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gosox41
09-29-2003, 10:45 PM
I've been away for 3 days and came back and had over 1500 posts to read. I tried getting through some and repsonding to what I could but it's too much. So here are my thoughts on issues facing the Sox. Somemay have been posted earlier, but repetition is my thing. My thing is repetition. :D:

1. I hate to say it, but I don't think Frank will be back next year, especially if today's Trib. gives any indications of what the Sox are thinking.

2. There's a very good chance that Magglio or Carlos will be gone, and a better chance then even that both can be traded considering Reed and Borchard are waiting in the wings. This ties in to the next point:

3. Kudos for KW for seriously going after Colon. I hope he stays, but his staying directly ties into #2. I worry since I can see the Yankees offering $2 mill. more per season and an extra year and see Colon taking it.

4. I predict Koch goes under the knife and has his elbow worked on. He'll collect his $6 mill. plus while he rehabs and then leaves the team after the 2004 season.

5. This ties in with trading Carlos and Magglio. I think the Sox will try to trade PK, but he is untradeable unless the Sox take someone elses problem who also has a big salary. While there willl always be stupid GM's, I think teams are catching on to the fact that even in a good year PK is average for his position and overpaid because of it.

6. Do NOT hire Tony LaRussa. It's a big mistake. He does a ton of tinkering and he whines a ton more then JM ever will. It would be even more ridiculous if the Sox trade Buehrle for LaRussa. That would be dumber then Foulke for Koch. Heck, hiring LaRussa and not giving up any compensation for him is just as dumb as the Foulke trade.

If the Sox wanbt to hire a proven manager, I hope the Yankees get eliminated in the playoffs so Torre becomes available. I also like Frank Robinson of the Expos.

The Sox don't necessarily need an experineced guy or to tie up a lot of money in a manager (especially if it gets taken away from player personnel moves.) They need a guy who can manage by the book, not screw his players over, and keep them motivated for every game.

Might I reccommend Carlton Fisk.

LASOXFAN, this one was for you. If the Sox do hire LaRussa, I get full complaining rights because I'm saying it's dumb before the move is even made.

7. As much as KW has shown improvement as a GM, does it bother anyone else that this guy is going to be in charge of a major overhaul? There's little doubt this off season is going to be busy and this team can look drastically different next year.

But it scares me when KW talks about rebuilding the pitching staff when the lack of a consistent offense is the problem. Sure the Sox pitching staff has holes, but so does everyone else's especially in the AL Central. In 2003, I'd take the Sox pitching staff as a whole over the Twins and Royals. While the pitching can be improved the focus needs to be on finding guys who can consistently get on base and produce.

Thank you Billy Beane. Maybe "Moneyball" helped KW see the light.

8. Not to sound too negative, but if Loiaza comes back next season and wins 15 games, I'll be thrilled.

9. Something to think about: We're 3 years in the KW regime and he still has failed to find adequate long term solutions to SS and CF. Based on what I've read, neither Borchard or Reed are good enough to be out in center.

Just a few thoughts. I look forward to any responses.

Bob

delben91
09-29-2003, 11:41 PM
I might not be following you, so correct me if I'm wrong. I fully realize that signing Colon will be a big chunk of the Sox payroll. Also, I realize that Carlos and Maggs in addition to Frank and Konerko take up large chunks of cash too. But if I understand you correctly, the Sox will likely lose Frank, and because they might resign Colon (despite losing Frank's price tag), they will be forced to trade both Maggs and Carlos?

One I could understand, but if they lose Frank, I can't see the need to lose 3 players that would all likely be making $7+ million just to keep one guy at $10 million. Approximately $21 million is much, much greater than $10 million.

As I said though, maybe I missed your point, and I welcome clarification.

captain54
09-30-2003, 12:07 AM
Originally posted by gosox41

2. There's a very good chance that Magglio or Carlos will be gone, and a better chance then even that both can be traded considering Reed and Borchard are waiting in the wings. This ties in to the next point:

5. This ties in with trading Carlos and Magglio. I think the Sox will try to trade PK, but he is untradeable unless the Sox take someone elses problem who also has a big salary. While there willl always be stupid GM's, I think teams are catching on to the fact that even in a good year PK is average for his position and overpaid because of it.

Bob


According to the Kenny Williams press conference, 9/29, he mentioned CLee and Everett as the type of "grinder" players he feels the Sox need to avoid what happened in 2003....so if CLee is traded, he is going to have some major explaining to do...

gosox41
09-30-2003, 07:06 PM
Originally posted by delben91
I might not be following you, so correct me if I'm wrong. I fully realize that signing Colon will be a big chunk of the Sox payroll. Also, I realize that Carlos and Maggs in addition to Frank and Konerko take up large chunks of cash too. But if I understand you correctly, the Sox will likely lose Frank, and because they might resign Colon (despite losing Frank's price tag), they will be forced to trade both Maggs and Carlos?

One I could understand, but if they lose Frank, I can't see the need to lose 3 players that would all likely be making $7+ million just to keep one guy at $10 million. Approximately $21 million is much, much greater than $10 million.

As I said though, maybe I missed your point, and I welcome clarification.

Here's my logic. I'm assuming the Sox are going to up their payroll about 10% to $55-56 million.

I'm going to speculate on some salaries for arbitration/free agency, but I'm trying to be realistic. here and assume Colon signs:

Colon $11 mill.
Loiaza $4 mill.
Buehrle $3.5 mill. (he's arbitration eligible)
Garland $2 mill. (he's arbitration eligible.
Gordon $4 mill. (free agent to be
Koch $6.375 mill.
Sullivan $1 mill.
Konerko $8 mill. (I think he's untradeable)
R. Alomar $3.5 mill.
Schoneweis $1.5 mill

So right now that's $45 million tied up in 10 players. I'm not saying all these moves will happen but am justgoing off specualtion of who the Sox want to bring back. If Roberto comes back, Im guessing Sandy is also back for around $750K. Wunsch can be in the $750K-1 mill range. Graffanino can also fall into that range of salary.

All this is done and the Sox still haven't solved their SS or CF problem. Maybe Thomas, Lee, and Ordonez won't all be gone, but the easiest way to fill holes is to make trades if you can't be a player in the FA market. It's hard to imagine KW getting all these things he wants done (he's mentioned bringing back Alomar, Colon,, and Gordon) and still fielding a good team with all these holes. The one thing the Sox have going for them is if they do decide to bring back everyone Lee and Ordonez are good trade bait.

Bob

OEO Magglio
09-30-2003, 07:40 PM
I agree with a lot of your guys points, here's what I think: Carlos will not be traded no matter what happens, if colon does accept, I'm pretty sure Maggs will be traded whether Frank comes back or not, I would love to see Pauly get traded, but we all know that's going to be hard to do, so I guess we'll just have to see what happens, should be a crazy offseason though.

batmanZoSo
09-30-2003, 08:07 PM
gosox41:

Why would you not want Thomas back? These guys have proven they can't win without him...nor without him hitting well. We had a terrible September. So did Thomas. We stunk in April and May. So did Thomas.

I'm pretty confident he'll have a big year next year and we have no other choice.

MetalliSox
09-30-2003, 08:24 PM
Originally posted by batmanZoSo
gosox41:

Why would you not want Thomas back? These guys have proven they can't win without him...nor without him hitting well. We had a terrible September. So did Thomas. We stunk in April and May. So did Thomas.

I'm pretty confident he'll have a big year next year and we have no other choice.

40 HRs and 100 RBI's is tough to replace. I love Frank but he just needs to be moved out of the #3 spot. Average not high enough despite awesome OBP.

Tragg
09-30-2003, 09:59 PM
I agree with much of your post particularly the "do not hire larussa part" (trading MB for him would be a disgrace) and the failure to find solutions at CF and SS - although I would add lead-off hitter as well, although that could be solved if CF and SS are solved, depending on with whom.

And our real problem was O, specifically the inability to get on base. Why would we trade Maggs, one of the premiere hitters in the game, in his prime, and showing no signs of decline? I can't possibly imagine getting fair value for him.

gosox41
10-01-2003, 10:17 AM
Originally posted by batmanZoSo
gosox41:

Why would you not want Thomas back? These guys have proven they can't win without him...nor without him hitting well. We had a terrible September. So did Thomas. We stunk in April and May. So did Thomas.

I'm pretty confident he'll have a big year next year and we have no other choice.

Actually I do want Thomas back. He's my all time favorite player and still the most productive hitter on the team. I should have been clearer on my point. While I hope he is back, I don't think he will be.

The Tribune has reported that if Thomas declines his $6 mill. option, the Sox are likely to decline his $8 mill. option (of which he'd still be a bargain.)

Bob

gosox41
10-01-2003, 10:23 AM
Originally posted by Tragg
I agree with much of your post particularly the "do not hire larussa part" (trading MB for him would be a disgrace) and the failure to find solutions at CF and SS - although I would add lead-off hitter as well, although that could be solved if CF and SS are solved, depending on with whom.

And our real problem was O, specifically the inability to get on base. Why would we trade Maggs, one of the premiere hitters in the game, in his prime, and showing no signs of decline? I can't possibly imagine getting fair value for him.

I've been thinking about the possible trading of Magglio. If you break it down, there is only 1 team that would want to take on his salary for a year...the Yankees. The Yankees would also try to resign him. They have a lot of payroll coming off the books and could find a place for him in RF. I don't see any other team willing to trade for him because they can't afford it or alrady have a good RFer.


So here is what I think will happen. Notice I didn't say I am in favor of it, and this is just my prediction with no basis of fact.

I can see the Sox trading Magglio to the Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Nick Johnson, and some cash to cover Weaver's salary.

The theory is that Weaver is supposedly healthy and had a terrible, terrible year in NY where he supposedly doesn't like it. THe Yankees are probably going to want to dump him. Assuming he is 100% healthy, the Sox may seem him as worht the risk. His numbers only went really bad when he went to the Yankees. Gettink Nick Johnson is also a big plus.

It's a deal that MAY solve the White Sox 5th starter issue (assuming Colon is resigned), free up pay roll, and get a left handed hitter that has a high ceiling.

The more I think about it, the more sense it makes assuming the Yankees fork over half of Weaver's salary and that Weaver is 100% healthy.

Bob