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Hangar18
09-15-2003, 08:10 AM
Isnt it 14 Now? 2 sox wins over the weekend and a MInny Loss?

WinningUgly!
09-15-2003, 08:21 AM
Originally posted by Hangar18
Isnt it 14 Now? 2 sox wins over the weekend and a MInny Loss?


12 (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html)

jabrch
09-15-2003, 08:24 AM
Originally posted by WinningUgly!
12 (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html)


How can that be? There are thirteen games left on the schedule for both the Sox and the Twins. We are tied for first. If we win 12 and they win 13, we lose. I would think the magic number would have to be 14 right now. What's the math behind this that I am missing?

jabrch
09-15-2003, 08:30 AM
Originally posted by WinningUgly!
12 (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/american_league.html)

I looked at the RIOT explanation - that is not a magic number. It is more of a probability based projection. I think traditional magic numbers are more accurate pictures of the division. Right now, whichever team combines for 14 wins or opponent losses wins the division. The problem with 12 is that it is entirely mathematically possible for BOTH teams to win 12 games in the next 14 - thus neither would have clinched and that number would be revised upwards.

The traditional Magic Number is 14.

harwar
09-15-2003, 08:31 AM
I believe their magic number is 1 .. just win one at a time.
The problem is that we almost have to sweep the twins and take 6 out of 7 from the royals because while we are playing the royals they will be sweeping the tigers(who they always beat).

Hangar18
09-15-2003, 08:35 AM
Originally posted by jabrch
I looked at the RIOT explanation - that is not a magic number. It is more of a probability based projection. I think traditional magic numbers are more accurate pictures of the division. Right now, whichever team combines for 14 wins or opponent losses wins the division. The problem with 12 is that it is entirely mathematically possible for BOTH teams to win 12 games in the next 14 - thus neither would have clinched and that number would be revised upwards.

The traditional Magic Number is 14.

Thats what I thought. it was 17, before we decided to Lose on Thursday. We lost and so did minny on Friday...making it 16.
Sox then won two more, and Minny won their two games, making the Magic Number, or so I thought.... 14.

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 09:39 AM
Originally posted by jabrch
I looked at the RIOT explanation - that is not a magic number. It is more of a probability based projection. I think traditional magic numbers are more accurate pictures of the division. Right now, whichever team combines for 14 wins or opponent losses wins the division. The problem with 12 is that it is entirely mathematically possible for BOTH teams to win 12 games in the next 14 - thus neither would have clinched and that number would be revised upwards.

The traditional Magic Number is 14.


No it is not possible for both teams to win 12 games. Each team has has 13 games left. So if the Sox go 12-1, the Twins must lose at least two games, thus the best they can do 11-2. RIOT takes into account the simple fact that no two teams in the same league can mathematically go 162-0 at the start of the year. So if the Sox win 12 games the rest of the way, they must win the Central. Now the Sox can go 10-3 and the Twins 11-2, so the ROIT number is calculated in the same way as the traditional magic number, it gives you the number of wins needed to secure the division without any help.

voodoochile
09-15-2003, 12:45 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
No it is not possible for both teams to win 12 games. Each team has has 13 games left. So if the Sox go 12-1, the Twins must lose at least two games, thus the best they can do 11-2. RIOT takes into account the simple fact that no two teams in the same league can mathematically go 162-0 at the start of the year. So if the Sox win 12 games the rest of the way, they must win the Central. Now the Sox can go 10-3 and the Twins 11-2, so the ROIT number is calculated in the same way as the traditional magic number, it gives you the number of wins needed to secure the division without any help.

Thanks for the explanation. They are basically saying that someone has to win the upcoming series and thus one of them will pick up two on the magic number by The end of Thursday's game. They've just already counted in those two...

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 12:51 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Thanks for the explanation. They are basically saying that someone has to win the upcoming series and thus one of them will pick up two on the magic number by The end of Thursday's game. They've just already counted in those two...

Not necessarily. The Sox can go 10-3 the rest of the way, and the Twins can go 11-2. Thus the Sox hit the number for 12 but the Twins hit 13. So 10 wins by the Sox and two loses by the Twins will not secure the Central for the Sox, while 12 wins would. The RIOT number your magic number to win it all without any help, loses form the second place or tied team. If you look at their chart the teams with * can not win by themselves but require another team(s) to lose.

A.T. Money
09-15-2003, 12:52 PM
Sox Magic Number is 11, tied with Minnesota.

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 12:56 PM
Originally posted by A.T. Money
Sox Magic Number is 11, tied with Minnesota.

It should be 12. 11 would force a one game playoff since both teams could go 11-2. Since the one game playoff is part of the regular season, the Sox or Twins would need to win that one.

Brian26
09-15-2003, 01:04 PM
The Sox magic number is 14 as we speak on 9/15.

Calculate it by taking the number of games left to play (13), subtract the amount of losses back the 2nd place team is (0 in this case), and add 1.

13 + 0 + 1 = 14.

The Twins and Sox both have the same magic number right now.

If the Twins lose tonight, the Sox magic number will be 13 and the Twins will not have a magic number since they won't be in first place.

Hangar18
09-15-2003, 01:13 PM
Originally posted by Brian26
The Sox magic number is 14 as we speak on 9/15.

Calculate it by taking the number of games left to play (13), subtract the amount of losses back the 2nd place team is (0 in this case), and add 1.

13 + 0 + 1 = 14.

The Twins and Sox both have the same magic number right now.

If the Twins lose tonight, the Sox magic number will be 13 and the Twins will not have a magic number since they won't be in first place.


YES...if everyone Remembers, the Magic Number for the SOX was 17 going into Thursdays game. We lost, and Twins won, so we gained nothing. where the heck is everyone getting these numbers from? that Riot system is confusing as heck.....
I did check the Cubs magic number according to Riot its 2004

34 Inch Stick
09-15-2003, 01:28 PM
There is no need to talk about Magic Numbers until late Thursday evening.

ma-gaga
09-15-2003, 01:36 PM
Everyone get's a magic number. Brian's formula is close. I use 163 - team wins - opponents losses. So, both Minny and Chicago have 163 - 80 - 69 = 14. The RIOT number is technically correct, but there's something non-intuitive about it, and I don't like it, but what the hell do I know?

Anyways, with 13 games or so to go, the AL Centrals' magic numbers look something like the following:

White Sox = 14
Twins = 14
KC = 18
Cleveand = 29
Detroit = 56

Obviously, Cleveland and Detroit are eliminated. There's no way for them to make up 29/56 games in 13. KC needs a lot of help, they essentially need to win out and hope for 5 losses from BOTH Minny or Chicago.

Regardless, it's neck and neck thus far. 13 games to go...

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 01:57 PM
Originally posted by ma-gaga
Everyone get's a magic number. Brian's formula is close. I use 163 - team wins - opponents losses. So, both Minny and Chicago have 163 - 80 - 69 = 14. The RIOT number is technically correct, but there's something non-intuitive about it, and I don't like it, but what the hell do I know?

Anyways, with 13 games or so to go, the AL Centrals' magic numbers look something like the following:

White Sox = 14
Twins = 14
KC = 18
Cleveand = 29
Detroit = 56

Obviously, Cleveland and Detroit are eliminated. There's no way for them to make up 29/56 games in 13. KC needs a lot of help, they essentially need to win out and hope for 5 losses from either Minny or Chicago.

Regardless, it's neck and neck thus far. 13 games to go...

5 losses from both Minn and the Sox are needed for KC to win.

ma-gaga
09-15-2003, 07:01 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
5 losses from both Minn and the Sox are needed for KC to win.

uh... yeah. What he said.

:) hey, an 'edit post' button!!!

ChiSox21
09-15-2003, 07:22 PM
this magic number thing is such a jinx

PaleHoseGeorge
09-15-2003, 08:07 PM
Originally posted by ChiSox21
this magic number thing is such a jinx

I agree. Two words, people: Loss Column. It will never steer you wrong.

:gulp:

TornLabrum
09-15-2003, 09:05 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
I agree. Two words, people: Loss Column. It will never steer you wrong.

:gulp:

The "magic number" idea isn't a bad oen. As originally defined it is quite simple: the number of (in our case) Sox wins and Twins (or Royals if you still want to calculate it for them) that guarantees they win the division. Simple.

Of course the statheads had to go and make it hard and meaningless basing it on probabilities when what you really need is the hard numbers.

StillMissOzzie
09-16-2003, 01:54 AM
Well, since we've still got 7 games to play vs. the Royals, we do have to count them in. If the Royals do run the table, then they obviously pass the Sox and get back into the thick of it with MN. My problem with the Magic Number in a close race like this is that you don't know for sure who the other guy, in 2nd place, is. Since MN did win tonight, the Sox are the other guy since they're now 1/2 game out

Yes, in the end, it's Loss Column that matters. I don't worry too much about Magic Numbers until I think that clinching is inevitable, and we're not there yet.

SMO
:gulp:

kempsted
09-16-2003, 01:04 PM
Originally posted by StillMissOzzie


Yes, in the end, it's Loss Column that matters. I don't worry too much about Magic Numbers until I think that clinching is inevitable, and we're not there yet.

SMO
:gulp:

OK folks I know that people always say the loss column but today is a perfect example why that is NOT the only thing that matters. We are tied with Minneosta in the loss column - but they have more wins. That means they have played one more game and already won it. The BEST we could do is just as good. At this point in the race that is big.