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View Full Version : The Great Debate: Loaiza or Koch


Procol Harum
09-12-2003, 03:18 PM
The fact that Billy Koch actually pitched decently in yesterday's debacle vs. the Twins raises a great question for debate--do you think the Sox would be in a worse, same, or a better position at this particular point of the season (with a possibility of making the playoffs) if Loaiza had his usual 11 wins and Billy Koch had panned out with a 2.00 era and 40 saves? Have at it, friends--and no, you can't have both (obviously, as we so painfully know).

doublem23
09-12-2003, 03:22 PM
Marte and Gordon have filled in admirably for Koch, who would have filled Esteban's shoes?

The REAL question is, would we have already clinched the thing if Williams had kept Keith Foulke? And yes, I know that horse is dead. :D:

voodoochile
09-12-2003, 03:22 PM
No question that Loaiza and his extra 10 wins are going to be much more valuable than Koch having 40 saves. It isn't like the Sox have blown a bunch of 9th inning leads this year, but 10 less wins from Loaiza woule be 10 less wins in the standings and that would mean 8 games out of first at present.

gosox41
09-12-2003, 03:23 PM
IMHO, you're better off with Loiaza having the career year because he's a starting pitcher. I'd rather have a guy throw 200+ innings with a 2.6 ERA then a guy throwing only 70 innings. Wins/Saves are not the best indicator as if Loizaz had more run support early, he'd have at least 3-4 more wins.

Bob

gosox41
09-12-2003, 03:24 PM
Originally posted by doublem23


The REAL question is, would we have already clinched the thing if Williams had kept Keith Foulke? And yes, I know that horse is dead. :D:

No it's not. Koch is still an active memeber of the team. The horse is still witherhing around in pain waiting to be taken out of its misery. :D:

Bob

Procol Harum
09-12-2003, 03:25 PM
Note that I did hypothetically give Loaiza his career-high 11 wins this year (which would entail some inning-eating as well), so it's not like an all or nothing proposition.

freddyvsjason
09-12-2003, 03:25 PM
E-LO all the way on this one.

FJA
09-12-2003, 03:43 PM
Originally posted by Procol Harum
The fact that Billy Koch actually pitched decently in yesterday's debacle vs. the Twins raises a great question for debate--do you think the Sox would be in a worse, same, or a better position at this particular point of the season (with a possibility of making the playoffs) if Loaiza had his usual 11 wins and Billy Koch had panned out with a 2.00 era and 40 saves? Have at it, friends--and no, you can't have both (obviously, as we so painfully know).

My first instinct was Loaiza, but it's an interesting question. How many games has Koch blown for us? How many games have we kept a pitcher out there too long so we wouldn't have to put in Koch?

I'm still going with Loaiza, but it's a lot closer than I first thought.

Procol Harum
09-12-2003, 03:48 PM
Consider also the psychological advantage for a team's batters and defenders in having a first-rate closer in the pen. Also remember what effect this might have on an incorrigible tinkerer.

:jerry

"..Uh!....must....tinker....rest Koch.....use.....White...."

JRIG
09-12-2003, 04:36 PM
This one isn't even close. In general, a pretty good starting pitcher is far more valuable than a great closer. Having the best pitcher in the AL on your staff rather than a pretty good closer is a no-brainer.

The Sox wouldn't be close to where they are right now if Loaiza was having his usual season, even if Koch was having a career year. Loaiza eating up over 220 innings (probably) is so much more valuable than Koch's usual 70 or 80 innings of relief work.

sox_fan_forever
09-13-2003, 12:44 AM
I definitely have to go with Loaiza having a career year. Have you seen the records for the other starting pitchers? I know that some of those losses, especially some of Buehrle's losses, were because the offense didn't show up, but still the records are all average. Basically everyone else is .500. I think we all appreciate what Loaiza has done for this team this year, but it scares me to think about how bad it could have been if not for him.

StepsInSC
09-13-2003, 01:19 AM
Every part of me says Loaiza...I mean cmon a 20 game winner has got to be more valuable than any closer right?

Despite the fact that we have 17 blown saves collectively...

shane
09-13-2003, 01:28 AM
It's actually about even. The team has 34 saves, so if Koch had 40, that would mean that there were six more times with his 40 that other pitchers got us to the ninth in a position to pick up the save. That being said, E-lo has a 2 game advantage(8 more wins - 6 more saves, provided Koch is the only pitcher with saves). However, if we had a couple of other pitchers with 4 or 5 saves each, we might be in a better position with Koch's saves.

Dadawg_77
09-13-2003, 01:33 AM
I would rather the Sox had E Lo's seasons then Gange's. i think that answers the question, but you gave Koch a very good career year in the hypothetical stats given, off the top of my head I can't remeber a season where Koch has ERA below 3.25 let alone in the low 2s.

Dadawg_77
09-13-2003, 01:36 AM
Here is another question, Konerko having a carreer year, .325/.389/.560 and Flix Herdia or E Lo and Paul's real production of 2003.

StillMissOzzie
09-13-2003, 03:09 AM
I'll take Esteban's career year over a Koch career year any day.

Loaiza's best year had been 11 wins, and let's say he makes 20 this year. Based on the dazzling record of the 5th starters this year, I'd have to say that the Sox would not have won too many more over the 11. I think Koch got 5 losses, and I'm not sure how many blown saves. There may be some double-counting here, too - how many blown saves did in fact become a loss, and how many (if ANY) did the Sox win in spite of Koch getting saddled with a blown save?

And, let's add the intangibles. Loaiza got the national media spotlight by starting the All-Star game in his home town. Many have mentioned feeling slighted by the local and national media, so this had to help.

:gulp:

voodoochile
09-13-2003, 08:57 AM
Originally posted by StepsInSC
Every part of me says Loaiza...I mean cmon a 20 game winner has got to be more valuable than any closer right?

Despite the fact that we have 17 blown saves collectively...

Don't swallow that crap. Yes, the Sox have had a bullpen pitcher surrender the lead 17 times this season, but how many of them were actually save situations (9th inning, up by 3-runs or less).

The save was a crappy stat to begin with, but the blown save is even worse.