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View Full Version : K.C. runs scored/runs allowed


SoxxoS
08-14-2003, 08:28 AM
To my amazement, before last nights Yankee debacle the Royals have allowed more runs than they have scored (619 to 612)

There are only 2 other teams in baseball with an above .500 record with more runs allowed than scored...The Twins and the Expos.

This team is winning by smoke and mirrors, and everyone knows it. There is nothing the Sox can do but just keep winning. K.C. is going to fold at least a little bit, it's the law of averages.

Oh, and K.C. has exactly one day off in all of September, and that is a travel day from Anaheim to Cleveland. They have 16 games away and 12 games at Kauffman. Although they aren't playing the toughest teams, the are playing a rough schedule nonetheless.

Lip Man 1
08-14-2003, 01:03 PM
I hope your right but it's unfortunate that the Sox put themselves in this position in the first place isn't it?

Lip

Dadawg_77
08-14-2003, 01:22 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
I hope your right but it's unfortunate that the Sox put themselves in this position in the first place isn't it?

Lip

Yes it is.

Here is a fact, based on Bill James' Pythagorean theorem of baseball: Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]). The Sox winning percentage should be .525, the Royals .503, the Twins .480. Thus based on runs scored and runs allowed, the Sox should have 2.5 game lead on the royals and three game lead on the Twins.

In reality the Royals have a .538, Sox have exactly .525 and the Twins have 508.

FJA
08-14-2003, 01:36 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
To my amazement, before last nights Yankee debacle the Royals have allowed more runs than they have scored (619 to 612)

There are only 2 other teams in baseball with an above .500 record with more runs allowed than scored...The Twins and the Expos.

This team is winning by smoke and mirrors, and everyone knows it. There is nothing the Sox can do but just keep winning. K.C. is going to fold at least a little bit, it's the law of averages.

Oh, and K.C. has exactly one day off in all of September, and that is a travel day from Anaheim to Cleveland. They have 16 games away and 12 games at Kauffman. Although they aren't playing the toughest teams, the are playing a rough schedule nonetheless.

This is what kills me about KC. I'll give credit where credit is due, and this is a good TEAM. I can't remember too many other teams in my lifetime who have had everyone on the bench and the manager so excited and into the game. Sox fans like to talk about Jose Valentin's "clubhouse" contributions. Surely his attitude has at least helped us win a few games. While that's nice, the Royals do it from the top down--everyone from Tony Pena on makes those "clubhouse" contributions. Whereas a guy like Lou Pinella knows how to motivate players to reaching their full potential, Tony Pena seems to do that, all the while being "one of the boys." If you don't think that translates at least somewhat into success--fluke or not--you're crazy.

But I still don't believe KC will do a thing in the playoffs when and if they get there. This thing with as many runs given up as scored won't work in the playoffs. They are something like 33-42 against teams with .500 records or above. Did they beat the Yankees? Yes, but they got lucky in that they finally got the bad-back David Wells, and they got to face the great Jeff Weaver. Look what they did against Mike Mussina. I think that might be the best indicator in this latest series of how they will fare in the playoffs. Smoke, mirrors and nearly every break a team could possibly receive are right.

Think about these names: Jose Lima, Kevin Appier ... how the hell are these by-all-accounts-washed-up guys suddenly performing like Cy Young? Everything about the Royals defies logic, which is why so many people still refuse to believe they'll win the division, and why so many "analysts" refuse to make any concrete predictions.

doublem23
08-14-2003, 02:52 PM
That's the thing... They're NOT a good team; they keep on winning from sheer and utter luck (Jose Lima 7-0? Who made a pact with Satan?) and ridiculous clutch hitting; which as the 2000 White Sox and 2001 Mariners found out the next year, does not repeat itself too often.

Say it with me... The Royals are no good.

Dadawg_77
08-14-2003, 03:07 PM
Here some interesting reading

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/alcurrent.html

doublem23
08-14-2003, 03:14 PM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Here some interesting reading

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/alcurrent.html

Good quote...
In addition to being the luckiest "pythagorean" team in the League, the Royals are the luckiest "run elements" team, too. Something's got to give.

At least someone else sees it. :gulp:

Lip Man 1
08-14-2003, 05:37 PM
It doesn't matter how much luck they have will it.

Come October if they are playing the Yankees or A's and the Sox are sitting home despite all that "talent" who's fans are going to be happy?

Considering the amount of real talent between the two clubs I can't imagine how the Royals are where they are at and why the Sox are where they are at.

Luck is the residual of design.... Branch Rickey.

Lip