PDA

View Full Version : Props to Daver and Randar...


whitesoxwilkes
10-10-2003, 07:00 PM
...for the great piece on Sox prospects (http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/rwas/index.php?category=3&id=2354) . I'm a huge Sox fan, but not a huge stathead and don't really get the chance to follow action in the minors or the draft. Nicely done! :)

gosox41
10-10-2003, 11:05 PM
Originally posted by whitesoxwilkes
...for the great piece on Sox prospects (http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/rwas/index.php?category=3&id=2354) . I'm a huge Sox fan, but not a huge stathead and don't really get the chance to follow action in the minors or the draft. Nicely done! :)

It was great insight into the Sox top prospects. I just have one question for them. I think I've mentioned it before, but isn't it a little worrisome that KW has now run 4 drafts (2000-2003), and now seems to be the time when the top prospects from 2000 and 2001 would start to rise up, yet 3 of the top 10 prospects are from the 2003 draft?

I can see the potential in the 2003 class, but I would think that there'd be more from the earlier drafts. What this is telling me is the Sox upper level farm system is pretty bare. After 4 drafts (and getting most of Schu's mistakes out of the system) is there any concern that KW is not doing as good of a job as many think when it comes to drafting? Shouldn't there be more to show form the 2000-2002 drafts other then Borchard and Honel? Is KW just drafting players that fizzle out as the competition gets tougher or are the Sox doing a bad job of developing them?

Just wanted your opionions. Thanks.

Bob

Daver
10-10-2003, 11:22 PM
Originally posted by gosox41
It was great insight into the Sox top prospects. I just have one question for them. I think I've mentioned it before, but isn't it a little worrisome that KW has now run 4 drafts (2000-2003), and now seems to be the time when the top prospects from 2000 and 2001 would start to rise up, yet 3 of the top 10 prospects are from the 2003 draft?

I can see the potential in the 2003 class, but I would think that there'd be more from the earlier drafts. What this is telling me is the Sox upper level farm system is pretty bare. After 4 drafts (and getting most of Schu's mistakes out of the system) is there any concern that KW is not doing as good of a job as many think when it comes to drafting? Shouldn't there be more to show form the 2000-2002 drafts other then Borchard and Honel? Is KW just drafting players that fizzle out as the competition gets tougher or are the Sox doing a bad job of developing them?

Just wanted your opionions. Thanks.

Bob

The Sox drafted well in 03,that is why you see three of them in the top ten,they were all drafted in positions that are a need in the organization,and all of them are projected to move quickly up the ranks.

Undoing the mistakes of the Schueler regime is going to take a long time,he had nine years to screw it up,you want it fixed in four?

There are prospects that Kenny picked that did not make our list because we based it on guys that will be most likely to appear in the majors before the rest,not on overall potential,if we were to base it on overall potential we would have had to make it a fifty man list.

gosox41
10-10-2003, 11:33 PM
Originally posted by Daver
The Sox drafted well in 03,that is why you see three of them in the top ten,they were all drafted in positions that are a need in the organization,and all of them are projected to move quickly up the ranks.

Undoing the mistakes of the Schueler regime is going to take a long time,he had nine years to screw it up,you want it fixed in four?


I'm not trying to be a pain, but just can't get a feel for Williams. I still don't understand the drafting of Royce Ring, for example. He may be a good reliever, but not worth a first round pick especially if you conisder the Sox seriously wanted Blanton, he was available, and the Sox didn't take him.

So, what was KW drafting for the first 3 years on the job? Wasn't he trying to fill holes in the organization then? Were the 2000-2002 drafts that much weaker then 2003?

Also, logically I would think correcting the mistakes of the Schueler regime would take about 4-6 years at least in terms of the players drafted. After that time frame most players either realize they're not going to make the majors and: quit, sign on to another organization as minor league free agents, are released, or accept their role as career minor leaguers and go wherever they're needed.

Over the last 3 years, KW has had control of minor league personnel. He can get rid of a lot of these mistakes and if he is carrying noticeable deadweight then he can do something about it.


I'm just curious. I don't study the minors as much and want to follow them more.

Bob

Daver
10-10-2003, 11:51 PM
Originally posted by gosox41
I'm not trying to be a pain, but just can't get a feel for Williams. I still don't understand the drafting of Royce Ring, for example. He may be a good reliever, but not worth a first round pick especially if you conisder the Sox seriously wanted Blanton, he was available, and the Sox didn't take him.



I'm just curious. I don't study the minors as much and want to follow them more.

Bob

Royce Ring was drafted to be traded,and I will admit I still hate wasting a first round pick on him.

I am not convinced Blanton was worth a first round choice either,but that may just be me.

I also tend to look at the guys that fly under the radar,Ryan Wing was drafted as a project and tore things up at Winston Salem this year,Mike Morse is a terrible SS,but his bat woke up and may cause the Sox to move him to first base and make use of his 6' 6" frame.Thomas Bryce is a terrific athlete,and could probably play any outfield position(yes he has the arm)but he hits better when the pitches are skipped to him at the plate.

I could go on,but Kenny is doing a good job.

MRKARNO
10-11-2003, 12:17 AM
Originally posted by Daver
Thomas Bryce is a terrific athlete,and could probably play any outfield position(yes he has the arm)but he hits better when the pitches are skipped to him at the plate.


Yeah, like we need another outfield prospect right now

I hope they all come to fruition and we can trade for a legit SS and 2b

gosox41
10-11-2003, 07:52 AM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Yeah, like we need another outfield prospect right now

I hope they all come to fruition and we can trade for a legit SS and 2b

I wish KW could figure out how to draft a legit. SS and CF. Jose is getting older and I wouldn't pay him more then $1.5-2 mill per year.

It owuld be nice if in 4 drafts KW could have found a young SS. I'm not even asking for an A-Rod or Garciaparra. I'd be happy if the Sox found a statistically average fielding SS with a statistically average OPS when comapred to other SS. Same thing with CF. Then the Sox would be able to save money at these positions and apply it to fill pitching needs. All I'm asking for is statistically average, not even good or great. I know it's hard to come by, but does anyone know the last SS the Sox drafted, developed, and that played for the Sox? I don't.

Bob

Daver
10-11-2003, 09:06 AM
Originally posted by gosox41
I wish KW could figure out how to draft a legit. SS and CF. Jose is getting older and I wouldn't pay him more then $1.5-2 mill per year.

It owuld be nice if in 4 drafts KW could have found a young SS. I'm not even asking for an A-Rod or Garciaparra. I'd be happy if the Sox found a statistically average fielding SS with a statistically average OPS when comapred to other SS. Same thing with CF. Then the Sox would be able to save money at these positions and apply it to fill pitching needs. All I'm asking for is statistically average, not even good or great. I know it's hard to come by, but does anyone know the last SS the Sox drafted, developed, and that played for the Sox? I don't.

Bob

They drafted one this year,he made our top ten list.Robert Valido,ranked one of the best SS prospects available in last years draft,he also had a good season in rookie ball.

soxtalker
10-11-2003, 11:06 AM
Originally posted by Daver
They drafted one this year,he made our top ten list.Robert Valido,ranked one of the best SS prospects available in last years draft,he also had a good season in rookie ball.

I read your comments about him in the prospects article. How long before you think he could be up here with the Sox?

MRKARNO
10-11-2003, 12:33 PM
How likely is it that Rauch will finally be healthy enough to crack the major league rotation? If KW's looking for pitching this offseason, he should try to get Colon back, or at least another big name pitcher to replace him, along with a smaller name pitcher. That would mean our rotation would be

Loaiza
Big namer
Buerhle
smaller name
Garland

No room for Rauch in this scenario.

Also, how much would Cotts' and Rauch's development be hurt if KW got rid of a lot of hitting in favor of pitching?

soxtalker
10-11-2003, 12:53 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
How likely is it that Rauch will finally be healthy enough to crack the major league rotation? If KW's looking for pitching this offseason, he should try to get Colon back, or at least another big name pitcher to replace him, along with a smaller name pitcher. That would mean our rotation would be

Loaiza
Big namer
Buerhle
smaller name
Garland

No room for Rauch in this scenario.

Also, how much would Cotts' and Rauch's development be hurt if KW got rid of a lot of hitting in favor of pitching?

If Rauch returns to the dominant form that resulted in BA ranking him as the top prospect a year or two ago, they'll be able to squeeze out a spot for him. It is highly unlikely that everyone on the pitching staff will turn out to have banner years. Look at the Yankees, who had assembled an awesome array of starting pitchers by the start of the season.

Also, don't forget that some of KW's focus on pitching will have to be aimed at the relief core. Although I'm sure that he hopes that Koch returns to form, KW can't rely on that. Gordon may very well be gone, too.

RichH55
10-11-2003, 02:32 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Yeah, like we need another outfield prospect right now

I hope they all come to fruition and we can trade for a legit SS and 2b


Mags is in the last year of his deal, We have no CF, Lee is Aribitration elegible and not signed long term...Konerko needs to be gone(An OF type could DH)

Seems like its not a bad time to have some prospects for the OF....better than the recent past where our big OF prospects were Aaron Rowand, Mario Valenzuela, and hoping Jeff Liefer doesnt embrass himself

Daver
10-11-2003, 09:03 PM
Originally posted by soxtalker
I read your comments about him in the prospects article. How long before you think he could be up here with the Sox?

Randar did the scouting report on Valido.

Optimistically you would be looking at 2005,if he has a terriffic year in low class A he could be on the Sox by the break in 2005,realistically I would project him to compete for a spot on the 2006 roster.

He is projected to move through the system rather quickly,he has all the talent to accomplish this.

Tragg
10-11-2003, 10:22 PM
Excellent piece Daver and Randar - full of details and info. Much appreciated

Chisoxfn
10-11-2003, 10:41 PM
Just read through it and I liked it a whole lot. You guys did an awesome job on it.

One question though, Did you guys consider Ryan Wing at all? He dominated High A ball at the same clip as Honel, if not better. He may not have as much hype, but you can't deny the numbers :D:

And no I'm not saying Wing should be ahead of Honel

Daver
10-11-2003, 11:03 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
Just read through it and I liked it a whole lot. You guys did an awesome job on it.

One question though, Did you guys consider Ryan Wing at all? He dominated High A ball at the same clip as Honel, if not better. He may not have as much hype, but you can't deny the numbers :D:

And no I'm not saying Wing should be ahead of Honel

We argued back and forth about Wing and Pacheco in the ten spot actually,and Pacheco got the nod for the numbers he put up in Birmingham.We also discussed the possibility of having Ryan Meaux included in that list.If we had the free time to do a top twenty we would have done that,but we both have obligations that make that diffucult.

:)

MarkEdward
10-12-2003, 10:57 AM
Am I the only one that doesn't see much in Ryan Wing? Yes, his ERA was lower (but only .13 lower) than Honel's, but Honel had the better K rate, walk rate, and home run rate. Although Wing's K rate is low, I'm more concerned about his walk rate: 4.2 BB/9 IP. To succeed in the upper levels, he must get that down.

Daver
10-12-2003, 01:12 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Am I the only one that doesn't see much in Ryan Wing? Yes, his ERA was lower (but only .13 lower) than Honel's, but Honel had the better K rate, walk rate, and home run rate. Although Wing's K rate is low, I'm more concerned about his walk rate: 4.2 BB/9 IP. To succeed in the upper levels, he must get that down.

Wing was a Juco pitcher that was drafted as a project,and has shown marked improvement in his mechanics from spending an extra year in A ball.Time will tell if he can capitalize on his improvement.

Chisoxfn
10-12-2003, 01:53 PM
I've seen Wing pitch twice. Both times he has shown very good knowledge for pitching. I think him and Neal Cotts are incredibly similar pitchers with one exception. Cotts 3rd pitch is the curveball, while Wing's best pitch is a slider thats nasty.

The 2nd time I saw him pitch he had one jam, but he had I think 7 k's in like 6 innings. He was getting ahead of hitters and his slider is NASTY. He also has a solid fastball and throws a cutter as well. Velocity wise he's between 87-91, mainly in the high 80's.

He definately has somethings to learn but very rarely did I see him get hit hard.

Honel's knuckle curve is better then Wings slider, but not by MUCH. That knuckle curve is whicked, but I'm telling ya Wings slider is awesome too.

As far as Honel's velocity when I saw him pitch this year he was in the low 90's. I don't buy into this crap that he's back to throwing 94-95. I've seen BA hype too many guys and make too many lies in regards to velocity. I'm still waiting to see Foppert hit 99 MPH. Everytime I watch him he's constantly 88-91.

I should add that I am from the school of thought that velocity doesn't matter as long as you have movement and can keep hitters at bay. I'll take a pitcher then can pitch then a guy that tries to rely on one pitch. There are plenty of guys that can throw 95-96 that will never ever see the majors because its all they got.

Give me a guy that can use his fastball to get ahead, and changes locatoins with it and also mixes in a change and a curve/slider that he can control and I'll show you a guy who will be sucessful. Wing is one of those guys, but he does have some strides to make.

Hey Dave/Randar what did you guys think about Heath Phillips? Last season he was really hyped to be a very similar pitcher to Buehrle. He always has had a crummy W/L but he always pitched real good. Then this year he was all out of shape and started late and you just don't hear much about him anymore.

Still once again this year he had a very good ERA albeit it was in High A ball. He gives up a little more then a hit per inning, which is definately a concern but only gave up 7 walks in 75 innings and did strike out 51. Do you guys think much of him?

MarkEdward
10-12-2003, 04:15 PM
Originally posted by Daver
Wing was a Juco pitcher that was drafted as a project,and has shown marked improvement in his mechanics from spending an extra year in A ball.Time will tell if he can capitalize on his improvement.

That's all we can hope for, I suppose. I wouldn't put him in the same class as Honel (prospect wise), however.

Daver
10-12-2003, 04:19 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn


Hey Dave/Randar what did you guys think about Heath Phillips?

I think he needs to prove he can stay healthy,as well as develop some consistency,before he warrants a closer look.

Daver
10-12-2003, 04:21 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
That's all we can hope for, I suppose. I wouldn't put him in the same class as Honel (prospect wise), however.

We didn't put him in the same class as Honel.

At this point I consider Honel more a not if but when guy to make the big leagues,Wing is still questionable as to whether he makes it or not.

Randar68
10-13-2003, 10:16 AM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
I've seen Wing pitch twice. Both times he has shown very good knowledge for pitching. I think him and Neal Cotts are incredibly similar pitchers with one exception. Cotts 3rd pitch is the curveball, while Wing's best pitch is a slider thats nasty.




I agree with most of what you said. However, Wing's still a project. He never pitched until he was in JuCo, being an OF'er prior to that. Consistent mechanics, working on that change-up are his two biggest needed improvements. His slider will make guys look silly at times.



Another guy to keep a close eye on is Brandon McCarthy. He's a big RHP that was a 2002 draft pick out of Lamar CC in Colorado. He's a strikeout machine with some good stuff. He pitched in Great Falls this year, check it out.

Also, the amazing thing about this list is that Ricardo Nanita, based purely on ceiling potential, would be a borderline top ten as well. That would make 4 from this draft alone.


For those asking about SS, Robert Valido is the real deal. He's the best defensive SS at any level of this organization RIGHT NOW. Smooth as silk. I hope he continues to hit, because it is a certain need in the future. He has some holes and some other obvious things that will need to be corrected in the long-term...


FYI, so you can direct your comments/criticisms,

I did the reports on:
Reed, Cotts, Rauch, Anderson, Sweeney, Valido, and Munoz

Daver did:
Borchard, Honel, and Pacheco

Although, a lot of the opinions/observations/info on all of them came from our discussions.



One of the biggest disappointments from this season's personnel/scouting developments was the essential firing of Doug Laumann. He ran this draft masterfully, and the Sox will have several long-term contributors and perhaps multiple "stars" from this one draft, which is almost unheard-of.

Pacheco was placed tenth over a couple others because he is closer to the majors. I certainly believe there are several higher-ceiling prospects at the lower levels that did not make it because they are still very raw and years from the majors. Age-old ranking question: "Ceiling vs. likelihood to contribute/readiness"

poorme
10-13-2003, 10:19 AM
Originally posted by Randar68

One of the biggest disappointments from this season's personnel/scouting developments was the essential firing of Doug Laumann. He ran this draft masterfully, and the Sox will have several long-term contributors and perhaps multiple "stars" from this one draft, which is almost unheard-of.


Why did they fire him? Personality clash or something?

Randar68
10-13-2003, 10:47 AM
Originally posted by poorme
Why did they fire him? Personality clash or something?

Doug Laumann wanted to discipline a regional scout (IIRC) and was told by the management team that he would not be disciplined. Laumann insisted and would not let the issue drop, so the Sox "re-assigned" him.

Stupid, IMO, but at that point, Laumann was really stepping over his bounds, from what I've heard...

joecrede
10-13-2003, 04:22 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
One of the biggest disappointments from this season's personnel/scouting developments was the essential firing of Doug Laumann. He ran this draft masterfully, and the Sox will have several long-term contributors and perhaps multiple "stars" from this one draft, which is almost unheard-of.

Too bad about Laumann because as you said this draft was run masterfully.

Do you think last year's draft signaled a change in their strategy? I hope so.

Seemed to me that they targeted players who they could sign easily in the first round (Anderson) and that enables them to take a player who inevitably will slide because of signability issues in the second (Sweeney). Then take someone who they can easily sign in the third (King) using the savings on the first and third choices to sign the second choice.

Randar68
10-13-2003, 05:00 PM
Originally posted by joecrede
Too bad about Laumann because as you said this draft was run masterfully.

Do you think last year's draft signaled a change in their strategy? I hope so.

Seemed to me that they targeted players who they could sign easily in the first round (Anderson) and that enables them to take a player who inevitably will slide because of signability issues in the second (Sweeney). Then take someone who they can easily sign in the third (King) using the savings on the first and third choices to sign the second choice.

I liked it, but I wish they could have found the money/inclination to sign Greg Moviel, Donald Veal and Wes Hodges. Barring injuries, we'll hear from these guys again.

Daver
10-13-2003, 07:05 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
I liked it, but I wish they could have found the money/inclination to sign Greg Moviel, Donald Veal and Wes Hodges. Barring injuries, we'll hear from these guys again.

In Moviel's case we may here from him as a team physician,he seemed pretty serious about going to med school.

Chisoxfn
10-13-2003, 11:55 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
I liked it, but I wish they could have found the money/inclination to sign Greg Moviel, Donald Veal and Wes Hodges. Barring injuries, we'll hear from these guys again.


I'm still holding out that one or two of these guys might sign in time.

Also I agree with you 100% on McCarthy. He did exceptional considering he was pitching in a hitters league as well as a hitters park most of the time.

Its too bad Haigwood and Rodriguez went down with injuries cause I think those two have very high ceilings as well and both are lefties.

I definately agree with you on Nanita too. The only thing I wonder with him is that he is a college player so I'd like to see what kind of adjustments he makes as he moves up a level or two. He was mature enough to handle the lower leagues, once he shows he can do it in A Ball then I think he jumps up on the lists.

Too bad he went down with an injury but either way he flat dominated.

Fabio Castro is one of my favorite "sleeper" candidates.

Randar68
10-14-2003, 11:06 AM
Originally posted by Daver
In Moviel's case we may here from him as a team physician,he seemed pretty serious about going to med school.

You're thinking of Donald Veal, IIRC. He was an Arizona committment and he was asking for a 1+ million signing bonus and his mother/family was quoted about his desires to become a doctor and get his degree up-front. He's very talented (and left-handed) and would have been drafted in the 5th round or earlier if not for those bonus demands.

Moviel was a Vandy commit and Hodges is a Ga Tech commit, (IIRC might be the other way around, can't remember off the top of my head)

Randar68
10-14-2003, 11:07 AM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
I definately agree with you on Nanita too. The only thing I wonder with him is that he is a college player so I'd like to see what kind of adjustments he makes as he moves up a level or two. He was mature enough to handle the lower leagues, once he shows he can do it in A Ball then I think he jumps up on the lists.

Nanita needs to learn how to play defense. Right now, he's a hack in the field.