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soxtalker
08-25-2003, 09:26 AM
Gammons had an article dated Aug 24 in which he does a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the dollars that free agents can expect.

sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1601990&partnersite=espn (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1601990&partnersite=espn)

He has several different categories, and he mentions Sox players in these.

Bartolo Colon is in the "cream of the free-agent market"
He refers to Carlos Lee as a (significant) "non-tender"
Scott Sullivan and Jose Valentine show up as "major players whose options likely won't be exercised".

Can someone explain what each of these categories mean, and, if Gammons is correct, what the implications are for the Sox.

dickallen15
08-25-2003, 09:37 AM
Bartolo may indeed be the cream of the crop. The Yankees supposedly are very interested and would probably give him a boat load of money. Lee is a KW favorite, and is really playing well, I don't see any way the Sox non-tender him. As for Sullivan, I think it all depends on how the rest of the year plays out. His contract is pretty significant for a middle reliever, but the Sox have a lot of potential free agents, so its possible they exercise his option.

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 09:51 AM
Originally posted by dickallen15
Bartolo may indeed be the cream of the crop. The Yankees supposedly are very interested and would probably give him a boat load of money. Lee is a KW favorite, and is really playing well, I don't see any way the Sox non-tender him. As for Sullivan, I think it all depends on how the rest of the year plays out. His contract is pretty significant for a middle reliever, but the Sox have a lot of potential free agents, so its possible they exercise his option.

As I understand it, we need to offer arbitration to a player in order to get a draft choice. Of these categories, where is that applicable?

Does it mean that we have to offer arbitration to both Colon and Lee?

In the case of Sullivan, is arbitration even possible? It seems like our only choice is to either exercise the option or let him become a free agent. If the latter happens, do we get any compensation?

dickallen15
08-25-2003, 09:57 AM
I'm pretty sure the Sox will offer Colon arbitration. He may take it. Lee is arbitration eligible, so if the Sox didn't offer it he would become a free agent. That will not happen. Sullivan has a buy out of about $250,000 if I'm not mistaken. So if the Sox don't want to exercise his option, they pay the buyout and he becomes a free agent. Odds are that will happen, but you never know.

Dadawg_77
08-25-2003, 10:37 AM
It depends on how the Sox do this year. But if Kenny backed himself into a corner when he signed Koch and Konerko this off season. So it may come down to keeping Mags or Lee, in which case the Sox non tender Lee, and pay Mags. But that is a great topic to talk about come Nov 1 after we come down from our high from watching the Sox win the World Series.

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 10:58 AM
Originally posted by dickallen15
I'm pretty sure the Sox will offer Colon arbitration. He may take it. Lee is arbitration eligible, so if the Sox didn't offer it he would become a free agent. That will not happen. Sullivan has a buy out of about $250,000 if I'm not mistaken. So if the Sox don't want to exercise his option, they pay the buyout and he becomes a free agent. Odds are that will happen, but you never know.

Let me ask a follow-up, just for clarification.

If the Sox want a draft pick as compensation for some other team picking up Lee or Colon, they must offer arbitration. They, of course, take the risk that Lee or Colon will accept arbitration and whatever outcome results. Of course, the Sox can deal with the consequences of any such risk by trying to trade the player later.

With Sullivan, they do not have an opportunity for draft compensation. They simply have the choice of exercising his option or buying him out.

Dadawg_77
08-25-2003, 11:09 AM
Originally posted by soxtalker
Let me ask a follow-up, just for clarification.

If the Sox want a draft pick as compensation for some other team picking up Lee or Colon, they must offer arbitration. They, of course, take the risk that Lee or Colon will accept arbitration and whatever outcome results. Of course, the Sox can deal with the consequences of any such risk by trying to trade the player later.

With Sullivan, they do not have an opportunity for draft compensation. They simply have the choice of exercising his option or buying him out.

The Sox can not get a draft pick for Lee since he isn't a unrestrictive free agent. Colon is a UFA and if the Sox want to have a chance at a draft pick they must offer binding arbitration to Colon. If he doesn't like the Market conditions he will accept it, knowing he could only take a 20% pay cut at worse. This happen to the Braves this year with Maddox and caused them to trade Millwood. I am unsure on any trade restrictions on arbritration players.

MarkEdward
08-25-2003, 11:35 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
So it may come down to keeping Mags or Lee, in which case the Sox non tender Lee, and pay Mags.

If a decision must be made concerning either keeping Lee or Ordonez, I hope Kenny won't think twice about trading Lee. Carlos is having a very strong year, and he's been a great number two hitter, but his OBP is still hovering around .330. His high RBI total has mostly been generated by hitting behind high OBP machines like Jimenez, Thomas, Alomar, and Ordonez. Aside from this, Jeremy Reed is right on his tail. Lee's stock won't get much higher, and this off-season would be a great time to trade him.

I know this discussion should be held off until after the season, but I love talking about transaction-type moves.

schlomo
08-25-2003, 11:42 AM
That same article also says that Colon was put on the waiver wire and blocked. Wonder what Kenny was up to.

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 12:04 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
The Sox can not get a draft pick for Lee since he isn't a unrestrictive free agent. Colon is a UFA and if the Sox want to have a chance at a draft pick they must offer binding arbitration to Colon. If he doesn't like the Market conditions he will accept it, knowing he could only take a 20% pay cut at worse. This happen to the Braves this year with Maddox and caused them to trade Millwood. I am unsure on any trade restrictions on arbritration players.

OK, now I'm confused about Lee. If we don't offer him arbitration, he's a free agent. But he's not an unrestricted free agent. Does that mean that if we offer him arbitration, he has to accept it?

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 12:09 PM
Originally posted by schlomo
That same article also says that Colon was put on the waiver wire and blocked. Wonder what Kenny was up to.

This question came up on the board a few days ago. If I recall, the consensus was that KW was simply doing so in case we fell out of the race. How much time does it take for someone to pass through waivers? If it only takes a couple of days, this doesn't make much sense. If it takes a couple of weeks, it makes a lot of sense.

I suppose that he could also be simply fishing -- seeing what shows up. But I wonder what kind of trade would have been good enough to pull the trigger.

Lip Man 1
08-25-2003, 12:09 PM
If Gammons is accurate and Colon will be offered eight or nine million per year, the Sox can say "goodbye."

No way will Uncle Jerry allow that type of money to be spent on a pitcher. Unfortunately.

Lip

hold2dibber
08-25-2003, 12:11 PM
Originally posted by soxtalker
OK, now I'm confused about Lee. If we don't offer him arbitration, he's a free agent. But he's not an unrestricted free agent. Does that mean that if we offer him arbitration, he has to accept it?

I think the answer is yes.

RichH55
08-25-2003, 12:11 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
If a decision must be made concerning either keeping Lee or Ordonez, I hope Kenny won't think twice about trading Lee. Carlos is having a very strong year, and he's been a great number two hitter, but his OBP is still hovering around .330. His high RBI total has mostly been generated by hitting behind high OBP machines like Jimenez, Thomas, Alomar, and Ordonez. Aside from this, Jeremy Reed is right on his tail. Lee's stock won't get much higher, and this off-season would be a great time to trade him.

I know this discussion should be held off until after the season, but I love talking about transaction-type moves.


Carlos should peak at about a 30-35 HR guy with 100 RBI every year....not too shabby....all depends on what kind of deal they can work out for him....I definately don't want him playing on one year deals til he is a FA, so either 3 year deal or trade seems to be the option.

BTW....Jimenez OBP machine? I'll give you Thomas, but Jimenez and Alomar(For all 30 games he's played with us)? Thats pushing it.

It really all depends on what you can get for Lee, and how ready you think either Borchard or Reed are. Could be very interesting......If Hummel is the PTBNL to Cincy then we could very well need another IF as I don't think Willie Harris is anything more than a utility guy.

RichH55
08-25-2003, 12:12 PM
Does anyone know how much Sullivan will make next year if we pick up his option? Could be interesting....I'm thinking anything under 2 million and we keep him.

Also, does anyone know if we have an option on Flash?

Dadawg_77
08-25-2003, 12:15 PM
Originally posted by soxtalker
OK, now I'm confused about Lee. If we don't offer him arbitration, he's a free agent. But he's not an unrestricted free agent. Does that mean that if we offer him arbitration, he has to accept it?

Here is the deal, since Lee has less then six years MLB experience but more then three, the team can make Lee a tender offer if Lee rejects the offer, always do, then they go to arbitration. If the team doesn't make a tender offer then the player is FA and the team can't talk to him till May 1st.

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 12:22 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Here is the deal, since Lee has less then six years MLB experience but more then three, the team can make Lee a tender offer if Lee rejects the offer, always do, then they go to arbitration. If the team doesn't make a tender offer then the player is FA and the team can't talk to him till May 1st.

OK, makes sense. Then in arbitration, would the offer that the Sox had made to Lee become the least that Lee could receive?

jcw218
08-25-2003, 01:00 PM
Originally posted by soxtalker
OK, makes sense. Then in arbitration, would the offer that the Sox had made to Lee become the least that Lee could receive?


The least that Carlos could earn next year would be a 20% reduction from this years salary.

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 01:08 PM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
If a decision must be made concerning either keeping Lee or Ordonez, I hope Kenny won't think twice about trading Lee. Carlos is having a very strong year, and he's been a great number two hitter, but his OBP is still hovering around .330. His high RBI total has mostly been generated by hitting behind high OBP machines like Jimenez, Thomas, Alomar, and Ordonez. Aside from this, Jeremy Reed is right on his tail. Lee's stock won't get much higher, and this off-season would be a great time to trade him.

I know this discussion should be held off until after the season, but I love talking about transaction-type moves.

Probably isn't a bad discussion for an off day.

KW has been aggressive throughout his tenure, and he's accelerated his efforts lately (no doubt due to the pennant race). So, I'd expect him to be quite active in the off season, regardless of where we end up. No one stands still; witness the KC-Cleveland trade today. He's still going to have holes, players in the minors who need to come up, and a limited salary structure. Given that, I'd also suggest that Lee -- or others -- could be on the way out. Of course, it all depends on what others are willing to give.

MRKARNO
08-25-2003, 01:58 PM
I think that if we end up losing players like Lee and Bartolo, KW will go out and get FA replacements.

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 02:14 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
I think that if we end up losing players like Lee and Bartolo, KW will go out and get FA replacements.

I think that KW will do something. Whether JR's budget constraints allow FA signings is another matter. Or, alternately, the type of FA signings may be constrained by the budget.

MisterB
08-25-2003, 02:22 PM
Originally posted by MRKARNO
I think that if we end up losing players like Lee and Bartolo, KW will go out and get FA replacements.

I wouldn't bet the farm on that. Keep in mind that all of the deals he's made recently have cost us players instead of cash. There's no proof that JR will let him drop serious dough for free agents, especially with guys like Ordonez, Konerko and Koch getting salary increases next year. Even if we did replace Lee's production with a free agent, it would cost the Sox more than it would if we had kept Lee. (Players who aren't FA eligible yet are almost always 'underpaid' when compared to a FA player with similar production.)

dickallen15
08-25-2003, 02:56 PM
There is no way KW will non tender Lee. No way.

voodoochile
08-25-2003, 03:24 PM
Just find a way to move Konerko. If the flubbies can trade Hundley than anything is possible. Eat some other large contract and hope for the best. Maybe an overpaid older pitcher who could be a 4th starter next year.

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 03:30 PM
Originally posted by voodoochile
Just find a way to move Konerko. If the flubbies can trade Hundley than anything is possible. Eat some other large contract and hope for the best. Maybe an overpaid older pitcher who could be a 4th starter next year.

Maybe. It isn't at all clear that he has lost as much faith in Konerko as some of the fans.

Dadawg_77
08-25-2003, 03:51 PM
Originally posted by dickallen15
There is no way KW will non tender Lee. No way.

If Kenny can find a replacement player who can produce about the same at a cheaper price then do it. Sox missed that point this off season at first base. There were several players who actually out produced Konerko this season and cost a lot less off of the market.

maurice
08-25-2003, 04:03 PM
1. Based on his recent radio comments, KW has a very high opinion of CLee. I suspect that many other GMs agree. He won't be non-tendered.

2. Gammons article estimates that Tejada will get a deal around $9 million / year, but that Luis Castillo will get half that. Huh?!?

soxtalker
08-25-2003, 04:17 PM
Originally posted by maurice
1. Based on his recent radio comments, KW has a very high opinion of CLee. I suspect that many other GMs agree. He won't be non-tendered.



Agree, though it doesn't mean that KW won't turn around and trade him.

This is interesting. A couple of months ago, I thought that the off-season would be pretty dreary. Now, it looks like there really could be a good hot-stove discussion.

MarkEdward
08-25-2003, 05:03 PM
Originally posted by RichH55
[B]Carlos should peak at about a 30-35 HR guy with 100 RBI every year....not too shabby....all depends on what kind of deal they can work out for him....I definately don't want him playing on one year deals til he is a FA, so either 3 year deal or trade seems to be the option.

I had no intention of demeaning Lee. He can help out many clubs. However, Lee will get expensive and we have a perfectly acceptable replacemant in Jeremy Reed. So if I had to choose between Ordonez and Lee, I'm taking Mags.

BTW....Jimenez OBP machine? I'll give you Thomas, but Jimenez and Alomar(For all 30 games he's played with us)? Thats pushing it.

Well, you won't mistake Jimenez for Rickey Henderson, but he did have a .332 OBP while on the Sox. Since coming to the Sox, Alomar has a .342 OBP, also not too shabby.

It really all depends on what you can get for Lee, and how ready you think either Borchard or Reed are. Could be very interesting......If Hummel is the PTBNL to Cincy then we could very well need another IF as I don't think Willie Harris is anything more than a utility guy.

This would be my plan: Lee can either stay or go for the 2004 season. If he stays, keep him in left and put Borchard in center. If he goes, put Rowand in left and Borchard in center. Either way, I'd like to see Borchard get 500 ABs in the majors and Reed get a whole season in Charlotte.

Our middle infield for next year is a whole 'nother problem altogether...

soxtalker
08-26-2003, 12:11 AM
Originally posted by MarkEdward
This would be my plan: Lee can either stay or go for the 2004 season. If he stays, keep him in left and put Borchard in center. If he goes, put Rowand in left and Borchard in center. Either way, I'd like to see Borchard get 500 ABs in the majors and Reed get a whole season in Charlotte.

What happens if Borchard still isn't ready (i.e., strike outs stay too high)? In other words, what is your back-up plan?

MarkEdward
08-26-2003, 01:13 AM
Originally posted by soxtalker
What happens if Borchard still isn't ready (i.e., strike outs stay too high)? In other words, what is your back-up plan?

Well, Joe Borchard will be 25 at the start of the 2004 season. We must give him an extended stay in the majors to see if he could hit major league pitching. As far as I'm concerned, he should be in the starting line-up come April first, 2004, whether it be in center or left.

If, after a month or so, Borchard is struggling mightily in the majors, I'd send him back to Charlotte. Assuming Lee is gone, I'd then put Rowand in center and Daubach in left (assuming he returns to the team. If not, there are plenty of capable corner outfielders that could be had cheaply).

gosox41
08-26-2003, 04:23 AM
Originally posted by soxtalker
As I understand it, we need to offer arbitration to a player in order to get a draft choice. Of these categories, where is that applicable?

Does it mean that we have to offer arbitration to both Colon and Lee?

In the case of Sullivan, is arbitration even possible? It seems like our only choice is to either exercise the option or let him become a free agent. If the latter happens, do we get any compensation?

If a player is a free agent, in order to get draft pick compensation he needs to be offered arbitration. Everett and Colon fall into this category.

Lee is still property of the Sox and can either negotiate a deal with the team or go to arbitration.

I don't know Sullivan's contract status but if he does have an option the Sox fail to pick up then Sully can become a free agent.

Bob

gosox41
08-26-2003, 04:24 AM
Originally posted by dickallen15
Bartolo may indeed be the cream of the crop. The Yankees supposedly are very interested and would probably give him a boat load of money. Lee is a KW favorite, and is really playing well, I don't see any way the Sox non-tender him. As for Sullivan, I think it all depends on how the rest of the year plays out. His contract is pretty significant for a middle reliever, but the Sox have a lot of potential free agents, so its possible they exercise his option.

The fact they have $6 mill committed to Koch next season limits the Sox, however if they continue to draw well (and Sullivan is effective) I'd assume the Sox would raise their payroll and bring him back. It's not like they have a lot of options for relievers.

Bob

gosox41
08-26-2003, 04:28 AM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
If Gammons is accurate and Colon will be offered eight or nine million per year, the Sox can say "goodbye."

No way will Uncle Jerry allow that type of money to be spent on a pitcher. Unfortunately.

Lip

Is Colon worrth a $9 mill per year contract for 3-4 years? After seeing him this year I'm having my doubts. When we traded for Colon I expected better numbers from him. The fact that he is having back problems concerns me because he is 31 and does have a weight issue.

Overall do you think Colon has pitched like you expected him? If the free agent mkt. continues to be soft maybe the Sox can sign 2 cheaper pitchers with equivalent to slightly worse numbers then Colon.

Bob

gosox41
08-26-2003, 04:29 AM
Originally posted by jcw218
The least that Carlos could earn next year would be a 20% reduction from this years salary.

Unless of course, he is non-tenedered, and no team wants to sign him. Then he can whatever the market bears.

Bob

gosox41
08-26-2003, 04:31 AM
Originally posted by maurice
1. Based on his recent radio comments, KW has a very high opinion of CLee. I suspect that many other GMs agree. He won't be non-tendered.

2. Gammons article estimates that Tejada will get a deal around $9 million / year, but that Luis Castillo will get half that. Huh?!?

I thnk Lee could be traded for pitching. There's no reason to non-tender him. If the Sox want to move him he'll be easier to trade then PK.

Bob

soxtalker
08-26-2003, 09:25 AM
Originally posted by gosox41
Is Colon worrth a $9 mill per year contract for 3-4 years? After seeing him this year I'm having my doubts. When we traded for Colon I expected better numbers from him. The fact that he is having back problems concerns me because he is 31 and does have a weight issue.

Overall do you think Colon has pitched like you expected him? If the free agent mkt. continues to be soft maybe the Sox can sign 2 cheaper pitchers with equivalent to slightly worse numbers then Colon.

Bob

I've been thinking along the same lines.

Colon has been brilliant at times, but he has also disappointed more often than I would have expected. He may prove his true value, of course, in the playoffs. But it would end up being a big risk to take on that salary for that long. Even if JR increases the budget for next year, based on higher revenue estimates -- and that's a big if -- $9M would be a substantial chunk. Yes, he could turn into Roger Clemens or the NYY David Wells, but he could also have a lot more back trouble.

RichH55
08-26-2003, 11:25 AM
I keep reading "the days where a pitcher gets more than a 3 year deal appear to be over"./......perhaps JR is ahead of his time?


That one is just for Lip:)