Congrats Frank; Buh Bye Bart - NOW WHAT?

[jabrch]

Now Colon is out of the picture

We now have the following either set or assumed

Cs - 1mm total (Olivo and ?)
1B/DH - PK and Frank 14mm
2B ?
3B - Crede .5mm
SS ?

RF - Mags 14mm
CF Reed .5
LF - Lee about 5mm

SP1-2 5mm total (Buehrle+Loaiza)
SP 3 Garland .5
SP 4-5 ????

Pen - assume about 12mm total


That's 52mm spent needing a 2B, a SS and 2 SPs.

Now that we know Frank is staying, I can only reach the following conclusions

1) Mags is going to be traded (and we will be able to dump either PK or Koch with him)

2) Carlos will be traded and we would dump both of those guys with him

3) We will be going with rookies and bargain basement FAs in the MI

4) We will have crap starters

5) JR is going to raise our salary to 80mm

Other than that, the math doesn't make sense. Lets say #5 just aint gonna happen...

Lets say #4 or #3 means we are rebuilding and having no chance to win this year - so they don't happen. If we see later that is the route they chose to go, we can just pack it in for the year before we get to camp.

Someone very good has to go...and they have to take baggage with them. I like both Carlos and Mags. I don't want to lose either. Getting rid of Mags, with PK and Koch means dealing with the Yankees. Only they would take that salary. A Soriano deal makes sense for us, but I don't see the Yanks doing it... If we can't do that, and we move Lee, I don't know where we can send him to that will give us both a good enough player to make it worth it and will take on the salary to make it worth it.

By my best estimate, the only thing we can do now is trade Maggs. I'd be sad. I want him to stay, but I don't see how that is possible given his pricetag and our salary structure.

PLEASE don't tell me to trade PK and Koch alone. That's just unrealistic in this environment.

[cornball]

In all that I have read lately, it seems the several teams are looking to either raise their salary or reduce their salary to the 80-85 million area.

I am speaking of Seattle, Texas, Giants, Atlanta, Arizona,Philly all the teams you would expect.

I would hope we try to increase the payroll, because in order for us to contend we will need to.

[john2499]

I think who the Sox hire as their next Mgr., will show us the level of competition they will be at.
If it is Gaston, you could probably assume they will have a higher payroll. The reports tell us he does not want to be apart of a losing team.
If it is Guillen, well then it probably won't be very high, thus less competitive.

[soxnut]

Originally posted by john2499
I think who the Sox hire as their next Mgr., will show us the level of competition they will be at.
If it is Gaston, you could probably assume they will have a higher payroll. The reports tell us he does not want to be apart of a losing team.
If it is Guillen, well then it probably won't be very high, thus less competitive.

Yeah I agree with you John. If they are hiring Gaston, and the rumor is that they are, WHY would they go into a rebuilding mode? So I'd have to think that they would add a little more to the payroll.

[hold2dibber]

Originally posted by jabrch
Now Colon is out of the picture

We now have the following either set or assumed

Cs - 1mm total (Olivo and ?)
1B/DH - PK and Frank 14mm
2B ?
3B - Crede .5mm
SS ?

RF - Mags 14mm
CF Reed .5
LF - Lee about 5mm

SP1-2 5mm total (Buehrle+Loaiza)
SP 3 Garland .5
SP 4-5 ????

Pen - assume about 12mm total

That's 52mm spent needing a 2B, a SS and 2 SPs.

It's even worse than you think. Loaiza's option is for $4 mm. Buehrle and Garland are both arbitration eligible (I'm pretty sure). I would guess Buehrle will get $3.5 mm and Garland will get $2 mm (maybe a little less). So that's $9.5 mm, not $5.5 mm, for the 3 starters. Plus, you didn't factor in the bench, which has got to be at least another $3 mm or so. I also think Carlos will be able to get more than $5 mm in arbitration - probably closer to $7 mm.

I think they'll take anything, anything, they can for Koch or Konerko, but the best I can see coming out of a trade for those guys is that we take on somebody else's bad contract (e.g., Jeff Weaver) that is a little less bad than the one(s) we're trading.

I think they'll try to re-sign Maggs long term and get him to defer money this year. If Maggs agrees, they'll trade Lee. If Maggs doesn't agree, they'll trade Maggs. If they can't move either Koch or Konerko, they might have to trade both of those guys.

I feel sick.

[jabrch]

Originally posted by hold2dibber
I think they'll try to re-sign Maggs long term and get him to defer money this year. If Maggs agrees, they'll trade Lee. If Maggs doesn't agree, they'll trade Maggs. If they can't move either Koch or Konerko, they might have to trade both of those guys.

I feel sick.

Any deal for Maggs or Lee must include 1 or both of GIDPK and Krotch. I hope the Yanks really are planning on trading Soriano AND Nick Johnson! That's about the only thing that can save us.

I hate to lose Mags, but Soriano, Johnson and Weaver for Mags, Konerko and possibly Koch. I think that's our best bet. Resign Flash, Ink Carlos to a longer term deal, get a SS and one of the 5 SPs available. Either bring back Crazy Carl or find another RF out there (Shannon Stewart?) Play Reed in CF, Thomas at 1B/DH and sign an aging veteran to DH.

I feel sick also...Losing Mags would suck - I just don't see any way around it now that Frank took his option.

[hold2dibber]

Originally posted by jabrch
Any deal for Maggs or Lee must include 1 or both of GIDPK and Krotch. I hope the Yanks really are planning on trading Soriano AND Nick Johnson! That's about the only thing that can save us.

If you include PK or Koch in a trade of Maggs or Lee, you're going to get much less in return. And while I've heard rumors that the Yankees are considering moving Soriano, I haven't heard that with respect to Johnson.

I hate to lose Mags, but Soriano, Johnson and Weaver for Mags, Konerko and possibly Koch. I think that's our best bet. Resign Flash, Ink Carlos to a longer term deal, get a SS and one of the 5 SPs available. Either bring back Crazy Carl or find another RF out there (Shannon Stewart?) Play Reed in CF, Thomas at 1B/DH and sign an aging veteran to DH.

Although I originally floated the Maggs/PK/Koch for Soriano/Johnson/Weaver idea, I think it is pretty unlikely. The only way it would work would be if Steinbrenner goes bonkers and wants some big name players, period. But Soriano and Johnson are two of their better players, and they're young and cheap. I think Maggs for Soriano straight up could possibly happen, but that's about the best you could hope for. I wouldn't want to be in KW's shoes.