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SoxxoS
06-05-2003, 12:20 AM
As we bring another 2 months of hardfought, well managed baseball to a close, it is time for the trading to begin. Will it be an all out rebuilding (i.e. the Indians) or will it just be "reloading?" Isn't the saying- "Losing teams rebuild, Winning teams reload." We're obviously going with the rebuilding.

Players that have some value:
Loiaza
Colon
Koch
Jimenez
Ordonez
CLee
Thomas
Marte
Buerhle
Wunsch

Players that we couldn't unload if we tried-
Rick White
Paul Konerko
Flash Gordon

Players that we could/might be able to unload, but not get any worthwhile return-
Joe Crede
Joe Borchard
Jose Valentin
Gary Glover
Jon Garland
Danny Wright
Brian Daubach
Armando Rios
Tony Graffanino
Sandy Alomar
Josh Paul
David Sanders

Now, just because a player has value, doesn't mean he is tradable. For example, Frank Thomas. But looking at the players of value, I am NOT seeing a lot of tradable talent. Our minor league system SUCKS. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered-
Should we trade Loiaza, even if we can get him at only 4 million next year? We could get tremendous value for him.

Colon should be as good as gone, even though he shouldn't be. We should sign him to a long term deal, but since the Sox probably won't realize that starting pitching isn't the problem, they will let him go. Plu$ JR doe$n't believe in long term deal$.

Second baseman that can hit like Jimenez are hard to come by, but can you live with his defense? I don't know how mcuh you can get for him.

Unless Buerhle wins a couple games in a row, you can't trade him. I don't know if he should or shouldn't be dealt, all I know is he has pitched an awful lot of innings at his age. I am sure St. Louis would give us a nice package of players for him.

I used to not like CLee, but now I really like him. He hustles and looks like he is having some semblence of fun out there. When he gets on a roll, he is very dangerous. He improved out in left, but is still a liability. If I though Borchard was good enough to take his spot one day, I would say deal him. But, now, I don't know. Depends what you can get for him.

Koch needs to go on a scoreless streak, and come the trading deadline, somebody is going to be in need for a closer. Could still get something for him.

Then, the real DIRE question..do you trade Maggs? I say absolutely not, but every option has to be looked at. You can get some big time players for him, and that is what we need. I love Maggs, however, he doesn't hit well in the clutch and hit into heaps of double plays. Plus, the most important factor when you are dealing with JR, the $$$ reasoning. How much longer are we going to have him, anyway?

Wunsch and Marte aren't worth trading and who knows if Frank Thomas is tradable. Probably not. The rest of the guys listed are impossible to trade or not likely to get any worthwhile ROI.

Thoughts, comments?

jeremyb1
06-05-2003, 01:05 AM
if we decide to tear it all down you have to keep the relatively young guys with ability that don't make much money. that means the following all stay:

crede
jimenez
olivo
wright
garland
borchard
sanders
glover
buehrle

that would leave us with a 3B, 2B (maybe even SS), C, OF, three starters and two releivers currently on the major league roster that would remain in the lineup next season. in addition to those guys you can also most likely throw the majority of the group of ginter, munoz, rauch, almonte, ring, cotts, harris, stewart, and rowand into the mix for next season.

loaiza, maggs, marte, and carlos aren't particularly young but loaiza has the cheap option (considering his performance) for next season, maggs is a great player, marte is not yet arbitration elligible, and carlos is a solid player. therefore, the way i would play it with those three guys is that you can go either way. if you think you're getting good value for them you let them go since they won't be around a really long time. if you don't, you don't have to trade them. they can still help you a lot for some time even if they're not as young as the players listed above. with maggs however we might have to pay 3 or 4 million of his salary next season or no one will want to take his salary so i'm not sure it makes sense to deal him. carlos would also probably require cash to get a deal done. kelly wunsch and tony g probably also fit into the above category with the obvious exception that they're nowhere near as valuable to the club as the other three guys. at the same time though, they're not owed a ton of money.

the caveat is that if you do trade these players for prospects they have to be guys in the high minors that will be ready to make a contribution by '05. the young core of guys we have listed above is pretty strong so anything you get in trades you want to be able to add to that young core. guys that are 3 years away won't be helpful at this point even if they are really good prospects. we'll lose the young core above if we go through another huge rebuilding process and the fans won't stand for several more losing seasons so it needs to be a team that can compete in the near future.

i would say at this point that frank is untradable because of his 5 and 10 rights (unless he waived them in his new deal i can't remember) and paully is untradable because of the size of his new contract and his performance this season. koch most likely fits in the same boat not because he's been terrible but just because he hasn't been outstanding and most teams don't want to pay their closer nearly 6 million these days.

daubach, rios, white, gordon, colon, alomar, and valentin will all be free agents next season. with daubach, rios, white, gordon, alomar and valentin if we decide to tear it down i'd pay their salaries and trade them just to open up playing time since we won't receive anything in the way of draft picks if they sign with another club. with colon you have to see how much you can get if you start a bidding war at the deadline. if its not a lot then you have to keep him and take the two additional draft picks in the first 40 picks in next year's draft.

SoxxoS
06-05-2003, 01:20 AM
So basically we are looking at-

1B-Konerko
2B-Jimenez
SS-Unknown
3B-Crede
LF-Lee
CF-Borchard
RF-Ordonez?
C-Olivo
DH-Thomas

I am sorry, but that lineup is way to similar to the one that is currently 3rd to last in hitting in all of MLB. Something needs to be done with Konerko, he is KILLING this team. Borchard is going to need more time in the minors it seems. I think he is best suited for a corner spot, anyway. He needs to shorten that swing down. You can't count on him next year, although their might be no choice. Crede needs to be evaluated at a later date, I am willing to let him play for a couple more months, but this slump has been going on WAY too long. CLee might need to roll out for a younger, faster LF who can play defense. Something needs to change, b/c this lineup/defense isnt working.

Rotation of-

Loaiza
Buerhle
Garland
Wright
???

OK, that isn't going to work, either. The starting rotation is fine this year, the rotation above needs a guy similar to Colon to anchor it. I have come to believe that Wright is better suited for the bullpen and Garland is nothing more than a 5th starter. I also want no part of Rauch or Stewart in the starting rotation next year. Cotts is the only one I would consider.

Bullpen-
Koch?
Marte
Wunsch
Glover
Wright?
Sanders?

Bullpen is kind of an enigma, but by far the least of our worries come 2004.

All in all we need more speed. We need a left handed bat or two. We need guys that play defense, which co-insides with that "speed" comment. Problem is, I don't have confidence that Kenny Williams can get this done.

GASHWOUND
06-05-2003, 01:28 AM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
As we bring another 2 months of hardfought, well managed baseball to a close, it is time for the trading to begin. Will it be an all out rebuilding (i.e. the Indians) or will it just be "reloading?" Isn't the saying- "Losing teams rebuild, Winning teams reload." We're obviously going with the rebuilding.

Players that have some value:
Loiaza
Colon
Koch
Jimenez
Ordonez
CLee
Thomas
Marte
Buerhle
Wunsch

Players that we couldn't unload if we tried-
Rick White
Paul Konerko
Flash Gordon

Players that we could/might be able to unload, but not get any worthwhile return-
Joe Crede
Joe Borchard
Jose Valentin
Gary Glover
Jon Garland
Danny Wright
Brian Daubach
Armando Rios
Tony Graffanino
Sandy Alomar
Josh Paul
David Sanders



Hmm, actually believe it or not their are teams that would take Gordon in a second...He has a pretty high SO to innings pitched ratio and alot of teams will take a Chance with Gordon...White? Ummm, I think he can be a better pitcher later in the season, but we won't be able to trade him for anything worthwhile as of right now.
Right now Konerko wouldn't fetch a bag of baseballs.

On the list of Players that we could/might be able to unload, but not get any worthwhile return- I think STILL Garland would get someone decent if packaged lets say with Gordon, White or whoever. Garland will have his clunkers this season but will also have a bunch of great to quality starts this year also..As in past season have shown.
And he's only 23 years old. Teams will jump all over that.

The others on that list we'll gonna have to try and package, we won't get anyone for them individually.

We're screwed.. :angry:

MarkEdward
06-05-2003, 01:46 AM
SoxxoS:

That line-up you wrote out will probably be our line-up next year. I'll look on the optimistic side, though: Crede, Borchard, and Olivo will be much better next year. Konerko will still be below average, but he'll hit much better than this year.

As for our tradeable commodities, I think we only have two: Jose Valentin and Bartolo Colon. Valentin isn't *that* bad of a defender, and still can hit righties. I would keep Colon and take the compensation picks at the end of the year.

I'm sure the A's would love to have Thomas if we paid most of his salary. Lee has given up walking, but I think the A's would take any kin of hitter to fill their pathetic outfield.

Everyone else should be kept. Olivo, Borchard, Crede, and Jimenez are our future. Ordonez is worth more than any prospects we'd get for him. Nobody would want Daubach, Alomar, or Rios; they all can leave after this year.

As for pitching, I still wouldn't trade Buehrle, poor year withstanding. Loaiza is a bargain for the numbers he's putting up, keep him. Management won't give up on Garland and Wright, they'll be in the three and four spots next year. Rauch will take over the five spot.

Bullpen: Koch, Glover, and Marte are probably all coming back next year. Ginter will join them, maybe David Sanders. Gordon might be dealt at the deadline; White is crap.

Well, that's my little outlook for the future.

jeremyb1
06-05-2003, 02:16 AM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
So basically we are looking at-

1B-Konerko
2B-Jimenez
SS-Unknown
3B-Crede
LF-Lee
CF-Borchard
RF-Ordonez?
C-Olivo
DH-Thomas

I am sorry, but that lineup is way to similar to the one that is currently 3rd to last in hitting in all of MLB. Something needs to be done with Konerko, he is KILLING this team. Borchard is going to need more time in the minors it seems. I think he is best suited for a corner spot, anyway. He needs to shorten that swing down. You can't count on him next year, although their might be no choice. Crede needs to be evaluated at a later date, I am willing to let him play for a couple more months, but this slump has been going on WAY too long. CLee might need to roll out for a younger, faster LF who can play defense. Something needs to change, b/c this lineup/defense isnt working.

yeah. i wouldn't feel too confident about that team next year either but in reality we only really have so many options. if we're going into a rebuilding mode we can't trade our young players. i can't see jr bringing in veterans. also, despite this season, guys like crede and borchard do have legitimate talent.

if we want to get really creative we might be able to move konerko for someone else's problem but sadly our best bet is probably to just sit back and hope he returns to form. this is what happens when you sign two 1B/DH types to long term contracts on a team filled with 1B/DH types. not only can we not move paully but we can't improve our defense by moving someone like carlos to 1B or DH either.

Dadawg_77
06-05-2003, 09:44 AM
Originally posted by jeremyb1
yeah. i wouldn't feel too confident about that team next year either but in reality we only really have so many options. if we're going into a rebuilding mode we can't trade our young players. i can't see jr bringing in veterans. also, despite this season, guys like crede and borchard do have legitimate talent.

if we want to get really creative we might be able to move konerko for someone else's problem but sadly our best bet is probably to just sit back and hope he returns to form. this is what happens when you sign two 1B/DH types to long term contracts on a team filled with 1B/DH types. not only can we not move paully but we can't improve our defense by moving someone like carlos to 1B or DH either.

Konerko for Griffey.

xil357
06-05-2003, 11:17 AM
Originally posted by Dadawg_77
Konerko for Griffey.

This is just crazy enough to work. Based on talent the Reds never would agree to this deal, but on the basis of money left on contracts the Reds might approve but JR wouldn't. Too bad, because Griffey might rebound with a return to the AL and fresh start away from the hometown spotlight and would play a strong left-handed CF for the Sox, while Konerko could clear his head and feast on NL pitching. It would solve both the Sox (need CF) and the Reds (too many) outfield situations, too.

SoxxoS
06-05-2003, 12:02 PM
Originally posted by xil357
while Konerko could clear his head and feast on NL pitching

I was with you until there. :smile:

harwar
06-05-2003, 01:18 PM
We are stuck with Konerko.All we can do is hope he starts hitting again someday.Thomas is not going anywhere this year.I figure someone will invite him to SP next year but i expect hes' done after this season.Olivo looks to be a bright spot.He reminds me of ivan rodriguez when he first came up with texas except he can handle pitchers.We really need a ss & cf.I played cf in school(i'm ready for the call)Lee will probably be moved for prospects sometime this year.It wouldn't surprise me at all if Maggs was gone before next year.What a mess.

rahulsekhar
06-05-2003, 02:21 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS


Players that have some value:
Loiaza
Colon
Koch
Jimenez
Ordonez
CLee
Thomas
Marte
Buerhle
Wunsch

Players that we couldn't unload if we tried-
Rick White
Paul Konerko
Flash Gordon

Players that we could/might be able to unload, but not get any worthwhile return-
Joe Crede
Joe Borchard
Jose Valentin
Gary Glover
Jon Garland
Danny Wright
Brian Daubach
Armando Rios
Tony Graffanino
Sandy Alomar
Josh Paul
David Sanders



Here's a thought that could actually work: Deal Crede+Konerko+Rauch+Garland to Florida for Lowell+Burnett+Pierre/AGonzalez. Sox get a stud 3B, a good pitcher (in a year) & either a CF or an SS CF who plays good D and has pretty good O as well.
Next year, go with a lineup of
1 - Jimenez (2B)
2 - C.Lee (1B)
3 - Thomas (DH)
4 - Mags (RF)
5 - Lowell (3B)
6 - Borchard (LF)
7 - Gonzalez (SS)
8 - Olivo (C)
9 - CF with speed & good D

If you get Pierre instead of Gonzo, he hits 2d, call up Hummel (or other defensive wiz @ SS) to hit 9th, & move everyone else down accordingly.

The catch: JR has to be willing to extend himself a bit financially with Lowell up for arbitration after next year. But that lineup immediately makes us a MUCH better team, so hopefully the box office impact is solid enough that we can handle it. Otherwise, we've got tradeable assets to deal for youth.

FLA does it because they get a potential cornerstone 3B and 2 young SPs. Koney gets to go back to the NL (I believe Derrek Lee's up for arbitration as well, no?).

SoxxoS
06-05-2003, 02:32 PM
Originally posted by rahulsekhar
Here's a thought that could actually work: Deal Crede+Konerko+Rauch+Garland to Florida for Lowell+Burnett+Pierre/AGonzalez. Sox get a stud 3B, a good pitcher (in a year) & either a CF or an SS CF who plays good D and has pretty good O as well.
Next year, go with a lineup of
1 - Jimenez (2B)
2 - C.Lee (1B)
3 - Thomas (DH)
4 - Mags (RF)
5 - Lowell (3B)
6 - Borchard (LF)
7 - Gonzalez (SS)
8 - Olivo (C)
9 - CF with speed & good D

If you get Pierre instead of Gonzo, he hits 2d, call up Hummel (or other defensive wiz @ SS) to hit 9th, & move everyone else down accordingly.

The catch: JR has to be willing to extend himself a bit financially with Lowell up for arbitration after next year. But that lineup immediately makes us a MUCH better team, so hopefully the box office impact is solid enough that we can handle it. Otherwise, we've got tradeable assets to deal for youth.

FLA does it because they get a potential cornerstone 3B and 2 young SPs. Koney gets to go back to the NL (I believe Derrek Lee's up for arbitration as well, no?).

I don't know about that exact deal, but Florida is a team I would LOVE to deal with. I would love to get Juan Pierre and Mike Lowel on this team somehow. In terms of AJ Burnett, you can't trade anyone on the DL. Plus, he had Tommy John, and although the pitchers can come back in a year, they don't really return to form for at least two years. Look at Kris Benson and Kerry Wood for a few examples.
I am not sure if anyone really wants Rauch for anything of value. He isnt pitching well in AAA, and he has to chalked up as just a injury casuality until he proves otherwise. He shouldnt be counted on at all until he proves he is back. I dont want to go into next year with his name anywhere NEAR the rotation.
Switching CLee to 1B is actually a great idea. He played 3B in the minors and I am sure he can play an adaquate 1st base. But, lets face it, although improved, he is still a liabilty in the outfield. What the Sox fail to realize is that you need a CF that can take the pressure off of the corner outfielders (I.E. Chris Singleton) so the team has some semblence of defense in the outfield. Right now, ( and in the past two years) we are one of the only teams in baseball to have no speed in the outfield.

rahulsekhar
06-05-2003, 02:36 PM
Hey - I'd do the deal without Burnett. Think they'd go for Garland+Crede+Koney+Prospect OF for Lowell+Pierre/Gonzo? That way we can keep our pitching prospects. Or throw in Wright if JR's willing to resign Colon. Then they get 2 young pitchers and we go with Colon+Buehrle+Loaiza+FA+prospect as our rotation. Improved D = improved pitching.

SoxxoS
06-05-2003, 02:44 PM
Originally posted by rahulsekhar
Hey - I'd do the deal without Burnett. Think they'd go for Garland+Crede+Koney+Prospect OF for Lowell+Pierre/Gonzo? That way we can keep our pitching prospects. Or throw in Wright if JR's willing to resign Colon. Then they get 2 young pitchers and we go with Colon+Buehrle+Loaiza+FA+prospect as our rotation. Improved D = improved pitching.

First off, "If JR's willing to resign Colon should be in deep-pink, b/c that is a pipedream.
Second, I don't know how much Lowell is making, but I dont know if they can afford to acquire Konerko. If they are about equal, I would make that trade in a heartbeat. This slump Crede is very scary. Good players don't go in slumps for this long. He knows what his problem is, but he hasn't been able to correct it in more than a month. That is scary too me. Lowell would be a wonderful fit on the Sox. Plus, you get a guy that can play defense in center field. Then as stated before, and move CLee to first and Borchard to left. That isnt a bad outfield.

rahulsekhar
06-05-2003, 02:46 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
First off, "If JR's willing to resign Colon should be in deep-pink, b/c that is a pipedream.
Second, I don't know how much Lowell is making, but I dont know if they can afford to acquire Konerko. If they are about equal, I would make that trade in a heartbeat. This slump Crede is very scary. Good players don't go in slumps for this long. He knows what his problem is, but he hasn't been able to correct it in more than a month. That is scary too me. Lowell would be a wonderful fit on the Sox. Plus, you get a guy that can play defense in center field. Then as stated before, and move CLee to first and Borchard to left. That isnt a bad outfield.

Lowell's current salary isn't the issue, it's that he's eligible for arbitration after next year. Koney's signed to a reasnable deal for a few years, plus they get Crede who was a hot prospect, plays decent D (despite his missing the bag occasionally), and can come around at the plate.

SoxxoS
06-05-2003, 03:33 PM
Originally posted by rahulsekhar
Lowell's current salary isn't the issue, it's that he's eligible for arbitration after next year. Koney's signed to a reasnable deal for a few years, plus they get Crede who was a hot prospect, plays decent D (despite his missing the bag occasionally), and can come around at the plate.

Konerko's salary is not reasonable if he is hitting under the Mendoza line. Matter of fact, it isn't reasonable unless he is hitting .280 with 12 homers and 35 RBI's right now. That is reasonable.

xil357
06-05-2003, 04:08 PM
Originally posted by SoxxoS
This slump Crede is very scary. Good players don't go in slumps for this long. He knows what his problem is, but he hasn't been able to correct it in more than a month. That is scary too me.

During his first full major league season Ventura had something like an 0-for-41 slump and everyone wanted to dump him. I don't think I need to say anything more about Robin. Crede hit well over 200 at-bats after he was called up last season.

Konerko, on the other hand, is in his fifth full season, and basically has been in this slump since the 2002 All-Star game.

Perhaps I am too patient, but I still believe it's probably early to pronounce either one of them as a bust or to consider trading them away. However, looking at what we have and what we need, it does not make sense to trade away a player who plays a position where we do not have a surlpus (3B). It makes more sense to trade a player at a position where we do have a surplus (1B). It also makes sense to trade only for players at positions where you have a hole. For the Sox, these positions are SS and CF. Trading for a CF allows you to move Borchard to left and makes Lee expendable, too.

If you subscribe to the re-load theory over the inferior and infuriating re-build theory, then you deal to improve your core.

This is who the Sox should be looking to trade in order to acquire a CF and a better defensive SS, preferbaly both batting left-handed:

Konerko
Lee
Valentin

In a perfect world, the Sox trade away these three and if they can't acquire a CF and SS in such trades, make a run a Beltran and Tejada over the offseason (aren't both free agents?). Now imagine this hypothetical lineup in 2004:

1B Frank
2B Miles
3B Crede
SS Tejada
C Olivo
DH Jiminez
RF Maggs
CF Beltran
LF Borchard

Outside of Frank you have decent speed and good defense all around, and there is a better left-right balance.

Thank you. I will now step down off my soap box and put down the crack pipe.