenway-Wrigley, I mean, Cubs-Red Sox World Series I creamed in my pants about last year.

minastirith67
11-09-2003, 03:59 PM
Originally posted by crector
Frankly, I was relieved to find out that Colon had rejected the Sox offer. Considering that his strikeouts were in decline and that he only won 15 games or so for us, the Sox offer, deferred money or not, was simply too much. Especially since if Colon accepted the deal, then the resulting strain on the Sox payroll would almost certainly have resulted in the trading off of at least 1 of our big guns.

We can get better pitchers than Colon and at a more cost effective price. Hopefully, we can get quality pitchers and keep C. Lee and Magglio too.

Do you ever say anything positive?

ScottyTheSoxFan
11-09-2003, 04:04 PM
we should take up a collection at every game next year until we can just buy out koch's contract, rather than take on roger cedeno lazyness and big paychecks

crector
11-09-2003, 06:14 PM
Originally posted by minastirith67
Do you ever say anything positive?

What was so negative in saying that I'm glad that we're not going to be employing a pitcher with a declining number of strikeouts like Colon?

KW should be able to come up with a pitcher who's both better than Colon and certainly cheaper too. He did it last year with Loaiza, so he should be able to do it this year as well.

TaylorStSox
11-09-2003, 06:21 PM
That declining number of strikeouts stat can be misleading. There's an arguement that Colon is becoming a more complete pitcher and not trying to strike guys out all the time. That could also be the reason that his homerun numbers have gone up as well. In my opinion, his stuff has gotten better throughout the years. :gulp:

Daver
11-09-2003, 06:46 PM
Originally posted by crector
What was so negative in saying that I'm glad that we're not going to be employing a pitcher with a declining number of strikeouts like Colon?

.


Let me know when you come up with a way to replace two hundred and forty two innings pitched without signing two starting pitchers to do it.

TraderTim
11-09-2003, 07:06 PM
Man...

I'd really like Colon to pitch in a Sox uniform next year...

He eats innings and he can just plain bring it!

I know some people question whether he is out there all the time giving it his all...but sheesh! He's a pitching machine. That's a ton of innings!

I think the Sox gave him a fair offer. I wish he'd say yes! If he isn't inundated with cash from George, I hope the Sox revisit with him and his agent and try to work forward from the original offer to get him back on board.

Forkit!

Lip Man 1
11-09-2003, 07:39 PM
I'm amazed at the attitude of some who say "well since Peter Gammons said it, it's wrong...or we can ignore it."

The bottom line is Colon rejected a "legitimate" Sox offer...WHY?

Gammons says it's because of deferred money without interest.

Instead of dismissing the quote because of who said it, why don't you answer my original question.

My opinion (and that's all this is) is that this was another one of the bizarre Reinsdorfian scemes like the "pay for production" contracts in the late 80's that were thrown out by baseball's arbitrator, the Frank Thomas "diminished skills" contract and the published report that the Sox were interested in Alex Rodriguez but only if Uncle Jerry was allowed to speak with him without his agent Scott Boras present. (and you wonder why ARod blew the Sox off?)

Just once can't the Sox stop the BS and make a serious, legit offer to a prime free agent without all the strings attached? others teams do it, why can't the Sox?

If the Sox said to Bartolo, "here's 36 million for three years...no clauses, no strings, no goofyness," don't you think he'd take it, especially in what is considered to be a tight market?

Lip

Brian26
11-09-2003, 07:48 PM
Does the Albert Belle signing before the 1997 season count?

Daver
11-09-2003, 07:49 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1


Just once can't the Sox stop the BS and make a serious, legit offer to a prime free agent without all the strings attached? others teams do it, why can't the Sox?


Every other team does the exact same thing the Sox do,they try to maximize the dollars over a longer period than the contract calls for.The Diamanondbacks are still paying players from the their championship team that are no longer with the organization.

And Gammons is getting dismissed for the simple fact that he made the mistake of reversing his opinion in a one week span,contradicting yourself is not the best way to get people to have faith in what you have to say.

FarWestChicago
11-09-2003, 07:49 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
I'm amazed at the attitude of some who say "well since Peter Gammons said it, it's wrong...or we can ignore it.":boston

Lip's right. It's not like I was the only guy that predicted Dewey would defeat Truman!

joecrede
11-09-2003, 07:54 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
The bottom line is Colon rejected a "legitimate" Sox offer...WHY?

That Colon rejected the offer is not proof that it was not an excellent one. Lip, I know you do not like Reinsdorf, but even you must shake your head over Colon turning down an offer in excess of $30M over three years.

Reinsdorf deserves a lot of credit for stepping up here.

guillen4life13
11-09-2003, 08:22 PM
Originally posted by joecrede
Lip, I know you do not like Reinsdorf, but even you must shake your head over Colon turning down an offer in excess of $30M over three years.

I think that that's what Lip's point is. It's not $30M over 3 years. It's $30M over an undisclosed amount of years that exceeds three.

Bartolo wants his money down, not deferred.



And if you want my honest opinion, I don't think a single professional baseball player deserves to make any more than $3M a year, because of a slew of reasons that I would think are quite obvious.

SoxxoS
11-09-2003, 08:42 PM
Originally posted by Daver
Every other team does the exact same thing the Sox do,they try to maximize the dollars over a longer period than the contract calls for.The Diamanondbacks are still paying players from the their championship team that are no longer with the organization.


I'll take the world championship and salary cap hell for 5 years after that, thank you very much.

gosox41
11-09-2003, 09:12 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
With the general manager's meetings set to begin Peter Gammons on ESPN.com has a new column. It has three items involving the White Sox which I post here for discusion. I also have a question after the three items.

The Mets will see if the White Sox will swap Billy Koch's $6.375 million contract for Roger Cedeno and his remaining $10.6 million, split the difference and reunite Koch with pitching coach Rick Peterson.

Paul Konerko , Jim Edmonds, J.D. Drew, Odalis Perez, Eric Milton, Mike Lowell, Derrek Lee, A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia are all players whose names -- and contracts -- will be mentioned.

The White Sox, whose three-year, $36 million offer to Bartolo Colon was far less in present day value because of stacked deferrals at no interest, have serious payroll issues.

My question is can the "financial individuals" like I think, Trader Tim and gosox41 who were pointing out all the positives to the Sox deferred money offer to Colon please explain the financial reprocussions of Gammons statement? What does his comment mean? And given the context of the comment and the past positives that were stated can someone explain WHY Colon and his agent quickly said "no."

Forgive my simple stupidity but without any specific financial information to clarify things it sounds like another Uncle Jerry inspired "shell game," that Bartolo and his agent quickly saw through.

The floors open for discussion.

Lip

With the low interest rates, there is little effect of deferring the money. Maybe something happened in the negotiations we don't know about. maybe the Sox gave Colon a deadline. Maybe the Yanks or Red Sox say something to his agent like "Before you sign anything speak to us." Nothing surprises me anymore.

Bob

Daver
11-09-2003, 09:15 PM
Originally posted by gosox41
With the low interest rates, there is little effect of deferring the money. Maybe something happened in the negotiations we don't know about. maybe the Sox gave Colon a deadline. Maybe the Yanks or Red Sox say something to his agent like "Before you sign anything speak to us." Nothing surprises me anymore.

Bob

Ummm that would be tampering,I doubt that is the case.

TornLabrum
11-09-2003, 09:25 PM
Originally posted by gosox41
With the low interest rates, there is little effect of deferring the money.

What's 3% of $36,000,000?

Hangar18
11-09-2003, 09:28 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
I don't understand why we'd take on 8 million of Cedeno's contract to move 6 million of Koch's contract. Cedeno has been every bit as bad as Koch was last season for the past three seasons. Who wants a horrendous left fielder with an OPS below .700? The only potential benefit is that we'd save 2 million dollars in payroll this season even though we pay an extra 2 million over the next two seasons.

One would think that the SOX would Learn From their Mistakes.
EVERY SINGLE TIME WE MAKE A TRADE, thats purely inspired by Salary, We ALWAYS get the short end of the deal.

Hangar18
11-09-2003, 09:31 PM
Originally posted by TaylorStSox
That declining number of strikeouts stat can be misleading. There's an arguement that Colon is becoming a more complete pitcher and not trying to strike guys out all the time. That could also be the reason that his homerun numbers have gone up as well. In my opinion, his stuff has gotten better throughout the years. :gulp:

Thats a Good Point man ...........

1951Campbell
11-09-2003, 09:41 PM
Originally posted by TornLabrum
What's 3% of $36,000,000?

$1,080,000.

MRKARNO
11-09-2003, 10:07 PM
Koch for Cedeno defeats the purpose of unloading Koch's salary. I for one do not want Cedeno at any cost. I would be pissed if they made that move and I'd boo him.

cornball
11-09-2003, 10:26 PM
Originally posted by TraderTim
Lip:

Without further info on the actual contract, I can only offer this:

No matter what Gammons says, IF the entire contract was deferred for three years, that is, he got nothing until after he finished playing the three years, the contract was still worth in "present value" well over $30 million over three years.

Now, I doubt that was what was on the table. More likely: Something like $7 mill now and $5 deferred until the end of the contract for each year. Net difference, it probably is worth about $32 mill and a bit over 3 years, once you figure in the interest Colon would have to pay to a bank to make the contract a "cash" contract. That still ain't a bad deal.

Have you considered that Gammons made such a big deal about predicting Colon was going to accept the Sox offer, and now he is wiping the egg off his face by making the standard comments regarding the deal, that is, parroting the agent's line citing how the deferred payments weren't acceptable?

Is it possible the deferred payments were stretched over a longer period of time? Sure. I'd have no idea but something odd like that would likely have been brought up by the agent in public.

I think Gammons is covering his incorrect report and Colon's agent has advised his client to stand pat and be quiet until other offers emerge [or don't] and then see where they stand. Note that although the agent has intimated the deal was unacceptable, I have yet to hear the agent say anything bad about the Sox or that his client had no further interest.

That's the best I can do without further actual contract details.

Forkit!

I think what Colon and his agent were referring to is the value of the deal ...in that....the value of a dollar today is worth less tomorrow and so on.. .i have the chart and my financial calcuator at work but it may not be the type of money he could get now.

Brian26
11-09-2003, 10:37 PM
Originally posted by 1951Campbell
$1,080,000.

That's enough to cover the tab at Mr. Beef for Bartolo and Konerko, but what about the beer money?

doublem23
11-09-2003, 11:54 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
I'm amazed at the attitude of some who say "well since Peter Gammons said it, it's wrong...or we can ignore it."


That's cool, man. I'm amazed at how people can still confuse Peter Gammons with and a credible journalist, so I guess we're even.

gosox41
11-10-2003, 07:18 AM
Originally posted by Hangar18
One would think that the SOX would Learn From their Mistakes.
EVERY SINGLE TIME WE MAKE A TRADE, thats purely inspired by Salary, We ALWAYS get the short end of the deal.

Maybe I misread, but I thought the trade was Koch for Cedeno and they'd split the difference in contracts. Cedeno is owed $4.3 mill more then Koch, so each team would pony up $2.15 mill. Cedeno's contract is over 2 years so it owuld cost them just over 1 million per out of pocket.

I may have misread the trade. If the Sox could ditch Koch and save $5 mill this season I'm all for it., If the Sox have are just going to add up the two contracts and split the difference then I'm 100% against the trade.

KW couldn't be that dumb, could he?

hold2dibber
11-10-2003, 08:26 AM
Originally posted by crector
KW should be able to come up with a pitcher who's both better than Colon and certainly cheaper too. He did it last year with Loaiza, so he should be able to do it this year as well.

Like who? Its very easy to say "Hey, I know what they should do, instead of spending all that money on Colon, they should get someone better and cheaper!" But finding someone better and cheaper is a whole lot tougher than just saying it. Seriously, I'd like to hear your ideas for who they should get who fits the bill here? And it's not like Loaiza type guys are easy to find. If it were, no one would ever sign any big money free agent pitchers.

jabrch
11-10-2003, 08:40 AM
Anyone know what that means? I guess deferreing 2004 money 3 years, deferring 2005 money 3 years and 2006 money 3 years so he doesn't finish getting paid until 2009. Even if that is the case, the value of the deal nets to between 9 and 10 mm in today's dollars. I guess Bartolo should be able to get 10+ from NYY?

Ultimately, he didn't want to come back here I guess. If he did, this deal wasn't that terrible. JR did what he could to finance the deal so that it was within the MLB debt rules, the teams operating budget and the market rates for SPs. Lets see how things play out.

kempsted
11-10-2003, 12:40 PM
For what it is worth Baseball Prospectus says that Colon turned down this deal - and it is likely the most money he will be offered. They gave no reason why they thought this though.

Dadawg_77
11-10-2003, 12:44 PM
Originally posted by kempsted
For what it is worth Baseball Prospectus says that Colon turned down this deal - and it is likely the most money he will be offered. They gave no reason why they thought this though.

Because no one want to spend this off season. Also it could be the highest reported vaule but not the largest NPV.

MarkEdward
11-10-2003, 01:01 PM
Originally posted by crector
What was so negative in saying that I'm glad that we're not going to be employing a pitcher with a declining number of strikeouts like Colon?


But his strikeouts aren't down!

2002: K/9 IP: 5.8, K/IP: .63.
2003: K/9 IP: 6.4, K/IP: .71

Sure, his K's aren't at his 2000 level, but he's not exactly declining. Plus, his walk rate continues to get lower, which is also a good sign.

seventytwo
11-10-2003, 03:02 PM
I think I'd rather see Billy Koch as our starting centerfielder than deal for Roger Cedeno.

Cedeno doesn't steal bases anymore (mostly because he doesn't get on base anymore.) Also, as an outfielder, he makes Sosa look like Willie Mays.

Butcher.

hold2dibber
11-10-2003, 03:19 PM
Originally posted by seventytwo
I think I'd rather see Billy Koch as our starting centerfielder than deal for Roger Cedeno.

Ha! Perfect. I completely agree. Cedeno is a nightmare.