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View Full Version : A statistic which I devised which might be able to explain a lot


MRKARNO
10-07-2003, 07:31 PM
Today I was wondering how often Castillo and Pierre score when they get on and I developed a stat which gives the percent of how often it happens

Runs scored/Times on base (OBP*PA)

For instance, Albert Pujols had 137 runs and got on base 301 times, making his run scoring average .455 among the highest in the league. An average player would probably expect to score a third of the time they are on base.

Pierre: . 370 (100/270)
Castillo: .384 (99/258)

I dont know how useful this stat is so maybe other people will find it useful in the future. If someone can use it to prove that a team is worse if they have a lower run scoring percentage then please tell me!

MarkEdward
10-07-2003, 09:25 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Today I was wondering how often Castillo and Pierre score when they get on and I developed a stat which gives the percent of how often it happens

Runs scored/Times on base (OBP*PA)

For instance, Albert Pujols had 137 runs and got on base 301 times, making his run scoring average .455 among the highest in the league. An average player would probably expect to score a third of the time they are on base.

Pierre: . 370 (100/270)
Castillo: .384 (99/258)

I don't know how useful this stat is so maybe other people will find it useful in the future. If someone can use it to prove that a team is worse if they have a lower run scoring percentage then please tell me!

Well, I don't know if you will come to any conclusions, but you can run with it anyway. I have just one nit to pick: it would probably be more useful as a team stat than an individual stat. So I'd use team runs scored divided by times on base.

Again, I don't think it will show us anything new, but it could be a neat little exercise. There are already studies out there showing teams that get on base at a high rate tend to score a lot of runs, for what it's worth.

MRKARNO
10-07-2003, 09:57 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Well, I don't know if you will come to any conclusions, but you can run with it anyway. I have just one nit to pick: it would probably be more useful as a team stat than an individual stat. So I'd use team runs scored divided by times on base.

Again, I don't think it will show us anything new, but it could be a neat little exercise. There are already studies out there showing teams that get on base at a high rate tend to score a lot of runs, for what it's worth.

It is definately more valuable as a team stat

Where can I get team OBP and TPA though?

jeremyb1
10-07-2003, 10:36 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
I dont know how useful this stat is so maybe other people will find it useful in the future. If someone can use it to prove that a team is worse if they have a lower run scoring percentage then please tell me!

Problem is, I don't think its a replicable stat. Runs scored is highly dependant on your teamates which vary from year to year and lineup to lineup and the ability to drive in runs or hit with runners on has been shown to be based more or less entirely luck. The statistic pretty much just measures your teamates ability to drive you in which is pretty much just the strength of your teamates and how lucky they are.

MRKARNO
10-07-2003, 10:38 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Problem is, I don't think its a replicable stat. Runs scored is highly dependant on your teamates which vary from year to year and lineup to lineup and the ability to drive in runs or hit with runners on has been shown to be based more or less entirely luck. The statistic pretty much just measures your teamates ability to drive you in which is pretty much just the strength of your teamates and how lucky they are.

It's not good as an individual stat but it could show which teams are getting the job done with runners on base. I bet the sox would be close to last in the league here with all of the DPs.

voodoochile
10-07-2003, 11:13 PM
Why not switch the top part of the equation to runs created (runs+RBI-HR).

That wouldn't be good for team stats, but would give you how important individual players are to their teams success.

Just a suggestion.

MRKARNO
10-07-2003, 11:25 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Why not switch the top part of the equation to runs created (runs+RBI-HR).

That wouldn't be good for team stats, but would give you how important individual players are to their teams success.

Just a suggestion.

So that would be runs created over plate appearances?

Interesting but it's saying something different

I am just trying to find out how likely a runner is to score for the team if they get on base.

voodoochile
10-07-2003, 11:27 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
So that would be runs created over plate appearances?

Interesting but it's saying something different

I am just trying to find out how likely a runner is to score for the team if they get on base.

That stat is going to naturally favor guys who score a lot of runs - the guys in the 1-3 spot. In fact, I'll be blown away if you prove anything other than leadoff men are most likely to score when they reach base.

MRKARNO
10-07-2003, 11:30 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
That stat is going to naturally favor guys who score a lot of runs - the guys in the 1-3 spot. In fact, I'll be blown away if you prove anything other than leadoff men are most likely to score when they reach base.

But as a team stat, it shows how likely a run is going to score when a baserunner gets on.

It shows what teams get it done and which teams dont

voodoochile
10-07-2003, 11:33 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
But as a team stat, it shows how likely a run is going to score when a baserunner gets on.

It shows what teams get it done and which teams dont

Agreed.

I'm wondering how total bases and runs correlate is it really 1 run for every 4 bases on average or is it more?

Huisj
10-08-2003, 09:19 AM
This is an intriguing stat. I agree, it would be great for showing what teams are getting runners in more frequently, and how big their hits are. I wonder if there would be any way to correlate it to team slugging percentage too . What I mean is, it seems like it would be more likely for guys to score when they get on base and have a higher slugging percentage, because they'll already be putting themselves in scoring position more frequently when they get on base.

That said, I bet stat freaks like rob neyer and them would probably tell you that this stat would mostly show what teams got lucky. They'd say that if a team had a higher percentage one year, it wouldn't likey be just because of skill of the players, but more on luck of when they got their hits (the old "no such thing as a clutch hitter" argument), and that the next year things would probably even out. what do you guys think?

MRKARNO
10-08-2003, 03:56 PM
Does anyone have a site where I could get team plate appearances and team OBP???

voodoochile
10-08-2003, 03:58 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Does anyone have a site where I could get team plate appearances and team OBP???

You will have to calculate TPA, but this gives OBP (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/statistics?stat=teambat&league=mlb)

poorme
10-08-2003, 04:05 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Today I was wondering how often Castillo and Pierre score when they get on

you'd have to account for fielder's choices and pinch running. of course your statistic is highly dependent on who is hitting behind them. not sure what you're trying to show.

of course home run hitters are going to have higher numbers.