PDA

View Full Version : Koch vs Foulke watch : 2K3


JUGGERNAUT
05-18-2003, 10:51 AM
We all should know by now that Koch has dominated Foulke in 3 primary statisical categories over the last 4 yrs:
# of saves, # of scoreless ip, # of scoreless appearances

This has led to Koch having a much smaller distribution of "runs against" over 162 games than Foulke. For ex: Koch gave up 24er over 10 gms vs 2 teams in 2K3, but then surrendered just 10er over 67 gms vs all others.

We likewise know that Foulke has started off good while Koch stated off pretty crappy in 2K3.

So let's see where they stand right now:


scoreless appearances:
Koch 14/20, Foulke 14/19
scoreless ip:
Koch 13/17.1, Foulke 16.1/22.2

05/29 scoreless appearances:
Koch 18/24, Foulke 18/23
scoreless ip:
Koch 19/22.1, Foulke 21.1/27.1


I give it a few more weeks before Koch has the edge in both.
A closer is a SITUATIONAL position. Thus stats pertaining to that SITUATIONAL position are more relevant than others.

I will be updating this thread on a weekly basis so you can see the change in the level of their performance.

WinningUgly!
05-18-2003, 10:56 AM
Very interesting.

jeremyb1
05-18-2003, 07:33 PM
that's interesting but i'm not sure there are two many situations where giving up 4 runs rarely is better than giving up one run somewhat more often. even if the pitcher blows the lead, the team can still have a chance to come back if the game is tied or only down by one run. it would seem to me that unless a closer gives up many of his earned runs in only a few different outings (as opposed to six already by koch) or in non-save opportunities, era is the best stat to go by.

boog_alou
05-20-2003, 07:50 AM
Originally posted by JUGGERNAUT
A closer is a SITUATIONAL position. Thus stats pertaining to that SITUATIONAL position are more relevant than others.
Yes, a closer is a situational position. So, why does your analysis not take into account SITUATIONS? For a closer, wouldn't Saves and Blown Saves be a relevant stat? I find that you conveniently ignore it.

With regard to oddly limiting your analysis to scoreless ip and scoreless appearances, I will cut-and-paste the words of another poster discussing your odd fetish for these stats:

Situation A: Billy Koch comes in for the eighth inning of a 15-0 game (Sox are losing). He throws a 1-2-3 inning, retiring the side.

Situation B: Top of the ninth, Oakland up 3-1. Keith Foulke come in and surrenders a home run. Score now 3-2. He then strikes out the side, ending the ball game. A's win.

By your logic, Koch had the better game. My point is that you can't pick and choose stats to fit your argument. Foulke still leads Koch in K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and K/BB.

I will also add that Foulke also leads Koch in ERA, WHIP and OPS against. This is true both for the last three years and for this year. Foulke>Koch (by quite a bit).

Iguana775
05-20-2003, 11:06 AM
I'd rather have Foulke.

kermittheefrog
05-20-2003, 11:25 AM
Originally posted by JUGGERNAUT
We all should know by now that Koch has dominated Foulke in 3 primary statisical categories over the last 4 yrs:
# of saves, # of scoreless ip, # of scoreless appearances

This has led to Koch having a much smaller distribution of "runs against" over 162 games than Foulke. For ex: Koch gave up 24er over 10 gms vs 2 teams in 2K3, but then surrendered just 10er over 67 gms vs all others.

We likewise know that Foulke has started off good while Koch stated off pretty crappy in 2K3.

So let's see where they stand right now:

scoreless appearances:
Koch 13/19 (68.4%), Foulke 12/17 (70.6%)
scoreless ip:
Koch 12/16.1 (74.5%), Foulke 13.1/19.2 (68.2%)

I give it a few more weeks before Koch has the edge in both.
A closer is a SITUATIONAL position. Thus stats pertaining to that SITUATIONAL position are more relevant than others.

I will be updating this thread on a weekly basis so you can see the change in the level of their performance.

How is it better to be the guy more likely to give up 4 runs? If you allow one run in a save situation you're not going to lose the game. If you're up by 2 or 3 runs, still a save situation you'll win the game. If you come in for a save and you give up 4 runs your team is down, maybe loses.

boog_alou
05-20-2003, 11:33 AM
Originally posted by kermittheefrog
How is it better to be the guy more likely to give up 4 runs? If you allow one run in a save situation you're not going to lose the game. If you're up by 2 or 3 runs, still a save situation you'll win the game. If you come in for a save and you give up 4 runs your team is down, maybe loses.
Excellent point. Foulke gets the Saves, period. He doesn't put a lot of guys on base, doesn't let many runs score. He gets the job done and he has the stats to prove it...much better stats than Koch.

JUGGERNAUT
05-22-2003, 03:37 PM
What matters the most is how many appearances by a closer result in team wins.

Usually this will be the closer who has the smaller distribution of runs over games played.

Now if you don't believe that, then please counter with a stats showing otherwise.
If you can't I think that's speaks volumes for the assertion.

JUGGERNAUT
05-22-2003, 03:41 PM
Originally posted by boog_alou
Yes, a closer is a situational position. So, why does your analysis not take into account SITUATIONS? For a closer, wouldn't Saves and Blown Saves be a relevant stat?

I did that one over on ESPN.
Koch has 50% more saves than Foulke in that period.
Koch has less losses than Foulke in that period.
Their save % is almost identical.

MetalliSox
05-22-2003, 03:42 PM
:threadsucks

Shoulda, woulda, coulda. Foulke is gone, guys. Time to deal with it.

boog_alou
05-22-2003, 04:01 PM
Originally posted by JUGGERNAUT
Koch has 50% more saves than Foulke in that period.
Koch has less losses than Foulke in that period.
Their save % is almost identical.
Koch's Save total reflects the greater number of Save opportunities he's had.

If you've got two closers who save about the same percentage of games, I'll take the one with the better ERA, WHIP, OPS against, K/9 and K:BB every time. (By the way, that pitcher with the better stats is Foulke).

Blueprint1
05-22-2003, 04:09 PM
I am sick of this too. We are crying over spilled milk here.

boog_alou
05-22-2003, 04:20 PM
Originally posted by Blueprint1
I am sick of this too. We are crying over spilled milk here.
Actually, JUGGERNAUT isn't crying over spilt milk. He's trying to craft an argument that milk spilt all over the floor is actually better than milk in a glass.

fquaye149
05-22-2003, 07:19 PM
yeah koch is really horrible these days.how's he been his last 3 or 4 outings? which way is the wind blowing today? cuz that probably determines how many of you feel about any given ball player.

koch will be fine. what in the past tells you he shouldn't pick it back up? do you think colon's gonna be a .600 winning pct? do you think buehrle's gonna lose more than he wins? do you think rick white.....well let's skip that one. koch might not be an eric gagne, john smoltz, or hell, even a keith foulke but he's gonna help us more than he hurts us most likely. and how many of you were singing foulke's praises when he was here? let's go back and look at the old posts after the yankees game last year.

Tragg
05-23-2003, 07:48 AM
Closing is situational, but scoreless innings don't tell the story unless you include all runs allowed by the pitcher, not just runs charged against the pitcher's era.

Dadawg_77
05-23-2003, 08:56 AM
The debate of Koch vs Foulk is just teh catalyst here. The main issue is how do judge the preformance of a reliever. JUGGERNAUT has one system and other have another system, now the debate is whose more accuratly reflects who has a better preformance.

For Inherited Runs Prevented stat over at BP

Koch is -0.8
Foulke is -0.2

Inherited Runs Per Appearance

Koch 0.25
Foulke 0.21

Expected Inherited Runs per Game.
Koch 0.09
Foulke 0.04

Per BP Expect Inheriter Runs per Game is the number of runners inherited by the reliever who would be expected to score, divided by the number of appearances by the reliever. This number gives a sense of the difficulty (in terms of preventing runs) of the average appearance the reliever made.

The expected number of inherited runners the reliever prevented from scoring. If this number is positive, the reliever is chopping points off his teammates' RAs; if it's negative, he's adding points to his teammates' RAs. It is calculated by looking at the runners on base when the reliever enters the game, figuring out how many would be expected to score given their location on the bases and the number of outs, and comparing that number to (1) the number of inherited runners who actually did score, plus (2) if any of those inherited runners were still on base when the reliever left the game, how many would be expected to score from that state. The formula for a reliever's IRP for a game is

(EIR(sS,P)-EIR(sF, P)-IR) / pe(P)
where


EIR(s,P) is the number of runners that (1) the reliever inherited and (2) are currently on base in state s, who would be expected to score starting from bases/outs state s in park P,

sS is the bases/outs state when the reliever entered the game,

sF is the bases/outs state when the reliever left the game
(EIR(sF) is automatically 0 if the reliever doesn't leave in the same inning he started),

IR is the number of inherited runners that scored while the reliever was in the game, and

pe(P) is the park effect for P.

JUGGERNAUT
05-29-2003, 09:52 PM
05/29
scoreless appearances:
Koch 18/24, Foulke 18/23
scoreless ip:
Koch 19/22.1, Foulke 21.1/27.1

But Koch is looking pretty good of late as well! We got him signed for 2K4, whereas the A's will be saying sayonara to Keith after 2K3.

Tragg
05-29-2003, 10:38 PM
[i]

[
I give it a few more weeks before Koch has the edge in both.
A closer is a SITUATIONAL position. Thus stats pertaining to that SITUATIONAL position are more relevant than others.

I will be updating this thread on a weekly basis so you can see the change in the level of their performance. [/B]

What is your definition of a scoreless appearance? It includes inherited runners, I take it?

gosox41
05-30-2003, 01:28 PM
Originally posted by JUGGERNAUT
05/29
scoreless appearances:
Koch 18/24, Foulke 18/23
scoreless ip:
Koch 19/22.1, Foulke 21.1/27.1

But Koch is looking pretty good of late as well! We got him signed for 2K4, whereas the A's will be saying sayonara to Keith after 2K3.


And they'll probably get a first round pick when they lose Foulke and draft another stud pitcher. I'm sure they that was part of their plan the whole time.

Unlike some GM's who prefer to trade All-Star second basemen for rag arm AAA pitching.

Bob

boog_alou
06-03-2003, 02:12 PM
I wonder why Juggernaut hasn't been updating the Koch-Foulke comparison. I think it might have to do with Foulke's 14 saves, tiny ERA and miniscule WHIP. And of course, Koch is still off track.

boog_alou
06-03-2003, 02:45 PM
Originally posted by JUGGERNAUT
We got Koch signed for 2K4, whereas the A's will be saying sayonara to Keith after 2K3.
At this point, I don't know that having Koch signed to a guaranteed $6.375 million contract for 2004 is a good thing for the Sox. Sounds more like an albatross which will hang around the Sox necks, eating up money which would be better spent filling a more pressing need for the Sox.

gosox41
06-03-2003, 08:52 PM
Originally posted by boog_alou
At this point, I don't know that having Koch signed to a guaranteed $6.375 million contract for 2004 is a good thing for the Sox. Sounds more like an albatross which will hang around the Sox necks, eating up money which would be better spent filling a more pressing need for the Sox.

I never understood the logic of trading a good pitcher for a statistically worse one, then signing the worse one to a 2 year contract.

And people wonder why this team doesn't win anything and why I can't stand KW.

BTW, anyone see the Rolaids Relief Standings. Foulke is in second place in the AL. For some reason Billy Koch wasn't listed in the top 10.

Bob