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View Full Version : Dont trade for Soriano


ondafarm
11-05-2003, 08:54 AM
Lots of hype about the Sox trading Mags and PK for Soriano and Johnson. KW, don't do it!!! Here's why.

Compare the Questec vs. non-Questec numbers. This gives a fairer idea of how they will do ongoing. It also tends to boost the Yankee numbers because Questec includes their home park. Non-Q numbers include old-fashioned (home cooking) umpiring. Questec numbers give the accurate prediction of how a player will do in the coming year.

White Sox numbers at non-Q (road) for 2003:

BA OBP SLG
Frank Thomas .195 .336 .287
Mags Ordonez .323 .396
Carlos Lee .322 .340
Paul Konerko .177 .228

Yankee non-Q road

Alfonso Soriano .316 .353
Nick Johnson .238 .379

Now the Questec numbers (these are more objectively umpired)

BA OBP SLG
Frank Thomas .267 .357 .481
Mags Ordonez .295 .356
Carlos Lee .273 .331
Paul Konerko .265 .328

Yankee Q (includes Yankee Stadium)

Alfonso Soriano .280 .318
Nick Johnson .291 .411

What do these prove? 1) Soriano is all hot air. 2) Konerko's slump was the umpires fault as much as his own. 3) Frank Thomas is the most hated player by umpires (he is justified in glaring at the umpires, not matter what Mariotti says.) 4)Ordonez may not be worth $14 million although he is worth $10 million. 5) Nick Johnson is the real deal, trading Konerko straight up for Johnson would be great for the Sox.

Gumshoe
11-05-2003, 09:23 AM
Because I think this is a cool post, I'll reply. interesting ... where can I learn more about Questec and it's numbers? I think Nick Johnson is solid. I think Magglio is arguably the best RF in baseball. Similarly, Konerko is a fine player. People on this MB dawg him all the time. Why even bother trading him? Low value, and he'll make that up this year when Ozzie straightens things out.

Thomas, I'd trade him for a PENNY. His so called "production" would be picked up by others --- what so many people don't see is his potential to cause problems is big. That said, I think ozzie can get some good things out of him. Just that we need other leaders, not Frank.

Gumshoe

MHOUSE
11-05-2003, 09:25 AM
We're never gonna get Johnson without giving up Maggs. If we dump PK then we'll have to take on salary as well. The league has caught up to Soriano as we saw in the postseason. He struck out a lot, got benched, then moved to ninth in the order. I think PK will come out of his slump, Soriano will continue to suck and not be worth the money. There are cheaper options for 2nd base, we need the money in our pitching not the offense. Maggs should stay forever.

BeerHandle
11-05-2003, 09:30 AM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
Because I think this is a cool post, I'll reply. interesting ... where can I learn more about Questec and it's numbers? I think Nick Johnson is solid. I think Magglio is arguably the best RF in baseball. Similarly, Konerko is a fine player. People on this MB dawg him all the time. Why even bother trading him? Low value, and he'll make that up this year when Ozzie straightens things out.

Thomas, I'd trade him for a PENNY. His so called "production" would be picked up by others --- what so many people don't see is his potential to cause problems is big. That said, I think ozzie can get some good things out of him. Just that we need other leaders, not Frank.

Gumshoe

You said we need more leaders......then why doesn't the "best RF in baseball" step up and become a leader? Maybe then the $14 mil would be worth it!

ondafarm
11-05-2003, 09:41 AM
Originally posted by MHOUSE
We're never gonna get Johnson without giving up Maggs. If we dump PK then we'll have to take on salary as well. . . .I think PK will come out of his slump, . . . Maggs should stay forever.

Actually Johnson for Konerko would help both clubs. At 1B/DH the Yanks have a lot of money tied up in Giambi, a power lefty. Konerko would give them a power righty who will be coming out of his slump. Salarywise this trade would help the Sox and not sink the Yanks.

Maggs should stay forever but the salary issue may cause problems. I think he is worth $14 million but if the Sox impose an artificial small-market budget of $55 million then $14 mill just doesn't fit in. The Sox could be profitable at $75-$90 million budgets although JR will continue to play his penny-wise, pound-foolish games.

Dadawg_77
11-05-2003, 10:06 AM
Originally posted by ondafarm
Actually Johnson for Konerko would help both clubs. At 1B/DH the Yanks have a lot of money tied up in Giambi, a power lefty. Konerko would give them a power righty who will be coming out of his slump. Salarywise this trade would help the Sox and not sink the Yanks.

Maggs should stay forever but the salary issue may cause problems. I think he is worth $14 million but if the Sox impose an artificial small-market budget of $55 million then $14 mill just doesn't fit in. The Sox could be profitable at $75-$90 million budgets although JR will continue to play his penny-wise, pound-foolish games.

First off where did you find those Questec numbers? Second if didn't find them but put them together yourself, my hats off to you.

What this says to me is Frank and Nick know the damn strike zone better then damn umpires do. Honestly the quality of umping has gone drastically down especially behind the plate,since the MLB broke the Umpires union. John Hirssbeck(sp?) became one of the new leaders and well his strike zone just plane sucks. I am for Questec in every park so the Strike Zone can be 18'' across and letter to knees.

ondafarm
11-05-2003, 10:33 AM
I calculated them myself. ESPN does have player summaries and under the splits tab has numbers for each player at each park. Basically, I add up the hits, walks, at bats, strikeouts, etc and calculate the numbers. The only number I can't accurately calculate that way is the OBP because it should include on base due to error even though that number is small. The difference is minimal.

Having said that, I agree with you about the umpiring. I've heard that Tim McClennon has a picture of Frank Thomas with a dartboard super-imposed. Just a rumor, mind you.

Dadawg_77
11-05-2003, 12:14 PM
Originally posted by ondafarm
I calculated them myself. ESPN does have player summaries and under the splits tab has numbers for each player at each park. Basically, I add up the hits, walks, at bats, strikeouts, etc and calculate the numbers. The only number I can't accurately calculate that way is the OBP because it should include on base due to error even though that number is small. The difference is minimal.

Having said that, I agree with you about the umpiring. I've heard that Tim McClennon has a picture of Frank Thomas with a dartboard super-imposed. Just a rumor, mind you.

Actually I don't think OBP includes errors, since the batter didn't get on base on his own accord.

One thing which needs to be done to see if there is a true relation to Questec parks and production from patient hitters, is to figure in Park Effects.

RichH55
11-05-2003, 12:18 PM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
Because I think this is a cool post, I'll reply. interesting ... where can I learn more about Questec and it's numbers? I think Nick Johnson is solid. I think Magglio is arguably the best RF in baseball. Similarly, Konerko is a fine player. People on this MB dawg him all the time. Why even bother trading him? Low value, and he'll make that up this year when Ozzie straightens things out.

Thomas, I'd trade him for a PENNY. His so called "production" would be picked up by others --- what so many people don't see is his potential to cause problems is big. That said, I think ozzie can get some good things out of him. Just that we need other leaders, not Frank.

Gumshoe

Post is for the administrators....how do I filter out Gumshoe's posts? He's either trying to pick fights, or just that stupid...and I could do without either

Dadawg_77
11-05-2003, 12:21 PM
Originally posted by RichH55
Post is for the administrators....how do I filter out Gumshoe's posts? He's either trying to pick fights, or just that stupid...and I could do without either

Click on the name, on the bottom of the poster info there are two links. One says add to buddy list the other says add to iqnore list.

Dadawg_77
11-05-2003, 12:24 PM
Hey one interesting stat going on this Questec spin is Boston. Fenway has Questec and the Red Sox are loaded with patient hitters. They score 55 fewer runs on the road, and lose a .50 slg and .48 OBP on the road. Now the Red Sox can benefit from Fenway, but can all that delta be explained by Fenway or not?

ondafarm
11-05-2003, 12:54 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Hey one interesting stat going on this Questec spin is Boston. Fenway has Questec and the Red Sox are loaded with patient hitters. They score 55 fewer runs on the road, and lose a .50 slg and .48 OBP on the road. Now the Red Sox can benefit from Fenway, but can all that delta be explained by Fenway or not?

I'm presuming you mean .050 slg and .048 obp. Fenway and Yankee stadium are always held up as the parks most different from the average park. Their dimensions are just plain unequal. Yankee stadium favors left handed power hitters (RF was in the 200s for Babe Ruth.)

The run differential you cite is not at all unusual for the Red Sox historically. Most teams do play better at home as well.

Steve Bartman
11-05-2003, 08:40 PM
I read today that the Royals are in hot pursuit of Soriano. The trade would be Beltran for Soriano according to Sports Weekly.

Gumshoe
11-05-2003, 09:31 PM
Originally posted by BeerHandle
You said we need more leaders......then why doesn't the "best RF in baseball" step up and become a leader? Maybe then the $14 mil would be worth it!

I said we need other leaders, not Frank. That means many good solid role models for all our players. To say that Frank is not a time bomb waiting to happen or has been is just not watching the White Sox. I think he can be good, but he needs to be among other guys that talk and get the attention. Maybe Ozzie will help that. (or maybe he won't)

As for the quote, I ask you this:

When you go .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI and can steal bases, play the outfield solidly and never talk or get in trouble, THAT's NOT LEADERSHIP? What game are you guys watching, seriously?

Rich, I mean my comments sincerely, none are for the sole purpose of being incendiary. Just because you can't see that Frank has caused problems by his a) attitude b) intimidation c) lack of versatility, it doesn't mean that I AM stupid. In any case, enjoy my posts. If you can swallow your pride, you might learn something.

Daver
11-05-2003, 09:35 PM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
it doesn't mean that I AM stupid. In any case, enjoy my posts. They are right on.


So you are telling all of us what our opinion should be?

Last time I checked I had the right to develop my own opinion about everything I encountered.