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Lip Man 1
10-26-2003, 12:24 AM
With the Marlins' shocking the sports world, how does their victory potentially effect the Sox?

I can think of one immediate way and one potential way in the near future.

Immediately the price of poker has just gone up...way, way up. George Steinbrenner will not take this humiliation lying down. He will do anything needed to guarantee himself a title next season. That means Bartolo Colon is about to get a 15 million per year offer, Andy Pettitte a 15 million per year offer and Kevin Millwood a 12 million per year offer.

15 million a season is way out of the Sox league, so it's goodbye Bartolo and thanks for all you did.

In the near future Jerry Reinsdorf now at long last (in his mind) has his "smoking gun." Now he can finally go to Sox fans, the press and player agents and say with a straight face, "who needs to spend money to win a championship? Look at Florida!"

Of course Uncle Jerry will be overlooking the fact that what Florida did was unprecedented and not likely to happen again for some time. He'll also overlook the fact that the list of World Series participants who spent big money is as long as your arm, where the list of teams who spent less then 53 million to win has but a single solitary name on it. No matter to him... he's now got his precedent.

So I think you can forget about any increase in team payroll beyond at most 60 million and that is in my opinion, a long shot.

That's just what I think. The floor's open for discussion.

Lip

gosox41
10-26-2003, 12:29 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
With the Marlins' shocking the sports world, how does their victory potentially effect the Sox?

I can think of one immediate way and one potential way in the near future.

Immediately the price of poker has just gone up...way, way up. George Steinbrenner will not take this humiliation lying down. He will do anything needed to guarantee himself a title next season. That means Bartolo Colon is about to get a 15 million per year offer, Andy Pettitte a 15 million per year offer and Kevin Millwood a 12 million per year offer.

15 million a season is way out of the Sox league, so it's goodbye Bartolo and thanks for all you did.

In the near future Jerry Reinsdorf now at long last (in his mind) has his "smoking gun." Now he can finally go to Sox fans, the press and player agents and say with a straight face, "who needs to spend money to win a championship? Look at Florida!"

Of course Uncle Jerry will be overlooking the fact that what Florida did was unprecedented and not likely to happen again for some time. He'll also overlook the fact that the list of World Series participants who spent big money is as long as your arm, where the list of teams who spent less then 53 million to win has but a single solitary name on it. No matter to him... he's now got his precedent.

So I think you can forget about any increase in team payroll beyond at most 60 million and that is in my opinion, a long shot.

That's just what I think. The floor's open for discussion.

Lip

I've been waiting for you to post something. :D:

I was going to point out how Marlins proved a lot of your theories wrong. I mean not only did this team have a low payroll, but they won after having a massive rebulding effort.

I don't think it's going to effect JR one bit. If anything, I think the Cubs winning is going to hopefully fire JR up a little bit. Remember the Angels won last year while their payroll was higher then the Marlins, it was not even in the top 10 in the majors. And of course who knocked the high spending Yanks out of the playoffs in 2002 in the first round?

Bob

Lip Man 1
10-26-2003, 12:38 AM
Bob:

Just like the 95 win Sox team in 2000 it was a fluke. I'd be willing to wager after Loria guts the team and cuts payroll (as reported at ESPN.com) they don't even have a winning season next year.

The bottom line is still why can't the Sox get to a World Series?

Lip

gosox41
10-26-2003, 01:07 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Bob:

Just like the 95 win Sox team in 2000 it was a fluke. I'd be willing to wager after Loria guts the team and cuts payroll (as reported at ESPN.com) they don't even have a winning season next year.

The bottom line is still why can't the Sox get to a World Series?

Lip

I haven't heard anything about the Marlins gutting their team. I'm sure they will make some personnel changes as they probably can't afford to keep everyone if their attendence is so bad.

But bottom line is I'd take 2 World Series championships in 7 seasons.

Oakland gets ripped on for not advancing far enough in the playoffs even though they made it 4 years in a row and have averaged close to 99 wins playing in the toughest division in baseball. The Marlins get criticized for allegedly gutting their team after they won the whole thing with a low payroll.

Why don't the Sox make it to the series? Because they're not run smartly. It has nothing to do with money, it has a lot to do with having the right management team in place and finding the right talent. The Sox have failed in both these areas.

Bob

Dan H
10-26-2003, 07:41 AM
Originally posted by gosox41
I haven't heard anything about the Marlins gutting their team. I'm sure they will make some personnel changes as they probably can't afford to keep everyone if their attendence is so bad.

But bottom line is I'd take 2 World Series championships in 7 seasons.

Oakland gets ripped on for not advancing far enough in the playoffs even though they made it 4 years in a row and have averaged close to 99 wins playing in the toughest division in baseball. The Marlins get criticized for allegedly gutting their team after they won the whole thing with a low payroll.

Why don't the Sox make it to the series? Because they're not run smartly. It has nothing to do with money, it has a lot to do with having the right management team in place and finding the right talent. The Sox have failed in both these areas.

Bob

Bob- I will agree with you that throwing money at a problem is not the only way to solve it. However, before we think low payroll is the way to go because of the Marlins' success, we have to look at the whole picture before we say money means nothing.

For one thing, Florida had no winning seasons in between their championships. Of course I would take that if the Sox won two World Series. Yet, it shows that low payroll doesn't always equal success.

Secondly, Jerry Reinsdorf banked his reputation on his massive rebuilding effort. The 2000 division vindicated him somewhat, but the truth remains the Sox have not won a playoff game since the White Flag Trade. That is why I hated the trade. As a long time Sox fan, I have seen rebuilding efforts come and go. For the most part, they have produced very little. (Like a 3-10 playoff record.)

Finally, I have had it with excuses about little fan support and no money. The Marlins have won again. The Sox should be ashamed of themselves. So ashamed that they should show a true committment to winning something. Haven't we waited long enough?

JDP
10-26-2003, 07:56 AM
I'm not sure about the Marline "rebuilding", but what will they do will the status of their big-named free agents?

Luis Castillo
Ivan Rodriguez

FJA
10-26-2003, 08:42 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Bob:

Just like the 95 win Sox team in 2000 it was a fluke. I'd be willing to wager after Loria guts the team and cuts payroll (as reported at ESPN.com) they don't even have a winning season next year.

The bottom line is still why can't the Sox get to a World Series?

Lip

Lip:

Do you have an ESPN.com link for Loria gutting the team? I can't find it, but I'm willing to bet that if the ownership makes that fanbase go through another post-WS gutting, they won't take in enough gate money to buy the hot dog buns. It will be the first step in the Marlins going completely out of business, which is a shame, because there is a fanbase for baseball in Florida if they can just get an owner in there who gives a damn.

ScottyTheSoxFan
10-26-2003, 08:45 AM
im glad the yanks lost - but jeff loria totally does not deserve a championship.

dickallen15
10-26-2003, 08:52 AM
The Yankees were going to give Colon $15 million if the won or lost this series.When Williams said the Sox offered Colon the richest contract in White Sox history to a pitcher, it was a concession speech, he was saying goodbye to Bart. I think the only thing the Marlins victory proves is that you can win it all with a middle of the road payroll, but if you win, that payroll will rise so fast you won't be able to keep it together, unless you get people coming to the park on a regular basis. Marlin fans show up less than Sox fans. The AL Central is going to be very weak again next year. If you put together a team a little better than average you should be able to win 90-95 games, with the unbalanced schedule. Strengthen the pitching staff, get a couple of guys that will get their uniform dirty, win the division, and take your chances. If Reinsdorf spends money, and spends it wisely, the White Sox should be in good shape for several years.

oldcomiskey
10-26-2003, 08:54 AM
what makes you think King george does---He already has run off a legend in Zimmer and probbly Torre too. And what makes you think the Sox do either--sure when they are clicking they have one of the best---if the not THE best offense in baseball but have had no mananger to speak of since Torborg left..

Lip--lets wait til the offseason to post judgement on JR--although I have a sneaking feeling youre right

doublem23
10-26-2003, 10:02 AM
Wow... Only late October and we've already closed the door on next year.

:chickenlittle

batmanZoSo
10-26-2003, 10:06 AM
The Yankees are done I think. We won't have to worry about them "bogarting" championships until the next wave of Yankee greats come togther. Torre's gone, Zimmer's gone, Stottlemyre's gone, Pettitte's going to Houston, Clemens is done, and Wells won't stick around for what's coming. Even if he does, I don't see any more productive years from that slob anyway, so consider him a wash. Rivera's not getting younger, Karim Garcia is their right fielder, they have no third baseman (I don't see Boone in pinstripes next year). Their bullpen isn't great and will probably get worse. They have no speed, they have Soriano the strikeout king leading off most of the time..

Sure, they'll try to win it all, just like they have since 2000, but they'll be going about it by replacing half their roster with big free agents. It'll be a patchwork quilt of big egos that won't meld together under whatever manager is willing to work under a socialist regime. Nobody will be able to get the results Torre got under that pressure.

Lip Man 1
10-26-2003, 01:04 PM
Bob:

Jim Capel (I think) has a story on it this morning on ESPN.com. ESPN's Sportscenter last night was speculating that sources are saying Florida can not afford to re-sign Rodriguez or Castillo, that Lowell probably will be traded along with Conine.

FWIW

Lip

nasox
10-26-2003, 01:16 PM
Originally posted by gosox41

Why don't the Sox make it to the series? Because they're not run smartly. It has nothing to do with money, it has a lot to do with having the right management team in place and finding the right talent. The Sox have failed in both these areas.

Bob



I totally agree with you. The sox are such a power team. I have said it before, you cannot live and die with the three run bomb. We need to be more like a NL team. baserunning, bunting, ptiching (we did finally get that), timely hitting, defense (solved with alomar), these are traits that a white sox team needs to be a winner. Unfortunately, with JR, it doesn't seem like it will happen soon. :(:

JDP
10-26-2003, 02:21 PM
Originally posted by batmanZoSo
Rivera's not getting younger, Karim Garcia is their right fielder...

What about the $150+ million they will be throwing towards Guerrero to be their RF? Yeah, the Yankee's won't be hurting on offense, that's for sure. Now, with the two lefties leaving and Clemens retiring, the rotation might be suspect with what? Mussina, Contreas, Weaver, and .. ?

Georgie will throw hundreds of millions towards Vladimir Guerrero for sure and probably towards a FA SP or two (L. Hernandez? Astacio? B. Anderson? etc..) , so they'll be right back in the thick of things in '04.

TDog
10-26-2003, 02:37 PM
What I strongly disagree with is the idea that fielding a winning team is simply a matter of increasing payroll. The White Sox had the talent this year to have the sort of pre-collapse playoff runs the Cubs did. I would have liked their chances against the Yankees and against the Red Sox. The difference between finishing first and second in a weak division came down to five games against a team the Sox had been beating consistently. While Alex Rodriguez at short, Jason Giambi at first and Kevin Millwood making your fifth-starter debate moot would have increased payroll and enhanced the team's championship chances, losing those games had little to do with payroll. We could sign Gary Sheffield. Certainly a team with Sheffield would have to advance beyond the first round.

It isn't what you spend, but how you spend it. Most teams are talking about cutting payroll, not because they want to deprive their cities of a winner (betraying their obligations to go into debt as a civic obligation), but because increasing payroll often proves counterproductive.

Both Becket and Prior proved to be the backbone of their teams this postseason. (When the Marlin broke Prior's back, the Cubs were finished.) Both are too young to be pulling in the sort of money that Millwood saw for a strong also-ran this year. Because pitching is such a fragile commodity, there is a chance they will never see that sort of money.

Teams won't try to emulate this year's Marlins because "the kids can play" is a bad public relations strategy. But at the same time, many GMs understand that it takes more than a large payroll to win a division (or failing that, the World Series).

RichH55
10-26-2003, 02:58 PM
Originally posted by JDP
What about the $150+ million they will be throwing towards Guerrero to be their RF? Yeah, the Yankee's won't be hurting on offense, that's for sure. Now, with the two lefties leaving and Clemens retiring, the rotation might be suspect with what? Mussina, Contreas, Weaver, and .. ?

Georgie will throw hundreds of millions towards Vladimir Guerrero for sure and probably towards a FA SP or two (L. Hernandez? Astacio? B. Anderson? etc..) , so they'll be right back in the thick of things in '04.


I highly doubt Vlad goes to the Yankees

batmanZoSo
10-26-2003, 04:42 PM
JDP--

They might be in the thick of things but they won't be dominant. They haven't been for a few years. They've turned into the Braves--great in the long haul when the numbers have time to prove themselves, but in a playoff series, very beatable. I don't think they're gonna rebuild or go with a JR style youth movement, but I'm not worried about them hogging the World Series for a while.

TraderTim
10-26-2003, 05:53 PM
Lip:

I think the one thing that may be positive out of the Marlin win is this:

JR really thought the WS was there to be won by anyone this year that got into the playoffs and played hard/got hot. I really think that was his motivation in adding at mid-season. Most years there were dominant teams that you could point to that just weren't going to be beaten.

Hopefully, he will have the same opinion going into 2004 and choose to go at it with the same intent.

Will we retain Colon? If they put a $40 mill offer for three years on the table, that's a great offer and about all I can ask of JR regarding Colon.

The rest of the team? Hard to say until we hear from Colon and then name a manager...

And of course, does KW now suddenly decide he needs to spend more time with his family, in NC?

At least some of the questions will start to be answered, now that the Marlins did their thing.

Forkit!

LoveTheSox
10-26-2003, 09:17 PM
I have a few questions regarding the choices we seem to be stuck with. For one, where has Gaston been since he lead the Blue Jays to a championship? I can't recall hearing his name managing anyone else, maybe I just missed it. If he was so good at turning a team around, and producing a winner, then why hasn't anyone else picked him up? I'm skeptical.

I guess, since I grew up watching Ozzie play, I have a natural bias towards him. I like his energy and enthusiam, and I think that's what this team needs. If Gaston has a laid-back JM approach, then isn't hiring him just bringing in more of the same problems we've all been complaining about?

SoxxoS
10-26-2003, 09:25 PM
Originally posted by LoveTheSox
I have a few questions regarding the choices we seem to be stuck with. For one, where has Gaston been since he lead the Blue Jays to a championship? I can't recall hearing his name managing anyone else, maybe I just missed it. If he was so good at turning a team around, and producing a winner, then why hasn't anyone else picked him up? I'm skeptical.

I guess, since I grew up watching Ozzie play, I have a natural bias towards him. I like his energy and enthusiam, and I think that's what this team needs. If Gaston has a laid-back JM approach, then isn't hiring him just bringing in more of the same problems we've all been complaining about?

Gaston was also a hitting coach for Toronto for a few years.

Just because Gaston is "laid back" doesn't mean he is going to make the same bonehead decisions as Manuel did. Big difference. The problems we have been complaining about is Manuels constant changing of the lineup, his preferential treatment toward certain players, and his handling of pitchers. Gaston won't bring any of those things (I hope) to the table.

RichH55
10-26-2003, 09:30 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Gaston was also a hitting coach for Toronto for a few years.

Just because Gaston is "laid back" doesn't mean he is going to make the same bonehead decisions as Manuel did. Big difference. The problems we have been complaining about is Manuels constant changing of the lineup, his preferential treatment toward certain players, and his handling of pitchers. Gaston won't bring any of those things (I hope) to the table.

If you are going to change managers, you might as well get a different style

And I dont think any manager makes moves that fans won't second guess

jeremyb1
10-26-2003, 09:55 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Immediately the price of poker has just gone up...way, way up. George Steinbrenner will not take this humiliation lying down. He will do anything needed to guarantee himself a title next season. That means Bartolo Colon is about to get a 15 million per year offer, Andy Pettitte a 15 million per year offer and Kevin Millwood a 12 million per year offer.

15 million a season is way out of the Sox league, so it's goodbye Bartolo and thanks for all you did.

That's unfortunate if that's the case but we have to be realistic here. Colon isn't worth an unlimited amount of money. He's not worth whatever the Yanks are willing to offer him. Also, the Yankees payroll can be much higher than anyone else in baseball but certainly its not limitless. I hate the notion that Steinbrenner is a great owner because he's willing to pay whatever it takes to win. His team's revenue is much larger than any team in baseball so his team's payroll is much larger, it doesn't speak towards a desire to win it speaks towards how much money you have to spend. The Yanks payroll was around 180 this season subtract about 5 for Wells and 10 for Clemens and add in offers of 15, 12, and an increase of over 5 million to Pettitte plus 15 to Vlad and you're still looking at a payroll over 200 million dollars. That's a lot of money no matter what team you are.

batmanZoSo
10-26-2003, 10:01 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
The Yanks payroll was around 180 this season subtract about 5 for Wells and 10 for Clemens and add in offers of 15, 12, and an increase of over 5 million to Pettitte plus 15 to Vlad and you're still looking at a payroll over 200 million dollars. That's a lot of money no matter what team you are.

...and they'd still be beatable.

ma-gaga
10-26-2003, 11:43 PM
1.) I'd be shocked if Loria "gutted" the team. The only team that has done that in the last 10 years was Florida in 1998. Even they aren't stupid enough to go through this twice. The playoff payoff plus the attendance reward should payoff next year. I think they'll lose 1-2 free agents (Lowell and Castillo), but they'll keep the majority of that team intact, including Ivan Rodriguez.

2.) In 2004, some team will compete with a payroll of less than $50MM. It's happened in each of the last 3 years. It will happen again.

3.) I can't wait to see what the Yankees do. As much as I despise Loria/Selig/Pohlad/Reinsy, Steinbrenner is a greed ... er uh.. breed apart. That team could possibly bust $200MM next year. It wouldn't surprise me if he did that. "Screw this crap, I'm getting a legitimate all-star at EVERY position." Thank god, Aaron Boone couldn't hit once he put on the pinstripes.

Lip Man 1
10-27-2003, 02:03 AM
Jeremy:

When your gross income is estimated at 600 million per year (according to Forbes) what's a 200 million dollar payroll?

and it's not just that George spends a lot of money...he has realized that you have to have good coaches and scouts and pays them well, he built a brand new spring training complex a few years ago, Legends Field and he pours every single dime of his profits back into the franchise because he knows that the only way he makes a profit in the first place is if the team wins big.

Care to see the videos I have of a nearly empty Yankee Stadium in the early 90's when the Sox played there?

Lip

jeremyb1
10-27-2003, 03:29 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Jeremy:

When your gross income is estimated at 600 million per year (according to Forbes) what's a 200 million dollar payroll?

and it's not just that George spends a lot of money...he has realized that you have to have good coaches and scouts and pays them well, he built a brand new spring training complex a few years ago, Legends Field and he pours every single dime of his profits back into the franchise because he knows that the only way he makes a profit in the first place is if the team wins big.

Care to see the videos I have of a nearly empty Yankee Stadium in the early 90's when the Sox played there?

Lip

My point is that he's not pouring all that much money back into the organization if the team's revenue is 600 million dollars. A 200 million dollar payroll would be one third of the club's revenue. I don't think 5 consecutive world series could bring the sox an annual revenue of 600 million or even half that for that matter. There's no risk or sacrifice involved in reinvesting a third of your profits back into the organization when you know you'll still make 400 million dollars next season!! If we raised our payroll to 100 million dollars we might win big and increase our revenue but we might fall flat on our face or face bad luck and lose in the first round of the playoffs and lose an incredible amount of money. I'd love to see ownership give it a shot but its not my money they're risking.

dooda
10-27-2003, 11:44 AM
Originally posted by TDog
What I strongly disagree with is the idea that fielding a winning team is simply a matter of increasing payroll. The White Sox had the talent this year to have the sort of pre-collapse playoff runs the Cubs did. I would have liked their chances against the Yankees and against the Red Sox. The difference between finishing first and second in a weak division came down to five games against a team the Sox had been beating consistently. While Alex Rodriguez at short, Jason Giambi at first and Kevin Millwood making your fifth-starter debate moot would have increased payroll and enhanced the team's championship chances, losing those games had little to do with payroll. We could sign Gary Sheffield. Certainly a team with Sheffield would have to advance beyond the first round.



This is a point I have made several times. Winning is more than spending money. To be sure, talent has to be there, and talent costs money. The winning expectation has to be there too, and that starts with JR. The Yankees have an expectation that they will win the World Series championship every year..

We need an attitude transplant. An expectation of winning. JR and KW have actually started the ball rolling. They said getting close is not acceptible. Now they have to back it up with a proven winner as manager. Then they have to give the new guy the pieces he needs to do the job. It may not be as expensive as most people think.

I hope we get someone who recognizes that defense enhances pitching. Get me a centerfielder who can cover ground, a second baseman who can field his position, a shortstop who can make the routine plays, and a catcher that can throw and call a game and I think you'll be competitive. I think you can get those pieces comparatively inexpensively and some of them are here already.

MisterB
10-27-2003, 12:44 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
When your gross income is estimated at 600 million per year (according to Forbes) what's a 200 million dollar payroll?

Are you referring to this article (http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2002/0415/092tab2.html)? Says the Yank's revenues are about $200M. Or is there a newer version of it?

Lip Man 1
10-27-2003, 09:13 PM
Mister:

The updated version also makes educated guesses at the revenue generated by the YES Network as well as other broadcasting, merchandising and concession rights and fees. You know all those areas where baseball teams hide money then claim for the fans that they are poor.

Lip