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View Full Version : Predictions through end of the year


Iwritecode
08-19-2003, 12:17 PM
I hope this isn't TOO difficult to read. I had to use the dots to get everything to line up right in here. Anyway, these are my predictions for the Sox, Twins and Royals through the end of the year. I didn't put a whole lot of thought or statistical analysis into it, more of a "gut feeling" kind of thing. Don't pay too much attention to long winning or losing streaks either. I just kind of went by how I thought each team would do overall in the series (sweep, 2-1, 3-1, 1-2, etc...). I did each team seperately and kind of surprised myself at how close they remained all the way to the end. I may be overly optimistic about those last 7 games against KC also, but if the rest of it stays close, they can still afford to lose 1 or 2 more of those games. I started this yesterday afternoon so I am looking good so far with my prediction of taking 2 of 3 from the Angels and KC losing 2 of 3. :smile:

Although you guys probably won't believe me, I also predicted last nights ending. Although I had it as Tony singles, Robbie bunts him to second and Frank doubles him in. Close enough I guess...

Anyway, check it out and let me know what ya'll think.

……………...SOX…...........…………MIN……….....…….....….KAN

8/18 (W 64-61)..ANA………(63-61)..OFF………….(L 65-58)..@NY
8/19 (W 65-61)..ANA………(W 64-61)..@CLE……(L 65-59)..@NY
8/20 (L 65-62)..ANA……….(L 64-62)..@CLE……(W 66-59)..@NY
8/21 (W 66-62)..TEX……….(W 65-62)..KC………..(L 66-60)..@MIN
8/22 (W 67-62)..TEX……….(W 66-62)..KC………..(L 66-61)..@MIN
8/23 (L 67-63)..TEX………..(L 66-63)..KC………..(W 67-61)..@MIN
8/24 (L 67-64)..TEX…….….(L 66-64)..KC………...(W 68-61)..@MIN
8/25 OFF….……………………..OFF…………………..OFF
8/26 (W 68-64)..@NY………(W 67-64)..@ANA…...(W 69-61)..TEX
8/27 (L 68-65)..@NY………(W 68-64).. @ANA…...(W 70-61)..TEX
8/28 (L 68-66)..@NY………(L 68-65).. @ANA…...(L 70-62)..TEX
8/29 (W 69-66)..@DET……..(L 68-66).. @TEX……(W 71-62)..ANA
8/30 (W 70-66)..@DET……..(L 68-67).. @TEX……(W 72-62)..ANA
8/31 (W 71-66)..@DET……..(W 69-67).. @TEX……(L 72-63)..ANA
9/01 (71-66)..OFF…….……...(W 70-67)..ANA………(L 72-64)..@TEX
9/02 (W 72-66)..BOS……..…(L 70-68)..ANA………(W 73-64)..@TEX
9/03 (L 72-67)..BOS………..(W 71-68)..ANA………(W 74-64)..@TEX
9/04 OFF..………………...........……...OFF…………………(L 74-65)..ARI
9/05 (W 73-67)..CLE…..……(W 72-68)..TEX………..(L 74-66)..@ANA
9/06 (W 74-67)..CLE……..…(L 72-69)..TEX……...(L 74-67)..@ANA
9/07 (W 75-67)..CLE………..(L 72-70)..TEX……...(W 75-67)..@ANA
9/08 (W 76-67)..MIN…..……(L 72-71).. @CHW………..OFF
9/09 (W 77-67)..MIN……..…(L 72-72).. @CHW..……(W 76-67)..CLE
9/10 (L 77-68)..MIN………..(W 73-72).. @CHW..……(W 77-67)..CLE
9/11 (L 77-69)..MIN……..…(W 74-72).. @CHW..……(W 78-67)..CLE
9/12 (W 78-69)..@BOS……..(W 75-72).. @CLE……..(W 79-67)..@DET
9/13 (W 79-69)..@BOS……..(W 76-72).. @CLE……..(L 79-68)..@DET
9/14 (L 79-70)..@BOS……...(L 76-73).. @CLE……..(W 80-68)..@DET
9/15 (79-70)..OFF…………...(W 77-73)..@CLE…..……(L 80-69)..@DET
9/16 (W 80-70)..@MIN……..(L 77-74)..CHW…...…..(W 81-69)..@CLE
9/17 (L 80-71)..@MIN……..(W 78-74)..CHW………..(W 82-69)..@CLE
9/18 (L 80-72)..@MIN……..(W 79-74)..CHW………..(L 82-70)..@CLE
9/19 (W 81-72)..KC…………(W 80-74)..DET……….…(L 82-71)..@CHW
9/20 (W 82-72)..KC…………(W 81-74)..DET……….…(L 82-72)..@CHW
9/21 (W 83-72)..KC…………(W 82-74)..DET………....(L 82-73)..@CHW
9/22 (W 84-72)..NY……………...OFF…….....…………....(W 83-73)..DET
9/23 (W 85-72)..NY…………(L 82-75)..CLE…………...(W 84-73)..DET
9/24 (L 85-73)..NY…………(W 83-75)..CLE……..……(L 84-74)..DET
9/25 (W 86-73)..@KC………(W 84-75)..@DET……….(L 84-75)..CHW
9/26 (W 87-73)..@KC………(W 85-75)..@DET……….(L 84-76)..CHW
9/27 (W 88-73)..@KC………(W 86-75)..@DET……….(L 84-77)..CHW
9/28 (L 88-74)..@KC………(L 86-76)..@DET………..(W 85-77)..CHW

Dadawg_77
08-19-2003, 12:20 PM
Here is a statical work up on the Sox odds at reaching the playoffs. The Twins have the leading with a 41.4% chance at winning the Central, the Sox have a 31.7% chance and KC is thrid with a 26.9% chance.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/ps_odds.htm

cheeses_h_rice
08-19-2003, 12:28 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Here is a statical work up on the Sox odds at reaching the playoffs. The Twins have the leading with a 41.4% chance at winning the Central, the Sox have a 31.7% chance and KC is thrid with a 26.9% chance.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/ps_odds.htm

Hmm, according to that, the Flubs are gonna win the NL Comedy Central, too...

ssang
08-19-2003, 01:09 PM
I hate to say it but this is how the division will end up when all is said in done.

1. Minnesota
2. Chicago
3. Kansas City

CHISOXFAN13
08-19-2003, 01:17 PM
Interesting stat on Anaheim.

The Angels are a robust 17-6 against the AL Central and have 18 games left with the league.

I'll be rooting hard for Anaheim come Thursday night.

LASOXFAN
08-19-2003, 02:05 PM
For how many days this year have the Sox been in first?

They seem incapable of climbing into first much less staying there. They invariably fall back a few games out. I've seen nothing in this last road trip to convince me that they have another run in them where they can get in first and hold on. They had their chance when they were hot and they let it go. It's too bad but every team has its hump and I think we've found ours. I say we finish 3rd, much to my disappointment.

Of course I'll be pulling for a better finish...but wish in one hand and crap in the other and see which fills up first.

MRKARNO
08-19-2003, 02:41 PM
Originally posted by CHISOXFAN13
Interesting stat on Anaheim.

The Angels are a robust 17-6 against the AL Central and have 18 games left with the league.

I'll be rooting hard for Anaheim come Thursday night.

It would be REALLY nice if the rangers, indians and angels all stayed really hot through the stretch

Twins8791
08-20-2003, 01:13 AM
Unfortunately, I see the Twins, Sox, and KC playing very so-so 'till the end. I'm a fan of great baseball and wished we had this kind of race at a higher level. As for the winner, I have a three-headed coin around here somewhere...

fquaye149
08-20-2003, 04:46 AM
sox in five. just like the mountains goats song cubs in five.

but this is real life so

sox in five

Iwritecode
08-20-2003, 10:27 AM
Wow, 2 for 2 in my first 2 predictions. I kinda hope my prediction for tonights game doesn't come true. I'll gladly be wrong about the Sox and Yanks each taking 2 of 3. :smile:

Iwritecode
08-29-2003, 12:20 PM
Just thought I'd drag this up again. So far the Sox are 2 games above were I predicted they'd be. The Twins are 1 game up and the Royals are exactly were I predicted. If they stay on this pace, the Sox will take the divsion with 90 wins. :D:

Lets hope my H2H predictions against the Royals and Twins hold true. That's where the season will be won or lost...

bobj4400
08-29-2003, 12:36 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Here is a statical work up on the Sox odds at reaching the playoffs. The Twins have the leading with a 41.4% chance at winning the Central, the Sox have a 31.7% chance and KC is thrid with a 26.9% chance.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/ps_odds.htm

If I am reading this thing correctly, the Sox are now a strong favorite to win the division...

Iwritecode
08-29-2003, 01:04 PM
Originally posted by bobj4400
If I am reading this thing correctly, the Sox are now a strong favorite to win the division...

I'm assuming they go by how the Sox have done so far this season against the teams they have yet to face.

Considering the way they just destroyed NY, and have played pretty well against KC and Minny, I can see why they are so heavily favored.

I assume they also look at home/road records.

The Sox have been fairly dominant at home and the majority of their remaining games are at home.

If they continue to play well against KC and Minny, beat the teams they are supposed to beat (Cleveland and Detroit) and play at least .500 against NY and Boston, they should win this thing with no problem.

Of course if the games were played on paper, they would probably have a couple more rings by now... :(:

Iwritecode
09-04-2003, 12:33 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Here is a statical work up on the Sox odds at reaching the playoffs. The Twins have the leading with a 41.4% chance at winning the Central, the Sox have a 31.7% chance and KC is thrid with a 26.9% chance.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/ps_odds.htm

It's amazing how much this thing can change day to day. I think this race is going to come down to the last few games anyway so it's not much use.

The way I see it, the Sox need to win every single series through the rest of the season. That includes going 5 - 2 against both the Twins and Royals. and 2 - 1 against both the Yanks and Red Sox. A few sweeps thrown in would be good too. After this weekend the Twins and Royals face only the Sox, Indians and Tigers. They can't expect too much help from those two teams so if they are going to win this division it's going to have to happen in those H2H matchups.

The only thing I can say is that it's going to be one hell of an interesting (nail-biting, stomach-churning, ulcer-forming, edge-of-the-seat) September...

Iwritecode
09-18-2003, 11:53 AM
Sorry, but I just had to drag this up one more time...

Looking back at the predictions I made I've noticed something a little disturbing... I haven't been wrong about the Sox since the 2-game home series against Boston. (I predicted they would split but they lost both games.)

I've only been wrong 5 times for the Sox so far. It's just that twice it was because I predicted they would win but they lost instead.

Anyway, if this trend continues, they should win tonight and go 8 - 2 in the final 10 games.

That would be great but the Twins would go 7 - 2 (they have one off day left) thus winning the division by one measly game. I've been wrong 4 times in my predictions for the Twins. The only problem is they were all where I thought they would lose but they won instead.

So, my hope is that I'll be wrong about the Sox at least one more time and they'll go 9 - 1 to force the one-game playoff OR the Twins will reverse the trend and finally lose a game (or 2) I predicted them to win.

So, I'm not gonna say it's over till it's over. I'll continue to root for the Sox and become a huge Tigers and Indians fan this last week and a half.

:gulp: Here's to the Tigers NOT losing 120 games this season!!!