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View Full Version : Sign Kaz Matsui


Hangar18
10-01-2003, 12:16 PM
just want Kenny to see this

DrCrawdad
10-01-2003, 03:52 PM
Originally posted by Hangar18
just want Kenny to see this

Me too! Post this message once a week till Kaz is signed.

Hangar18
10-01-2003, 03:54 PM
Originally posted by DrCrawdad
Me too! Post this message once a week till Kaz is signed.

nice one Cradwad, I do want to see him signed. I want Kenny
to see this post in his sleeep
great minds think alike

MarkEdward
10-01-2003, 05:28 PM
While it would be nice to get Matsui, I really don't think it's a must. He's going to be 28 next season, so unless he's an extraordinary player, his best days are behind him. Aside from that, his Japanese League stats aren't exceptional. Here are his stats, along with some other players from Japan:

Kaz Matsui: 4051 ABs, .361 OBP, .477 SLG
Ichiro Suzuki: 3619 ABs, .421 OBP, .522 SLG
Tsuyoshi Shinjo: 3841 ABs, .307 OBP, .422 SLG
Sou Taguchi: 4094 ABs, .333 OBP, .387 SLG
Hideki Matsui: 4572 ABs, .413 ABs, .582 SLG

Looking at these stats, Kaz was clearly better than Shinjo and Taguchi, but not as good as Ichiro and Godzilla. If I had to make a rough prediction, I'd say Matsui would hit about .250/.325/.430 in the majors. Good numbers for a SS, but not enough to warrant a huge contract.

In my opinion, Williams should try to bring back Colon, Thomas, and Ordonez before he even thinks about Matsui.

EDIT: Hideki Matsui's line should read 4572 ABs, .413 *OBP*, and .582 SLG. Sorry about that.

By the way, I got my stats from this awesome page:
http://www.japanesebaseball.com/index.jsp

RichH55
10-01-2003, 07:03 PM
What is the name of the 2B that might potentially be coming over this offseason as well?

Chisoxfn
10-01-2003, 07:12 PM
Instead of investing all the money in Matsui...split it up and bring Cabrerra and Castillo over from Montreal and Florida. Both have proven in the major leagues that they can produce and both have very good obp's and would be a huge improvement at the top of the order. They are both entering the prime of their careers and it would be great to have one of the best middle infields in the majors.

To make room...try moving Konerko/Koch. Other alternatives are to deal Magglio.

MarkEdward
10-01-2003, 09:13 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
Instead of investing all the money in Matsui...split it up and bring Cabrerra and Castillo over from Montreal and Florida. Both have proven in the major leagues that they can produce and both have very good obp's and would be a huge improvement at the top of the order. They are both entering the prime of their careers and it would be great to have one of the best middle infields in the majors.

Orlando Cabrera... good OBP? Well, let's take a look at his career OBPs:
.263
.325
.293
.279
.324
.321
.347

One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just isn't the same...

To make room...try moving Konerko/Koch. Other alternatives are to deal Magglio.

Trade Ordonez... to make room for Orlando Cabrera? Ouch. Goodbye offense.

Sorry, feeling a bit bitter at JCU.

Chisoxfn
10-02-2003, 12:27 AM
Cabrerra is finally breaking through. He's got very good speed, some pop and is a definate upgrade over Jose.

Would I want to trade maggs, heck no, but I think the Sox need to get a good top of the order. And Cabrerra is a huge upgrade over Jose. While Castillo is a HUGE upgrade over Roberto and I don't want anyone to tell me he isn't. The guy had like a .391 OBP and can absolutely fly.

I'd love to get some speed and good defense up the middle (Although Alomar/Jose did fine with that this year. Then drop Carlos to the 5 or Frank to the 5. You could also move Maggs to the 3 and Frank to the 4 (He's probably more of a 4/5 hitter now).

Then see if you can get the Phillies interested in Koch and try Konerko to the Dodgers or Orioles. The two will make something like 15 mill...so figure if you can unload them and cut your payroll by 10 mill (You pay 5 mill between the two of them...for those that say Koch has no value...he has proven to be a great closer until this year and at least the team that takes him is only taking a shot on him for one year...if he doens't pan out they aren't stuck with a fat contract long term).

I don't give a damn what you get in return...the key is being able to reup with Colon...give yourself a much better middle infield while giving yourself the money to bring back Sully or Gordon and then go after Hawkins or another good reliever.

I doubt Gordon will be back since he wants closer money.

ANd if you want to deal Maggs the Angels would be interested. I'd prefer reaching a long term extension with Maggs that will lower this years salary yet put him in a position where he knows he can live life to his fullest once he's done with baseball.

Something around 10 mill a year long term...I say he's worth 8 mill a year, but since he's taking a pay cut this year you balance that out with a little more the rest of the way so he's more affordable. I'd prefer a 4 yr 32 mill deal with some incentives.

Just my take. Also if I were a GM, I'd pay a guy 200 K a year to simply be there to manager your salaries. I know their isn't a cap, but get a guy to program stats and all that stuff and get how much its worth. Say your interested in such and such player...program in his stats then pull up all the comparable players at a similar age and you see what they are making. From their you can find a fair price and if they don't take it...you look elsewhere.

Teams get in trouble cause they say...WE NEED THIS GUY. The fact is there are always other guys out there or a combo of them that can get the job done.

RichH55
10-02-2003, 10:38 AM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
Cabrerra is finally breaking through. He's got very good speed, some pop and is a definate upgrade over Jose.

Would I want to trade maggs, heck no, but I think the Sox need to get a good top of the order. And Cabrerra is a huge upgrade over Jose. While Castillo is a HUGE upgrade over Roberto and I don't want anyone to tell me he isn't. The guy had like a .391 OBP and can absolutely fly.

I'd love to get some speed and good defense up the middle (Although Alomar/Jose did fine with that this year. Then drop Carlos to the 5 or Frank to the 5. You could also move Maggs to the 3 and Frank to the 4 (He's probably more of a 4/5 hitter now).

Then see if you can get the Phillies interested in Koch and try Konerko to the Dodgers or Orioles. The two will make something like 15 mill...so figure if you can unload them and cut your payroll by 10 mill (You pay 5 mill between the two of them...for those that say Koch has no value...he has proven to be a great closer until this year and at least the team that takes him is only taking a shot on him for one year...if he doens't pan out they aren't stuck with a fat contract long term).

I don't give a damn what you get in return...the key is being able to reup with Colon...give yourself a much better middle infield while giving yourself the money to bring back Sully or Gordon and then go after Hawkins or another good reliever.

I doubt Gordon will be back since he wants closer money.

ANd if you want to deal Maggs the Angels would be interested. I'd prefer reaching a long term extension with Maggs that will lower this years salary yet put him in a position where he knows he can live life to his fullest once he's done with baseball.

Something around 10 mill a year long term...I say he's worth 8 mill a year, but since he's taking a pay cut this year you balance that out with a little more the rest of the way so he's more affordable. I'd prefer a 4 yr 32 mill deal with some incentives.

Just my take. Also if I were a GM, I'd pay a guy 200 K a year to simply be there to manager your salaries. I know their isn't a cap, but get a guy to program stats and all that stuff and get how much its worth. Say your interested in such and such player...program in his stats then pull up all the comparable players at a similar age and you see what they are making. From their you can find a fair price and if they don't take it...you look elsewhere.

Teams get in trouble cause they say...WE NEED THIS GUY. The fact is there are always other guys out there or a combo of them that can get the job done.


Interesting Ideas

I have been a proponent of the school of thought that thinks Konerko can be moved, and without taking on a huge salary(at least if we do take on salary it would be a productive player)....But Koch is a fixed cost.

If it was just a bad year he was coming off, then maybe you get someone who thinks it a fluke, but arm trouble for a guy who has thrown alot, relies on velocity, AND had a bad year and makes 6.25 million in a time of bad baseball economics and you are sunk.

Not to mention you can pick up Everyday Eddie for just money(and less than Koch most likely)...or if you are going to trade for a closer then Wagner is a Rich Rich man's Koch.....So I can't see anyone taking Koch

I think both the O's or LA would be good fits for Konerko, but I don't see Anaheim as a spot for Maggs...What would they offer?


Magglio and SD seem like a great fit for a number of reasons

MarkEdward
10-02-2003, 11:29 AM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
Cabrerra is finally breaking through. He's got very good speed, some pop and is a definate upgrade over Jose.

Well, so far in his career, Cabrera took about 2300 at-bats with an OBP of .300. His minor league stats also hover around this number. In about 630 ABs this year, he had an OBP of around .350. 600 ABs of .350 OBP or 3800 ABs (minor league numbers included) of a .300 OBP- what do you think is the better indicator of his talent?

Just my take. Also if I were a GM, I'd pay a guy 200 K a year to simply be there to manager your salaries. I know their isn't a cap, but get a guy to program stats and all that stuff and get how much its worth. Say your interested in such and such player...program in his stats then pull up all the comparable players at a similar age and you see what they are making. From their you can find a fair price and if they don't take it...you look elsewhere.


Well, they already have systems like this in baseball. Read "Moneyball" for more about it. Aside from that, similarity scores are available on the internet. Scroll down until you find them on this page:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/ordonma01.shtml

For what it's worth, Mags' most similar player is Mike Sweeney. Orlando Cabrera's most similar? Christian Guzman. Yikes...

fuzzy_patters
10-02-2003, 11:47 AM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Well, so far in his career, Cabrera took about 2300 at-bats with an OBP of .300. His minor league stats also hover around this number. In about 630 ABs this year, he had an OBP of around .350. 600 ABs of .350 OBP or 3800 ABs (minor league numbers included) of a .300 OBP- what do you think is the better indicator of his talent?



Well, they already have systems like this in baseball. Read "Moneyball" for more about it. Aside from that, similarity scores are available on the internet. Scroll down until you find them on this page:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/ordonma01.shtml

For what it's worth, Mags' most similar player is Mike Sweeney. Orlando Cabrera's most similar? Christian Guzman. Yikes...

I believe that is most similar for the entire career. Notice that Maggs is most similar to Mike Sweeney's career numbers, but Maggs has put those numbers up in 6 years while it took Sweeney 8. If you want to know how good Maggs really has been you should look at who he is most similar to by his present age. Here is the list:

1. Fred Lynn (952)
2. Wally Berger (950)
3. Danny Tartabull (943)
4. Mike Sweeney (939)
5. Tim Salmon (936)
6. Dave Parker (934)
7. George Bell (933)
8. Bobby Abreu (933)
9. Tony Oliva (931)
10. Larry Walker (929)

Here is the list of players most similar to Orlando Cabrera through age 27:

1. Greg Gagne (951)
2. Deivi Cruz (940)
3. Neifi Perez (940)
4. Shawon Dunston (938)
5. Gene Alley (937)
6. Alex Gonzalez (937)
7. Chris Gomez (933)
8. Lonny Frey (932)
9. Frank Bolling (932)
10. Charlie Gelbert (927)

I believe it's pretty obvious that Magglio is similar to better players than is Cabrera.

Defensively Cabrera has a fielding % of .977 for his career with a range factor of 4.46. Compare that to Christian Guzman at .967/4.20 and Jose Valentin at .956 and 4.44 as a shortstop.

It seems clear that Cabrera would be a defensive upgrade, statistically over Valentin, and he is actually better than Guzman, also. However, I'm not sure that it is worth the offensive trade-off of losing Magglio. I would much rather have a Fred Lynn than a Greg Gagne.

Chisoxfn
10-02-2003, 03:24 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Well, so far in his career, Cabrera took about 2300 at-bats with an OBP of .300. His minor league stats also hover around this number. In about 630 ABs this year, he had an OBP of around .350. 600 ABs of .350 OBP or 3800 ABs (minor league numbers included) of a .300 OBP- what do you think is the better indicator of his talent?



Well, they already have systems like this in baseball. Read "Moneyball" for more about it. Aside from that, similarity scores are available on the internet. Scroll down until you find them on this page:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/ordonma01.shtml

For what it's worth, Mags' most similar player is Mike Sweeney. Orlando Cabrera's most similar? Christian Guzman. Yikes...

Ya, I read MoneyBall...that aspect was one of the few areas that I agreed with Beane on. I disagree with not doing the "small ball".

It was a great read though. Cabrera is in the prime of his career and historically dominican players struggle early in their careers in regards to OBP and free swinging. They will never become incredibly patient hitters (Typically) but they will develop or at least some of them will..it just takes time.

Two of the past three seasons have been very solid for Cabrerra and the financial commitment would be a little less then what Jose made this past season, so why not go for it. Would I prefer Tejada or Matsui..sure, but Matsui has struck out quite a bit in Japan and I fear that could pose some trouble when/if he comes over.

MetalliSox
10-02-2003, 03:34 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
Ya, I read MoneyBall...that aspect was one of the few areas that I agreed with Beane on. I disagree with not doing the "small ball".



The part about how KW drafted Royce Ring over some other stud, name slips my mind, was interesting. We also could of had Ben Sheets in the draft but nope.

I was looking for my copy the other day to check on something and can't find it. Kind of irritating me now.

Chisoxfn
10-02-2003, 04:30 PM
Originally posted by KonerkosHip
The part about how KW drafted Royce Ring over some other stud, name slips my mind, was interesting. We also could of had Ben Sheets in the draft but nope.

I was looking for my copy the other day to check on something and can't find it. Kind of irritating me now.

Joe Blanton is the pitcher your referring too. I still find it amazing how everyone was drooling over Jeremy Brown...yet you never heard anything about Jeremy Reed for quite some time.

I'm sorry, but Reed is a far superior athlete (I know Reed has nothing to do with money ball) but he is gonna be the superior player too.

I agree with patience, but their is a huge step up when it comes to hitting in the majors.

Look at one of the Sox...Ross GLoad or you can even say Willie Harris and then there was Jeff Abbot. All were amazing minor league hitters and did some pretty damn good things, yet in the majors...nothing. Abbot is the only one to have a huge hit (That homer against the Twins in 2000). I expect Brown to have the same kind of career as some of these guys. Nothing against Brown...all I can say is overhyped. And I still say Beane is an idiot for drafting him cause he could of went with someone else...say Reed and ended up taking Jeremy Brown in the 5th or 6th round since it was known no one would take him then either. I Don't think Reed got any huge bonus?

I'm hoping Reed can do it. I really got HUGE expectations for him. By huge I mean he can come in and solidify the two hole and centerfield for a long time.

SoxxoS
10-02-2003, 05:14 PM
For Reed, just by his numbers, attitude, and everything I read about him...

I expect all-star. I don't know about perennial, but a few time A.S. at least.

I'll be OK with a "better Mark Kotsay." Kotsay is very underrated.

Chisoxfn
10-02-2003, 05:18 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
For Reed, just by his numbers, attitude, and everything I read about him...

I expect all-star. I don't know about perennial, but a few time A.S. at least.

I'll be OK with a "better Mark Kotsay." Kotsay is very underrated.

I like him to a healthy Darin Erstad with much better presence. When I hear the word dirt bag...I think Erstie and his get down and dirty style of baseball.

Not the most toolsy guy but all that heart and hustle mean a lot. Really scrappy too. Hopefully he doesn't have Erstads knees though.

MarkEdward
10-02-2003, 05:51 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn

It was a great read though. Cabrera is in the prime of his career and historically dominican players struggle early in their careers in regards to OBP and free swinging. They will never become incredibly patient hitters (Typically) but they will develop or at least some of them will..it just takes time.

Two of the past three seasons have been very solid for Cabrerra and the financial commitment would be a little less then what Jose made this past season, so why not go for it. Would I prefer Tejada or Matsui..sure, but Matsui has struck out quite a bit in Japan and I fear that could pose some trouble when/if he comes over.

Well, Cabrera has increased his walk rate throughout his career, so that could be a good sign. If he comes cheap, like less than two million, than he could be worthwhile. Like I said before, though, we'd have to bring Ordonez and Thomas back to make up for the offense we would lose at short.

Clarkdog
10-02-2003, 05:54 PM
I found this on some Asian news site, but when I create the link it kicks you to a registration page, so I'll paraphrase...here are the teams interested in Kazuo Matsui:

Kazuo Matsui of the Japanese Pacific League, is expected to be the next big Japanese free agent to enter the MLB..... likely the best all around player since Ichiro left Japan. Matsui's most likely suiters include the Angels, Diamondbacks, Mets, Mariners, Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Dodgers, A's, White Sox , Cubs, Braves

Doesn't say much else. Likely lists teams that would have a need for him.

Win1ForMe
10-02-2003, 06:03 PM
Originally posted by Chisoxfn
I like him to a healthy Darin Erstad with much better presence. When I hear the word dirt bag...I think Erstie and his get down and dirty style of baseball.

Not the most toolsy guy but all that heart and hustle mean a lot. Really scrappy too. Hopefully he doesn't have Erstads knees though.

I was kinda thinking Lenny Dykstra.

cornball
10-02-2003, 06:12 PM
Originally posted by Clarkdog
I found this on some Asian news site, but when I create the link it kicks you to a registration page, so I'll paraphrase...here are the teams interested in Kazuo Matsui:

Kazuo Matsui of the Japanese Pacific League, is expected to be the next big Japanese free agent to enter the MLB..... likely the best all around player since Ichiro left Japan. Matsui's most likely suiters include the Angels, Diamondbacks, Mets, Mariners, Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Dodgers, A's, White Sox , Cubs, Braves

Doesn't say much else. Likely lists teams that would have a need for him.

Wow thanks for the research, that is great. If you tell me you translated that too....I would be really really impressed....lol