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View Full Version : Rethink it people, Carlos LEE for MVP


Gumshoe
09-14-2003, 06:17 PM
Come on guys, I mean, have you all been watching what C Lee has been doing lately? This guy is unbelievable. He hits, hits for power, drives in runs, steals bases, makes plays ... I love the guy. He has arrived. So dangerous. His RBI are seemingly always meaningful too. I hope he continues.

My vote goes for C Lee for MVP. You guys still disagree?

Gumshoe

Unregistered
09-14-2003, 06:22 PM
I agree, especially after today's display.

If Carlos keeps it up, he's going to finish with something like:

.300 BA
30+ Home Runs
~115 RBIs
20 stolen bases

and a handful of great defensive plays
(sure he's had a few blunders, but the difference has been huge.)

MRKARNO
09-14-2003, 06:28 PM
Well if september performances are the most important issue and the sox make the playoffs then I think he needs just as much consideration as Maggs. Frank for MVP is a joke IMHO.

PaleHoseGeorge
09-14-2003, 06:31 PM
Any fastball hitter getting to bat directly in front of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez ought to have an asterisks next to their offensive stats.

Valentin ate up the American League given the same role in '00.

FarWestChicago
09-14-2003, 06:33 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Any fastball hitter getting to bat directly in front of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez ought to have an asterisks next to their offensive stats.

Valentin ate up the American League given the same role in '00. Hey, lay off the Horse. :smile:

Asterisk or not, he's been doing well. And who can forget his Flub killings? :cool:

RKMeibalane
09-14-2003, 06:35 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Any fastball hitter getting to bat directly in front of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez ought to have an asterisks next to their offensive stats.

Valentin ate up the American League given the same role in '00.

Exactly. Lee wasn't doing this earlier in the year when he was hitting in the number five spot.

Gumshoe
09-14-2003, 06:35 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Any fastball hitter getting to bat directly in front of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez ought to have an asterisks next to their offensive stats.

Valentin ate up the American League given the same role in '00.

Yeah, but Lee has been moved around in this lineup more than anyone. Furthermore, Thomas I think will suffer from the same thing. Maggs is behind him but he only hits .260. I'm glad he's moving that up, but I think compared to other guys, Thomas for MVP is a joke, as MRKARNO says.

Gumshoe

ps- what does "fastball hitter" have to do with it? He has crushed many breaking balls for doubles and homers this year, as well.

MRKARNO
09-14-2003, 06:43 PM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
Yeah, but Lee has been moved around in this lineup more than anyone. Furthermore, Thomas I think will suffer from the same thing. Maggs is behind him but he only hits .260. I'm glad he's moving that up, but I think compared to other guys, Thomas for MVP is a joke, as MRKARNO says.

Gumshoe

ps- what does "fastball hitter" have to do with it? He has crushed many breaking balls for doubles and homers this year, as well.

Thomas had that one great stretch when we were at home against the angels and the rangers and just because of that week, he's being considered for MVP. I dont agree with that at all. Thomas hasnt come through in enough clutch situations and he's been in many this year. Only one stat would get him considered and that's the HR stat, but I think Lee is the most deserving candidate despite the fact that no one stat stands out

longwood
09-14-2003, 06:50 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Well if september performances are the most important issue and the sox make the playoffs then I think he needs just as much consideration as Maggs. Frank for MVP is a joke IMHO.


Carlos definitely should be considered, but if you look at the last 30 days, Maggs is still beating him in average (.352 vs. .336), Slugging, (.590 vs .566) and OBP (.400 vs .377). Carlos does have 6 more RBIs 1 more Home run.

In the last week, Carlos is leading in mostly all categories so if he continues to stay hot, he should get a fair chance at MVP. Maggs continues to quitely produce however as he went 3-4 today.

Deadguy
09-14-2003, 06:59 PM
Carlos doesn't walk enough to deserve to be considered. If he got on base more and didn't create so many outs, he'd deserve some consideration. Runs Created/27 Outs is probably the best stat for determining offensive value, and he isn't even close to Thomas or Ordonez in that.

jeremyb1
09-14-2003, 07:21 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Any fastball hitter getting to bat directly in front of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez ought to have an asterisks next to their offensive stats.

Valentin ate up the American League given the same role in '00.

I like Carlos but if could make any move after the season, it'd probably be to trade him. Unless market factors complete erode his trade value, threads such as this one demonstrate the extent to which he's become overrated. His lack of plate discipline and the extent to which he's benefitted from hitting second have definitely inflated his value too greatly. Also, some seem to feel he's young and just on the cusp of greatness but he's not particularly young and if you ask me this could be a career year as opposed to steady improvement. Jeremy Reed can likely come in and add key on base skills to the top of the lineup next season so we wouldn't miss that much if Carlos departed and the money we'd free up would help elsewhere.

OEO Magglio
09-14-2003, 07:23 PM
Carlos has been great this year there is no arguing that, the only problem I still have with him is he swings for the fences to much in the wrong situations, he seems to strikeout a ton if there is a runner on 3rd and less then 2 outs.

PaleHoseGeorge
09-14-2003, 07:28 PM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
Yeah, but Lee has been moved around in this lineup more than anyone. Furthermore, Thomas I think will suffer from the same thing. Maggs is behind him but he only hits .260. I'm glad he's moving that up, but I think compared to other guys, Thomas for MVP is a joke, as MRKARNO says.

Gumshoe

ps- what does "fastball hitter" have to do with it? He has crushed many breaking balls for doubles and homers this year, as well.

Thomas is drawing lots of walks specifically because opposing managers prefer facing Maggs in game situations to Frank. If the voters for Sox MVP were the opposing managers, Frank would be a walkaway winner.

And it's not that Lee gets more fastballs--though he does--batting #2 for the Sox. It's that he gets more pitches to hit than anybody else in the lineup. Nobody wants Lee on base with Thomas and Ordonez coming up.

Deadguy
09-14-2003, 08:05 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
I like Carlos but if could make any move after the season, it'd probably be to trade him. Unless market factors complete erode his trade value, threads such as this one demonstrate the extent to which he's become overrated. His lack of plate discipline and the extent to which he's benefitted from hitting second have definitely inflated his value too greatly. Also, some seem to feel he's young and just on the cusp of greatness but he's not particularly young and if you ask me this could be a career year as opposed to steady improvement. Jeremy Reed can likely come in and add key on base skills to the top of the lineup next season so we wouldn't miss that much if Carlos departed and the money we'd free up would help elsewhere.

I'd personally rather see Konerko traded, and Carlos moved to 1B/DH. Carlos may be a bit overrated, but at least we can count on him to produce with some consistency. Konerko, on the otherhand, seems to pull a disappearing act at least one month a season, and hit .150 with almost no production. We don't need to waste 17 million over the next two seasons on a guy whose just along for the ride.

hose
09-14-2003, 09:21 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Thomas is drawing lots of walks specifically because opposing managers prefer facing Maggs in game situations to Frank. If the voters for Sox MVP were the opposing managers, Frank would be a walkaway winner.

And it's not that Lee gets more fastballs--though he does--batting #2 for the Sox. It's that he gets more pitches to hit than anybody else in the lineup. Nobody wants Lee on base with Thomas and Ordonez coming up.



ding,ding ding give the man a prize.

Thomas was intentionally walked twice last week .

jeremyb1
09-14-2003, 10:06 PM
Originally posted by Deadguy
I'd personally rather see Konerko traded, and Carlos moved to 1B/DH. Carlos may be a bit overrated, but at least we can count on him to produce with some consistency. Konerko, on the otherhand, seems to pull a disappearing act at least one month a season, and hit .150 with almost no production. We don't need to waste 17 million over the next two seasons on a guy whose just along for the ride.

I'd rather have Carlos on the team over Paully but I'd rather trade Carlos because his value is much, much higher than Paully. I doubt we could trade Konerko even if we wanted to.

WinningUgly!
09-14-2003, 10:30 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Any fastball hitter getting to bat directly in front of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez ought to have an asterisks next to their offensive stats.

Valentin ate up the American League given the same role in '00.

Even Mike Caruso managed a .300 season hitting in the 2-spot!

Soxboyrob
09-14-2003, 10:46 PM
Lee ain't even close to deserving it over Frank or Maggs. He get on base nowhere near enough to be the team MVP, much less the league MVP. Basically, in the process of amassing his stats, he creates far too many outs. He also has an OPS of over 100 pts less than Magglio or Frank.

Lee has 572 at bats and reached base 204 times.
Frank has only 504 at bats and reached base 226 times.
Magglio has 556 at bats and reached base 234 times.

Why the discrepancy in at bats? Because when Frank is walking and getting on base, Maggs and Lee are putting the ball in play and reaching base only 30% of the time. Someone might look at Lee's RBI's as a reason to consider him over Frank for the MVP, but it's taken Lee 68 more at bats to do so and Lee's made 32 more outs than Frank. If Carlos learns the strike zone, which he temporarily did in the second half of last season, he's going to be a superstar.

daveeym
09-15-2003, 11:10 AM
What a bunch of Democrats here. For 120 of the last 130 years of baseball a hitter was judged on his rbi's, runs and average. Over the last 10-15 years new stats have been created so there is always some way to make a case to fit your own personal perspective. The last time I checked OPS, OBA etc. didn't win ballgames but outscoring your oppenant does. Lee leads the team in runs scored and rbi's and has done it in the clutch much more often than maggs or thomas. Thus, Lee would be my MVP. 13 games to go, maggs and thomas could jump back into the frontrunner position over these games but there are way too many of you playa hating on C. Lee.

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 11:22 AM
Originally posted by daveeym
What a bunch of Democrats here. For 120 of the last 130 years of baseball a hitter was judged on his rbi's, runs and average. Over the last 10-15 years new stats have been created so there is always some way to make a case to fit your own personal perspective. The last time I checked OPS, OBA etc. didn't win ballgames but outscoring your oppenant does. Lee leads the team in runs scored and rbi's and has done it in the clutch much more often than maggs or thomas. Thus, Lee would be my MVP. 13 games to go, maggs and thomas could jump back into the frontrunner position over these games but there are way too many of you playa hating on C. Lee.

last time I check ops, obp, slug, rc, eqa are more reflective on a players ability to create runs then RBI or runs scored. Like the GOP stuck in the muddy waters of outdated thinking, you're forgetting for Lee to score on other then his HRs, he needs someone to drive him in. Hitters batting before Frank and Mags in the Sox lineup should lead the team in runs scored every year.

JRIG
09-15-2003, 11:27 AM
Originally posted by daveeym
What a bunch of Democrats here. For 120 of the last 130 years of baseball a hitter was judged on his rbi's, runs and average. Over the last 10-15 years new stats have been created so there is always some way to make a case to fit your own personal perspective. The last time I checked OPS, OBA etc. didn't win ballgames but outscoring your oppenant does. Lee leads the team in runs scored and rbi's and has done it in the clutch much more often than maggs or thomas. Thus, Lee would be my MVP. 13 games to go, maggs and thomas could jump back into the frontrunner position over these games but there are way too many of you playa hating on C. Lee.

I wish everything were just like it was 130 years ago.

daveeym
09-15-2003, 11:32 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
last time I check ops, obp, slug, rc, eqa are more reflective on a players ability to create runs then RBI or runs scored. Like the GOP stuck in the muddy waters of outdated thinking, you're forgetting for Lee to score on other then his HRs, he needs someone to drive him in. Hitters batting before Frank and Mags in the Sox lineup should lead the team in runs scored every year.

And once again a democrat type argument that singles out part of the argument and twists it in their favor. Let's see, creating mythical runs based on these stats or looking at the reality of RUNS ACTUALLY SCORED AND DRIVEN IN. Lee leads the team in both categories. You argue that he leads the team in runs scored because he's hitting in front of Frank and Maggs. Then how do you explain leading the team in RBI's. Oh wait he hit behind Maggs and Frank for most of the season so it's due to their skills...come on you can't have it both ways, in tangible numbers Lee's the MVP.

daveeym
09-15-2003, 11:35 AM
Originally posted by JRIG
I wish everything were just like it was 130 years ago.

The last time I checked a baseball game 130 years ago was still played by the same rules and whichever team scored the most runs won.

daveeym
09-15-2003, 11:42 AM
Oh and another long time stat used by coaches to determine the worth of their players, which is never used by fantasy stat obsessed fans, is average with runners in scoring position which definitely is more indicative of clutch hitting.

C. LEE 2nd in the league at .353
Maggs 19th at .313
Thomas 57th at .261

maurice
09-15-2003, 12:21 PM
Originally posted by daveeym
What a bunch of Democrats here . . . .

Originally posted by daveeym
And once again a democrat type . . . .

:?:

Here's a "republican type" argument for you: Valentin should be MVP, because he has 200 RBI! Politics -- > Parking Lot.

As for the actual subject of this thread . . . IMHO CLee and Frank are the two most deserving non-pitchers. Maggs' production has been disappointing for a cleanup hitter batting behind CLee and Frank.

shane
09-15-2003, 12:25 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
Thomas had that one great stretch when we were at home against the angels and the rangers and just because of that week, he's being considered for MVP. I dont agree with that at all. Thomas hasnt come through in enough clutch situations and he's been in many this year. Only one stat would get him considered and that's the HR stat, but I think Lee is the most deserving candidate despite the fact that no one stat stands out

I think Thomas had a lot to do with the mid-season turnaround of the team, and for that he get's my vote. I would definitely put Carlos over Magglio though. He's had some amazing defense this year, and I think that's going to put him ahead of Maggs. It's really close on all three.

doublem23
09-15-2003, 12:26 PM
I think the bigger question than 'Lee for MVP?' is if the Sox sign him to a nice, fat deal this off-season, is he going to pull a Konerko?

hold2dibber
09-15-2003, 12:35 PM
Originally posted by daveeym
And once again a democrat type argument that singles out part of the argument and twists it in their favor. Let's see, creating mythical runs based on these stats or looking at the reality of RUNS ACTUALLY SCORED AND DRIVEN IN. Lee leads the team in both categories. You argue that he leads the team in runs scored because he's hitting in front of Frank and Maggs. Then how do you explain leading the team in RBI's. Oh wait he hit behind Maggs and Frank for most of the season so it's due to their skills...come on you can't have it both ways, in tangible numbers Lee's the MVP.

But wouldn't you agree that runs scored and RBIs are determined, to a significant extent, by other players (i.e., the guys you drive in and the guys driving you in)? Also, Carlos has 8 more RBIs than Frank, but has had WAY more at bats to do so.

I think one can make a case for CLee as the Sox' MVP, but you're not doing it.

voodoochile
09-15-2003, 12:38 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
But wouldn't you agree that runs scored and RBIs are determined, to a significant extent, by other players (i.e., the guys you drive in and the guys driving you in)? Also, Carlos has 8 more RBIs than Frank, but has had WAY more at bats to do so.

I think one can make a case for CLee as the Sox' MVP, but you're not doing it.

I agree with that too. In fact most flubbie fans I know are surprised when I mention Frank, Maggs and ELo but don't bring up Carlos right away.

Carlos has been coming up huge this last week and if that continues he may well be the man to beat by the end of the month. These next two weeks are going to go a LONG way toward determining the team MVP. Personally, I think the way Frank lifted the team up offensively in early June to give them a chance to be where they are today. is as important or more so, but then again, I'm biased...

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 12:41 PM
Originally posted by daveeym
Oh and another long time stat used by coaches to determine the worth of their players, which is never used by fantasy stat obsessed fans, is average with runners in scoring position which definitely is more indicative of clutch hitting.

C. LEE 2nd in the league at .353
Maggs 19th at .313
Thomas 57th at .261

First off there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. Compare stats from year to year and you'll see a hitters avg with runner in scoring postion greatly vary from year to year. What happens this year doesn't say a thing about what will happen next year or the year before. Also you can define clutch as comeing through when it after the 7th and the lead is within three runs. Lee produces at .235/.253/.376 rate while Frank comes in at .310/.420/.676.

Secondly, Lee is tied for the most games batting second with 50 and leads in AB with 217. This is third of his total ABs but about half of his runs come when he is batting number two. Good old GOPers, never bother to check the facts when it suits their blabbering hot air. (yes the other side does it too). Lee has 190 AB at number 5, with a .338 OPB, .453 SLG for 30 RBIs and 24 runs. At number 6, he has 146 ABs for a .308 OBP and .500 SLG for 23 runs and 25 rbis. Lee batting second has gotten on at .356 clip with .571 slugging scoring 42 times and driving in 44.
The increase in runs scored can not just be attributed to Lee increased production batting second but shows clear help from Frank and Mags.

Baseball was hijacked back at a start by a Christian fundamentalist NYC journalist who so strongly believed in good vs evil every action was either good or evil. Before him walks were consider hits, while he proclaimed from righteous perch that walks were the fault of the pitcher thus evil. That is why hitters who can draw walks are given less credit then they should receive. Fundamentalism screwed up the nation pastime as much as it screwing up the nation now. (Hey if anyone has moneyball around can you look up the name)

Besides the weight of the walk, the rules have changed though out the years. Doctoring of baseballs was legal 75 years ago, now it is not to name one.

PaleHoseGeorge
09-15-2003, 12:44 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
....Personally, I think the way Frank lifted the team up offensively in early June to give them a chance to be where they are today. is as important or more so, but then again, I'm biased...

You're biased? What about the manager? Frank hasn't played first base since Manuel decided his hot streak last June was apparently some sort of crazy coincidence--five years of empirical evidence be damned.

:jerry
"I can't imagine anything short of an emergency for playing Frank at first base."

He really knows how to get the most out of his players, doesn't he?

Gumshoe
09-15-2003, 01:34 PM
Guys, it is hard to argue against the runs scored and RBI argument set forth by the politically charged poster, Daveeym.

Also, can you guys be any more blatantly with the new wave of statisticians led by Neyer, James, et al?

I love those guys, don't get me wrong, but just allow them to change your thinking (not entirely), or challenge general knowledge, don't blindly follow them.

Clutch hitting exists. Why did one of the greatest hitters of all time have no good world series? It was the world series. AT very worst, there is credit to be given to clutch hitting, even if non-clutch hitting is a victim of random stats. SOMETHING has to be said for clutch hitting.

You've experienced it, I'm sure. Certain guys are not as effective under pressure, period. It's not all that unbelievable.

Gumshoe

Iwritecode
09-15-2003, 01:35 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
You're biased? What about the manager? Frank hasn't played first base since Manuel decided his hot streak last June was apparently some sort of crazy coincidence--five years of empirical evidence be damned.

:jerry
"I can't imagine anything short of an emergency for playing Frank at first base."

He really knows how to get the most out of his players, doesn't he?

C'mon PHG, there's a difference between being (totally) biased and being a ****ing idiot...

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 02:12 PM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
Guys, it is hard to argue against the runs scored and RBI argument set forth by the politically charged poster, Daveeym.

Also, can you guys be any more blatantly with the new wave of statisticians led by Neyer, James, et al?
Gumshoe

It is very easy to argue against his argument since counting stats while we are trained to use them to evaluate player, have no effect on the causation of runs. If the player who scored the most runs was your MVP, leadoff hitters would win it all the time. The cause for Carlos scoring a high number of runs is he is getting on base at a .350 clip in the 2 slot. So that is 35 out of 100 times at the plate. If Frank and Mags knock him in a 1/3 of the time when Lee doesn't hit a HR, project over over 300 PA and you would get about 33 runs. When you add in his HR and number of times Konerko or later drives in Lee, you'll find it comes to close to his actual runs scored. If Frank and Mags drove him in at a .50 rate, Lee would have about 60 runs and a 10% rate Lee would score about 17 runs. Thus the amount of times Lee and any hitter scores is completely dependent on production of the hitters following him. When it comes to RBIs apply this logic in reverse, instead of Lee getting on base, it depends on the people in front of him.

daveeym
09-15-2003, 02:12 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
But wouldn't you agree that runs scored and RBIs are determined, to a significant extent, by other players (i.e., the guys you drive in and the guys driving you in)? Also, Carlos has 8 more RBIs than Frank, but has had WAY more at bats to do so.

I think one can make a case for CLee as the Sox' MVP, but you're not doing it.

Let's look at that as plate appearances instead of at bats with runners in scoring position.

Lee 139 at bats 10 walks.
Thomas 115 at bats 30 walks.

Lee 149 - Thomas 145

Not much difference there

I couldn't find sac's broken down with runners in scoring position but i'd imagine there wouldn't be a significant difference between the two of them there.

Yeah a walks still good but i'd rather have someone knocking them in.

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 02:14 PM
Originally posted by daveeym
Let's look at that as plate appearances instead of at bats with runners in scoring position.

Lee 139 at bats 10 walks.
Thomas 115 at bats 30 walks.

Lee 149 - Thomas 145

Not much difference there

I couldn't find sac's broken down with runners in scoring position but i'd imagine there wouldn't be a significant difference between the two of them there.

Yeah a walks still good but i'd rather have someone knocking them in.

You don't knock them by swinging at bad pitches, you hit into DPs.

daveeym
09-15-2003, 02:20 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
It is very easy to argue against his argument since counting stats while we are trained to use them to evaluate player, have no effect on the causation of runs. If the player who scored the most runs was your MVP, leadoff hitters would win it all the time.

If you'll look through the thread nobody is basing C. Lee's MVP status on runs scored only, that's just what you're harping against. Rbi's, clutch hitting and above average defense this year has all been given as reasons for him. I guess all of us making the case for Lee are just blind. All his runs scored are due to frank and maggs and all his RBI's are because of Frank and maggs. I guess my grandma would be leading the sox in runs scored and rbi's if she was hittting second because they are setting the ball on a tee for carlos out of fear of the great Maggs and Frank.

Sure Maggs and Frank hitting behind or in front or for Lee (whichever you prefer) helps Lee but why don't you give the guy credit where credits due.

daveeym
09-15-2003, 02:28 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
You don't knock them by swinging at bad pitches, you hit into DPs.

He's hit into all of 4 more double plays than thomas with runners in scoring position.

Stats with runners in scoring position

Player Team AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K HBP SB CS GDP OBP SLG OPS
Lee, Carlos CWS .353 117 139 65 49 7 0 13 77 10 18 1 3 0 7 .387 .683 1.071
Ordonez, Magglio CWS .313 118 150 59 47 14 2 5 60 15 16 4 1 1 7 .384 .533 .917
Thomas, Frank CWS .261 112 115 41 30 7 0 8 46 30 27 6 0 0 3 .426 .530 .956

Gumshoe
09-15-2003, 03:17 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
It is very easy to argue against his argument since counting stats while we are trained to use them to evaluate player, have no effect on the causation of runs. If the player who scored the most runs was your MVP, leadoff hitters would win it all the time. The cause for Carlos scoring a high number of runs is he is getting on base at a .350 clip in the 2 slot. So that is 35 out of 100 times at the plate. If Frank and Mags knock him in a 1/3 of the time when Lee doesn't hit a HR, project over over 300 PA and you would get about 33 runs. When you add in his HR and number of times Konerko or later drives in Lee, you'll find it comes to close to his actual runs scored. If Frank and Mags drove him in at a .50 rate, Lee would have about 60 runs and a 10% rate Lee would score about 17 runs. Thus the amount of times Lee and any hitter scores is completely dependent on production of the hitters following him. When it comes to RBIs apply this logic in reverse, instead of Lee getting on base, it depends on the people in front of him.

But THE FACT IS, Lee has been doing BOTH things, scoring and driving in RUNS! That is all daveey and I are saying! Sure, he scores because the others drive him in, but that's his purpose, to get on SO they drive him in. Accordingly, he's driving in OTHER guys, and doing it often. I don't know. what daveey is saying is VERY convincing, combining clutch hitting and other stats, esp. when I watch the games and all it seems like is that C. Lee is helping our team unlike any other guy with his hustle, stolen bases, D, and determination. Guys like Lee and Valentin are the ones that stat guys overlook but really create WINS based on attitude and production in tight spots. My thoughts,


Gumshoe

RKMeibalane
09-15-2003, 03:38 PM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
You're biased? What about the manager? Frank hasn't played first base since Manuel decided his hot streak last June was apparently some sort of crazy coincidence--five years of empirical evidence be damned.

:jerry
"I can't imagine anything short of an emergency for playing Frank at first base."

He really knows how to get the most out of his players, doesn't he?

I agree. It would be interesting to see what Frank's batting average would look like if he played for a manager who had a brain.

:jerry

"Urbinedum zeep gerzoid."

jeremyb1
09-15-2003, 04:28 PM
Originally posted by daveeym
What a bunch of Democrats here. For 120 of the last 130 years of baseball a hitter was judged on his rbi's, runs and average. Over the last 10-15 years new stats have been created so there is always some way to make a case to fit your own personal perspective. The last time I checked OPS, OBA etc. didn't win ballgames but outscoring your oppenant does.

Last time I checked there was a direct correlation between those statistics and runs scored.

PaleHoseGeorge
09-15-2003, 04:38 PM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
Last time I checked there was a direct correlation between those statistics and runs scored.

Forget, jeremy. He's on a roll. :smile:

:bluesbros
"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! ..."

MarkEdward
09-15-2003, 04:44 PM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
Clutch hitting exists. Why did one of the greatest hitters of all time have no good world series? It was the world series.


Please tell me you're not referring to Barry Bonds, because I find a .471/.700/1.294 World Series line pretty damn good.

voodoochile
09-15-2003, 04:46 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
Please tell me you're not referring to Barry Bonds, because I find a .471/.700/1.294 World Series line pretty damn good.

Yeah, and that Ruth guy had some pretty good games too...

Deadguy
09-15-2003, 05:35 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Yeah, and that Ruth guy had some pretty good games too...

He might mean Ted Williams, who went 5 for 25 with 1 RBI and 0 EXBHs, in the 1946 World Series.

I remember seeing an interview in which Ted said he hurt his left shoulder in late September of that year, which is why he struggled in that WS.

Regardless, 30 PAs is such a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, that it is hard to say whether he "choked" or not. Every player has stretches where they struggle or where they excel. A .350 hitter doesn't hit .350 every month of the season.

hold2dibber
09-15-2003, 05:41 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
First off there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. Compare stats from year to year and you'll see a hitters avg with runner in scoring postion greatly vary from year to year. What happens this year doesn't say a thing about what will happen next year or the year before.

While I completely agree with your analysis, I don't think that it means we should disregard someones "clutch" stats when determining individual awards. Sure, if CLee hits .375 with a 1.00 OPS in "clutch" situations this year, that doesn't mean he's a great clutch hitter or that he'll hit .375 in "clutch" situations this year. But it does mean that he was awesome in "clutch" situations this year. And while it may be a fluke, I think you can and should take those stats into consideration when assessing his performance THIS YEAR for any individual awards based upon this year's performance.

Gumshoe
09-15-2003, 06:41 PM
He might mean Ted Williams, who went 5 for 25 with 1 RBI and 0 EXBHs, in the 1946 World Series.

yeah ... sorry, I did mean Williams. TW was a prideful man, I'm sure he had an excuse for his sorry performances.

Gumshoe

Gumshoe
09-15-2003, 06:44 PM
Originally posted by hold2dibber
While I completely agree with your analysis, I don't think that it means we should disregard someones "clutch" stats when determining individual awards. Sure, if CLee hits .375 with a 1.00 OPS in "clutch" situations this year, that doesn't mean he's a great clutch hitter or that he'll hit .375 in "clutch" situations this year. But it does mean that he was awesome in "clutch" situations this year. And while it may be a fluke, I think you can and should take those stats into consideration when assessing his performance THIS YEAR for any individual awards based upon this year's performance.


Thanks, Dib. This is why I mention Lee. MVP is for THIS season baby. just deal in results, my friend, and Lee has them

Gumshoe

Dadawg_77
09-15-2003, 07:55 PM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
But THE FACT IS, Lee has been doing BOTH things, scoring and driving in RUNS! That is all daveey and I are saying! Sure, he scores because the others drive him in, but that's his purpose, to get on SO they drive him in. Accordingly, he's driving in OTHER guys, and doing it often. I don't know. what daveey is saying is VERY convincing, combining clutch hitting and other stats, esp. when I watch the games and all it seems like is that C. Lee is helping our team unlike any other guy with his hustle, stolen bases, D, and determination. Guys like Lee and Valentin are the ones that stat guys overlook but really create WINS based on attitude and production in tight spots. My thoughts,


Gumshoe

What daveey is saying isn't convincing at all. The numbers he is using are not indicative of everything there is. Also I think he is providing the wrong interpretation of the numbers he is using. Lee is soiled player but not the MVP of this team. Yes he leads the team in runs scored but that is because of his place in the lineup give him a greater chance to score when he gets on base. The RSIP number show Lee has nice pop but why? Maybe pitchers, teams don't want to face Thomas, with a .426 OBP with RISP. Thomas also has way better numbers when the game is close and late, which is more clutch IHOP.

Take a measure like RC/27 which takes into account everything and anything you can do while batting. The formula, Runs created
[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF), Frank is 16th in the MLB at 7.64 runs per 27 outs, Lee is 72 with 5.90 runs per 27. So a lineup of 9 Franks outscores a lineup of 9 Lees by about 2 runs a game. That is results.

Daver
09-15-2003, 08:23 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
What daveey is saying isn't convincing at all. The numbers he is using are not indicative of everything there is. Also I think he is providing the wrong interpretation of the numbers he is using. Lee is soiled player but not the MVP of this team. Yes he leads the team in runs scored but that is because of his place in the lineup give him a greater chance to score when he gets on base. The RSIP number show Lee has nice pop but why? Maybe pitchers, teams don't want to face Thomas, with a .426 OBP with RISP. Thomas also has way better numbers when the game is close and late, which is more clutch IHOP.

Take a measure like RC/27 which takes into account everything and anything you can do while batting. The formula, Runs created
[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF), Frank is 16th in the MLB at 7.64 runs per 27 outs, Lee is 72 with 5.90 runs per 27. So a lineup of 9 Franks outscores a lineup of 9 Lees by about 2 runs a game. That is results.

I could spare you all the math,you could do it the same way the people that actually vote for the MVP do it,poll the managers and get the list of guys they will NOT allow their pitchers to pitch to when a scoring opportunity is available.This year for the Sox that guy would be Frank,how many times has he been walked so that the opposing pitcher could pitch to Magglio?

Gumshoe
09-15-2003, 09:22 PM
Check out my new post about Frank

Gumshoe

daveeym
09-16-2003, 07:32 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
What daveey is saying isn't convincing at all. The numbers he is using are not indicative of everything there is. Also I think he is providing the wrong interpretation of the numbers he is using. Lee is soiled player but not the MVP of this team. Yes he leads the team in runs scored but that is because of his place in the lineup give him a greater chance to score when he gets on base. The RSIP number show Lee has nice pop but why? Maybe pitchers, teams don't want to face Thomas, with a .426 OBP with RISP. Thomas also has way better numbers when the game is close and late, which is more clutch IHOP.

Take a measure like RC/27 which takes into account everything and anything you can do while batting. The formula, Runs created
[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF), Frank is 16th in the MLB at 7.64 runs per 27 outs, Lee is 72 with 5.90 runs per 27. So a lineup of 9 Franks outscores a lineup of 9 Lees by about 2 runs a game. That is results.

That is also insane - you don't have a lineup of 9 franks - that actually runs that have crossed the plate due to Carlos Lee is more than Frank. You're theoritical stats that have no basis in reality other than to provide statiticians something to do don't mean squat. Lee's scored more and driven in more. And get off the dead horse about where he's been in the lineup. If you take credit for him because he's scoring in front of maggs and frank you have to give credit to him since he's driving in more runs than both of them while hitting out of the 2 spot.