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View Full Version : Every time someone gets to 300 wins, it's predicted to be the last.


Nellie_Fox
06-14-2003, 12:25 AM
Once again, someone (Dave Van Dyke) predicts that this will be the last guy to 300 wins. (http://foxsports.lycos.com/content/view?contentId=1414832) This had been predicted every time someone has reached 300 for as long as I can remember. They said it when Early Wynn got there. Don Sutton told everybody he'd be the last. It will happen again, and again after that.

No, it's not easy. In fact it's very hard. But the reasons they cite for it becoming more difficult (higher pay killing the incentive to have long careers, hitters putting up bigger numbers, the five man rotation, etc.) are offset by the reasons that they can (better conditioning and medical treatment extending careers, higher pay giving incentive to extend careers, more use of relief pitchers extending careers.)

It will happen again. But I guess these guys have to come up with something to write about.

seventytwo
06-14-2003, 12:40 AM
Greg Maddux will get there. I think he needs 23 more wins (or something close to that.)

Glavine is next in line with something like 235 career wins---not sure he gets there. Unit won't get there (injuries, and late bloomer)

Mark Prior will win 512 games

FJA
06-14-2003, 12:42 AM
The thing I find most amazing about the Clemens hoopla is that it all comes five years after he was over the hill. Or at least, I think that's what someone told me then ...

MHOUSE
06-14-2003, 01:24 AM
Maddux is within range of 300 if he stays healthy a few more years. Glavine is a reach, he needs another 4-5 good years to get there. If Big Unit could have a late show like Clemens has had then he gets a shot, but I dunno if maybe that was the WS year. Prior could get there if he stays healthy. He's well on his way at age 22ish? It will happen again and continue to happen again everytime someone does. How could they say Clemens is last with Madduz very close? Stupid sports writers. When I get into journalism I promise not to be as crap as these jamokes.

Tragg
06-14-2003, 08:45 AM
With the ever-improving conditioning and the natural improvement of athletes, "longevity records" will always be attainable. Specific season records may not be (will anyone hit .400 again?).

ScottyTheSoxFan
06-14-2003, 10:28 AM
Originally posted by seventytwo
Mark Prior will win 512 games

thats all?

34 Inch Stick
06-14-2003, 11:23 AM
Jesse Orosco will get there when he is still pitching at the age of 65.

Until this year Buhrle was making nice progress towards the number. Oops.

Lip Man 1
06-14-2003, 01:44 PM
Maddux will get it and then ?????

Also I LOVED that remark about being "over the hill..."

Ah yes...Ron Schueler (and Dan Duquette who said Clemens' was in the "twlight of his career," when the Bosox let him go...)

Lip

Ol Aches & Pains
06-14-2003, 10:06 PM
Originally posted by Nellie_Fox
Once again, someone (Dave Van Dyke) predicts that this will be the last guy to 300 wins. (http://foxsports.lycos.com/content/view?contentId=1414832) This had been predicted every time someone has reached 300 for as long as I can remember. They said it when Early Wynn got there. Don Sutton told everybody he'd be the last. It will happen again, and again after that.

No, it's not easy. In fact it's very hard. But the reasons they cite for it becoming more difficult (higher pay killing the incentive to have long careers, hitters putting up bigger numbers, the five man rotation, etc.) are offset by the reasons that they can (better conditioning and medical treatment extending careers, higher pay giving incentive to extend careers, more use of relief pitchers extending careers.)

It will happen again. But I guess these guys have to come up with something to write about.

I suppose it will happen again, but every time it does, I marvel at the achievement. When you consider that to win 300 games, you have to average 20 wins a year for 15 years, or 15 wins a year for 20 years, it's pretty remarkable that anyone has done it.

My favorite pitcher of all time was Warren Spahn. I was lucky enough as a boy to have a dad who cared enough to make the drive up to Milwaukee several times each season to take me to the Braves games, and I saw Spahn pitch a handful of games in the latter part of his career. He won 363 games, the most of any left-hander in history, despite not winning his first game until age 25! He was so good for so long, it's unbelieveable. He threw his first no-hitter at age 39, and threw another one the next year. He went 23-7 in 1963 at age 42. And that's the key to winning 300, being able to pitch with undiminished skill at and beyond the age when 99% of pitchers have retired from the game.

Zednem700
06-14-2003, 11:52 PM
Originally posted by Lip Man 1
Maddux will get it and then ?????

Also I LOVED that remark about being "over the hill..."

Ah yes...Ron Schueler (and Dan Duquette who said Clemens' was in the "twlight of his career," when the Bosox let him go...)

Lip

I think Mussina has a chance. He's at 190 right now, which is more than Clemens had at the same age I believe.

doublem23
06-15-2003, 02:15 AM
Originally posted by ScottyTheSoxFan
thats all?

Only if he has some major slump years.

Nellie_Fox
06-15-2003, 02:18 AM
Originally posted by Ol Aches & Pains
My favorite pitcher of all time was Warren Spahn. I was lucky enough as a boy to have a dad who cared enough to make the drive up to Milwaukee several times each season to take me to the Braves games, and I saw Spahn pitch a handful of games in the latter part of his career. He won 363 games, the most of any left-hander in history, despite not winning his first game until age 25! He was so good for so long, it's unbelieveable. He threw his first no-hitter at age 39, and threw another one the next year. He went 23-7 in 1963 at age 42. And that's the key to winning 300, being able to pitch with undiminished skill at and beyond the age when 99% of pitchers have retired from the game. Not only that, but Spahn missed three years ('43, '44, '45) because of WWII. His career average was 17 wins a year, so add another 40 or 50 wins onto the 363.

Ol Aches & Pains
06-15-2003, 07:22 PM
Originally posted by Nellie_Fox
Not only that, but Spahn missed three years ('43, '44, '45) because of WWII. His career average was 17 wins a year, so add another 40 or 50 wins onto the 363.

Exactly, that's why he won his first game at age 25. He came up as a rookie with the Boston Braves in 1942, but had no record. His manager at the time, one Casey Stengel, told him he had no future in the big leauges.

kermittheefrog
06-15-2003, 11:54 PM
You really have to expect something weird to happen to Greg Maddux to say Clemens might be the last 300 game winner. I'd also say you have to predict something weird happening to all the great starting pitchers from now until, well the end of the world or the end of baseball. Probably the end of the world.

Nellie_Fox
06-16-2003, 02:45 AM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
You really have to expect something weird to happen to Greg Maddux to say Clemens might be the last 300 game winner. I'd also say you have to predict something weird happening to all the great starting pitchers from now until, well the end of the world or the end of baseball. Probably the end of the world. Exactly. Right now, there's some kid playing Legion ball, or Babe Ruth League, or Little League, who will win 300 games in the Major Leagues.

davenicholson
06-16-2003, 01:52 PM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
You really have to expect something weird to happen to Greg Maddux to say Clemens might be the last 300 game winner.

Like re-signing with the cubbies? Sorry, couldn't resist.