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hold2dibber
10-10-2003, 01:19 PM
If the Sox do not resign Colon (and I have a sinking feeling that they won't), they'll need to pick up two starting pitchers (I hope). In addtion to the higher cost alternatives for the top of the rotation that someone else (JDP, I think) posted recently, here are some ideas for the back end of the rotation with their '03 stats:

W. Alvarez: 95 IP, 80 Hs, 82 Ks, 2.37 ERA, .231 BAA, 1.08 WHIP

B. Anderson: 197 IP, 212 Hs, 87 Ks, 3.78 ERA, .279 BAA, 1.29 WHIP

K. Escobar: 180 IP, 189 Hs, 159 Ks, 4.29 ERA, .270 BAA, 1.48 WHIP

P. Hentgen: 160 IP, 150 Hs, 100 Ks, 4.09 ERA, .247 BAA, 1.29 WHIP

C. Lidle: 192 IP, 216 Hs, 112 Ks, 5.75 ERA, .282 BAA, 1.43 WHIP

R. Reed: 135 IP, 155 Hs, 71 Ks, 5.07 ERA, .285 BAA, 1.36 WHIP

S. Sparks: 107 IP, 1114 Hs, 54 Ks, 4.88 ERA, .277 BAA, 1.41 WHIP

J. Suppan: 204 IP, 217 Hs, 110 Ks, 4.19 ERA, .272 BAA, 1.31 WHIP

J. Wright: 25 IP, 23 Hs, 19 Ks, 4.26 ERA, .245 BAA, 1.34 WHIP

These are all free agents. The guys that interest me the most are Anderson, Hentgen and Alvarez. Anderson seems healthy and I was very impressed watching him pitch for the Indians and Royals this year. Getting him would probably require at least a 2 year deal. Hentgen's numbers were pretty impressive and he can start or relieve (though I'm guessing he'll be looking for a promise that he'll start). He's a guy who I can envision having a big come back year. Lidle was horrible last year, but has been okay in the past, and his horrible year might mean he'd come in for super cheap (i.e., minor league deal like Loaiza last year). Suppan is okay, but you can't expect him to be any better than a good 5th starter - he's very unlikely (IMHO) to have any kind of breakout at this point.

JRIG
10-10-2003, 01:26 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
If the Sox do not resign Colon (and I have a sinking feeling that they won't), they'll need to pick up two starting pitchers (I hope). In addtion to the higher cost alternatives for the top of the rotation that someone else (JDP, I think) posted recently, here are some ideas for the back end of the rotation with their '03 stats:

W. Alvarez: 95 IP, 80 Hs, 82 Ks, 2.37 ERA, .231 BAA, 1.08 WHIP

B. Anderson: 197 IP, 212 Hs, 87 Ks, 3.78 ERA, .279 BAA, 1.29 WHIP

K. Escobar: 180 IP, 189 Hs, 159 Ks, 4.29 ERA, .270 BAA, 1.48 WHIP

P. Hentgen: 160 IP, 150 Hs, 100 Ks, 4.09 ERA, .247 BAA, 1.29 WHIP

C. Lidle: 192 IP, 216 Hs, 112 Ks, 5.75 ERA, .282 BAA, 1.43 WHIP

R. Reed: 135 IP, 155 Hs, 71 Ks, 5.07 ERA, .285 BAA, 1.36 WHIP

S. Sparks: 107 IP, 1114 Hs, 54 Ks, 4.88 ERA, .277 BAA, 1.41 WHIP

J. Suppan: 204 IP, 217 Hs, 110 Ks, 4.19 ERA, .272 BAA, 1.31 WHIP

J. Wright: 25 IP, 23 Hs, 19 Ks, 4.26 ERA, .245 BAA, 1.34 WHIP

These are all free agents. The guys that interest me the most are Anderson, Hentgen and Alvarez. Anderson seems healthy and I was very impressed watching him pitch for the Indians and Royals this year. Getting him would probably require at least a 2 year deal. Hentgen's numbers were pretty impressive and he can start or relieve (though I'm guessing he'll be looking for a promise that he'll start). He's a guy who I can envision having a big come back year. Lidle was horrible last year, but has been okay in the past, and his horrible year might mean he'd come in for super cheap (i.e., minor league deal like Loaiza last year). Suppan is okay, but you can't expect him to be any better than a good 5th starter - he's very unlikely (IMHO) to have any kind of breakout at this point.

Escobar is expecting big $$. He's way out of our price range. I have a feeling someone will look at Lidle's win total and give him at least a major league deal. Don't think he'll be a Loaiza-type guy.

I think Hentgen is a very intersting option depending on what he's asking for. He looked fully recovered when he came back this year. I've always liked Brian Anderson too, but that low K total worries me a bit.

kraut83
10-10-2003, 01:32 PM
I'm not sure if either is a free agent, but 2 possible canidates for "Esteban 04" could be either Jason Johnson or Omar Daal from B-More.

doublem23
10-10-2003, 01:34 PM
Originally posted by kraut83
I'm not sure if either is a free agent, but 2 possible canidates for "Esteban 04" could be either Jason Johnson or Omar Daal from B-More.

Isn't Omar Daal supposed to have a breakout year every year, though?

Of that list, I like Brian Anderson and Wilson Alvarez the best... Any word on how well Schoenweis is as a starter again? Wasn't he pretty good in Anaheim for a while?

I'm also pretty happy with the way Jon Rauch finished out the year in AAA. Hopefully someone can step up.

JRIG
10-10-2003, 01:36 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
Isn't Omar Daal supposed to have a breakout year every year, though?

Of that list, I like Brian Anderson and Wilson Alvarez the best... Any word on how well Schoenweis is as a starter again? Wasn't he pretty good in Anaheim for a while?

Schoeneweis' career ERA as a starter is over 5.00. If we are relying on him to fill the rotation we are in trouble. If we must keep him on the roster, he's been much, much better out of the bullpen. But he still wants to start. A man's got to know his limitations.

doublem23
10-10-2003, 01:39 PM
Originally posted by JRIG
Schoeneweis' career ERA as a starter is over 5.00. If we are relying on him to fill the rotation we are in trouble. If we must keep him on the roster, he's been much, much better out of the bullpen. But he still wants to start. A man's got to know his limitations.

All right... I just remember a few years ago when he was an Angel Fox Sports did a whole production on him and how he was a fighter (some disease or something?)... Eh, he was a good fit in the bullpen.

SpringfldFan
10-10-2003, 02:06 PM
I don't like the context of this argument in the first place. I don't want to be talking about what we can "afford", what we can get "for cheap" or what steals there are. I don't, I don't, I DON'T!!

Until that entire mentality changes in the front office, this team won't ever take the next step.

dickallen15
10-10-2003, 02:22 PM
I'd stay away from Willie. He was pitching in a huge pitcher's park, is a bigger tub of goo than Colon, and is ripe to start getting lit up. I think anyone will regret signing him this off season. Remember when Jim Abbott came back and went 5-0 with the White Sox in the late 90's. He signed for good money with the Brewers, and was forced to quit by the end of July the next year, because he couldn't get anybody out. I feel the same will happen to Alvarez. If he was willing to sign for the minimum, then you could give him a shot in spring training.

soxtalker
10-10-2003, 02:36 PM
Originally posted by SpringfldFan
I don't like the context of this argument in the first place. I don't want to be talking about what we can "afford", what we can get "for cheap" or what steals there are. I don't, I don't, I DON'T!!

Until that entire mentality changes in the front office, this team won't ever take the next step.

OK, I take the opposite point of view. I think that this is a wonderful thread and approach.

I do not want the Sox to start acting like the Yankees and purchasing a supply of top-dollar pitchers. While I'd be perfectly happy for them to sign one or two of those sort of pitchers, I hope that the management can demonstrate an ability to make some smart signings (and draft picks for the future).

As I recall the NYY had 7 or 8 star starters signed at the beginning of the season. The problem was going to be how to keep all of them happy. Instead many of them didn't pitch as planned. The Yankees can afford such unanticipated problems. With us it would be a disaster. If KW and his staff can identify a few inexpensive alternatives, and one or two of them turns out great, we'll be much better off.

voodoochile
10-10-2003, 02:39 PM
Originally posted by soxtalker
OK, I take the opposite point of view. I think that this is a wonderful thread and approach.

I do not want the Sox to start acting like the Yankees and purchasing a supply of top-dollar pitchers. While I'd be perfectly happy for them to sign one or two of those sort of pitchers, I hope that the management can demonstrate an ability to make some smart signings (and draft picks for the future).

As I recall the NYY had 7 or 8 star starters signed at the beginning of the season. The problem was going to be how to keep all of them happy. Instead many of them didn't pitch as planned. The Yankees can afford such unanticipated problems. With us it would be a disaster. If KW and his staff can identify a few inexpensive alternatives, and one or two of them turns out great, we'll be much better off.

You don't want the Sox to spend that much money on payroll? Why not? Depth covers holes. Wouldn't it have been nice to have had 6 veteran starters on the Sox this year? Want to bet if they would have made the playoffs if that was the case?

34 Inch Stick
10-10-2003, 03:01 PM
In defense of dibber I don't think he was saying that signing one of the above for back of the rotation is exclusive of signing one for the front. I have now joined in the Lip (from beginning of the year) philosophy of at least one extra (6) starters on the roster going into spring.

On the cheap, I think Hentgen is a great fit.

We should also start a thread about top of the rotation guys. Off the top of my head there is Maddux, Millwood, Pettite and Colon.

Colon would be at the top of my list by I think Maddux could be a good move as well. He is a great teacher. He will be going for 300. It would be great to watch him pitch against the Cubs.

dan
10-10-2003, 03:01 PM
I think building a high-quality low cost back of the rotation should be a primary concern for this team. Danny Wright and Jon Garland aren't always reliable enough to send out there every fifth day. I think there will always be an Esteban Loaiza out there, but you need to scout these players heavily before making commitments.

soxtalker
10-10-2003, 03:04 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
You don't want the Sox to spend that much money on payroll? Why not? Depth covers holes. Wouldn't it have been nice to have had 6 veteran starters on the Sox this year? Want to bet if they would have made the playoffs if that was the case?

Actually, I do want depth; it is a great way to mitigate risk. I just don't expect or even want all of those to be of the $10M variety. As I said, I'm perfectly happy to have the Sox sign one or two of these top starters. But I think that we can achieve that depth by taking the rest of the budget and signing several less expensive pitchers that have promise.

Most people seem to focus on immediate past performance as an indicator of future performance. This works often, but not always. We'd miss a Loaiza using that line of reasoning. But the reverse also occurs. Even if we buy that dream set of pitchers (and I sure thought that the Yankees had done that over the last off season), we'll make some "mistakes". I put mistakes in quotation marks, as they may be caused by unanticipated problems (e.g., injuries).

What I'm mostly arguing for, however, is that our management act intelligently. Yes, it might be nice if they spent more money. But, I'd prefer that they out-think the opposition than out-spend.

This is probably going to have to be an issue on which we're just going to have to agree to disagree. There is a segment of fans on this board that simply wants JR to spend more -- a lot more. I just don't think that will be the answer. In fact, if I could get JR to spend a lot more, I'd probably have him devote a significant portion of it on improving the farm system and scouting.

voodoochile
10-10-2003, 03:04 PM
Originally posted by dan
I think building a high-quality low cost back of the rotation should be a primary concern for this team. Danny Wright and Jon Garland aren't always reliable enough to send out there every fifth day. I think there will always be an Esteban Loaiza out there, but you need to scout these players heavily before making commitments.

Garland it fine and going to get even better once he finishes maturing. The Sox do need a 5th starter, but until Colon is signed or the Sox find a replacement #1 type pitcher, finding a 5th starter seems secondary.

voodoochile
10-10-2003, 03:06 PM
Originally posted by soxtalker
What I'm mostly arguing for, however, is that our management act intelligently. Yes, it might be nice if they spent more money. But, I'd prefer that they out-think the opposition than out-spend.


Actually, I agree with that statement for the most part, though I believe they need to rethink their salary constraints if they ever want to be serious contenders.

How about they both outthink AND outspend then they should win a pennant in no time at all...

hold2dibber
10-10-2003, 03:21 PM
Originally posted by SpringfldFan
I don't like the context of this argument in the first place. I don't want to be talking about what we can "afford", what we can get "for cheap" or what steals there are. I don't, I don't, I DON'T!!

Until that entire mentality changes in the front office, this team won't ever take the next step.

You kind of missed my point. The fact is that the Sox (like every team except the Yankees) have budgetary constraints. I think the team needs more depth at the back end of the rotation, particularly since I think it is unlikely that Loaiza will repeat his '03 performance (though I do think he'll still be pretty good) and because you can never have enough pitching. Clearly, the Sox need a top of the rotation starter - I'm hoping it's Colon, but if not, Javier Vazquez, Nomo, and possibly others should be at the top of KW's list. But beyond that, they need to sign another decent starting pitcher and they simply won't be able to afford both Colon and, for example, Kevin Milwood. It ain't gonna happen. They're going to need someone who will come in at a reasonable price and give them quality innings.

hold2dibber
10-10-2003, 03:25 PM
Originally posted by kraut83
I'm not sure if either is a free agent, but 2 possible canidates for "Esteban 04" could be either Jason Johnson or Omar Daal from B-More.

Daal is not a free agent; I'm not sure about Johnson. I strongly advocated the Sox going after Daal last offseason, but he stunk for the O's this year. I think the window has passed for him to become a good pitcher.

One other guy from the O's to consider: Scott Erickson is a FA. Due to his health issues, I'm guessing the best he'll get is a minor league deal. On those terms, he might be worth a flier.

By the way, does anyone know Sirotka's status, both physically and in terms of contract?

soxtalker
10-10-2003, 03:55 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Actually, I agree with that statement for the most part, though I believe they need to rethink their salary constraints if they ever want to be serious contenders.

How about they both outthink AND outspend then they should win a pennant in no time at all...

I have no problem with them rethinking their salary constraints, though I really don't know what they base their current constraints on. There's been a lot of speculation on that on this board (e.g., how much JR draws as a salary, possible excusion of parking fees, etc.). That doesn't mean that I simply accept that they can't raise their salary structure. I just don't know, and too much information is kept under wraps.

What I do know is that I haven't been terribly impressed with how smart they evaluate and develop talent -- whether it be through FA (lots of examples, but one that immediately comes to mind is Albert Bell) or the farm (either the acquisition part primarily by drafting or the development part). There have been other threads on this board that have dealt with KW's record in this regard. I think that it is very mixed, and I can only hope that we'll find out that he has learned from his mistakes.

So, on the salary side, I don't know how much they can go up. Probably some. But I don't know how much. On the "smarts" side, I think that they can and must do a lot better.

(On your outspending point, well, the Yankees are proably not going to be outspent. The Cubs is another question - probably difficult for the near future.)

GoSox2K3
10-10-2003, 03:57 PM
Originally posted by soxtalker
I do not want the Sox to start acting like the Yankees and purchasing a supply of top-dollar pitchers.

:reinsy
Heh heh heh - as if I'd spend the money for even 1 top dollar pitcher!

MRKARNO
10-10-2003, 05:06 PM
If I'm KW and I might be losing Colon, I'm trading away Konerko and Lee for a big time pitcher or 2 solid pitchers (maybe the dodgers would be willing to talk).

poorme
10-10-2003, 06:00 PM
low-rent is what we're gonna get. if dreaming about guys like millwood, pettite, and schilling makes you happy, more power to you!

GoSox2K3
10-10-2003, 06:04 PM
Another pipe dream that I keep hearing about on this website is the Sox trading Konerko. Ain't gonna happen.

poorme
10-10-2003, 06:05 PM
i guess it's better to keep your pipe-dream than eliminate it, at least that's how i read eugene o'neill.

RichH55
10-11-2003, 03:18 PM
Originally posted by doublem23
Isn't Omar Daal supposed to have a breakout year every year, though?

Of that list, I like Brian Anderson and Wilson Alvarez the best... Any word on how well Schoenweis is as a starter again? Wasn't he pretty good in Anaheim for a while?

I'm also pretty happy with the way Jon Rauch finished out the year in AAA. Hopefully someone can step up.

Schoenweiss is terrible as a Starter....

RichH55
10-11-2003, 03:19 PM
Originally posted by JRIG
Escobar is expecting big $$. He's way out of our price range. I have a feeling someone will look at Lidle's win total and give him at least a major league deal. Don't think he'll be a Loaiza-type guy.

I think Hentgen is a very intersting option depending on what he's asking for. He looked fully recovered when he came back this year. I've always liked Brian Anderson too, but that low K total worries me a bit.


Hentgen will be back with the O's....I would be shocked if he wasn't......especially since you are assuming he will come cheaply to be a 4th or 5th guy

RichH55
10-11-2003, 03:21 PM
5th Starter - Sterling Hitchcock