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View Full Version : 2004: The Magic Number is $76,000,000


Clarkdog
09-28-2003, 04:41 PM
Looking at what the Sox have committed in salary in 2004 as well as what where they need to plug holes I figure it will take a payroll of about $76 million to do it.

Assumptions are part of everything on this board - so here are mine:

1. Sox make signing Colon the top priority, and strike a three-year $35 million deal w/ incentives (10, 11.5, 13.5).

2. Sox make Valentin a free agent, and pursue Kazuo Matsui to fill in SS signing him to a three-year $18 million deal w/ incentives (5, 6, 7). Matsui gives the Sox a switch hitting leadoff presence with speed, a player that hits for average as well as has good pop in his bat. Scouts say he may be the second best shortstop in the world (A-Rod).

3. Sox allow Sullivan, Everett, Daubach to become free agents

4. Sox sign Robbie Alomar to a one-year $2.5 million contract w/incentives (He has been reported saying that money was not an object for next season - I'm assuming he'd be okay with this type of pay cut - he is 38)

5. Sox also sign Gordon to a two-year deal worth $4.5 million (2, 2.5)

So here's what I came with:

Rotation: $20.5 Million
Colon: 10, Buehrle: 3.5 (Arbitration), Loaiza: 3.5 (Option Excercised), Garland: 2 (Arbitration), Schoenweis: 1.5 (under contract)

Lineup: $42.5 Million
1B-Konerko: 8, 2B-Alomar: 2.5, SS-Matsui: 5, 3B-Crede: .325, LF-Lee 6 (Arbitration), CF-Rowand: .350, RF-Ordonez: 14, DH-Thomas 6, C-Olivio .325

Bench: $2.25 Million
IF/OF-Harris: .325, IF-Graffanino: .675, C-Alomar: .7, Additional Player: .5

Bullpen: $10.85 Million
Koch: 6.75, Gordon: 2, Marte: .375, Wunsch: .750, Adkins: .3, Wright: .375, Munoz/Ginter/Sanders/Cotts: .3

TOTAL: $76,400,000

This is by no means perfect, my contract assumptions are guesses of what might happen given the economic changes in baseball. In fact given the financial history of the management of the franchise it's a pipe dream. But for the sake of daydreaming...

I feel this roster still makes us too right-handed. Matsui improves our team speed, but is it enough? This team still would be swinging for the fences in the middle of the lineup. And the bullpen looks shaky to me.

I tend to agree with what has been said on other threads - Maggs and Konerko's contract are albatrosses. Maggs has value and if traded (and I hate saying it), it could give the Sox flexibilty under this type payroll figure to address all their needs.

I'm interested in the forum's thoughts.

Sorry for the long post.

SoxxoS
09-28-2003, 05:27 PM
Near 7 million for Koch???!!!!


:chunks

Hangar18
09-28-2003, 05:48 PM
Originally posted by Clarkdog
Looking at what the Sox have committed in salary in 2004 as well as what where they need to plug holes I figure it will take a payroll of about $76 million to do it.

Assumptions are part of everything on this board - so here are mine:

1. Sox make signing Colon the top priority, and strike a three-year $35 million deal w/ incentives (10, 11.5, 13.5).

2. Sox make Valentin a free agent, and pursue Kazuo Matsui to fill in SS signing him to a three-year $18 million deal w/ incentives (5, 6, 7). Matsui gives the Sox a switch hitting leadoff presence with speed, a player that hits for average as well as has good pop in his bat. Scouts say he may be the second best shortstop in the world (A-Rod).

I feel this roster still makes us too right-handed. Matsui improves our team speed, but is it enough? This team still would be swinging for the fences in the middle of the lineup. And the bullpen looks shaky to me.

I tend to agree with what has been said on other threads - Maggs and Konerko's contract are albatrosses. Maggs has value and if traded (and I hate saying it), it could give the Sox flexibilty under this type payroll figure to address all their needs.

I'm interested in the forum's thoughts.

Sorry for the long post.

Say, I found your post to be VERY INTERESTING and INTRIGUEING.
First of all, someone here mentioned the status of Mausui, and I LOVE WHAT HE COULD MEAN TO US HERE. If were going to spend $$$$$ on Valentin, why wouldnt we use it on a SS with MORE TOOLS? We must DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO SIGN THIS GUY. He has SPEED (we dont have) can Hit LEFTY (we dont have enough) has TALENT (something we never have enough of)
and WAY MORE IMPORTANTLY.....HAS MARKETABILITY. Marketability IS HUGE and shouldve NEVER BEEN IGNORED by the Sox. Chevy signs a retired cub, and an AllStar SOX player, but who is getting all the "attention" and Commercials suddenly for this? Santos 10 being "retired" is no Coincidence..........but a SLICK MARKETING PLOY to Capitalize on the attention being heaped on him. IF you dont think so......Ive got a bridge to sell you. The Cubs again Pulled a Slick yet Shrewd Shell Game type of maneuver by suddenly wanting to "Retire" his number. how in the world is Maggs, a 3 time all star being overshadowed by a Marble Mouthed, untalented past his prime announcer as far as Commercials go?

Just North of Comiskey, is a HUGE ASIAN community, and having a Matsui on our club, would do something that hasnt been Done in YEARS IN CHICAGO. FORCE THE MEDIA TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE SOX. SURe, sound goofy and there are some here who subscribe to the "Just Win....and Media Attention will come theory". I DONT SUBSCRIBE TO THIS THEORY. I believe in being PROACTIVE, something the SOX Havnt Been in ages. THE SOX must stop this Landslide of Media Attention thats is Favorably Accorded to the Cubs and take the bull by the horns and Take Advantage of the BUILT IN Marketing Frenzy that will come should the Sox sign him. Another reason to do it, is because a certain team up NOrth, ALready Capable of Marketing Ice Making Machines to Eskimos, have probably already Targeted him. As if playing .500 werent enough, but having a playoff season to fall back on, assures them for a few more Years of Lavish Media Attention. Signing Matsui would be the first of a number of Steps in taking this City Back, and the Division back.
Having a SLick Fielding, big time SS would harken memories of Aparicio for sure. Think about it.....The Media are Like CHILDREN. YOu must keep them Occupied, and give them things to "Occupy" their time. Give them "pre-written" stories to chew on. Mike Kiley is probably wetting his pants nitely at the thought of him being in a cub uniform. Couch is already heading to Chinatown to ask Asian Fans if they 'll cheer for the cubs now. Mitchell probably has a few qa's lined up Asking him the difference between Japanese Steak and CHicago Steak. were paying a one dimensional player 5 Million when we could have a muli tooled, market ready guy like Matsui for the SAME PRICE. it adds up to me. Keep Valentin on the bench for Cheap, i like his bat off the bench.

I am Chicago-Media-Pee-My-Pants-Cub-Giddy at the Idea of having KAZ in a WHITE SOX UNIFORM. Do it KENNY

MRKARNO
09-28-2003, 06:02 PM
I just dont see Kaz Matsui going for 3 years 18 Mil. Probably more like 24 mil for the same time period and doesnt a club need to pay a ridiculous figure just to have contract discussions with these japanese players (10,000,000?). No way JR brings in Kaz, but it's nice to think about

Lip Man 1
09-28-2003, 06:50 PM
I would be shocked, stunned and rendered mute if the Sox payroll to begin the 2004 season was one cent over 65 million.

Hell I'll be amazed if it's over 60 million.

Lip

TDog
09-28-2003, 07:04 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
I would be shocked, stunned and rendered mute if the Sox payroll to begin the 2004 season was one cent over 65 million.

Hell I'll be amazed if it's over 60 million.

Lip

Although, the Sox might have won more games this year with a lower payroll.

If we had traded Foulke for minor league pitchers instead of an established closer and if we had sold Konerko's contract before opening day, the Sox could well have won more games for less money. Both moves are hypothetical and plausible only in hindsight. They certainly would have been attacked on this board. But Bill Veeck once said the problem isn't the high cost of talent, but the high cost of mediocrity. Unfortunately, by the end of the 1970s, he could afford neither.

Hangar18
09-29-2003, 08:34 AM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
I just dont see Kaz Matsui going for 3 years 18 Mil. Probably more like 24 mil for the same time period and doesnt a club need to pay a ridiculous figure just to have contract discussions with these japanese players (10,000,000?). No way JR brings in Kaz, but it's nice to think about

Signing KAZ would put the SOX IMMEDIATELY on the map (and cost effectively, pay itself with Media Attention and Free Publicity ala a certain player on the Mariners) I cant think of a more PERFECT SIGNING than this one. Fills about 3 holes we have, plus a 4th hole weve ALWAYS IGNORED. MARKETING.

hold2dibber
09-29-2003, 08:34 AM
Originally posted by Clarkdog
1. Sox make signing Colon the top priority, and strike a three-year $35 million deal w/ incentives (10, 11.5, 13.5).

Do you think it will cost that much to retain Colon? I think 3 years $30 million. He's had one great year and a half dozen pretty good years.

2. Sox make Valentin a free agent, and pursue Kazuo Matsui to fill in SS signing him to a three-year $18 million deal w/ incentives (5, 6, 7). Matsui gives the Sox a switch hitting leadoff presence with speed, a player that hits for average as well as has good pop in his bat. Scouts say he may be the second best shortstop in the world (A-Rod).

Nice thought, but will not happen. The Sox would have to put MILLIONS on the table just to get the right to bid on Matsui. Of course, I haven't seen him play so I don't know if he'd be worth it. But I just can't see JR getting in on that action, particularly since rumors abound that they've already started talking with Valentin about re-signing him. I think Jose will be back.


4. Sox sign Robbie Alomar to a one-year $2.5 million contract w/incentives (He has been reported saying that money was not an object for next season - I'm assuming he'd be okay with this type of pay cut - he is 38)

He won't sign for less than two years. But I bet he'd sign for 2 years, $4 million. And I for one would want him back under those conditions.

5. Sox also sign Gordon to a two-year deal worth $4.5 million (2, 2.5)

I think he'll want more. Two years, at least $6 million.

Overall, the one thing that is missing from your analysis is trades. I have little doubt that KW will pull a few deals over the winter. I expect that he will try like hell to deal Konerko and will deal either Maggs or Lee. If Maggs stay, I would be very surprised if they didn't sign him to an extension and ask him to defer some of the $14 million he is owed for next year. It will definitely be an interesting and challenging off season. Here's hoping it's a fruitful one as well.

jabrch
09-29-2003, 08:46 AM
Originally posted by Clarkdog
Looking at what the Sox have committed in salary in 2004 as well as what where they need to plug holes I figure it will take a payroll of about $76 million to do it.

Assumptions are part of everything on this board - so here are mine:

1. Sox make signing Colon the top priority, and strike a three-year $35 million deal w/ incentives (10, 11.5, 13.5).

2. Sox make Valentin a free agent, and pursue Kazuo Matsui to fill in SS signing him to a three-year $18 million deal w/ incentives (5, 6, 7). Matsui gives the Sox a switch hitting leadoff presence with speed, a player that hits for average as well as has good pop in his bat. Scouts say he may be the second best shortstop in the world (A-Rod).

3. Sox allow Sullivan, Everett, Daubach to become free agents

4. Sox sign Robbie Alomar to a one-year $2.5 million contract w/incentives (He has been reported saying that money was not an object for next season - I'm assuming he'd be okay with this type of pay cut - he is 38)

5. Sox also sign Gordon to a two-year deal worth $4.5 million (2, 2.5)

So here's what I came with:

Rotation: $20.5 Million
Colon: 10, Buehrle: 3.5 (Arbitration), Loaiza: 3.5 (Option Excercised), Garland: 2 (Arbitration), Schoenweis: 1.5 (under contract)

Lineup: $42.5 Million
1B-Konerko: 8, 2B-Alomar: 2.5, SS-Matsui: 5, 3B-Crede: .325, LF-Lee 6 (Arbitration), CF-Rowand: .350, RF-Ordonez: 14, DH-Thomas 6, C-Olivio .325

Bench: $2.25 Million
IF/OF-Harris: .325, IF-Graffanino: .675, C-Alomar: .7, Additional Player: .5

Bullpen: $10.85 Million
Koch: 6.75, Gordon: 2, Marte: .375, Wunsch: .750, Adkins: .3, Wright: .375, Munoz/Ginter/Sanders/Cotts: .3

TOTAL: $76,400,000

This is by no means perfect, my contract assumptions are guesses of what might happen given the economic changes in baseball. In fact given the financial history of the management of the franchise it's a pipe dream. But for the sake of daydreaming...

I feel this roster still makes us too right-handed. Matsui improves our team speed, but is it enough? This team still would be swinging for the fences in the middle of the lineup. And the bullpen looks shaky to me.

I tend to agree with what has been said on other threads - Maggs and Konerko's contract are albatrosses. Maggs has value and if traded (and I hate saying it), it could give the Sox flexibilty under this type payroll figure to address all their needs.

I'm interested in the forum's thoughts.

Sorry for the long post.

Fairly accurate....I think you are light on Matsui. 5MM won't get this guy. He is going to get significant interest from Anaheim, LA and Seattle and will be closer to 10 than to 5 (my guess is 7.5). I also think Graffy will be closer to 1mm. He is a very solid bench IF and some teams (in particularly NL teams) would love to have him.

but you are fairly accurate I think...76mm...No way...not gonna happen. 51 this year...lets say JR raises it to 60...now we need to trim 16mm right off the payroll... Not easy...not with some untradeable contracts...

Mammoo
09-29-2003, 08:58 AM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
Near 7 million for Koch???!!!!

Exactly my feelings. I've said it before, how can you count on this guy at those prices. Either he renegotiates or figure a way to move him.

If Jim Hendry can trade Todd Hundley (for two key performers as it turns out), KW can find someone to take this guy!!!

voodoochile
09-29-2003, 09:35 AM
I think the original estimate on Buehrle's arbitration number is low. I expect him to get about $2M more than that in arbitration (at least). Regardless of his performance this past year, he has proven to be a solid #2 pitcher and those guys make more than $3.5M. Also, just because the owners have changed how much they are willing to pay, doesn't mean the arbitrators will follow that pattern. They base their numbers on average salarys for comparable pitchers. Buehrle's guys have plenty of examples of other pitchers who aren't as good who make way more money.

JR and KW can squawk, "But no one does that anymore" until their heads explode and it won't matter in the least.

How much will Jeff Weaver make next year?

Dadawg_77
09-29-2003, 10:25 AM
Originally posted by voodoochile
I think the original estimate on Buehrle's arbitration number is low. I expect him to get about $2M more than that in arbitration (at least). Regardless of his performance this past year, he has proven to be a solid #2 pitcher and those guys make more than $3.5M. Also, just because the owners have changed how much they are willing to pay, doesn't mean the arbitrators will follow that pattern. They base their numbers on average salarys for comparable pitchers. Buehrle's guys have plenty of examples of other pitchers who aren't as good who make way more money.

JR and KW can squawk, "But no one does that anymore" until their heads explode and it won't matter in the least.

How much will Jeff Weaver make next year?

This is Mark's first year of arbitration, thus the number is lower then what he will get next year and the year after that. 3.5 is about right considering that fact.

Thomas won't take his six million option so the Sox will have to pay him 8 million. If they don't use their option, they have to buy him out for 2 million and I could think of a few team who would be willing to pay over four million for the services of Frank Thomas.

Gordon will get at least six million a year for two or three years.

Lee arbritration should be higher the 6, maybe 7 or 8. With the roster you listed the Sox will have a payroll of 80 or so million.

Jess1210
09-29-2003, 10:39 AM
The $76 mill sounds like a great idea, but...sure seems like it's unlikely. A quote from an article in today's Daily Southtown:

"Although Williams won't know what payroll he will have to work with until November at the earliest, he said it won't be much more than the $56 million the Sox ended the season with.

"(The payroll) may go up marginally," Williams said. "We're still going to have to do some juggling. We still don't have the resources to add significantly to the payroll. But as I've said before, so be it. We'll make it work." "

http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dssports/pro/291sd5.htm

That being said, should be interesting to see what happens with some of the bigger contracts the Sox have to work with.

voodoochile
09-29-2003, 10:41 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
This is Mark's first year of arbitration, thus the number is lower then what he will get next year and the year after that. 3.5 is about right considering that fact.

Thomas won't take his six million option so the Sox will have to pay him 8 million. If they don't use their option, they have to buy him out for 2 million and I could think of a few team who would be willing to pay over four million for the services of Frank Thomas.

Gordon will get at least six million a year for two or three years.

Lee arbritration should be higher the 6, maybe 7 or 8. With the roster you listed the Sox will have a payroll of 80 or so million.

According to the trib, the $2M buyout in Frank's contract is money that he gives them if he chooses to be a FA instead of accept their $8M option after he declines his own.

hold2dibber
09-29-2003, 11:49 AM
Originally posted by Jess1210
The $76 mill sounds like a great idea, but...sure seems like it's unlikely. A quote from an article in today's Daily Southtown:

"Although Williams won't know what payroll he will have to work with until November at the earliest, he said it won't be much more than the $56 million the Sox ended the season with.

"(The payroll) may go up marginally," Williams said. "We're still going to have to do some juggling. We still don't have the resources to add significantly to the payroll. But as I've said before, so be it. We'll make it work." "

http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dssports/pro/291sd5.htm

That being said, should be interesting to see what happens with some of the bigger contracts the Sox have to work with.

In light of the fact that KW has admitted that he has an offer on the table to Colon, and we can assume that the offer includes a salary that is at least as much as he made this year ($8.5 mm, IIRC), it is obvious to me that KW is going to have to move players this offseason to trim payroll. Even if they didn't try to re-sign Colon, the payroll would go up (even with his $8.5 mm off the books) based upon raises for Maggs, CLee, Buehrle, Koch, Garland and PK. If you add Colon back into the mix, you can be certain that someone (at least one) among Maggs, Lee, PK and Frank will be gone next year.

Clarkdog
09-29-2003, 12:09 PM
Hey all -

Thanks for the feedback. I'll try and clarify some assumptions and answers some of the replies in this post.

Colon: Dibber, if we can get Colon for 3/$30M we should jump at it. Colon has made it clear to KW that he wants to stay, but he will leverage the BoSox/Yankees to increase the value contract - that why I feel like he'll be closer to the 3/$35M.

Matsui: Hangar, I TOTALLY agree with you on the marketability of a player like Matsui. He is an exciting five tool player that can be sold to the fans - to combat the Sosa effect. As for his total numbers, they are not that different than the contracts of Ichiro or Hideki Matsui. In addition, the Padres had made an offer of 3/$17M recently (a move protested by the Seibu Lions to Selig as the Padres were tampering with a player still under contract to them) so 3/$18 could be in the ballpark.

Gordon: I could see him wanting more, and agree that 2/$6 would likely secure him. But Koch's $6.75M contract isn't going to allow that to happen. Either Koch renegotiates so that Gordon can stay and set up - or Gordon likely goes to Philadelphia to close.

Trades: I didn't put any trades in because it would have made the post longer. But there is no doubt that trading big contracts may be in the picture if you read the Cubune today.

$76,000,000: Lip, I would not only be shocked, stunned, and rendered mute - you would need break out the defribilator as my heart would likely stop beating if the Sox commited this type of money. But that's how I think it shakes out - $76M gets you a club that while light in some areas is a contender. Lower than that and you will field a team with obvious holes.

jabrch
09-29-2003, 12:55 PM
Originally posted by Clarkdog $76,000,000: Lip, I would not only be shocked, stunned, and rendered mute - you would need break out the defribilator as my heart would likely stop beating if the Sox commited this type of money. But that's how I think it shakes out - $76M gets you a club that while light in some areas is a contender. Lower than that and you will field a team with obvious holes.

I'll go one step further...

Mr. Reinsdorf, and I know you or your people are reading this, I came to 13 games this season. I bought all those tickets either last minute as a walkup or using the Granton Marketing deal that was sold in August/September.

If you should decide to committ 76,000,000 in payroll to this team in 2004, I will puchase season tickets. I know that only means about $6500 in revenue for my 4 tickets, but I am not alone here. We comitted to you last year. Just under 2,000,000 came through your turnstyles. We payed to eat your hotdogs, drank your beer, bought your shirts and caps. We payed the outrageous sum of $15 to park in your parking lots even. We will come again...IF YOU COMMITT TO WINNING. Now reality is, even if you don't, I'll come to about 6 games. I'll come to something the first week and something the last week. I'll come for my birthday and for my best friend's birthday. I'll bring my cousins and I'll bring my grandfather. But if you want me to buy season tickets, grab that checkbook... Here's what you do...

Bring back Mags
Bring back Frank
Bring back Colon
Sign another starter
Get Matsui
Bring back Robby A.
Sign Carlos to a 3 year deal - at least offer him arbitration
Make sure we still have a strong bullpen

If you can do that...I'll buy season tickets.