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soxfan45
06-24-2003, 12:02 PM
I was just looking at ESPNs stats to dig into these misconceptions that I've had, to find:

1) Contrary to my belief, we are not that bad of a fielding team, statistically....4th in the AL in fielding percentage. Now I wish they would keep a total of mental errors and fielding blunders. My guess is that Jose is way up there.

2) Double plays...Konerko leads the league with 13, Lee and Ordonez each have 12. Basically our former 4,5,and 6 hitters are in the top 5 in double plays in the AL.

How the heck are we going to win with these characters grounding into so many DPs?

Actually I think that Magglio is one of the biggest disappointments we've had this year. He has done absolutly nothing in key situations. At least Carlos has some life and has had some big hits.

Paulwny
06-24-2003, 12:12 PM
Originally posted by soxfan45


Actually I think that Magglio is one of the biggest disappointments we've had this year. He has done absolutly nothing in key situations. At least Carlos has some life and has had some big hits.

Yep, for the last 3 years, predictions of Magg's break out MVP season.
I've jumped off the Lee wagon, instead of thoughts of another Manny Ramierez, I have thoughts of another Lyle Mouton.

MRKARNO
06-24-2003, 12:16 PM
I think we've seen what these players can all do, it's just the question of when they put it all together for a full season

hold2dibber
06-24-2003, 12:21 PM
Originally posted by soxfan45
I was just looking at ESPNs stats to dig into these misconceptions that I've had, to find:

1) Contrary to my belief, we are not that bad of a fielding team, statistically....4th in the AL in fielding percentage. Now I wish they would keep a total of mental errors and fielding blunders. My guess is that Jose is way up there.

2) Double plays...Konerko leads the league with 13, Lee and Ordonez each have 12. Basically our former 4,5,and 6 hitters are in the top 5 in double plays in the AL.

How the heck are we going to win with these characters grounding into so many DPs?

Actually I think that Magglio is one of the biggest disappointments we've had this year. He has done absolutly nothing in key situations. At least Carlos has some life and has had some big hits.

If you ask me, Jimenez is the team leader in mental errors and fielding blunders, not Jose. As talented as that guy is, he is a knuckle-head.

And I agree that Maggs has been disappointing so far; but despite the fact that he hasn't even come close to getting hot, he is still putting up half way decent numbers. I full expect him to start knocking the ball around like the Maggs we've seen the last few years.

voodoochile
06-24-2003, 01:48 PM
Originally posted by soxfan45
I was just looking at ESPNs stats to dig into these misconceptions that I've had, to find:

1) Contrary to my belief, we are not that bad of a fielding team, statistically....4th in the AL in fielding percentage. Now I wish they would keep a total of mental errors and fielding blunders. My guess is that Jose is way up there.

2) Double plays...Konerko leads the league with 13, Lee and Ordonez each have 12. Basically our former 4,5,and 6 hitters are in the top 5 in double plays in the AL.

How the heck are we going to win with these characters grounding into so many DPs?

Actually I think that Magglio is one of the biggest disappointments we've had this year. He has done absolutly nothing in key situations. At least Carlos has some life and has had some big hits.

Hey, Welcome Aboard! :D:

This has been a raging debate since the days "The Choice" patrolled SS before taking his special ability to Milwaukee...

soxfan45
06-24-2003, 02:17 PM
I hate to say this guys but I'm wondering if we were just better off with Royce at short fielding everything near him instead of a bad fielder (Valentine) who also hasn't done anything with the stick this year.

Lets face it, our "up the middle" group is very suspect.

southpaw40
06-24-2003, 02:23 PM
When you look at the statistics for the American League, you have to realize just how important hitting (especially situational hitting) is to a team's success. Our Sox rank near the top of the league in fielding percentage and ERA. Additionally, they have a high number of double plays turned when compared to the rest of the league, and the stolen base against is about 50/50, which appears to be far better than league average.
If anyone had told me before the season started that the only thing we had to worry about was scoring runs, I would have laughed at them!

MRKARNO
06-24-2003, 02:54 PM
Originally posted by soxfan45
I hate to say this guys but I'm wondering if we were just better off with Royce at short fielding everything near him instead of a bad fielder (Valentine) who also hasn't done anything with the stick this year.

Lets face it, our "up the middle" group is very suspect.

we're talking about a Jose Valentin who has consistantly hit 25+ homers since coming to the White Sox. he shouldnt have too many problems matching that. He's less than halfway there, but his slump wont last forever. Besides, do you remember that time about a month into the season in '01 when Clayton was batting .095? You think Konerko's bad now, he was god awful (but he did raise his average to .263, which for konerko seems unlikey)

Iwritecode
06-24-2003, 03:12 PM
Originally posted by southpaw40
When you look at the statistics for the American League, you have to realize just how important hitting (especially situational hitting) is to a team's success. Our Sox rank near the top of the league in fielding percentage and ERA. Additionally, they have a high number of double plays turned when compared to the rest of the league, and the stolen base against is about 50/50, which appears to be far better than league average.
If anyone had told me before the season started that the only thing we had to worry about was scoring runs, I would have laughed at them!

I've always said that all the pitching and defense in the world doesn't mean a thing when you can't score runs...

Gumshoe
06-24-2003, 03:15 PM
Southpaw is right on! Did you see how sweet Jose was at short for us against the Cubs? He made some great plays, great DP turns, and almost a spectacular one on that Lenny Harris line drive. Our "bad D" is totally overrated --- it's just another thing to occasionally get pissed about. Jose is FAR more valuable of a player than Rolls Royce. Fielding judments are SO subjective. If you haven't, read moneyball; at least you'll start to think WHY someone might say Jose Valentin is FAR more valuable than Royce. Another thing:

If Konerko gets to play, he will come back. I guarantee it .

Gumshoe

ps- as many have said, this is put up or shut up time. I have a feeling we'll put up for a while. Another eery thing is, while reading Moneyball, I see corollaries to the Sox ... A's guys think you should NEVER sac bunt (we don't/can't) and the team is controlled by the GM mercilessly. KW is trying to do that, too bad he's KW........ argh

Randar68
06-24-2003, 03:17 PM
Originally posted by Iwritecode
I've always said that all the pitching and defense in the world doesn't mean a thing when you can't score runs...

I have seen probably 80% of the Sox games this year, either live or on TV, and I have seen every one of the "heartbreak" or "tough loss" games.

Not being able to bunt or hit sac flies alone has cost this team 6-8 games this season. It's the difference between being above .500 and right there with the Twins and 5 games under .500 and still 5.5 back. That isn't even including hitting to the right side and moving runners over or baserunning blunders. This team has missed numerous opportunities to put away 1 or 2 run games only to blow them in the last 3 innings and end up losing by 1 or 2.

How many 1 out bases-loaded DP's can one team hit into?

southpaw40
06-24-2003, 03:47 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Not being able to bunt or hit sac flies alone has cost this team 6-8 games this season......... This team has missed numerous opportunities to put away 1 or 2 run games only to blow them in the last 3 innings and end up losing by 1 or 2.How many 1 out bases-loaded DP's can one team hit into?

Randar, my thoughts exactly.....if you believe (as I do) that these things have a way of evening out over the course of a season, we've got a lot of good things coming our way from here on out.....and I'd like to see it start happening tonight!

soxfan45
06-24-2003, 04:53 PM
I wish I could share your optimism about Konerko. I just don't feel like we have the time to allow him to recover out of his slump. Being 5 1/2 games out, struggling, and hitting .242 as a team is not what I would call an ideal situation to give Konerko many at bats. Although his contract probably doesn't allow it, I would send him to AAA to get some at bats.

Face it guys, his performance (sub .200 13 double plays) doesn't warrent him getting too many at bats at this level and in our current situation.
The worst part is that he is screwed up in the head. The guy must have lost 20 lbs.

Also, I disagree with the premise that good pitching and defense doesn't win games...It wins playoff games and world series games!!! Over the years, Atlanta and the Twins....

gosox41
06-24-2003, 04:55 PM
Originally posted by southpaw40
When you look at the statistics for the American League, you have to realize just how important hitting (especially situational hitting) is to a team's success. Our Sox rank near the top of the league in fielding percentage and ERA. Additionally, they have a high number of double plays turned when compared to the rest of the league, and the stolen base against is about 50/50, which appears to be far better than league average.
If anyone had told me before the season started that the only thing we had to worry about was scoring runs, I would have laughed at them!

Fielding percentage alone is highly overrated. Range plays a major role in defense. DP's are also related to how many men Sox pitchers put on base, though the starting pitching has been impressive. They do lead the AL in quality starts.

Any day they want to start hitting is fine with me.

Bob

gosox41
06-24-2003, 04:58 PM
Originally posted by soxfan45
I wish I could share your optimism about Konerko. I just don't feel like we have the time to allow him to recover out of his slump. Being 5 1/2 games out, struggling, and hitting .242 as a team is not what I would call an ideal situation to give Konerko many at bats. Although his contract probably doesn't allow it, I would send him to AAA to get some at bats.

Face it guys, his performance (sub .200 13 double plays) doesn't warrent him getting too many at bats at this level and in our current situation.
The worst part is that he is screwed up in the head. The guy must have lost 20 lbs.

Also, I disagree with the premise that good pitching and defense doesn't win games...It wins playoff games and world series games!!! Over the years, Atlanta and the Twins....

The Braves have been a huge disappointment i nthe playoffs. They've been great during the regular season, but 11 playoff appearances in a row and they only have 1 WS championship. Some of this is due to luck, but offense is 50% of the game. How many first round eliminations do they have?

I suggest you read "Moneyball." It exmplains a lot of misperceptions about baseball with actual numbers and is also very entertaining.

Bob

soxfan45
06-24-2003, 05:05 PM
I'll tell you friend, I'd take the Braves string of playoff and world series appearances "anyday" over what we've had with the White Sox over the years. Over-rated, maybe, but you can't argue with their record success. They just ran into a few buzz-saws like the Yankees in their world series appearances.

maurice
06-24-2003, 05:07 PM
Valentin's current OBP is only 6 points lower than his career OBP and actually 9 points higher than what he posted last season. His HR totals are the main reason his OBP sucks. Most 185 lb. guys shouldn't swing for the fences. Calling himself a "switch hitter" is a cruel joke. His OBP is 80 pts lower from the right side. He's had 19+ errors every year since 1996, when he posted 37. He's not slumping; he's just bad. Great moustache, though.

Randar68
06-24-2003, 05:21 PM
Originally posted by gosox41
I suggest you read "Moneyball." It exmplains a lot of misperceptions about baseball with actual numbers and is also very entertaining.


I'm sorry, did I have a "Rip Van Winkle" nap??? When have the A's won a World Series under Billy "Jesus" Beane?

wassagstdu
06-24-2003, 05:28 PM
Originally posted by Gumshoe
If Konerko gets to play, he will come back. I guarantee it .
I seem to remember that Konerko had trouble getting off the ground when he first came to the Sox, until he got the chance to play more or less regularly. Don't remember which came first though. Anybody else think maybe getting Daubach made Konerko press at the beginning of the season, starting the slump which he can't get out of now that he is not playing regularly?

gosox41
06-24-2003, 05:40 PM
Originally posted by soxfan45
I'll tell you friend, I'd take the Braves string of playoff and world series appearances "anyday" over what we've had with the White Sox over the years. Over-rated, maybe, but you can't argue with their record success. They just ran into a few buzz-saws like the Yankees in their world series appearances.

I agree that the Braves run has been great. It's just a common misperception that they have done well in the playoffs, just as it's a misperception that they won because of their pitching and lost because of their offense.

Their pitching is their strength, but generally in a short playoff series anything can happen and the Braves have been hurt by this.

Check out who is leading the NL in runs scored this season.

Bob

gosox41
06-24-2003, 05:45 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
I'm sorry, did I have a "Rip Van Winkle" nap??? When have the A's won a World Series under Billy "Jesus" Beane?

They obviosuly haven't. But they have had a lot more success then the White Sox in the last few years. They've averaged 99 wins a season for the last 3 years. All this while having a $40 mill payroll or less. That to me is more amazing then the Yankmees buying their World Series over the last 6-7 years.

The Sox are not going to spend like the Yankees or Braves. Their best opportunity to win is to build a team like the A's have done. Every year they're in it and they don't have anywhere near the payroll of other teams. Their payroll was still about $20 mill less then the Angels last season and they win.

Don't get me wrong, I want to see the Sox win the World Series, but that's mostly for seeing them in the limelight. It's a lot more impressive for a team to be one of the leaders of the league in victories over a marathon season, especially when they do it in the toughest division in baseball especially while spending less then half of their competitors. And they're obviosuly nto a 1 year lucky team (ie see the 2000 White Sox).

Bob

Randar68
06-24-2003, 05:49 PM
Originally posted by gosox41
They obviosuly haven't. But they have had a lot more success then the White Sox in the last few years. They've averaged 99 wins a season for the last 3 years. All this while having a $40 mill payroll or less. That to me is more amazing then the Yankmees buying their World Series over the last 6-7 years.

The Sox are not going to spend like the Yankees or Braves. Their best opportunity to win is to build a team like the A's have done. Every year they're in it and they don't have anywhere near the payroll of other teams. Their payroll was still about $20 mill less then the Angels last season and they win.

Don't get me wrong, I want to see the Sox win the World Series, but that's mostly for seeing them in the limelight. It's a lot more impressive for a team to be one of the leaders of the league in victories over a marathon season, especially when they do it in the toughest division in baseball especially while spending less then half of their competitors. And they're obviosuly nto a 1 year lucky team (ie see the 2000 White Sox).

Bob



Arizona won a WS, because they were built for it. Oakland wins a lot of games because they are built for it. Oakland is similar to the Sox in this: They don't "manufacture" runs well.

You know what that means? Unless they shutout everyone in the playoffs, they will not make the WS yet again, let alone win it.

It is impressive that you can win that many games with a low payroll, but that doesn't get you a WS.

gosox41
06-24-2003, 06:28 PM
Originally posted by Randar68
Arizona won a WS, because they were built for it. Oakland wins a lot of games because they are built for it. Oakland is similar to the Sox in this: They don't "manufacture" runs well.

You know what that means? Unless they shutout everyone in the playoffs, they will not make the WS yet again, let alone win it.

It is impressive that you can win that many games with a low payroll, but that doesn't get you a WS.

For the record, during the 2002 playoffs to the Twins the A's scored 5.5 runs a game while the Twins averaged 5.4 runs per game. During the season the A's averaged 4.9 runs per game.

The scores to the games (in no particular order):

A's 9 Twins 1
A's 8 Twins 3
Twins 7 A's 5
Twins 11 A's 2
Twins 5 A's 4

Looks like the A's would have lost 2 games due to their pitching not pitching well. You can argue the 5-4 game, but I can make an argument for below average offense and below average pitching. If the pitching were good in the 7-5 loss, the A's would have won this particular playoff series as 5 runs is about what the A's averaged during the season.

My points:
1. The A's hitting was not the sole reason they lost. In fact, in 5 games the A's averaged more runs then they scored during the season while the pitching gave up more runs per game then they averaged giving up during the season.

2. It's a small sample size. I was hoping you'd make mention of this in the next post. Because this also proves the point that anything can happen in a short series.

Unless the playoff system is revamped (and I have no idea how) all that can be done is to analyze the numbers in the short series and make one's own conclusions. One conclusion that is hard to make is that it was the A's offense inability to "manufacture runs" that lost them the playoffs.

Bob