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chisoxfanatic
08-24-2003, 10:57 PM
This divisional race has been heated for the past month or so. Who are you more worried about when it comes down to who we may have to more closely contend with down to the wire? The Twins or Royals.

TornLabrum
08-24-2003, 11:07 PM
Originally posted by chisoxfanatic
This divisional race has been heated for the past month or so. Who are you more worried about when it comes down to who we may have to more closely contend with down to the wire? The Twins or Royals.

Twins. My calculations have them sneaking into the division championship as the Sox and KC beat up on each other in the last 4 games of the season.

Nick@Nite
08-24-2003, 11:09 PM
The Twins... because if they get on a roll, their cupcake schedule the rest of the way could really be tough to overcome.

The Royals will run out of gas, imo... though their schedule the rest of the way looks similar to the Twins schedule.

Dadawg_77
08-24-2003, 11:11 PM
Originally posted by TornLabrum
Twins. My calculations have them sneaking into the division championship as the Sox and KC beat up on each other in the last 4 games of the season.

The Sox have to play better (higher winning %) then KC to win the Central, but 7 out of the last 9 games vs Detroit scare me about the Twins. Hey maybe we can trade the Tigers some players for PTBNL, which happen to be the very same players, for those games.

MRKARNO
08-24-2003, 11:12 PM
I'm equally afraid because both teams in reality have the same schedule, just in a different order. Both teams have the potential to win and to lose. So expect....the unexpected

WinningUgly!
08-24-2003, 11:20 PM
I'm more worried about Jerry Manuel than I am the Twins or Royals!

jcw218
08-24-2003, 11:24 PM
I'm more worried about the White Sox taking care of their own business. They need to break their habit of playing to the level of their compition i.e. playing good against the good teams and playing poorly against the poor teams. They need to win each remaining series through the end of the season.

With 31 games remaining, winning each series without a sweep, except for the two game series against Boston at the Cell, would give the Sox a record of 22 wins and 9 losses for a final record of 91 & 71.

KC with 33 games remaining would have to go 24 - 9 to tie us 25 - 8 to beat us.
MN with 32 games remaining would have to go 24 - 8 to tie us 25 - 7 to beat us.

chisoxfanatic
08-24-2003, 11:38 PM
I too am more worried about the Twins than the Royals. We have 7 of the last 10 games against the Royals, so we'd control our own destiny with them...But the Twins have a very easy last 10 games against Cleveland and Detroit. Hopefully Cleveland will be able to help out our cause, because I don't see them faltering against the Tigers.

The one thing that I am happy about is that we only have a three-game series at the Humpdome, while they have to come to Comiskey for a four-game series. I'm thinking we take 2 of 3 at the Humpdome and 3 of 4 at Comiskey, giving us a 5-2 record against them in September, which would make it hard for them to come back against us.

dougs78
08-25-2003, 06:17 AM
Originally posted by jcw218
I'm more worried about the White Sox taking care of their own business.

Exactly. At this point I have no doubt the Sox are the most talented team in the division. Its really up to them to show up and play like it. We still have plenty of games with KC and Minnesota that will obviously determine our fate. Its in our hands.

I understand the concern with the remaining schedules, but honestly this Sox team needs to go out and just play their game, the rest will take care of itself.

NewyorkSoxFan
08-25-2003, 07:24 AM
I am def more worried about the Sox taking care of buisness. If by chance we can get the NY series, and the Detroit series we will go along way toward winning the division. This is a big week, b/c they (twinkies/Royals) play in reverse order the teams we just beat. I have been watching both of these teams and I think that they might have trouble with both of these teams. Especially Minny who is on the road. So if we win these series we can come home 3 or 4 games up, and I think that could help to hasten the KC slide, and and then we just try to match minny until we play them head to head.

I am hoping that it doesn't come down to the last weekend. I don't like the Sox in those types of pressure situations. Not that they couldn't do it, but we would obviously like to go to KC needing a win or 2 to clinch, as opposed to having to sweep or win 3 of 4. Even though KC might be out of it by then, they certainly want to play spoiler to the Sox in that situation much like Minny did in 2000 when we clinched with a loss!! We might not be so lucky this year.

NYSF

LuvSox
08-25-2003, 09:07 AM
Originally posted by WinningUgly!
I'm more worried about Jerry Manuel than I am the Twins or Royals!

The only thing to fear is Jerry Manuel himself!

PaleHoseGeorge
08-25-2003, 10:04 AM
I agree with LuvSox and WU. This division is ours to lose, and the weakest bit of our championship pedigree has got to be the manager calling the shots. Pena is clearly superior to Manuel and I'm to the point I would rather have tolerated Gardenhire's stupid motivational tricks than spent the last five months watching Manuel treat this team like it was playing in the Orland Park Little League.

We're in first place. If we take care of our own business, everything will be fine. Other than that, here's my only bit of advice to the Sox:

Ignore this man ------------> :jerry

Hangar18
08-25-2003, 10:13 AM
Im gonna say the stupid Twins. They have a very soft cub-like
schedule the rest of the way, and the SOX have to play Incredibly
Hot baseball the rest of the way (only a month 1/2, we can do it)
to stay in front of them......

Hangar18
08-25-2003, 10:17 AM
Originally posted by jcw218
I'm more worried about the White Sox taking care of their own business. They need to break their habit of playing to the level of their compition i.e. playing good against the good teams and playing poorly against the poor teams. They need to win each remaining series through the end of the season.

With 31 games remaining, winning each series without a sweep, except for the two game series against Boston at the Cell, would give the Sox a record of 22 wins and 9 losses for a final record of 91 & 71.

KC with 33 games remaining would have to go 24 - 9 to tie us 25 - 8 to beat us.
MN with 32 games remaining would have to go 24 - 8 to tie us 25 - 7 to beat us.

Say...this is an excellent post. Does this Jive then, with WinningUglys 28 Magic Number? We should start Keeping Track of That (to motivate the sox)

Dadawg_77
08-25-2003, 10:29 AM
Originally posted by Hangar18
Say...this is an excellent post. Does this Jive then, with WinningUglys 28 Magic Number? We should start Keeping Track of That (to motivate the sox)

Some what, but it would be almost impossible for us to go 22-9 and either the Twins or Royals to put up records to match us, since we still have 7 games with them left. Since our 22-9 record assumes us beating each team 5 times, the Royals would have to 22-4 vs everyone else to tie us and the Twins would 24-3 to tie the Sox. While the Twins and Royals have easy schedule a head of them, I think they will lose at least three games vs teams besides us.

Dadawg_77
08-25-2003, 10:31 AM
Also Baseball Propectus Playoff odds reports gives us a 58.9% chance of winning the division.

ma-gaga
08-25-2003, 10:32 AM
Originally posted by Hangar18
Does this Jive then, with WinningUglys 28 Magic Number?

Have someone else verify the "magic number"... I think WU is off.

D'Angelo F Death
08-25-2003, 10:35 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Also Baseball Propectus Playoff odds reports gives us a 58.9% chance of winning the division.

Oh now I'll sleep easy. What a silly kiester-pulled number from the good people at B.P.

Dadawg_77
08-25-2003, 10:41 AM
Originally posted by D'Angelo F Death
Oh now I'll sleep easy. What a silly kiester-pulled number from the good people at B.P.

There is logic behind the number not perfect but it is one of the better ones out there. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/ps_odds.htm is the page

WU magic number isn't the normal number people report, but one that factors in how many times you play the second place team. Since those games count as two in the traditional since, this version just cuts them down to 1 game.

D'Angelo F Death
08-25-2003, 10:54 AM
Thanks for the link because, well, now it's clear as pie. KC will play lousy ball the rest of the year because their EqRA is higher than their EqRS, resulting in a poor W3% which their favorable SOS cannot overcome enough to save their ROY%.

The thing this calculus ignores is that the PEÑAIQ numbers chart higher than the JM.DUMASS%

Dadawg_77
08-25-2003, 11:11 AM
Originally posted by D'Angelo F Death
Thanks for the link because, well, now it's clear as pie. KC will play lousy ball the rest of the year because their EqRA is higher than their EqRS, resulting in a poor W3% which their favorable SOS cannot overcome enough to save their ROY%.

The thing this calculus ignores is that the PEÑAIQ numbers chart higher than the JM.DUMASS%

Hey I said it wasn't perfect. But math behind it is pretty good, but has some flaws in it.

FJA
08-25-2003, 11:14 AM
Originally posted by TornLabrum
Twins. My calculations have them sneaking into the division championship as the Sox and KC beat up on each other in the last 4 games of the season.

Bingo. I don't think the Twins are significantly better than KC, but I worry that we play the Twins in the Baggie Dome AFTER we play them at home, giving them the home-field advantage to pick up ground on us even if we win the series the week before at the Cell. If the Twins stay relatively hot against inferior competition, the Baggie Dome series could present for us a whole boat load of trouble if we lose it. If we win both series against the Twins, our destiny is in our own hands ... if not, winning both series against KC might still not win us the division, if Minnesota stays right on our tails and sweeps Detroit and Cleveland--not out of the question. We absolutely need to worry about putting away Minnesota before we can even think about those final seven against KC.

Clarkdog
08-25-2003, 11:26 AM
This division will be the Sox to win or lose. They must take care of thier own business.

That said, I can't put a reason why or a stat to support it, but I think that Anaheim and Texas are going to help us significantly against the Twins and Royals.

They are not going to lie down for anyone.

The Rangers have been one of the hottest teams since the All-Star break and smoking in August. The Angels struggled after the break but they are coming around, and I'm sure they don't want to finish last in their division after winning the WS in 2002.

It's just a hunch.

jcw218
08-25-2003, 12:30 PM
Assuming that the Sox just win each remaining series, the Royals and Twins can each win their remaining series, except the ones against the Sox, and the sox would win the division.

Each team wins the remainder of it's series with the Sox winning the head to head vs kc & mn.

With 31 games left, Sox go 22-9 for a final record of 91-71.
With 32 games left, Min goes 20-12 for a final record of 87-75.
With 33 games left, KC goes 20-13 for a final record of 87-75.

If the above senario happens, The standings in the AL Central look like this:

CHI 91 71 0
MIN 87 75 4
KC 87 75 4
CLE
DET

The Sox win the division by 4 games over the Twins and Royals.

ma-gaga
08-25-2003, 12:32 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
WU magic number isn't the normal number people report, but one that factors in how many times you play the second place team. Since those games count as two in the traditional since, this version just cuts them down to 1 game.

I was wondering if that was the case. There's a couple of things that are wrong with this assumption, but who cares really. My big question is:
Does it take into account the third place team?? Or because there's still 7 games between BOTH the 2nd and 3rd place team, everything works out?

:jerry
"it truly is a magic number"

Chisox353014
08-25-2003, 01:10 PM
Originally posted by ma-gaga
Have someone else verify the "magic number"... I think WU is off.

The Magic number should be 32 for the Sox to eliminate KC and 31 to eliminate Minnesota. Not surprisingly, Detroit's number is already -3. :D:

The formula is: (# of games remaining for the div. leader + 1) - (# losses of trailing team - # losses of division leader)

So, plugging in the numbers for:
KC = (31+1) - (62-62) = 32
Minny = (31+1) - (63-62) = 31
Detroit = (31+1) - (97-62) = -3
:gulp:

(EDIT: this is the "traditional" magic number calculation)

voodoochile
08-25-2003, 01:14 PM
Originally posted by Chisox353014
The Magic number should be 32 for the Sox to eliminate KC and 31 to eliminate Minnesota. Not surprisingly, Detroit's number is already -3. :D:

The formula is: (# of games remaining for the div. leader + 1) - (# losses of trailing team - # losses of division leader)

So, plugging in the numbers for:
KC = (31+1) - (62-62) = 32
Minny = (31+1) - (63-62) = 31
Detroit = (31+1) - (97-62) = -3
:gulp:

WOOHOO! TAKE THAT, DETROIT!

I just hope the Sox don't take them lightly this weekend because they've already been eliminated...

jcw218
08-25-2003, 01:22 PM
Originally posted by Chisox353014
The formula is: (# of games remaining for the div. leader + 1) - (# losses of trailing team - # losses of division leader)

So, plugging in the numbers for:
KC = (31+1) - (62-62) = 32
Minny = (31+1) - (63-62) = 31
Detroit = (31+1) - (97-62) = -3
:gulp:

Another way of figuring the magic number can be found here (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/faq.html#magic-number).

Using this formula w2 + g2 - w1 +1 = magic number
pluging in the numbers for:
KC - 67 + 33 - 69 +1 = 32
MN - 67 + 32 - 69 +1 = 31.

Visit here (http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/detail_numbers.html) for an explination for where the 28 comes from.

chisoxfanatic
08-25-2003, 01:32 PM
Originally posted by Clarkdog
That said, I can't put a reason why or a stat to support it, but I think that Anaheim and Texas are going to help us significantly against the Twins and Royals.

They are not going to lie down for anyone.


I completely agree here, since Anaheim and Texas are in a heated race of teams that don't want to finish dead last in their division. Both teams are going to do all they possibly can to assure that the other team finishes worse than do they, so they are going to play inspired ball the rest of the way, spelling trouble for both KC and Minnesota.

If the Sox continue to set themselves that goal of winning every series (easily accomplished if they set their sights on the first game of each series as a momentum-shifter), there should be no problem in them winning the division.

Mammoo
08-25-2003, 02:30 PM
...but the only team that can prevent a happy result is the White Sox. If they can win a few games on the road, they're a shoe in!

Dave Wills made a good point this AM during his commentary. The Sox should treat Tuesday as a playoff game. I think if they beat Clemens it will set the tone for the rest of the season. If they lose, we can expect another disastrous road trip (my thought, not Wills').

So you see, it really doesn't matter who's chasing them, if they get their **** together, everything will be OK! :smile:

LASOXFAN
08-25-2003, 03:37 PM
Originally posted by jcw218


With 31 games remaining, winning each series without a sweep, except for the two game series against Boston at the Cell, would give the Sox a record of 22 wins and 9 losses for a final record of 91 & 71.

KC with 33 games remaining would have to go 24 - 9 to tie us 25 - 8 to beat us.
MN with 32 games remaining would have to go 24 - 8 to tie us 25 - 7 to beat us.

The Sox are the second hottest team in baseball since the break, with a 24-12 record. That's a .667 winning percentage. If they remain this hot - and that's a big if - they will win 20-21 of their remaining games. Realistically they will cool off given the more difficult schedule, so look for them to go more like 18-13. That being the case it's much easier for the Twins to take the division, given their final games against the kittens.

But I also have a funny feeling that one of these three teams is going to separate themselves from the pack here in the next three weeks. I would've said the Sox have a good chance, but letting Cotts pitch against Mussina is like tossing a bunny rabbit to a rabid dog. We'll lose 2 of 3 to the Yankees and have to find a way to sweep Detroit to end the week 4-2. The Royals and Twins will go 3-3 this week, giving us only a slightly bigger lead. It's next week that's key...imho.

jabrch
08-25-2003, 08:41 PM
The Sox have been so hot since the break, I am afraid we may not be able to keep it up.

Minnesota has such a soft schedule, I am afraid they might win a few more games.

"everyone" has been saying all season that KC would eventually fall apart. I am afraid they may feel "everyone" a big ****burger and go out there and win more games.

As a Sox fan, I have much to be afraid of. I all too well remember the pains of prior years to get overly optimistic. Until our Magic Number is 0, I don't think I will be too comfortable. We are the most talented of the three teams. We have the best SP, the best Pen and the most potent offense. Our defense is probably the worst of the three - only Alomar and Mags are above average defensive players....

But pardon me....I am afraid...

PaleHoseGeorge
08-25-2003, 08:47 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
...But pardon me....I am afraid...

Don't worry about it. Deep down, we all are. :smile:

Daver
08-25-2003, 08:49 PM
Originally posted by jabrch
only Alomar and Mags are above average defensive players....



You forgot about Miguel Olivio,he is already in the top five in the AL defensively,even with his occasional rookie mistakes.

jabrch
08-25-2003, 08:57 PM
Originally posted by daver
You forgot about Miguel Olivio,he is already in the top five in the AL defensively,even with his occasional rookie mistakes.


Absolutely right Daver...I left Olivo out accidentally. He too is above average defensively. (But then again, so are both DiFelice and AJ Piezzkjdchkfdjhski.) But Olivo is above average.

chisoxfanatic
08-25-2003, 08:57 PM
Originally posted by daver
You forgot about Miguel Olivio,he is already in the top five in the AL defensively,even with his occasional rookie mistakes.

We can't forget the great improvement of Carlos Lee on the defensive side. He worked so hard during the offseason in order to shapen up defensively, and he's making plays he didn't make in previous seasons. I think he'll be only better next year.

Daver
08-25-2003, 09:02 PM
Originally posted by chisoxfanatic
We can't forget the great improvement of Carlos Lee on the defensive side. He worked so hard during the offseason in order to shapen up defensively, and he's making plays he didn't make in previous seasons. I think he'll be only better next year.

If he improves next year it would move him all the way up to "passable" defensively then.

LASOXFAN
08-26-2003, 12:15 AM
Originally posted by PaleHoseGeorge
Don't worry about it. Deep down, we all are. :smile:

glad I'm not alone

jcw218
08-26-2003, 01:02 AM
Originally posted by LASOXFAN
glad I'm not alone

No you're not. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Of the three teams in contention for the AL Central the team that worries me the most is the Sox and their habit of playing to their competition. With that being said, the remaining schedule breaks down like this:

Home:
2 vs Bos
3 vs Cle
4 vs Min
3 vs KC
3 vs NYY

Away
3 @ NYY
3 @ Det
3 @ Bos
3 @ Min
4 @ KC

The Sox need to take care of their own business and not worry about what kc and minny do.

JC456
08-26-2003, 12:49 PM
Originally posted by WinningUgly!
I'm more worried about Jerry Manuel than I am the Twins or Royals!

I'm more worried about the umpiring. This team has been through some horribly umpired games this year. I just hope the umps call the games fairly. Same strike zone for the Sox as their opposition.

NewyorkSoxFan
08-26-2003, 12:58 PM
Originally posted by jcw218
No you're not. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Of the three teams in contention for the AL Central the team that worries me the most is the Sox and their habit of playing to their competition. With that being said, the remaining schedule breaks down like this:

Home:
2 vs Bos
3 vs Cle
4 vs Min
3 vs KC
3 vs NYY

Away
3 @ NYY
3 @ Det
3 @ Bos
3 @ Min
4 @ KC

The Sox need to take care of their own business and not worry about what kc and minny do.



I would say this, I for one am glad the Sox have to play there butts off to get to the post season. I think that there is too much talk going on by the Twinkies and Royals about how easy there schedule is and how hard the Sox schedule is.

This team needs to come to the park everyday knowing they need to win. They don't do well when they are expected to win. I also think that the level of competiton will also help them when they get to the playoffs. I still feel that in '00 it hurt us that we were cruising and just counting down the magic number and then trying to turn it on in Oct. Look at what happened to the Angels, they had to be perfect to get in last year, they had the A's that won 20 in a row, the Mariners were playing well, and they were trying to keep up. They got in and took off, b/c the Yankees were already plannning in Sept for the ALCS, and the Angels had a very different mindset, which was win everyday.

So this is where the rubber meets the road, if you play well you deserve to get to the playoffs, if you don't you won't. But if they do, and they do this against teams they could meet in Oct imagine what type of confidence this team will have. I am concerned, but I hope they are up for the challenge.

NYSF

PaleHoseGeorge
08-26-2003, 01:11 PM
Originally posted by NewyorkSoxFan
....So this is where the rubber meets the road, if you play well you deserve to get to the playoffs, if you don't you won't. But if they do, and they do this against teams they could meet in Oct imagine what type of confidence this team will have. I am concerned, but I hope they are up for the challenge.


Yep. Whatever goofy ideas inside the manager's head squandered the early opportunities we had to ice this division, the fact is we need to play well down the stretch for any of it to make a difference. The way Manuel loves to play down to his competition, I practically consider it an advantage we aren't playing more also-rans down the stretch.

This may sound goofy, but I would much rather be playing well in September to win the division than locking up the title early in the season (like we did in '00) and play mediocre down the stretch. With Manuel at the helm, this team only excels when its back is to the wall.*

It's now or never for this bunch. In the long run, that's a good thing.

* One caveat. With Manuel, they always play well when the pressure is off, too. Like last year, when we were sleeping May-July, then played well after we were hopelessly out of it.
:angry:

JC456
08-26-2003, 03:35 PM
To me it doesn't matter. If they did have an easier schedule and lost, then they'd be criticized for losing to those teams and if they can't step it up here against the schedule they have against the tougher teams, they will be criticized for not stepping up. They lose either way. So for me it isn't important who they play, just that they continue with the successes of late and let's party hard.

This is the playoffs. Just the extended version and will show the league if they are capable of making the post season.